Mystics & Statistics

The last Antietam presentation via Zoom is scheduled this Wednesday (11 Feb.) at 7:00 PM EST

The Antietam 8 presentation is scheduled this Wednesday at 7:00 PM on 11 February. The Zoom link is here:

11 February: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89148411099?pwd=M6XcmIbVmbsovbE0bVGjespUzZI75G.1

Antietam 1 and 2 are on our YouTube channel.

Antietam 3 – 6 have been recorded and will be posted up soon.

Dr. James Slaughter did give a tour of the battlefield at the last HAAC. For the upcoming HAAC he will be doing Fredericksburg. The link for the Fifth HAAC is here: The Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 – 22 October 2026 – The Dupuy Institute

The Event Brite page for it is here: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 20, 2026 at 8:00 AM | Eventbrite

The Siege of Mariupol has been released

The Siege of Mariupol has been released in the U.S. today. It has been available in the UK since November 27, 2025. This is the second book in a series on the Russo-Ukrainian War. It was co-authored with Stefan Korshak. Stefan was an OSCE ceasefire observer in Mariupol for seven years.

We do have three other books in the works for 2026, one on the Battle of Kursk (it is the biggest battle of World War II), and two more on the Russo-Ukrainian War. More details on these later.

Last week to pre-order The Siege of Mariupol

The Siege of Mariupol is being released on 30 January and will be available on Amazon.com: The Siege of Mariupol: The Azovstal Steel Plant and Ukraine’s Battle for Survival: Lawrence, Christopher A, Korshak, Stefan: 9781399034203: Amazon.com: Books

They do offer a pre-release sale price of $34.95 (13% discount) if you order before 30 January. If you are thinking about buying, now would be a good time.

It is already available in the UK.

Last two Antietam presentations are scheduled this Wednesday (the 28th) and Wednesday after next (11 Feb.)

The Antietam 7 and Antietam 8 presentations are scheduled this Wednesday at 7:00 PM on 28 January and Wednesday after next at 7:00 PM on 11 February. The links for them are here:

28 January: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/84169372630?pwd=IvSdmZa3dVGPrMFKanNjNeFa9Y1Sf2.1

11 February: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89148411099?pwd=M6XcmIbVmbsovbE0bVGjespUzZI75G.1

Antietam 1 and 2 are on our YouTube channel.

Antietam 3 – 6 have been recorded and will be posted up soon.

Dr. James Slaughter did give a tour of the battlefield at the last HAAC. For the upcoming HAAC he will be doing Fredericksburg. The link for the Fifth HAAC is here: The Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 – 22 October 2026 – The Dupuy Institute

The Event Brite page for it is here: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 20, 2026 at 8:00 AM | Eventbrite

Last two Antietam presentations are scheduled this Wednesday (the 21st) and Wednesday after next (4 Feb.)

The Antietam 7 and Antietam 8 presentations are scheduled this Wednesday at 7:00 PM on 21 January and Wednesday after next at &:00 PM on 4 February. The links for them are here:

21 January: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/84169372630?pwd=IvSdmZa3dVGPrMFKanNjNeFa9Y1Sf2.1

4 February: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89148411099?pwd=M6XcmIbVmbsovbE0bVGjespUzZI75G.1

Antietam 1 and 2 are on our YouTube channel.

Antietam 3 – 6 have been recorded and will be posted up soon.

Dr. James Slaughter did give a tour of the battlefield at the last HAAC. For the upcoming HAAC he will be doing Fredericksburg. The link for the Fifth HAAC is here: The Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 – 22 October 2026 – The Dupuy Institute

The Event Brite page for it is here: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 20, 2026 at 8:00 AM | Eventbrite

Four Friendly Fire Reports

I did a blog past month fishing around for what else has been done on Friendly Fire: A Friendly Fire Discussion – The Dupuy Institute.

As a result of that post asking about where else had been done, Paul Syms (UK), a former Dstl analyst, sent me the following five files. With his permission they are posted here:

First is Chuck Hawkins’ 1991 paper on the issue: “Friendly Fire Casualties: A Vietnam War Perspective”. This effort I was aware of.

C F Hawkins 1991 RVN FF

Next is Gene Visco’s 1995 presentation at ISMOR in the UK: “Friendly Fire Data and Analysis.” This effort I was also familiar with. I had a copy of different briefing from him. At one point was in my lower right hand desk drawer. I probably have a copy of that briefing somewhere in my files.

Visco 1995 Friendly fire 12 ISMOR

Chuck Hawkins and Gene Visco really pushed to get a proper analysis of the subject. I was aware of their efforts. They were unable to get a proper study funded by the U.S. DOD. Chuck Hawkins was the former VP of DMSI (Trevor Dupuy’s company before TDI). Gene Visco was with DUSA (OR) until it was shut down.

Next were two British efforts I was not familiar with, one from 2006 and one a study dated 2008 done by Paul Syms:

Gadsden & Outteridge 2006 Friendly fire HA 23 ISMOR V1.0

Syms 2008 25 ISMOR FF HA slides V1.0

Syms 2008 25 ISMOR FF HA paper V1.0

This last one is presented as both slides (34 slides) and an 8-page paper. It is pretty extensive. The slides are definitely worth flipping through.

I particularly like slides 28-29: Database size, and also the next two slides. In parallels some of the points I made in my one Phalanx article: Phalanx Article: What We Have Learned from Doing Historical Analysis – The Dupuy Institute

Stefan Korshak and the Siege of Mariupol book

While I am fairly well known in the historical analysis and military history community, my co-author of the Mariupol book is not. This video on a panel on the trauma of Ukraine’s children does provide a brief introduction of him and the book at around 15:00: War in Europe: The Trauma of Ukraine’s Children. What’s being done, what can be done to help?

It does sort of understate his qualifications. He was a U.S. Army officer in the 1980s, has a masters degree from Yale, and served as an OSCE representative in Mariupol for seven years (2014-2022), observing the ceasefire there and regularly meeting with units of the Ukrainian Army, Azov Regiment, Donets People’s Republic Army and the Russian Army. A little bit more than just a reporter.

The Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 – 22 October 2026

The Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is schedule for 20-22 October 2026 in Tysons Corner, VA. Same locate, same format as the previous HAACs.

The schedule for the previous (Fourth) HAAC is here: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

The developing schedule for the Fifth HAAC is here: HAAC 2026: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

The Eventbrite listing for the Fifth HAAC is here: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 20, 2026 at 8:00 AM | Eventbrite

Feel free to email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com if you want to schedule a presentation.

9 Books

Finally here is a picture of all nine of my published books. It includes two copies of The Battle for Kyiv, as one is the hardback and one is the paperback version. The paperback version does have some revisions and an expanded photo section.

We are looking to add two more books to that collection in the next six months. An additional book on the Russo-Ukrainian War should be out in the next 2 to 3 months, and The Battle of Tolstoye Woods should be out hopefully this spring. The editing process on all my books is slow, primarily because the large amount of charts, tables and tabular data in them that are a pain to edit and proof.

“Floating Fortresses – American Carriers’ Extraordinary Resilience to Battle Damage”

One of the presenters at our last two HAACs and a Dupuy Institute fellow has just published an article in the Naval War College Review. It is called “Floating Fortresses – American’s Carriers’ Extraordinary Resilience to Battle Damage” by Walker Gargagliano. This was spurred on by a conversation at Rangos (my usual hang-out) over claimed carrier losses in an analysis of potential losses in a Taiwan scenario. It was presented at our last conference and is now a published piece.

The article is here: “Floating Fortresses—American Carriers’ Extraordinary Resilience to Bat” by Walker Gargagliano

Abstract

On the basis of Cold War–era munitions accidents and World War II combat experience, U.S. carriers of today are far more resistant to battle damage than commonly believed.

 

The announcement for the Fifth HAAC is here:  Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 – 22 October 2026 – The Dupuy Institute

We are scheduling presentations. If you are interested, please email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com