War by Numbers III

The table of contents for the book:

—             Preface                                                                                    6
One          Understanding War                                                                 8
Two          Force Ratios                                                                          15
Three       Attacker versus Defender                                                      22
Four         Human Factors                                                                      24
Five          Measuring Human Factors in Combat: Italy                          27
Six            Measuring Human Factors in Combat: Ardennes & Kursk   40
Seven       Measuring Human Factors in Combat: Modern Wars          55
Eight         Outcome of Battles                                                               67
Nine          Exchange Ratios                                                                  75
Ten           The Combat Value of Superior Situational Awareness        83
Eleven      The Combat Value of Surprise                                           113
Twelve      The Nature of Lower Level Combat                                   135
Thirteen    The Effects of Dispersion on Combat                                150
Fourteen   Advance Rates                                                                  164
Fifteen       Casualties                                                                         171
Sixteen      Urban Legends                                                                 197
Seventeen The Use of Case Studies                                                 248
Eighteen    Modeling Warfare                                                             270
Nineteen    Validation of the TNDM                                                    286
Twenty       Conclusions                                                                     313

Appendix I:   Dupuy’s Timeless Verities of Combat                           317
Appendix II:  Dupuy’s Combat Advance Rate Verities                       322
Appendix III: Dupuy’s Combat Attrition Verities                                 326

Bibliography                                                                                       331

Page numbers are based upon the manuscript and will certainly change. The book is 342 pages and 121,095 words. Definitely a lot shorter than the Kursk book.


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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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