Mystics & Statistics

The Fourth HAAC can be signed up to via Event Brite, Paypal, or directly with TDI

We are signing up attendees and still looking for presentations for the Fourth HAAC on 21- 23 October. You can sign up through EventBrite (Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite) or through Paypal (More From PayPal For Business | PayPal US at @SrichTDI@aol.com) or call TDI (703-289-0007) or email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com. We can take credit cards over the phone.   

Cost of the conference remains $150 for three days or $60 a day. This is whether attending in person or virtual. We do offer a student discount of $20 a day. If you present, you get a $60 discount. So those attending for only one day and presenting are at no cost ($60 – $60 = 0).

We currently have 31 presentations scheduled. We have 15 slots open. Schedule is here: March’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21-23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

Conference announcement is here: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

Some Thoughts on Military Revolutions

The link here is to Andy Marshall’s memorandum in August 1993 about “Some Thoughts on Military Revolutions – Second Version.” See: Unknown. It is eight pages long (and is repeated in this file).

I have decided to post it here primarily so I can easily find it for future reference. It is not posted here because I agree, disagree, or wish to debate the memo, I just want it somewhere so I can easily look it up. This memo was nominally the start of the RMA (Revolution in Military Affairs). I have always believed in an EMA (Evolution in Military Affairs).

It is worth your while the read the entire memo and not to speed read it.

Related post: The Closing of OSD Net Assessment – The Dupuy Institute

I do note that he says in this 1993 memo that: “I believe that the most important thing for the next few years, given that we face no immediate large challenges, is to undertake a more active search for insights as to appropriate longer term changes in doctrine, concepts of operation, and organizational change.”

 

March’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21-23 October 2025

The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21-23 October 2025. We currently have 31 presentations scheduled (and 2 group discussions). We are, of course, looking for more quality presentations. The current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike & Gallows Conference Center
Revised 26 March 2025

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030 Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1030 – 1130   Slouching Towards Wabash: The Withering of Historical Analysis in the American Profession of Arms – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1130 – 1230   The History of TND’s models and theories – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1230 – 1400 Lunch

1400 – 1500   Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire

1500 – 1600   open

1600 – 1700   Difficulties in Measuring Morale and Effectiveness – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual

1700 – 1800   Price of Paradise – Dr. Iain Overton (AOAV) – virtual

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – Rangos

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1100 – 1200   Reserved for Dr. David Cuberes

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   1916 Easter Rising – Robert A. Mosher

1400 – 1500   Terrorism and Afghanistan – Dr. Christopher Davis

1500 – 1600   open

1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – BJs

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   Summoning the specter of “Beweglichkeit”: A critical analysis of the U.S. Army’s new FM 3-0 Operations and observed Ukrainian battlefield trends – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1000 – 1100   Systems Analysis and Strategy – Alexandru Filip

1100 – 1200   Results from the Taiwan Analytical Efforts – Alexandru Filips

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   History’s Lessons on Technological Surprised in War – Dr. Alexander Kott

1400 – 1500   Revitalization of TDI – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1500 – 1600   Syrskyi’s Gambit: A Critical Analysis of Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War

Evening: Happy hour – Rangos

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

Day 1: Naval Warfare Analysis

0930 – 1030   Naval Theory and War Causation – Alexandru Filip

1030 – 1130   Modeling the Invasion of Taiwan – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill, et al.

1130 – 1230   Modeling ATC Amphibious Landings on Taiwan – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill

1230-1400   Lunch

1400 – 1500   Taipei Has Fallen!: Wargaming the Invasion of Taiwan – Clinton Rielly – virtual

1500 – 1600 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire

1600 – 1700   open

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000   The Manoeuvre Warfare Fraud – William F. Owen – virtual?

1000 – 1100    Salvation Only in Arms: A Critical Historical Analysis of Operational Maneuver during the 1814 Campaign in France – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1100 – 1200   Reserved – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   Quantifying Mahan’s Hypotheses – Dr. Julian Spencer Churchill

1400 – 1500   open

1500 – 1600    open

1600 – 1700   open

Day 2: Air Warfare Analysis

0900 – 1000   open

1000 – 1100   open

1100 – 1200   open 

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   open

1400 – 1500   open

1500 – 1600   open

1600 – 1700   open

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   Isserson: The Architect of Victory – Dr. Richard Harrison

1000 – 1100   Audacity versus Friction: Evaluating Operational Autism in Operation Barbarossa. – Dr. Robert Kirchubel and Dr. Sorin Adam Matei (Purdue)  

 1100 – 1200   Reserve for Dr. James Slaughter

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1400 – 1500   New Advances in Digital Military Cartography – Gavin Ho, Joseph Hupy, Sorin Adam Matei and Robert Kirchubel.

1500 – 1600   open

1600 – 1700   open 

 

Reserve presentations:

Measuring Human Factors – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

Breakpoints – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

 

Friday, October 11: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam: bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War (and in the Western Hemisphere?). – we will arrange transport there and back ($20 charge for tour).



See this link below for costs ($150), address, conference description, hotels, and call for presentations: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

Last year’s schedule is here:  October’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 8 – 10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

 

The Closing of OSD Net Assessment

Turns out that OSD Net Assessment is being closed down. Pete Hegseth shutters Pentagon office that helped military leaders plan for possible future wars and Hegseth ‘disestablishing’ Office of Net Assessment, Pentagon’s strategic analysis specialists – Breaking Defense. Hegseth has instructed DOD to come up with a replacement organization “within 30 days.”

This was a small office in OSD (Office of the Secretary of Defense) that developed legendary status over the years: Andrew Marshall (foreign policy strategist) – Wikipedia

The Dupuy Institute did a number of contracts for Andy Marshall, specifically (see: TDI Reports – The Dupuy Institute)

1. SR-1 Soviet/Russian Influence on Chinese Military Doctrine (Jul. 2003).

2. SA-1: Measuring the Value of Situational Awareness (May 2004)

3. OSD-1: The Applicability of Classical Counterinsurgency Theory to Counterinsurgency Operations (Jan. 2008).

The original Iraq Casualty Estimate (Chapter 1 of America’s Modern Wars) that we did in 2004 was primarily funded by Andy Marshall. He contributed $75K based upon a phone call from Vandiver (CAA) and then CAA chipped in $20K, although CAA ran the project. I did brief Andy Marshall.

The office was funded with about $20 million a year. This supported maybe a dozen people and a budget of $12 or $13 million that he used to pay for various contracts (I accidently saw one of his big omnibus contracts). 

He retired in 2015 and an Air Force colonel that I did not know took over. They then issued out a giant omnibus contract which we bid on. They did not contract us.

OSD Net Assessment did an annual “net assessment” of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact. Apparently, his last net assessment was done in 1991. After that he focused on a range of issues, including orienting towards China and the RMA (Revolution in Military Affairs). Note that he funded our Situational Awareness report in 2004, which really did not provide overwhelming support for the RMA. It is two chapters in my book War by Numbers and I will be doing a briefing on it on 8 April at the Virtual Connections Conference.

That he was doing lots of analysis but no net assessments became an issue and at some point in the last decade, there were rumors that some of the JCS staff took over the net assessment function. I gather after he retired (he was in his 90s), the new guy was supposed to direct the department back to net assessment. So, I am not sure, but I gather there is now no real department in OSD that is doing net assessment. 

 

Slog or Swan

Dr. Dermot Rooney was a presenter at the Third HAAC and will be presenting on Measuring Military Effectiveness at the Fourth HAAC. See: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

He has a new book out based upon his work: Slog and Swan: British Army Effectiveness in Operation Veritable: February and March 1945. See: Slog or Swan | Military History Book | Helion & Company

As he describes it:

The book is based on my Corvisier Award-winning PhD thesis so be warned, it’s a bit geeky. It’s got 43 maps, 300 sources, a good handful of graphs and photos, and loads of footnotes.

On the upside it’s about fighting. The maps are mainly those used by the units at the time and they’re marked up to show the detail of how British and a few Canadian troops fought in 1945. It tells the story of how those men defeated the last competent Wehrmacht formation in the west –1. Fallschirm-Armee– despite suffering from a bunch of force design problems that still matter today.

And the book is about a massive operation that’s not been seriously examined before. If you count the Germans, Op Veritable had half a million men fighting for a month in what is close to the biggest named op that Britain ever fought. It started with a (nearly) thousand-bomber raid and the biggest artillery barrage of the war, it’s got one of the few confirmed deployments of the Sturmtiger, dozens of battles where plucky Tommies took on fanatical Fallschirmjäger, and it ended with the German Dunkirk – an orderly withdrawal where they blew up the last bridge behind them.

Yet even hardened WW2 buffs are often unsure where Veritable was fought and hardly anybody knows what it was about.

So, Slog or Swan might not be for you, and it might be a little bit late for the 80th anniversary of Veritable, but it’s the perfect Christmas Easter gift for the war geek in your life.

30-Day Ceasefire?

The U.S. and Ukraine have agreed to a thirty-day ceasefire. Russia now has to agree.

Terms are (according to the news reports):

  • Immediate 30-day ceasefire.
  • The United States immediately lifts its pause on sharing intelligence with Ukraine and resumes security assistance to that country.
    • This appears to occur even if Russia does not agree to the plan. 
  • U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to conclude “as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources.”

The ceasefire would halt all hostilities, “not just for missiles, drones and bombs, not just in the Black Sea, but along the entire front line.” (Zelenskyy)

The U.S. and Ukrainian delegations said the interim, month-long ceasefire “can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties.” (joint statement)

Now, have no idea if this has been properly prepped with Russia or not. They could turn it down. I would not be surprised if they insist on Ukraine withdrawing from Kursk area before they agree. 

Anyhow, it is a proposed 30-day ceasefire.

  1. It does not guarantee it will be extended.
  2. Does not address any of the issues that caused the war.
  3. Does not provide any security guarantees for Ukraine.
  4. It leaves 20% of Ukraine in Russia hands.

We shall see if it is agreed to and, if agreed to, how long it stands. We have been down this road before (2014-2022).

 

 Copy of Joint Statement:

Text of US-Ukraine statement paving way for resumption of aid, intelligence sharing

Other Sources:

Ukraine agrees to U.S.-led ceasefire plan if Russia accepts

US and Ukraine call for 30-day ceasefire following Saudi talks

We have uploaded nine videos from the Third HAAC (2024) to our YouTube channel

We have uploaded nine videos from the Third HAAC (8 – 10 October 2024) to our YouTube Channel: The Dupuy Institute – YouTube. We have also loaded over the weekend the last five videos from the First HAAC: We have finally uploaded the last five videos from the First HAAC (2022) – The Dupuy Institute. It is amazing how much you can do when you are not obsessing over getting the next book over to the publisher. Did receive considerable help on this from Jack Flairty.

The videos are (in order they were presented): HAAC 2024: Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8-10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

Naval Power Index: The U.S. Navy vs three challengers by Geoffrey Clark

Redux: Quantifying Warfare by Alexandru Filip (Canadian Center for Strategic Studies)

National Guard Bureau Chief George Leach by Dr. Johannes Allert (Swansea University Wales)

Native American Wars and Conflicts, 1500 -1900 by Dr. David Cuberes

Haiti: The Risks of a Failed State in the Western Hemisphere by Dr. Christopher Davis

Data for Air Combat Modeling in Network Centric Warfare by Geoffry Clark

The Islamic State of Khorasan: The Evolution of Terrorism by Dr. Christopher Davis

Making Military Decisions in Plateau Eras – Michael Benhamou (Director, OPEWI)

Chernobyl Compromised: The story of a Russian cyber attack – Joseph Weiss

 

More to come, but probably not any time soon. The Fourth HAAC is upcoming. Looking for presenters and presentations: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

We have finally uploaded the last five videos from the First HAAC (2022)

The First HAAC (Historical Analysis Annual Conference) was held on 27-29 September 2022. We have finally uploaded all the videos we have from that conference to The Dupuy Institute site on YouTube. The original final conference schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 – The Dupuy Institute. It was a total of 31 presentations given and two group discussions. Of those, 20 presentations have been loaded to YouTube. We do not have recorded copies of the rest of the presentations.

The last five presentations we uploaded are here:

    1. The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive, 1918 by Dr. Davis
    2. Evaluating German Aerial Photography at the Battle of Kursk, 1943 by Eugene Matyukhin
    3. The Decline of War since 1950 by Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)
    4. Drone Warfare and the Nagorno Karabakh War of 2020 by Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)
    5. Red Army’s War in Ukraine 1943-44 by Dr. Richard Harrison

The slides for all 31 presentations are here: Presentations from the first HAAC – all three days – The Dupuy Institute

The links to the previous presentations are here: 

  1. Video presentations from the first day of the First HAAC – The Dupuy Institute
  2. Five presentations from the second day of the First HAAC (2022) – The Dupuy Institute

We are going to upload some of the 2024 presentations next and then pick up the 2023 presentations. 

Also: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

 

The Hunting Falcon is available in the UK

Hunting Falcon, as of today, is now available on Amazon.com UK. The site has the release date of 6 March 2025. It has a list price of £25 and they are selling it right now at a 25% discount for £18.71:  The Hunting Falcon: The Story of WW1 German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke: Amazon.co.uk: Lawrence, Christopher A, Karamales, Jay: 9781399085014: Books

It is available for £17.50 directly from Pen & Sword: Pen and Sword Books: The Hunting Falcon – Hardback

Amazon.com U.S. is listing its available date of April 3, 2025. It is available for pre-order at $42.95: Amazon.com: The Hunting Falcon: The Story of WW1 German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke: 9781399085014: Lawrence, Christopher A, Karamales, Jay: Books

 

The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025

The Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 at Tysons Corner, VA (just outside of DC). 

It is at the same facility, same times, and same type of schedule as the previous three conferences. Also, same price ($150 for three days). Virtual attendance is possible.

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

Seeing how things remain constant here are:

Accommodations: Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Costs: Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

It will be possible to register through EventBrite: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite

I am looking for new presentations and new presenters. If you are interested in contributing, please email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me (703) 289-0007.

Last year’s schedule is here: HAAC 2024: Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8-10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute