The 3:1 Ratio

Was searching around on YouTube yesterday on “Dupuy Institute” and ran across this video: People Always Get This Wrong – YouTube. This was posted three weeks ago. Preston Stewart is not known to me.

I am called out by name on 5:14 in the video. It is clear he pulled up one of our old reports, the charts at 6:00 and 6:14 are ours. The chart at 6:36 is ours and was later republished in War by Numbers. It appears to be abbreviated. The complete chart is on page 10 of War by Numbers. The chart at 6:44 has also been republished in War by Numbers. The chart at 7:30 is from our reports. The one high odds attack that failed on that chart was an Iraqi attack against the coalition. See: TDI – The Dupuy Institute Publications.

Anyhow, would recommend that Mr. Stewart look at Trevor Dupuy’s Understanding War, Chapter 4: The Three-to-One Theory of Combat, and at my book War by Numbers, Chapter 2: Force Ratios.

Also, he might might the following blog posts are useful:

Summation of Human Factors and Force Ratio posts | Mystics & Statistics (

Force Ratios at Kharkov and Kursk, 1943 | Mystics & Statistics (

Force Ratios in the Arab-Israeli Wars (1956-1973) | Mystics & Statistics (

Summation of Human Factors and Force Ratio posts | Mystics & Statistics (

Force Ratios and CRTs | Mystics & Statistics (

Talking Force Ratios Once Again | Mystics & Statistics (


Anyhow, thank you Preston Stewart for the call out.


I will be doing a presentation on Force Ratios at the second HAAC on 17 October and will be doing a similar presentation in Norway in early November. See: Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 – 19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (

We do have a YouTube site: The Dupuy Institute – YouTube. So far the only video posted is a test video. The husky is named Max. We may be posting some more videos there in the next couple of months. There are three subscribers to our site. I gather we can get some funding if we get a 100,000 or more subscribers. So only 99,997 to go. Please subscribe.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

Articles: 1516


  1. Good luck with YouTube. You guys are excellent (and, compared to say, ISW, far above the competition).

      • I wish you did too, to be honest. I currently have more children then funds, so at least you aren’t alone in the money hole, haha.

        I don’t understand why ISW gets the size, funding and reach that it does. I don’t want to be too harsh, but their analysis generally seems more concerned with sounding professional and hitting political points then competency.

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