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# The Dupuy Institute

Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis

## Sitemaps

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## Posts

- [Mystics & Statistics](https://dupuyinstitute.org/blog/)
- [The Fifth HAAC: Conference Description](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/03/04/the-fifth-haac-conference-description/) - I have run the conference the same way at the same locale for last five years. For those not familiar with this, let me provide some links:The conference description: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA - The Dupuy InstituteAccommodations: Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference
- [Call for Presentations for the Fifth HAAC, 20 - 22 October 2026](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/03/03/call-for-presentations-for-the-fifth-haac-20-22-october-2026/) - This is a call to everyone out there for proposed presentations for the upcoming Fifth HAAC, in Tysons Corner, VA on 20-22 October 2026. The announcement for the Fifth HAAC is here: The Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 – 22 October 2026 - The Dupuy Institute The current schedule is here: HAAC 2026: Fifth
- [Data for Wargames (7:00 PM Wednesday, 25 Feb.)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/02/24/data-for-wargames-700-pm-wednesday-25-feb/) - I will be doing a presentation tomorrow on "Data for Wargames" on the Fight Club Webinar Series 2026. The link is here: Data for Wargames with Christopher A. Lawrence. It is a presentation developed in part from my book War by Numbers.
- [The Western View of Taiwan's Defense](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/02/20/the-western-view-of-taiwans-defense/) - One of our associates has just had this article published in "Real Clear Defense.": The Western View of Taiwan’s Defense | RealClearDefense. It does compare the Taiwan situation to Ukraine in 2022.
- [Air Power over the Rhine 1940](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/02/19/air-power-over-the-rhine/) - Air Power over the Rhine: The Luftwaffe, the French Air Force and the Battle of France will be presented by Dr. James F. Slaughter III on WW2 TV at: Airpower over the Rhine: The Luftwaffe, the French Air Force, and the Battle of France Dr. James Slaughter, in addition to doing eight videos on Antietam
- [All eight presentations on the Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/02/18/all-eight-presentation-on-the-antietam-and-the-maryland-campaign-of-1862/) - We have now downloaded onto our YouTube Channel all eight videos on The Battle of Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862, presented by Dr. James F. Slaughter III.The YouTube channel is here: The Dupuy Institute - YouTubeThe videos are below.Understanding Antietam: The Strategic Situation in Late Summer 1862: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of
- [A Repeat of the Antietam 7 presentation is being done today (Monday 16 February) at 7:00 PM EST via Zoom](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/02/16/a-repeat-of-the-antietam-7-presentation-is-being-done-today-monday-16-february-at-700-pm-est-via-zoom/) - We are doing a repeat of the Antietam 7 presentation today (Monday, 16 February) at 7:00 PM via Zoom. This is for the sake of getting a proper recording of it. The link is here: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/82407948059?pwd=cbwEuOSfw7SvnnC064BaaZMSauSoNa.1The first two Antietam presentations are on You Tube. We intend to shortly add the other six to our You
- [The last Antietam presentation via Zoom is scheduled this Wednesday (11 Feb.) at 7:00 PM EST](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/02/09/the-last-antietam-presentation-via-zoom-is-scheduled-this-wednesday-11-feb-at-700-pm-est/) - The Antietam 8 presentation is scheduled this Wednesday at 7:00 PM on 11 February. The Zoom link is here:11 February: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89148411099?pwd=M6XcmIbVmbsovbE0bVGjespUzZI75G.1 Antietam 1 and 2 are on our YouTube channel.Antietam 3 – 6 have been recorded and will be posted up soon.Dr. James Slaughter did give a tour of the battlefield at the last HAAC.
- [The Siege of Mariupol has been released](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/01/30/the-siege-of-mariupol-has-been-released/) - The Siege of Mariupol has been released in the U.S. today. It has been available in the UK since November 27, 2025. This is the second book in a series on the Russo-Ukrainian War. It was co-authored with Stefan Korshak. Stefan was an OSCE ceasefire observer in Mariupol for seven years.We do have three other
- [Last week to pre-order The Siege of Mariupol](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/01/27/last-week-to-pre-order-the-siege-of-mariupol/) - The Siege of Mariupol is being released on 30 January and will be available on Amazon.com: The Siege of Mariupol: The Azovstal Steel Plant and Ukraine’s Battle for Survival: Lawrence, Christopher A, Korshak, Stefan: 9781399034203: Amazon.com: BooksThey do offer a pre-release sale price of $34.95 (13% discount) if you order before 30 January. If you
- [Last two Antietam presentations are scheduled this Wednesday (the 28th) and Wednesday after next (11 Feb.)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/01/26/last-two-antietam-presentations-are-scheduled-this-wednesday-the-28th-and-wednesday-after-next-11-feb/) - The Antietam 7 and Antietam 8 presentations are scheduled this Wednesday at 7:00 PM on 28 January and Wednesday after next at 7:00 PM on 11 February. The links for them are here:28 January: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/84169372630?pwd=IvSdmZa3dVGPrMFKanNjNeFa9Y1Sf2.111 February: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89148411099?pwd=M6XcmIbVmbsovbE0bVGjespUzZI75G.1 Antietam 1 and 2 are on our YouTube channel.Antietam 3 – 6 have been recorded and will be posted up soon.Dr.
- [Last two Antietam presentations are scheduled this Wednesday (the 21st) and Wednesday after next (4 Feb.)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/01/19/last-two-antietam-presentations-are-scheduled-this-wednesday-the-21st-and-wednesday-after-next-4-feb/) - The Antietam 7 and Antietam 8 presentations are scheduled this Wednesday at 7:00 PM on 21 January and Wednesday after next at &:00 PM on 4 February. The links for them are here:21 January: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/84169372630?pwd=IvSdmZa3dVGPrMFKanNjNeFa9Y1Sf2.14 February: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89148411099?pwd=M6XcmIbVmbsovbE0bVGjespUzZI75G.1Antietam 1 and 2 are on our YouTube channel.Antietam 3 - 6 have been recorded and will be posted up soon.Dr.
- [Four Friendly Fire Reports](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/01/13/four-friendly-fire-reports/) - I did a blog past month fishing around for what else has been done on Friendly Fire: A Friendly Fire Discussion - The Dupuy Institute. As a result of that post asking about where else had been done, Paul Syms (UK), a former Dstl analyst, sent me the following five files. With his permission they
- [Stefan Korshak and the Siege of Mariupol book](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/01/12/stefan-korshak-and-the-siege-of-mariupol-book/) - While I am fairly well known in the historical analysis and military history community, my co-author of the Mariupol book is not. This video on a panel on the trauma of Ukraine's children does provide a brief introduction of him and the book at around 15:00: War in Europe: The Trauma of Ukraine’s Children. What’s
- ["Floating Fortresses - American Carriers' Extraordinary Resilience to Battle Damage"](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/01/06/floating-fortresses-american-carriers-extraordinary-resilience-to-battle-damage/) - One of the presenters at our last two HAACs and a Dupuy Institute fellow has just published an article in the Naval War College Review. It is called "Floating Fortresses - American's Carriers' Extraordinary Resilience to Battle Damage" by Walker Gargagliano. This was spurred on by a conversation at Rangos (my usual hang-out) over claimed
- [The Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 - 22 October 2026](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/01/08/the-fifth-haac-is-scheduled-for-20-22-october-2026/) - The Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is schedule for 20-22 October 2026 in Tysons Corner, VA. Same locate, same format as the previous HAACs. The schedule for the previous (Fourth) HAAC is here: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy InstituteThe developing schedule for the Fifth HAAC is here: HAAC 2026: Fifth
- [9 Books](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/01/07/9-books/) - Finally here is a picture of all nine of my published books. It includes two copies of The Battle for Kyiv, as one is the hardback and one is the paperback version. The paperback version does have some revisions and an expanded photo section.We are looking to add two more books to that collection in
- [Four books on Kursk](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2026/01/05/four-books-on-kursk/) - I have three books published on the Battle of Kursk and one coming out next year (The Batte of Tolstoye Woods). The Battle of Kusk was the largest battle of World War II. You would not get that sense from the military history section of most bookstores. Anyhow, there were four parts to the battle.
- [Two books](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/12/31/two-books/) - These two books are my two analytical books. Both quantitative in approach. Notice the use of the word "Understanding" in both titles.American's Modern Wars cover our analysis of insurgencies and counterinsurgencies based upon an analysis of 89 post-WWII cases. There has been very little quantitative analysis of insurgencies. This is the most extensive effort I
- [Four Books](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/12/29/four-books/) - Just got my author copies for a few of my books. Decided to post them all up. 1. Hunting Falcon - available U.S. April 3, 20252. Aces at Kursk - available U.S. September 30, 20243. Battle for Kyiv (paperback) - Hardback available U.S. January 18, 2024 - paperback available UK 4 December 2025. Will be
- [Presentation on the New Science of Causality and Evidence on Friday, 21 November, 300 PM EST](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/11/20/presentation-on-the-new-science-of-causality-and-evidence-on-friday-21-november-300-pm-est/) - Dr. Douglas Samuelson will be giving a presentation on the New Science of Causality and Evidence at George Mason on this Friday, 21 November, 3oo PM (EST). It is also available on Zoom. This is an extension of the presentation he gave at the Fourth HAAC (see: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC)
- [Paperback version of The Battle for Kyiv is out in the UK](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/12/22/paperback-version-of-the-battle-for-kyiv-is-out-in-the-uk/) - The paperback version of The Battle for Kyiv is now out in the UK. It has been slightly updated from the hardback version. In particular it has included an updated account of the Battle of Chernihiv and an expanded picture section. The paperback version will be available in the U.S. come 28 February 2026.Also The
- [A Friendly Fire Discussion](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/12/04/a-friendly-fire-discussion/) - I have decided to turn one of my email discussions I was having with several people into a blog post. As they got into a discussion of friendly fire (I gather based upon one addressee's personal experience), I ended up making the following statement: Friendly fire (FF): 1. The original figure that came out of
- [Links to Stefan Korshak's blog, co-author of The Siege of Mariupol](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/12/03/links-to-stefan-korshak-co-author-the-siege-of-mariupol/) - My co-author Stefan Korshak does regularly post about the war in Ukraine. He has three links to his weekly blog from Kyiv about the Russo-Ukraine War:https://www.facebook.com/stefan.korshakhttps://stefankorshak.substack.comhttps://medium.com/@Stefan.KorshakStefan is currently located in Kyiv. Originally from Texas, officer in the U.S. Army in the 1980s, Yale grad, served as an OSCE ceasefire observer in Mariupol from 2014-2022, and
- [Europe's Choice: Military and Economic Scenarios for the War in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/12/02/europes-choice-military-and-economic-scenarios-for-the-war-in-ukraine/) - This paper just released by CORISK and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) is definitely worth taking a look at. English language version: 2025 Europes choice_FINAL_251125_174147 There are eight references to Dupuy's work and one to War by Numbers, so it definitely holds our interest. The chapters in the report are: Military Scenarios and
- [The Siege of Mariupol is Available in the UK](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/12/01/the-siege-of-mariupol-is-available-in-the-uk/) - My latest book, The Siege of Mariupol, co-authored by Stefan Korshak, is now available in the UK. The Amazon.com (UK) link is here: The Siege of Mariupol: The Azovstal Steel Plant and Ukraine’s Battle for Survival : Christopher A Lawrence, Stefan Korshak: Amazon.co.uk: Books It is listed as "Temporarily out of stock" but I gather
- [Antietam 6 presentation via Zoom tonight, 24 November, at 7:00 PM, EST](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/11/24/antietam-6-presentation-via-zoom-tonight-24-november-at-700-pm-est/) - The sixth presentation on the Battle of Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 is tonight at 7:00 PM on Zoom. The link is here: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/82023002722?pwd=GvpTb8JsA2XW2E6aPfZ4Ukg5tSaH7l.1 The final two presentations will be scheduled later.
- [Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 - 22 October 2026](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/11/12/fifth-haac-is-scheduled-for-20-22-october-2026/) - The Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is schedule for 20-22 October 2026 in Tysons Corner, VA. Same locate, same format as the previous HAACs. The schedule for the previous (Fourth) HAAC is here: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) - The Dupuy InstituteThe developing schedule for the Fifth HAAC is here: HAAC
- [Fifth Presentation on Antietam tonight, 10 November via Zoom at 700 PM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/11/10/fifth-presentation-on-antietam-tonight-10-november-via-zoom-at-700-pm/) - Fifth presentation on Antietam tonight, 10 November via Zoom at 7:00 PM (EST). It is the fifth in a series of seven or more presentations by Dr. James Slaughter on the Maryland Campaign of 1862. It addresses the actual fighting on September 17, 1862. The current schedule is: 5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17,
- [NATO's misconception of Soviet Military Strategy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/11/05/natos-misconception-of-soviet-military-strategy/) - At the 2024 HAAC, Walker Gargagliano gave a presentation on "NATO's Misconception of Critique of Western Wargames of NATO-WP Conflict." This has now been turned into a paper that was published by the Journal of Strategic Studies. It is behind a paywall, but many of those who have access to a college library can probably
- [Leavenworth Master's Thesis on "Forecasting Approaches in Operations Desert Sheild and Desert Storm](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/11/04/leavenworth-masters-thesis-on-forecasting-approaches-in-operations-desert-sheild-and-desert-storm/) - In 2020 Major Aaron F. Anderson, a student at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College in Fort Leavenworth Kansas, published a master's thesis called "Forecasting Approaches in Operations Desert Sheild and Desert Storm." It was just sent to me. I was not aware of it even though the author quoted my book War
- [Fourth Presentation on Antietam tonight, 27 Oct. via Zoom at 700 PM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/10/27/fourth-presentation-on-antietam-tonight-27-oct-via-zoom-at-700-pm/) - Fourth presentation on Antietam tonight, 27 October via Zoom at 7:00 PM (EST). It is the fourth in a series of seven presentations by Dr. James Slaughter on the Maryland Campaign of 1862. It gets into the actual fighting on the morning of September 17, 1862. The current schedule is: 4. The Morning Battle September
- [Fourth HAAC starts tomorrow (21-23 October) in Tysons Corner](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/10/20/fourth-haac-starts-tomorrow-21-23-october-in-tysons-corner/) - The Fourth HAAC starts tomorrow, 21 -23 October, in Tysons Corner. Schedule is here: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) - The Dupuy InstitutePayment options are here: Paying for the Fourth HAAC (21-23 October) - The Dupuy InstituteEventbrite is here: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00
- [Fourth HAAC starts in five days (Tuesday, 21 October)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/10/16/fourth-haac-starts-in-five-days-tuesday-21-october/) - The Fourth HAAC starts in five days (Tuesday, 21 October in Tysons Corner). Current schedule: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) - The Dupuy Institute It is 56 presentations. Still have three open slots if anyone wants to add something at the last minute. Payment options are discussed here: Paying for
- [Antietam presentation cancelled tonight, rescheduled in two weeks](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/10/13/antietam-presentation-cancelled-tonight-rescheduled-in-two-weeks/) - Sorry, but people have real lives, so we have to cancel the Antietam presentation for tonight and reschedule it to Monday after next (27 October). The current schedule is: 4. The Morning Battle September 17, 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 29 October: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/86146521730?pwd=2m42z3ynMzKOB51pxX6XSrQVSicN8c.1 5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – `Monday, 700
- [Adding a session on "Biological Warfare and Medical Analysis" to the Fourth HAAC](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/10/08/adding-a-session-on-medical-and-biological-warfare-analysis-to-the-fourth-haac/) - We are adding a session on Thursday, October 23 on "Biological Warfare and Medical Analysis" to the Fourth HAAC. We have lined up two presentations for it and are looking for up to five more. Please email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com if you would be interested in presenting at this session on October 23. Current HAAC
- [Fourth HAAC Schedule is updated to add Medical Session](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/10/08/fourth-haac-schedule-is-updated-to-add-medical-session/) - We have updated the Fouth HAAC Schedule to add a "Biological Warfare and Medical Analysis" session: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) - The Dupuy Institute. It is on the third day, Thursday, 23 October. We still have four open slots in that session that we are looking for presenters for. If you
- [Paying for the Fourth HAAC (21-23 October)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/10/01/paying-for-fourth-haac/) - Unfortunately, we do have to collect payment for people attending the Fourth HAAC, as we have facilities we have to rent and do not have sponsorship. The payment is the same as it has been for the last three years, which is $150 to attend for all three days, or $90 if you are presenting,
- [September's Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Conference (HAAC) 21 - 23 October 2025](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/09/30/septembers-schedule-for-the-fourth-historical-analysis-conference-haac-21-23-october-2025/) - The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21-23 October 2025. We currently have 51 presentations scheduled (and one group discussions). We are, as always, looking for more quality presentations. The current schedule is now posted to the button on this blog/web site here: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) - The Dupuy Institute Conference
- [Antietam Presentation tonight on Zoom at 7:00 PM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/09/29/antietam-presentation-tonight-on-zoom-at-700-pm/) - The third presentation on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 is tonight at 7:00 PM via zoom. The link is here: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/83788354791?pwd=QlsATGfUYAaS4rwhw25SlyuQXrKjOW.1 The current schedule is: 3. The Armies on September 16, 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 29 September: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/83788354791?pwd=QlsATGfUYAaS4rwhw25SlyuQXrKjOW.1 4. The Morning Battle September 17, 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 13
- [Presentation on "The Forgotten Campaign" this Wednesday, 24 September, 7:00 PM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/09/22/presentation-on-the-forgotten-campaign-this-wednesday-24-september-700-pm/) - Presentation on "The Forgotten Campaign - the origin and development of American Economic Warfare in WWII (1939-1941)" is this Wednesday at 7:00 PM by Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret). The link is: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85102581565?pwd=yyrcjsdWLGLtMjjFOyFXxLuDGK6VaV.1 The current schedule is: 2. The Forgotten Campaign – the origin and development of American Economic Warfare in WWII (1939-41)
- [Antietam presentations for Wednesday rescheduled to Mondays](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/09/17/antietam-presentation-for-this-wednesday-rescheduled-to-monday/) - Sorry for the schedule change, but all of the presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 have been rescheduled to Mondays. The new schedule is: 2. The Forgotten Campaign – the origin and development of American Economic Warfare in WWII (1939-41) – Wednesday, 700 PM, 24 September https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85102581565?pwd=yyrcjsdWLGLtMjjFOyFXxLuDGK6VaV.1 3. The Armies on
- [July's Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 - 23 October 2025](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/07/24/julys-schedule-for-the-fourth-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-21-23-october-2025/) - The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21-23 October 2025. We currently have 50 presentations scheduled (and one group discussions). We are, of course, looking for more quality presentations. The current schedule is: Schedule: Pike & Gallows Conference CenterRevised 11 September 2025 Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat 0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher
- [Battle of Baquba 2007 Presentation on Wednesday, 7 PM EST via Zoom](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/09/09/battle-of-baquba-2007-presentation-on-wednesday-7-pm-est-via-zoom/) - Presentation on the Battle of Baquba 2007 by one of the participants, Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) on Wednesday, 10 September, 7 PM EST. 1. The Counter-Insurgency Insurgency (Battle of Baquba 2007) – 10 September: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/88289615788?pwd=xcr0NqPr88g4eUtWLSW5RwD5sd6Lem.1 Other upcoming presentations and meetings: 3. The Armies on September 16, 1862 – 17 September: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/83788354791?pwd=QlsATGfUYAaS4rwhw25SlyuQXrKjOW.1
- [The Book Cover for America's Modern Wars](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/09/08/the-book-cover-for-americas-modern-wars/) - America's Modern Wars, Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam is a theoretical work on the nature of insurgencies and counterinsurgencies. It was originally going to be called Understanding Insurgencies but at the publisher's request we changed the title. I added the "Understanding" part. Needless to say, theoretical works rarely top the Times Best Seller List. The publisher
- [The first two presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/09/03/the-first-two-presentations-on-antietam-and-the-maryland-campaign-of-1862/) - Here are the first two presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 done by Dr. James F. Slaughter III. 1. Understanding Antietam: Part 1: The Strategic Situation in Late Summer 1862: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 1) 2. Action Prior to Antietam: South Mountain and Harper's Ferry: Antietam and the
- [Presentation for this Wednesday is re-scheduled](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/09/02/presentation-for-this-wednesday-is-re-scheduled/) - There is no presentation this Wednesday evening (3 September). It has been rescheduled. The next presentation is on the Wednesday after, on 10 September: The Counter-Insurgency Insurgency (Battle of Baquba 2007) by Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.). The third presentation on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 will be on 17 September.
- [Second Presentation on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 is on Wednesday (Aug. 20) at 7:00 PM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/08/18/second-presentation-of-antietam-and-the-maryland-campaign-of-1862-is-on-wednesday-aug-20-at-700-pm/) - The second of seven public presentations on the Battle of Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 is Wednesday night (Aug. 20) at 7:00 PM (EST) on Zoom. They will be on zoom on every other Wednesday at 7:00 PM EST. They are by Dr. James Slaughter and each presentation is around 45 minutes and
- [First presentation on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 is tomorrow (Aug. 6) at 7:00 PM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/08/05/first-presentation-on-antietam-and-the-maryland-campaign-of-1862-is-tomorrow-aug-6-at-700-pm/) - The first of seven public presentations on the Battle of Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 is tomorrow night (Aug. 6) at 7:00 PM (EST) on Zoom. They will be on zoom on every other Wednesday at 7:00 PM EST starting 6 August. They are by Dr. James Slaughter and each presentation is around
- [War by Numbers by AI](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/12/12/war-by-numbers-by-ai/) - So, my son put "War by Numbers" into whatever AI program he was using (HAL 9000?), and came up with this:Maybe I should have AI come up with my next book cover. It would be really nice if it would write my books for me.
- [Khrushchev Quote and AI](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/07/29/khrushchev-quote-and-ai/) - Nikita Khrushchev is one of more interesting people of the cold war era. I found a quote of his that I wanted to use in one of my books on the current Russo-Ukranian war. The quote is "The more bombers, the less room for doves of peace." Great quote, it is all over the internet,
- [Yahoo AI and order of battle for operations near Chernihiv in 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/08/04/yahoo-ai-and-order-of-battle-for-operations-near-chernihiv-in-2022/) - Well, having some more problems with AI. I was trying to confirm for once and for all whether any elements of the Russian 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade was near Chernihiv in first six weeks of the Russo-Ukrainian War? My suspicion is that it was not although some Wikipedia-type orders of battle put it there.I
- [Seven Presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign Scheduled](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/07/21/seven-presentations-on-antietam-and-the-maryland-campaign-scheduled/) - We are scheduling seven public presentations on the Battle of Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862. They are presentations by Dr. James Slaughter and will be on zoom on every other Wednesday at 7:00 PM EST starting 6 August (there is no presentation this Wednesday, 23 July). Each presentation is around 45 minutes and
- [All Four Presentations on the Tank Battles of the France 1940 Campaign are now on YouTube](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/07/22/all-four-presentations-on-the-tank-battles-of-the-france-1940-campaign-are-now-on-youtube/) - All four presentations by Dr. James Slaughter on the tank battles in the France 1940 Campaign are on YouTube. They are here: Tank Battles in France 1940: WWI and the Interwar Years Here: Tank Battles in France 1940 (part 2): 1 September 1939 to Sedan. Here: Tank Battles in France 1940 (part 3): Hannut and Arras
- [June's Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 - 23 October 2025](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/06/03/junes-schedule-for-the-fourth-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-21-23-october-2025/) - The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21-23 October 2025. We currently have 45 presentations scheduled (and 2 group discussions). We are, of course, looking for more quality presentations. The current schedule is: Schedule: Pike & Gallows Conference CenterRevised 17 July 2025 Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat 0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A.
- [Against the Panzers](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2017/08/22/against-the-panzers/) - The book that came out of the A2/D2 Study (Anti-Armor Defense Data Study) was Against the Panzers, by Allyn R. Vannoy and Jay Karamales: Against the Panzers: United States Infantry Versus German Tanks, 1944-1945 The graphics person for of my three books and the images for this website is Jay Karamales. Jay is a multi-talented
- [Korean War Story](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2017/11/14/korean-war-story/) - My father was a forward observer in Korea. In 1953, him and another U.S. soldier were camped out in a foxhole between the lines. It was nighttime and they were making dinner. The U.S. command had requested that its soldiers should try to capture some Chinese soldiers. As added incentive, the people who captured one would get a three-day pass
- [Fourth Presentation on Armor Battles in the France 1940 Campaign is this Wednesday, 9 July](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/07/08/fourth-presentation-on-armor-battles-in-the-france-1940-campaign-is-this-wednesday-9-july/) - The fourth and final presentation on the armor battles in the France 1940 campaign is this Wednesday, 9 July at 7:00 PM. This Zoom link is here: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/81190425614?pwd=3BW63IfxFmOb6n2amggweRGCkhuG7a.1 These four presentations are conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. We did record his first three presentations and posted them to our YouTube channel. The links is here:
- [Third Presentation on Armor Battles in the France 1940 Campaign is this Wednesday, 25 June](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/06/24/third-presentation-of-armor-battles-in-the-france-1940-campaign-is-this-wednesday-25-june/) - The third of four presentations of the armor battles in the France 1940 campaign in this Wednesday, 25 June at 7:00 PM. This Zoom link is here: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/88966838721?pwd=dtOO0Nwj5yqtATPZc8mKV5b3C36Vp7.1 They are all conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. We did record his first two presentations. The links is here: Tank Battles in France 1940: WWI and
- [Third France 1940 presentation now on YouTube](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/07/01/third-france-1940-lecture-now-on-youtube/) - The first three presentations by Dr. James Slaughter on armor battles in the France 1940 campaign are on YouTube. They are here: Tank Battles in France 1940: WWI and the Interwar Years Here: Tank Battles in France 1940 (part 2): 1 September 1939 to Sedan. And here: Tank Battles in France 1940 (part 3): Hannut
- [Second Presentation on Armor Battles in the France 1940 Campaign is this Wednesday, 11 June](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/06/09/second-presentation-on-armor-battles-in-the-france-1940-campaign-is-this-wednesday-11-june/) - The second of three presentations of the armor battles in the France 1940 campaign in this Wednesday, 11 June at 7:00 PM. This Zoom link is here: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/83671891297?pwd=vzmJZHEZqfYBAXb0xBZukM72hyN5DA.1 They are all conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. The first one was a month ago. We did record it. The link is here: Tank Battles in France 1940:
- [Two More Presentations on Armor Battles in the France 1940 Campaign](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/05/27/two-more-presentations-on-armor-battles-in-the-france-1940-campaign/) - We are going to be doing two more presentations of the armor battles in the France 1940 campaign. They are all conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. The first one was two weeks ago. We did record it. The link is here: Tank Battles in France 1940: WWI and the Interwar Years. Unfortunately, because of work
- [April's Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 - 23 October 2025](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/04/22/aprils-schedule-for-the-fourth-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-21-23-october-2025/) - The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21-23 October 2025. We currently have 39 presentations scheduled (and 2 group discussions). We are, of course, looking for more quality presentations. The current schedule is: Schedule: Pike & Gallows Conference CenterRevised 17 May 2025 Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat 0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A.
- [Robert Helmbold has a second book out](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/05/16/robert-helmbold-has-a-second-book-out/) - Robert Helmbold, previously with RAND and a senior scientist at the Center for Army Analysis (CAA), has a new book coming out:The Truth About Little Big Horn Finally Comes Out: Helmbold PhD, Robert L.: 9798280119437: Amazon.com: BooksIt is his second book. His first one came out in 2021:The Key to Victory: Machine Learning the Lessons
- [Three Presentations on Armor Battles in the France 1940 Campaign](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/05/14/three-presentations-on-armor-battles-in-the-france-1940-campaign/) - We are going to be doing three presentations of the armor battles in the France 1940 campaign. They are all conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. The first one is tonight, Wednesday, 14 May, at 7:00 PM EST. The next presentations are every two weeks later. They are open invitation via Zoom. The format is 30-45
- [Presentations on France 1940 and Antietam 1862](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/05/12/presentations-on-france-1940-and-antietam-1862/) - We have two presentations coming up this month on the Armor Battles in France in May 1940 on 14 May and on the Battle of Antietam on 28 May. We often host "community meetings" on a range of defense issues but limited the invite to those on the mailing list for the Historical Analysis Annual
- [This is a test for Jomini of the West](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/05/10/this-is-a-test/) - This is a test of our new blog poster - Jomini of the West. He will be posting directly to this blog. The views he represents are his own, not The Dupuy Institute. We do not review his posts before they go up. He is a "Research Fellow" at the Institute.
- [March's Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21-23 October 2025](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/03/18/februarys-schedule-for-the-fourth-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-21-23-october-2025/) - The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21-23 October 2025. We currently have 38 presentations scheduled (and 2 group discussions). We are, of course, looking for more quality presentations. The current schedule is: Schedule: Pike & Gallows Conference CenterRevised 11 April 2025 Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat 0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A.
- [The Hunting Falcon is now on sale in the U.S.](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/04/15/the-hunting-falcon-is-now-on-sale-in-the-u-s/) - According to Amazon.com (U.S.), The Hunting Falcon: The story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke has been available since 3 April. It was first offered for sale in the UK on 6 March 2025. The list price is $39.95 and it is available from Amazon.com right now for $37.26. See: Amazon.com: The Hunting Falcon: The
- [The argument for Taiwan](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/04/08/the-argument-for-taiwan/) - I do sometimes send out my blog posts for comment to people I know. They are not always hastily written while I am downing my first cup of coffee. The blog post What is more important: Ukraine or Taiwan ? - The Dupuy Institute was one such blog post. Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill of Concordia University
- [What is more important: Ukraine or Taiwan ?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/04/03/what-is-more-important-ukraine-or-taiwan/) - A little geo-political discussion here: What is more important 1) to support the defense of Ukraine or 2) to support the defense of Taiwan? Some stats: Population
- [No Peace in our Time ?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/04/02/no-peace-in-our-time/) - It does not look like that any substantive and meaningful peace agreement will be happening in the Russo-Ukrainian War in the first half of 2025. It looks like the fighting will continue during the spring and summer of 2025. Perhaps substantive discussion can restart in the fall of 2025. The current status of peace negotiations
- [The Executive Order on "Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History"](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/03/28/the-executive-order-on-restoring-truth-and-sanity-to-american-history/) - The link provided here is the Presidential Executive Order signed yesterday on "Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History." See: Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History – The White House We have never done any work with the Smithsonian, or Department of Interior or National Park Service, so this has no impact on us.
- [The Fourth HAAC can be signed up to via Event Brite, Paypal, or directly with TDI](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/03/24/the-fourth-haac-can-be-signed-up-to-via-event-brite-paypal-or-directly-with-tdi/) - We are signing up attendees and still looking for presentations for the Fourth HAAC on 21- 23 October. You can sign up through EventBrite (Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite) or through Paypal (More From PayPal For Business | PayPal US at @SrichTDI@aol.com) or call
- [Some Thoughts on Military Revolutions](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/03/19/some-thoughts-on-military-revolutions/) - The link here is to Andy Marshall's memorandum in August 1993 about "Some Thoughts on Military Revolutions - Second Version." See: Unknown. It is eight pages long (and is repeated in this file). I have decided to post it here primarily so I can easily find it for future reference. It is not posted here
- [The Closing of OSD Net Assessment](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/03/17/the-closing-of-osd-net-assessment/) - Turns out that OSD Net Assessment is being closed down. Pete Hegseth shutters Pentagon office that helped military leaders plan for possible future wars and Hegseth 'disestablishing' Office of Net Assessment, Pentagon's strategic analysis specialists - Breaking Defense. Hegseth has instructed DOD to come up with a replacement organization “within 30 days.” This was a
- [Slog or Swan](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/03/13/slog-or-swan/) - Dr. Dermot Rooney was a presenter at the Third HAAC and will be presenting on Measuring Military Effectiveness at the Fourth HAAC. See: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 - The Dupuy InstituteHe has a new book out based upon his work: Slog and Swan: British Army Effectiveness in Operation
- [30-Day Ceasefire?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/03/11/30-day-ceasefire/) - The U.S. and Ukraine have agreed to a thirty-day ceasefire. Russia now has to agree. Terms are (according to the news reports): Immediate 30-day ceasefire. The United States immediately lifts its pause on sharing intelligence with Ukraine and resumes security assistance to that country. This appears to occur even if Russia does not agree to
- [We have uploaded nine videos from the Third HAAC (2024) to our YouTube channel](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/03/11/we-have-uploaded-nine-videos-from-the-third-haac-2024-to-our-youtube-channel/) - We have uploaded nine videos from the Third HAAC (8 - 10 October 2024) to our YouTube Channel: The Dupuy Institute - YouTube. We have also loaded over the weekend the last five videos from the First HAAC: We have finally uploaded the last five videos from the First HAAC (2022) - The Dupuy Institute.
- [We have finally uploaded the last five videos from the First HAAC (2022)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/03/10/we-have-finally-uploaded-the-last-five-videos-from-the-first-haac-2022/) - The First HAAC (Historical Analysis Annual Conference) was held on 27-29 September 2022. We have finally uploaded all the videos we have from that conference to The Dupuy Institute site on YouTube. The original final conference schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 - The
- [The Hunting Falcon is available in the UK](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/03/08/hunting-falcon-is-available-today-in-the-uk/) - Hunting Falcon, as of today, is now available on Amazon.com UK. The site has the release date of 6 March 2025. It has a list price of £25 and they are selling it right now at a 25% discount for £18.71: The Hunting Falcon: The Story of WW1 German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke: Amazon.co.uk: Lawrence, Christopher
- [Force Ratios in the Russo-Ukrainian War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/02/25/force-ratios-in-the-russo-ukrainian-war/) - Lots of discussion going on about strengths in Ukraine and Russia and therefore force ratios. I have stayed away from talking about this, because I have other things going on (primarily writing and editing books). In the end, you don't get a book done by blogging and engaging in debates on Twitter (now called X).
- [The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 - 23 October 2025](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/02/26/the-fourth-haac-is-scheduled-for-21-23-october-2025/) - The Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is scheduled for 21 - 23 October 2025 at Tysons Corner, VA (just outside of DC). It is at the same facility, same times, and same type of schedule as the previous three conferences. Also, same price ($150 for three days). Virtual attendance is possible. The conference is
- [Three long years of war](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/02/24/three-long-years-of-war/) - Three long years of war, sad to say. This book covers the first six weeks of the war. It is an attempt at a military history of the war. It is the first in a series, with The Siege of Mariupol being the second book and currently in editing. The third book in the series
- [Proposed book cover for The Hunting Falcon](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/02/20/proposed-book-cover-for-the-hunting-falcon/) - A commentator on our last post on The Hunting Falcon stated that "Chris, you have very good book cover designers." See: The Hunting Falcon to be released in the UK on Friday, 14 February - The Dupuy Institute Now, our original cover recommendation to Pen & Sword was this: This was kind of my recommendation,
- [Presentation on Aces at Kursk on Wednesday, 19 February, 800 PM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/02/17/presentation-on-aces-at-kursk-on-wednesday-19-february-700-pm/) - I will be making a presentation about my book Aces at Kursk on Wednesday, 19 February, 800 PM on Greg McNiff's World War II Discussion Forum: World War II Discussion Forum | Home. There is a zoom link on that page for that presentation. Also it is here: Launch Meeting - ZoomMr. McNiff's program is
- [Books and public sources that describe the QJM and TNDM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/02/18/books-that-describe-the-qjm-and-tndm/) - The QJM (Quantified Judgment Model) and TNDM (Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model are two combat models that Trevor Dupuy developed first in 1977 as the QJM, and then heavily revised and released in 1990 at the TNDM. We do sell a computerized version of the TNDM along with manuals and training courses but at a price
- [Shaping the Russo-Ukrainian Peace Negotiations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/02/12/shaping-the-russo-ukrainian-peace-negotiations/) - It appears that the United States had begun shaping the Russo-Ukrainian Peace Negotiations. Not sure why they would choose to do so now, but their two main points are: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday called Ukraine’s desire to recover all of the territory it has lost to Russia since 2014 an “unrealistic objective,” Any
- [The Hunting Falcon to be released in the UK on Friday, 14 February](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/02/12/the-hunting-falcon-to-be-released-in-the-uk-on-friday-14-february/) - The Hunting Falcon is being released in the UK the Friday, 14 February.According to Amazon.com it will be released in the U.S. March 31, 2025. The Hunting Falcon covers the story of the third German ace to be awarded the Blue Max, after Immelmann and Boelcke. Hans-Joachim Buddecke was the fighter pilot and squadron leader
- [Ukrainian Corps](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/02/11/ukrainian-corps/) - MilitaryLand.net on Twitter (X) stated last week that "The Ukrainian Army is reportedly planning to establish up to 20 Army Corps, including the 3rd and Azov Corps, with each corps consisting of at least five brigades."Now, this would imply that there are 100 Ukrainian brigades. At the start of war in February 24, 2022 Ukraine
- [Situation in Ukraine, 3 February 2025](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/02/04/situation-in-ukraine-february-2025/) - I have not blogged for a while. Been focused on books recently (and they do require some focus).Anyhow, nothing earthshaking has been going on in Ukraine and it does not appear that we are on the verge of achieving "peace for our time," so the war does continue. Wanted to tag for a moment where
- [The History of the DuWar Data Bases](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/12/14/the-history-of-the-duwar-data-bases/) - The original databases of battles was developed by Trevor Dupuy and HERO (Historical Evaluation and Research Organization) back in the 1980s. They were published in a six volume work in 1983 as the HERO Land Warfare Data Base. This is back in the days when a data base did not have to be computerized (paper
- [The Current Ukrainian Offensive - resolved?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/01/09/the-current-ukrainian-offensive-resolved/) - Well, so far it doesn't look like the current Ukrainian offense, that started on Sunday 5 January, was not all that much. They took the town of Berdin and I gather 20 or so square kilometers of territory. To put that in perspective, Washington DC is 177 sq km. Anyhow, it appeared the Ukrainian attack
- [The Current Ukrainian Offensive](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2025/01/06/the-current-ukrainian-offensive/) - Ukrainian offensives do get my attention because I believe that to negotiate a peace settlement that does not permanently surrender 20% of their country Ukraine will probably need to start retaking some of that ground. They really have not reclaimed any more of their own territory since November 2022. But they are on the offensive
- [PLA Rocket Force](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/12/pla-rocket-force/) - The following article is from Alexandru Filip of the Canadian Center for Strategic Studies: ------ During our discussion sessions on 13 and 27 November on the topic of Taiwan, a further exchanged developed regarding the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force’s significant missile stocks and the effects it may have in a war. While there is a
- [The Ninth Anniversary of the Blog](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/27/the-ninth-anniversary-of-the-blog/) - The first post on this blog was made December 27, 2015. See: Welcome to Mystics & Statistics - The Dupuy Institute. This was done at the instigation of Dr. Shawn Woodford. He came up with the idea, sold it to me, designed the blog and did most of the really popular posts on the blog
- [An Old Book Review for War by Numbers](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/31/an-old-book-review-for-war-by-numbers/) - This link below is a book review of War by Numbers published in the Army University Press. It was published in 2017 (the same year the book came out): War by Numbers. It just got forwarded to me by an associate but I have been aware of this favorable review for a while. Of course,
- [Top Twenty blog posts](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/30/top-twenty-blog-posts/) - What are our twenty most popular blog posts (based upon the most number of hits on the blog):1. U.S. Tank Losses and Crew Casualties in World War II - The Dupuy Institute 2. The Russian Artillery Strike That Spooked The U.S. Army - The Dupuy Institute 3. Wounded-To-Killed Ratios - The Dupuy Institute 4. Population
- [Dupuy's Verities vs the Russo-Ukrainian War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/26/dupuys-verities-vs-the-russo-ukrainian-war/) - So, we have had almost three full years of conventional war in and around Ukraine. Back in the 1970s- 1980s Trevor Dupuy assembled a list of factors (or verities) that influence and describe conventional combat. They covered combat in three different areas. They were 1) The Timeless Verities of Combat (13 verities), 2) Combat Attrition
- [Shout out to Echoes of Past](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/24/shout-out-to-echoes-of-past/) - I do want to make a shout out to Echoes of Past who keeps posting quotes by my book War by Numbers and from Trevor Dupuy's books. His twitter account is here: Echoes of Past (@EchoesofpastX) / XThis includes: Echoes of Past on X: "4/5 "We can still lose this war. . . . The
- [Aces at Kursk and Soviet Kill Claims](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/23/aces-at-kursk-and-soviet-kill-claims/) - The following 2019 blog post is getting some attention lately on military history forums: So What Was Driving the Soviet Kill Claims? - The Dupuy Institute This was drawn from my original 1,662 page Kursk book and was repeated in my new book Aces at Kursk: Aces at Kursk: The Battle for Aerial Supremacy on
- [We are on Blue Sky and Threads](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/20/we-are-on-blue-sky-and-threads/) - In addition to re-posting on Twitter (now known as X), we are on Blue Sky and Threads. Our social media outreach includes:X: The Dupuy Institute (TDI) (@dupuyinstitute) / X Bluesky: @dupuyinstitute.bsky.social — Bluesky Threads: (2) Christopher Alan Lawrence (@dupuyinstitute) • Threads, Say more Facebook: (20+) Facebook LinkedIn: The Dupuy Institute | LinkedInRight now, we are regularly cross posting
- [Chinese RoRo ferries and Amphibious Vehicles](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/19/chinese-roro-ferries-and-amphibious-vehicles/) - Another blog post from Geoffrey Clark addressing details of amphibious possibilities for an invasion of Taiwan. These discussions are not coordinated, but it is a nice supplemental piece to my blog post: The RoRo Ships - The Dupuy Institute. The bolding in the text below is mine. --------------------- Title: Chinese RoRo ferries and Amphibious Vehicles
- [We are sold out of Attrition](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/18/we-are-sold-out-of-attrition/) - We are sold out of the book Attrition. Oddly enough, in the last two weeks I have received three orders for it. I kind of hate to not respond to a request. So, we are talking to the Dupuy family to find out what it would cost to print another 100-200 copies. We sold 54
- [On (Maneuver) War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/17/on-maneuver-war/) - Another blog post from William "Chip" Sayers. The opinions presented are his own, and he is not shy. My one editorial comment is in brackets. The blog post and William F. Owen article he references is here: The Manoeuvre Warfare Fraud ? - The Dupuy Institute and The Manoeuvre Warfare Fraud | Small Wars Journal
- [Taiwan Invasion: What is everyone else saying and why? - part 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/16/taiwan-invasion-what-is-everyone-else-saying-and-why-part-1/) - In our internal discussions, even though several of us could only find the means for China to lift 20,000 to 30,000 troops to Taiwan in the first wave, there was always people quoting from a range of sources that were saying something far different (see: The Chinese amphibious lift capacity - The Dupuy Institute). Who
- [The Shot Heard Around the World](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/13/the-shot-heard-around-ukraine/) - Another blog post from William "Chip" Sayers:---------------- Week before last, Russia launched what was probably a small number of RS-26 Rubezh Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM) at the city of Dnipro in Ukraine.[1] There are a number of interesting points to this incident, as well as a number of misconceptions. Let’s try to make sense
- [Modern Missiles - Russian, Chinese and American, Part 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/11/modern-missiles-russian-chinese-and-american-part-1/) - First of a series of blog posts from Geoffry Clark on modern missiles:--------------- Modern missiles – Russian, Chinese and American, Part 1 Mentioned in the previous post on the Zhuhai Air Show (see The Japanese Gifu and Chinese Zhuhai Airshows, 2024 - The Dupuy Institute), the Chinese PLA have revealed two new systems in
- [Summation of the five Taiwan invasion posts](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/09/summation-of-the-five-taiwan-invasion-posts/) - As a result of discussions at the Third HAAC and two follow-up meetings with participants, I ended up making five posts last week on Chinese amphibious lift capacity and their ability to invade Taiwan, They are: The Chinese amphibious lift capacity - The Dupuy Institute The load on PLA Navy Amphibious Assault Ships - The
- [The RoRo Ships](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/05/the-roro-ships/) - China has a collection of dozens of Roll-on, Roll-off (RoRo) commercial transports that have had their ramps reinforced to be able to use heavy equipment. This has led to a number of people counting them as Chinese amphibious assets. They have used some of them for training exercises with the Chinese marines.The actual count of
- [Other Chinese landing craft](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/04/other-chinese-landing-craft/) - Now China has a load of other smaller landing craft. These include (chart courtesy of Geoffrey Clark): LCM Ex-US LSM-1 Hua 0 14 480 LCM Type 079II Yulian 30 730 LCM Type 271I Yuwei 3 1 500 LCM Type 271II Yuwei 9 9 500 LCM Type 271IID Yuwei 30 290 500 LCM Type 271IIIA
- [The Chinese amphibious lift capacity](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/02/the-chinese-amphibious-lift-capacity/) - During the Third HAAC a discussion developed over what is the amphibious lift capacity of the armed forces of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). This is, of course, directly related to the issue of whether China can successfully invade and conquer Taiwan. We then held follow-up discussions with some the HAAC attendees on the
- [The Dogs of Chernobyl](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/11/28/dogs-of-chernobyl/) - Totally unrelated to what we usually blog about, but I found this interesting: https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.ade2537 The dogs of Chernobyl: Demographic insights into populations inhabiting the nuclear exclusion zone | Science Advances Not sure what lessons I should draw from this.
- [F-16s for Ukraine: Game Changer or Resource Waster?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/11/07/f-16s-for-ukraine-game-changer-or-resource-waster/) - Another posting from William (Chip) Sayers, who started his career in the air force: -------- F-16s for Ukraine: Game Changer or Resource Waster? Now that the Biden Administration has finally decided to allow the Ukrainian Air Force to receive F-16 Falcons (or as they are known by their pilots, “Vipers”), a lot of pushback has
- [The Chinese fishing fleet as an amphibious asset](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/06/the-chinese-fishing-fleet-as-an-amphibious-asset/) - Now, China being a communist country (with a strong capitalistic bent) does have the ability to call upon all civilian and commercial assets for use by the state. As such, some people postulate that many of their larger fishing vessels can be used as amphibious assets. Now, as an amusing exercise one of our associates
- [The Structure of the Chinese Armed Forces](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/10/the-structure-of-the-chinese-armed-forces/) - A blog post on a potential Taiwan invasion from Geoffrey Clark: The HAAC 2024 in October was great; lots of good analysts and analysis, presentations, and ideas for future work and collaboration. I’ll post the links to the two presentations that I gave here: Data for Air Combat Modeling in Network Centric Warfare A Naval
- [The load on PLA Navy Amphibious Assault Ships](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/12/03/the-load-on-pla-navy-amphibious-assault-ships/) - We state is our post yesterday that "China has the ability land over 20,000 soldiers on Taiwan on the first wave." Now three different people in our conference on 13 November independently did counts. They all ended up in the 20,000 to 25,000 range. Here is my count: 4 landing ship dock 28 helicopters each
- [Our expanded media outreach](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/11/26/expanded-our-media-outreach/) - We have typically only cross-posted this blog to Twitter (now X). We sometimes cross posted to Facebook and Linkedin, but have not been able to do that regularly. We are trying to expand out media outreach, especially as it is clear that there is not a single central town square. So our social media outreach
- [EMA versus RMA](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/11/25/ema-versus-rma/) - Working on more than two books at the moment (not sure this is the best idea). Just proofing a chapter in one book on the Russo-Ukrainian War and noted the following paragraph I had written about the war. Is this meaningful dialogue or am I just stepping in it? It has been claimed by one
- [The Five TMCI Reports](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/11/22/the-tmci-reports/) - The Military Conflict Institute (TMCI) was founded in 1979 by Trevor N. Dupuy, Dr. Donald S. Marshall at University of California, Berkely, and General George S. Blanchard. These guys: Trevor N. Dupuy - Wikipedia and George S. Blanchard - Wikipedia. The TMCI closed shop in 2020, in part due to its membership aging out: TMCI
- [The Japanese Gifu and Chinese Zhuhai Airshows, 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/11/21/the-japanese-gifu-and-chinese-zhuhai-airshows-2024/) - Continuing with a weekly post from Geof Clark, an American currently residing in Japan:---------------- Title: Japanese Gifu and Chinese Zhuhai Airshows, 2024 Image credit @AfbR681dzgszG1ahttps://twitter.com/AfbR681dzgszG1a/status/1858810386805649512/photo/4 Recently, I attended an airshow at the Japanese Air Self-Defense Forces (JASDF) air base in Gifu Prefecture. According to the JASDF, about 65,000 people attended. This included many interesting aircraft,
- [Ukraine's nuclear weapons](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/11/15/ukraines-nuclear-weapons/) - My primary focus at the moment is writing books, currently wrapping up two and well into the next. A chapter in the new book on the Russo-Ukrainian War is called Defense Budgets and International Aid. It starts as follows: ------- The United States and other members of NATO started providing
- [Ukraine to develop nukes ?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/11/14/ukraine-to-develop-nukes/) - Ukraine once had nukes. It gave them up in the 1990s in exchange for an agreement with the U.S., Russia and UK securing their borders and sovereignty. That did not work out so well (will probably do a post on this later). Now, Zelenskyy has recently talked about Ukraine developing a nuclear weapon. It was
- [Modern Air Combat Data](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/11/13/modern-air-combat-data/) - We are going to hand the forum over to Geoffrey Clark for one day a week. Mr. Clark has posted here before and presented at the last two HAACs. He will end up doing a series of posts each Wednesday on Modern Air Combat Data. This is his introductory post:---------------------------- Air Combat Data, modern Air
- [U.S. Military Contractors in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/11/12/u-s-military-contractors-in-ukraine/) - Not sure how significant this story is, but it came out this weekend, so I thought I would repost it: Biden administration to allow American military contractors to deploy to Ukraine for first time since Russia’s invasion. I gather this came about because of the need to provide maintenance and logistic support for the F-16s
- [Front Line Traces in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/07/30/front-line-traces-in-ukraine/) - With the help of some volunteer labor, we have produced a more precise set of front-line traces. I have done a couple of quick and dirty estimates before, but I never took the time to measuring it up right. Now we have done something a little more exacting. The google maps with the borders that
- [The Manoeuvre Warfare Fraud ?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/10/24/the-manoeuvre-warfare-fraud/) - Below is a link to a 2008 article by William F. Owen called "The Manoeuvre Warfare Fraud." Definitely worth a read no matter where you stand in the debate. This is a debate I am aware of, although I tend to stay out of. It is difficult in some discussions to add much of quantitative
- [Project SKYSWEEPER](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/10/23/project-skysweeper/) - This is a new blog post from TDI associate Chip Sayers, who has able to make the Third HAAC in person this time: Project SKYSWEEPER Armed First-Person Point of View (FPV) drone use in war zones has become a major topic of discussion in the last number of months and news this week of multiple
- [October's Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 8 - 10 October 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/10/03/octobers-revised-schedule-for-the-third-historical-analysis-conference-haac-8-10-october-2024/) - The Third HAAC is next week. Currently there are 40 presentations (and 2 group discussions). The current schedule is:Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference CenterRevised 7 October 2024Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat 0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) 0930 – 1030 Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn
- [Stanley Cup Playoffs Odds II](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2018/05/24/stanley-cup-playoffs-ii/) - Instead of blogging about quantitative analysis of warfare....I have been watching hockey. Sorry. When I blogged about this last time, the Washington Capitals has won the first two games of the seven-game series. One of the commentators states that only twice in the last 41 years (or cases) has a team won the third series
- [September's Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 - 10 October 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/09/01/septembers-revised-schedule-for-the-third-historical-analysis-annual-conference-hac-8-10-october-2024/) - The Third HAAC is coming in six weeks and we are still getting more presentations. Now up to 45 (and 2 group discussions). Setting up a third conference room on Wednesday to handle the overflow. So will have a separate conference room on Tuesday for mostly Naval Warfare Analysis and a new third separate conference room
- [Five presentations from the second day of the First HAAC (2022)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/09/19/five-presentations-from-the-second-day-of-the-first-haac-2022/) - Below are the five recorded presentations from the second day of the first HAAC in 2022. These are all the presentations from the Einstein Conference Room. We do not have videos of the presentations done that day from the Pike & Gallows Conference Room. We do have hard copies of them (see link below).What was
- [September's Announcement for the Third HAAC, 8-10 October](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/09/16/septembers-announcement-for-the-third-haac-8-10-october/) - The Third HAAC is occurring on 8 – 10 October in Tysons Corner. There are currently 43 presentations planned and two group discussions.The current schedule is here (updated 17 September): September’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024 - The Dupuy Institute The conference is also posted
- [What is happening with the Pokrovsk offensive?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/09/12/what-is-happening-with-the-pokrovsk-offensive/) - Of course, the main offensive this summer has been the Russian offensive towards Pokrovsk. The Second Battle of Kursk is kind of a sideshow. But this offensive toward Pokrovsk has been dragging on all summer, advancing very slowly across ground of no particular significance towards an objective of no particular significance. Lately, as they get
- [So what have the Russians lost around Sudzha?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/09/11/so-what-have-the-russians-lost-around-sudzha/) - Warspotting is a site that takes all those reports and photographs of tanks, IFVs and other vehicles and equipment destroyed, and plots them to a map. They are here: Map ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war They do report for August and September of 2024 a number of Russian vehicles in and
- [Second Battle of Kursk - part two](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/09/10/second-battle-of-kursk-part-two/) - The original Battle of Kursk (4 July - 23 August 1943) was actually the single largest battle in World War II. This one is a lot smaller. One will note that this map (from the book Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka) does include Sudzha, just to the northeast of Sumy. Now I have blogged about
- [August's Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 - 10 October 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/08/01/augusts-revised-schedule-for-the-third-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-8-10-october-2024/) - The third HAAC is coming up in less than three months. The current schedule is: Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center Updated: revised 31 August 2024 Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat 0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) 0930 – 1030 Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr.
- [Announcements for the Third HAAC, 8-10 October](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/08/28/the-three-announcements-for-the-third-haac-8-10-october/) - The Third HAAC is occurring on 8 - 10 October in Tysons Corner. There are currently 38 presentations planned and two group discussions.The current schedule is here (updated 15 August): August’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024 - The Dupuy Institute and here: HAAC 2024: Third
- [New 1420 Moscow street interviews are back on YouTube](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/08/26/1420-moscow-interviews-are-back-on-youtube/) - Well, it looks like 1420 is back in action and posting on YouTube. It is a Moscow based site where the young adult (Daniil Orain) who ran it did street interviews in Moscow about current events. He later expanded the interview to other cities, towns and villages. It was interesting to hear the responses of
- [Video presentations from the second day of the first HAAC](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/08/20/video-presentations-from-the-second-day-of-the-first-haac/) - We had some issues with zoom and videos on the second day of the conference, so do not have videos of half the presentations that day. The schedule for that first conference is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 - The Dupuy Institute The slides for
- [Video presentations from the first day of the First HAAC](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/08/19/presentations-from-the-first-day-of-the-first-haac/) - We are back to posting up videos of the first two HAAC conferences. What we have already posted from the first conference was copies of the slides for 31 presentations and videos of the first day of presentations. The 31 presentations: Presentations from the first HAAC – all three days - The Dupuy Institute Opening
- [The Second Battle of Kursk](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/08/15/the-second-battle-of-kursk/) - The Battle of Kursk (1943) was the largest battle of World War II. I have three books out on the subject (the big book, The Battle of Prokhorovka and Aces at Kursk). There are two more planned (The Battle of Tolstoye Woods and The Tank Fields of Prokhorovka). I also have one book out in
- [Area Taken in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/08/03/area-taken-in-ukraine/) - Just saw some great graphics from @War_Mapper that is worth repeating (dating goes from Feb. 2022 to July 2024). His map as of 1 August is here: Now, he is saying that for the month of July there was a net gain of around 177 square kilometers (68 square miles). This is kind of like
- [I was in Liverpool](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/07/25/i-was-in-liverpool/) - My grandfather was born in Rhyl Wales and grew up in Liverpool England. Here is a copy of his shipping record during the Great War. He did five voyages during the war. He did a voyage to Murmansk afterwards during the Russian Civil War (which I have blogged about twice: see Murmansk - The Dupuy
- [Casemate has Aces at Kursk](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/08/07/casemate-has-aces-at-kursk/) - Casemate Publishers (U.S. - Philadelphia/Haverford), who published my book America's Modern Wars (hardcopies are here: Books - The Dupuy Institute), is advertising my book Aces at Kursk for sale. This is the email they sent me: New Releases! (mailchi.mp)
- [The Russians are continuing to advance in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/08/02/the-russian-are-continuing-to-advance-in-ukraine/) - The war is really not stalemated. The Russians continue to advance in Ukraine. This is causing some concern. In the Pokrovsk area, the Russians are advancing at a rate of up to a kilometer a day. They have advanced 8 kilometers over the last two weeks (according to @J_Jhelin). They are threatening the village of
- [We have sold out of Attrition](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/07/29/we-have-sold-out-of-attrition/) - Attrition: Forecasting Battle Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War is no longer for sale by The Dupuy Institute. We sent out our last two copies last week. We still hold copies of everything else listed here: Books - The Dupuy Institute If you want Attrition, it is available on Amazon.com, but at a hefty
- [Aces at Kursk is for sale on Amazon.com (U.S.)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/07/26/aces-at-kursk-is-for-sale-on-amazon-com-u-s/) - It looks like Aces at Kursk is for sale in the U.S. on Amazon.com. The link is here: Aces at Kursk: The Battle for Aerial Supremacy on the Eastern Front, 1943: Lawrence, Christopher A: 9781399081436: Amazon.com: Books Yesterday they were reporting 19 in stock, this morning it was 16. So it does look like they
- [Recent Russo-Ukrainian War Blog Posts](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/07/24/recent-ukraine-war-blog-posts/) - See how it may be a bit before I start blogging again on Ukraine, let me list our most recent Russo-Ukrainian war blog posts:Day 846 – So how goes the war? - The Dupuy Institute This is over a month old. The front is really not 1,200 kilometers long – rev. 1 - The Dupuy
- [Last Six Blog Posts](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/07/23/last-six-blog-posts/) - I was quiet last week because I was on travel. Here are my last six blog posts before I went silent: The front is really not 1,200 kilometers long – rev. 1 - The Dupuy Institute Density of Deployment in Ukraine - The Dupuy Institute People keep referencing us on the 3-to-1 Rule - The
- [July's Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 - 10 October 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/07/22/julys-revised-schedule-for-the-third-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-8-10-october-2004/) - Had an informative, interesting and enjoyable visit to York, UK to attend the Niall MacKay organized HADSS: Final Schedule for HADSS 2024 - The Dupuy InstituteGood stuff and a wonderful city. My understanding is that the next HADSS will be held there in 2026.Meanwhile, the third HAAC is coming up in less than three months.
- [Warbirds Over the Beach Airshow 3 (Sopwith 1 1/2 Strutter)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/10/18/warbirds-over-the-beach-airshow-3/) - In early October I spent the weekend in Virginia Beach at the “Warbirds Over the Beach” airshow. This third post on the air show includes some more of the pictures I took, and a few other more “professional” pictures. After immersing myself in the thrilling displays at "Warbirds Over the Beach" in Virginia Beach, I
- [Aces at Kursk is available in the UK](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/07/10/aces-at-kursk-is-available-in-the-uk/) - At last, Aces at Kursk is available in the UK. I am guessing it will be in the U.S. by 25 July. Pen and Sword Books: Aces at Kursk - Hardback (pen-and-sword.co.uk)
- [Definition of Limited War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/07/11/definition-of-limited-war/) - Just for the record, here is the definition of a "limited war" from The Dictionary of Military Terms, by Trevor N. Dupuy, Curt Johnson and Grace P. Hayes (1986). page 137. Limited war - 1) A war looked upon by one or more of its contestants as not involving its own sovereignty or most vital
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War is still a limited war](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/07/09/the-russo-ukrainian-war-is-still-sort-of-a-limited-war/) - It may not feel that way to a lot of the participants, but the Russo-Ukrainian War is still a limited war. It is not like WWI or WWII and is not likely the opening shots in WWIII. It is a limited war over limited territorial objectives. For Ukraine, it is nominally a war for national
- [Density of Deployment in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/07/02/density-of-deployment-in-ukraine-2/) - It appears that both sides have deployed between 300,000 to 617,000 troops in this war. Putin claimed 617,000 deployed in mid-December. To quote "The front line is over 2,000 kilometers long, there are 617,000 people in the conflict zone." See: Putin Says Over 600K Russian Servicemen in Ukraine - The Moscow Times. Ukraine shortly afterwards
- [People keep referencing us on the 3-to-1 Rule](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/07/04/people-keep-referencing-us-on-the-3-to-1-rule/) - Several people in their articles have referenced a 3-to-1 rule and then reference us as the source. The latest example is in a German article on Taiwan: Storming Taiwan by force of arms? | Telepolis Of course, we are the people who are saying the 3-to-1 rule is really not correct. They obviously do not
- [Day 846 - So how goes the war?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/06/18/day-846-so-how-goes-the-war/) - First, no major Russian offensive has appeared. At this point, half way through June, I do not think we are going to see a summer offensive. It is a stagnated war, with the armies nibbling at various parts of the line, but nothing really major happening. Russia is still on the offensive, but their advances
- [Aces at Kursk should be out in early July](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/06/25/aces-at-kursk-should-be-out-in-early-july/) - According to Pen & Sword, the printers should be delivering Aces at Kursk next Friday (the 5th of July) to their warehouse, and so the stock should be booked in the week commencing 8th July, all being well. Right now, Amazon UK is showing its release date as 30 Jan. 2024. Amazon US is showing
- [The front is really not 1,200 kilometers long - rev. 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/06/27/the-front-is-really-not-1200-kilometers-long-rev-1/) - Doing a little revision to a previous blog post: The front is really not 1,200 kilometers long - The Dupuy Institute Lot’s of people throw out the figure that the front line is 1,200 kilometers long. Not really. The length of the border of Ukraine (pre-2014) with Russia is 1,974 kilometers (1,227 miles). This is
- [The front is really not 1,200 kilometers long](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/23/the-front-is-really-not-1200-kilometers-long/) - Lot's of people throw out the figure that the front line is 1,200 kilometers long. Not really. The length of the border of Ukraine (pre-2014) with Russia is 1,974 kilometers (1,227 miles). This is the land border. The length of the border with Belarus (which I do not think is going to re-enter this contest)
- [The second half of the RMA podcast is out](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/06/20/the-second-half-of-the-rma-podcast-is-out/) - The second half of the RMA podcast by Amos Fox on the Battle of Kyiv is out. I am the interviewee. It is here: Christopher Lawrence, Part II: Russia-Ukraine War - Revolution in Military Affairs | AcastThe first half is here: https://shows.acast.com/650105b75a8d440011ecd53c/666f739ffb889700139c5124
- [Final Schedule for HADSS 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/06/19/final-schedule-for-hadss-2024/) - The Historical Analysis for Defence and Security Symposium (HADSS) is scheduled for 8-11 July at the University of York. The final schedule for the conference is here: HADSS_programme_final Description of the conference is here Historical Analysis for Defence and Security Symposium | ICMS – International Centre for Mathematical Sciences. York seems like a really cool city.
- [The RMA podcast is out](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/06/17/the-rma-podcast-is-out/) - The RMA podcast by Amos Fox is out. I am the interviewee. I have not listened to it and am afraid to do so. Never completely happy with my interviews (or my books, or my reports, or my blog posts). Anyhow, it is here: https://shows.acast.com/650105b75a8d440011ecd53c/666f739ffb889700139c5124
- [Wargaming 101 - The 40-60-80 Games](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/15/wargaming-101-the-40-60-80-games/) - Yet another great article from William (Chip) Sayers. First of three that are coming. The conclusions are his. -------Wargaming 101 – The 40-60-80 GamesShortly after the George H. W. Bush Administration entered office in 1989 a story — probably apocryphal — was making the rounds. In the story, President Bush and the Chairman of the Joint
- [The end of the flat tax in Russia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/06/13/the-end-of-the-flat-tax-in-russia/) - Russia is one of those few places on the planet that implemented a flat-tax system, a darling idea of the American neo-conservative movement in the 1980s that never really did pass the smell test (forgive me for getting a little political). But, by one of the accidents of nature, several U.S. conservative economic advisors got
- [Award Dates for the Blue Max (1916)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/04/award-dates-for-the-blue-max-1916/) - Still sidetracked somewhat on the Great War air research. Sorry if this does not hold the interest of many of you. I have been examining the list of the first German aviators who received the Pour le Merite, commonly called the Blue Max, named after its first recipient, Max Immelmann. A total of 13 pilots
- [Putin releases captured figures](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/06/07/putin-releases-captured-figures/) - Update on the number of captured: "At a meeting in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, Putin told the heads of several international news agencies that there are 1,348 Russian troops and officers in captivity in Ukraine compared to the 6,465 Ukrainians in Russian detention." See: Putin makes rare claim on Ukraine war casualties (msn.com) Now, I
- [Army- and Division-level force ratio posts](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/06/11/army-and-division-level-force-ratio-posts/) - I did five posts on analyzing force ratios using the campaign database. They are here: Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) - The Dupuy Institute Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – continued - The Dupuy Institute Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB)
- [Mutiny in Murmansk](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/06/06/mutiny-in-murmansk/) - I will be over in York (U.K.) for the HADSS Symposium in July (see Schedule for HADSS 2024 - The Dupuy Institute) and then heading over to Liverpool. My grandfather was a sailor from Liverpool. I have blogged about him before: Murmansk - The Dupuy InstituteHe did end up in Murmansk in 1919. There was
- [Russia withdraws from Kharkiv province?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/28/russia-withdraws-from-kharkiv-province/) - It appears that Ukraine has retaken parts of Kharkiv province: Zelenskiy Confirms Ukrainian Forces Regain Control Over Kharkiv Border Amid Russian Offensive (msn.com). The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelelskyy, announced on Friday (24 May) that Ukraine had retaken control over the border areas. Russia is still claiming to control half of Vovchansk, which is 3 miles
- [Updated Schedule for HADSS 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/06/05/updated-schedule-for-hadss-2024/) - The Historical Analysis for Defence and Security Symposium (HADSS) is scheduled for 8-11 July at the University of York. The provisional schedule for the conference is here: HADSS_programme v4 Description of the conference is here Historical Analysis for Defence and Security Symposium | ICMS – International Centre for Mathematical Sciences and here: Weighing the Fog of War
- [The Russian march tables for Kyiv](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/06/04/the-russian-march-tables-for-kyiv/) - What has been released by Ukrainian intelligence is the Russian march tables for the forces coming down from Belarus and down to Kyiv. It was only the first page, so was not complete. The units are listed down the left and the locations they are supposed to be at are listed across the top. The
- [IDF Wounded-to-Killed Ratios](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/30/idf-wounded-to-killed-ratios/) - We have the following data for the Israeli Defense Forces from their website here: IDF Fallen and Wounded in War | ATC (www.idf.il). Killed: Killed since the beginning of the war (7 October 2023): 639 Killed: 290 dead (fighting in the Gaza Strip from 27 October 2023 to 29 May 2024 among those "whose names
- [Next Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 - 10 October 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/22/next-revised-schedule-for-the-third-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-8-10-october-2024/) - This is the third provisional schedule for the third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 29 presentations scheduled by 20 speakers and two group discussions planned. We are looking for more presentations. Have slots still open for seven more presentations (although I can add more slots). Each slot is an hour long, so
- [There may not be a major Russian spring/summer offensive](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/21/there-may-not-be-a-major-russian-spring-summer-offensive/) - There may not be an actual major spring/summer Russian offensive. Let's look at the scenario for a moment:1. They are aware that their deployed strength is similar to the Ukraniain strength. They have at best a 1.5-to-1 advantage and may have less. See: Overview of the War in Ukraine going into the Spring/Summer Offensive Season
- [Updating our Website](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/17/updating-our-website/) - We are in the process of updating the look of our blog and our website. We welcome any comments or criticisms. There is no button right now going back to our original website (it is also going to be updated). It is here: Home Page (dupuyinstitute.org)
- [Podcast on The Battle for Kyiv](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/03/podcast-on-the-battle-for-kyiv/) - I will be doing a Podcast on 2 PM (EST), 7 PM (UK time), on The Battle for Kyiv: The Battle for Kyiv by Christopher A Lawrence Tickets, Tue 7 May 2024 at 19:00 | Eventbrite It is free to attend.I will be speaking for about 40 minutes and then there will be 20 minutes
- [Overview of the War in Ukraine going into the Spring/Summer Offensive Season](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/14/overview-of-the-war-in-ukraine-going-into-the-spring-summer-offensive-season/) - I am being told by "advisors" to start blogging again about the war in Ukraine. "That is what everyone really cares about, not the little things that you have been posting about."Anyhow, my last direct blog post on the war was day 699: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 699 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). A
- [The 1420 YouTube site decided to quit doing street interviews](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/13/the-1420-youtube-site-decided-to-quit-doing-street-interviews/) - Turns out the lead of the 1420 site decided to quit doing street interviews because after four years of doing this, he wanted to move on to other things. His new site is here: (1) Daniil Orain - YouTubeHis explanatory video is here: Why I stopped doing the street interviews (youtube.com)The interviews are archived here:
- [French Estimate of Russian Killed in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/09/french-estimate-of-russian-killed-in-ukraine/) - Seems like everyone in and out of NATO has their own estimate of Russian losses. The current French estimate, according to their foreign minister, is 150,000 Russian soldiers killed and a total of 500,000 casualties. See: France's Shocking Estimation: 150,000 Russian Soldiers Dead in Ukraine War (msn.com)First reality check: Wounded-to-killed ratios. 500,000 - 150,000 =
- [It looks like 1420 may have quit broadcasting](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/08/it-looks-like-1420-may-have-quit-broadcasting/) - One of my favorite channels on YouTube to watch has been a site called "1420." I did mention it yesterday during the question and answer period of my podcast on The Battle for Kyiv It is a series of street interviews done in Moscow, St. Petersburg and at other locales across Russia asking people some
- [Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) - fourth and final continuation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/07/analysis-of-force-ratios-using-the-campaign-data-base-cadb-fourth-and-final-continuation/) - This is the fourth and final continuation of our previous four posts: Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – continued | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – second continuation
- [Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) - third continuation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/02/analysis-of-force-ratios-using-the-campaign-data-base-cadb-third-continuation/) - This is a continuation of our previous three posts: Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – continued | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – second continuation |
- [Dueling Defense Budgets](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/05/01/dueling-defense-budgets/) - The cold hard reality is that in the long run $$$ = combat power. This is a obvious little relationship that is often ignored. This was demonstrated in spades when Japan attacked a country in 1941 that had an economy more than ten times their size. Good luck with that one. It was also ignored
- [Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) - second continuation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/30/analysis-of-force-ratios-using-the-campaign-data-base-cadb-second-continuation/) - This is a continuation of our previous two posts: Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – continued | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). It is a part of a briefing on forces ratios I will be
- [Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/23/analysis-for-force-ratios-using-the-campaign-data-base-cadb/) - We have not made much use of our Campaign Data Base. (See: The History of the DuWar Data Bases | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)). We used it as part of the Enemy Prisoner of War (EPW) studies back in 2000-2001 and have not made use it in the last two decades. But, for a presentation
- [Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) - continued](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/25/analysis-for-force-ratios-using-the-campaign-data-base-cadb-continued/) - This is the continuation of our previous post: Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) In that post was a table showing the force and losses differences between battles won by the attacker, the defenders and those that are drawn. Below is a follow-up table, showing the
- [Measuring Unit Effectiveness in Italy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/01/30/measuring-unit-effectiveness-in-italy/) - We are in discussion over revisiting the measurement of combat effectiveness of select units in Italy 1943-1945. This was done by Trevor Dupuy in Numbers, Predictions and Wars (1977) by division using the QJM (Quantified Judgment Model) and was done in aggregate by me in War by Numbers (2017) using simply comparative statistics. If you
- [Schedule for HADSS 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/24/schedule-for-hadss-2024/) - The Historical Analysis for Defence and Security Symposium (HADSS) is scheduled for 8-11 July at the University of York. The provisional schedule for the conference is here:HADSS_programme v2 Description of the conference is here Historical Analysis for Defence and Security Symposium | ICMS - International Centre for Mathematical Sciences and here: Weighing the Fog of
- [The House passed the aid bill for Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/20/the-house-passed-the-aid-bill-for-ukraine/) - The House passed the aid bill for Ukraine. This was the hold up. It will now go to the Senate, which will approve and then to the President who will sign it. I assume it will be a done deal next week.The final vote was 311-112 (7 not voting and five unfilled seats). So ,72%
- [The 3-to-1 rule and the War in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/18/the-3-to-1-rule-and-the-war-in-ukraine/) - There is a 3-to-1 rule that some people quote from somewhere. We have discussed this before: Trevor Dupuy and the 3-1 Rule | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and The 3-to-1 Rule in Histories | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and The 3-to-1 Rule in Recent History Books | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Trevor Dupuy's argument was
- [Size of aid bill versus Russian defense budget](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/17/size-of-aid-bill-versus-russian-defense-budget/) - The military aid bill currently languishing in the House is $61 billion for Ukraine. It is reported (via Wikipedia) that the Russian defense budget in 2023 was only $86.4 billion. Now, I am not sure how accurate that figure is and whether it has gone up in 2024 (I assume it has). Also Russian labor
- [When does the campaign season start?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/16/when-does-the-campaign-season-start/) - The "Eastern Front" is driven by the weather conditions. Kharkov is almost on the 50 degree latitude. The majority of the population of Canada lives below that line. The extended western part of border between the U.S. and Canada is on the 49th latitude line. Winters are kind of cold there. Bad time for campaigning
- [Call Congress about Ukrainian aid](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/13/call-congress-about-ukrainian-aid/) - Advocacy is not our business, but there a $61 billion aid bill for Ukraine that is coming up in the House perhaps early next week. If you have an opinion on the subject, now is the time to call your congressman and let them know. The links are here: Ukraine - Call Congress. To have
- [Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8-10 October 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/03/27/revised-schedule-for-the-third-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-8-10-october-2024/) - This is the second provisional schedule for the third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 27 presentations scheduled by 19 speakers and two group discussions planned. We are looking for more presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so plan for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. The conference is at
- [Two missing reports - #26 and #27](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/09/two-missing-reports-26-and-27/) - As I was going through our early reports, it again came to my attention that we were missing two early reports. See: TDI - The Dupuy Institute Publications. They are: 26. Target/Range Experience for Tank & Antitank Weapons (1969) (Batelle) - Pages: NA 27. Historical Data on Tactical Air Operations: The Rome Campaign, 11 May-17
- [Personnel Attrition Rates....](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/04/personnel-attrition-rates/) - While searching the internet for something else, I ran across this April 1996 report by Dr. Robert L. Helmbold of CAA (Center for Army Analysis). Personnel Attrition Rates in Historical Land Combat Operations: Losses of National Populations, Armed Forces, Army Groups, and Lower Level Land Combat Forces. (dtic.mil)I am surprised that I have not seen
- [Tank Ditch at Prokhorovka](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/04/02/tank-ditch-at-prokhorovka/) - Recently got a request for a better map of the tank ditch at Prokhorovka. This request was in response to this post: Tank Losses on 12/13 July 1943 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)Instead of a map, Eugene Matyukhin provided me the following annotated aerial photographs taken at the time: A few blog posts related to
- [The 40% Rule](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/03/26/the-40-rule/) - Hadn't done a blog post in the while. Been focused on getting a book done. Sorry.There is a rule of thumb often quoted out there and often put in war games that a unit becomes ineffective or reaches a breakpoint at 40% casualties. The basis for this rule is a very limited body of studies
- [Let's talk about artillery shells](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/02/27/lets-talk-about-artillery-shells/) - Now, when we first did the validation database the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, one of the fields we had to fill in for each division, and corps, and army was on the tons of ammunition used each day by four types. This was because the combat models that were supposed to be validated using
- [Tank Losses and Crew Casualties in the Russo-Ukrainian War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/02/06/tank-losses-and-crew-casualties-in-the-russo-ukrainian-war/) - One of our more popular blog posts is this one: U.S. Tank Losses and Crew Casualties in World War II | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Now we were able to do a similar comparison of the personnel losses to tank losses for the Russian First Guards Tank Army from 24 February to 15 March 2022.
- [So, has Ukraine only lost 31,000 since the start of the war?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/02/26/so-has-ukraine-only-lost-31000-since-the-start-of-the-war/) - Well, Zelenskyy got my attention with his claim on Sunday that Ukraine has lost 31,000 killed in action since the start of the war. He also claimed that the Russians have lost 180,000. See: Zelenskyy says 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed since Russia invaded 2 years ago | CBC News).Several issues here:First, who makes up those
- [Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8-10 October 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/02/20/schedule-for-the-third-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-8-10-october-2024/) - This is the first provisional schedule for the third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 25 presentations scheduled by 17 speakers and two group discussions planned. We are looking for more presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so plan for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. The conference is at
- [Encyclopedia of Military History](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/02/21/encyclopedia-of-military-history/) - Long before the internet, people used to write (and read) encyclopedias. I still have a few in my house, including a Funk & Wagnalls (as in "look that up in your Funk & Wagnalls"). Just saw a twitter post yesterday that referenced Dupuy & Dupuy's Encyclopedia of Military History: Paul Poast on X: "To identify
- [The Russian First Tank Army Report from 24 February - 15 March 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/02/09/the-russian-first-tank-army-report-from-24-february-15-march-2022/) - Referenced this report in this blog post: Tank Losses and Crew Casualties in the Russo-Ukrainian War | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)The actual six pages of the report here, for those who can work in Russian (this is mostly a list of names and then equipment losses):
- [Last opposed amphibious operation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/02/08/last-opposed-amphibious-operation/) - I have written a paragraph in a book I am working on that states: It is probably also worth bearing in mind that the last opposed U.S. amphibious operation conducted by the U.S. Marine Corps was the landing at Tang Island in 1975, and since then, no nation has conducted a major amphibious operation against
- [Interesting review of The Battle for Kyiv](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/02/07/interesting-review-of-the-battle-for-kyiv/) - Just stumbled last night across this review of The Battle for Kyiv. It is an interesting take on the subject. The reviewer is someone I know. Draft history in The Battle of Kyiv: The Fight for Ukraine’s Capital by Christopher A. Lawrence – Armchair Dragoons Now, my nagging suspicion is that it will be a
- [Call for Presentations for the Third HAAC](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/02/01/call-for-presentations-for-the-third-haac/) - We are scheduling the Third HAAC in Tysons Corner, VA (just outside of DC) for 8-10 October 2024. Making a call for presentations at this time. Conference will be similar in structure to the previous conference: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
- [Losses in the Hamas-Israel War - Day 111](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/01/25/losses-in-the-hamas-israel-war-day-111/) - I have not blogged much about the Hamas-Israeli War since the first couple of days of the war (for example, see: Hamas-Israeli War – Day 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)). On Monday, 22 January, 24 Israeli soldiers were killed in one day. Twenty-one were killed in a single blast that collapsed two buildings. Previously,
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 699](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/01/23/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-700/) - I am back to blogging about the war in Ukraine. My last blog post was in October: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 589 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). I also did a few blog posts about the war between Hamas and Israel: Hamas-Israeli War – Day 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). I then got
- [The Battle for Kyiv will be released in the U.S. this Thursday](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/01/16/the-battle-for-kyiv-will-be-released-in-the-u-s-this-thursday/) - The release date in the U.S. for The Battle for Kyiv is 18 January 2024. It was already released in the UK as of 28 November 2023. Some people overseas have been reading it. One recent twitter post on the book has received over 563K hits and 323 retweets. See: John Helin on X. I
- [The Battle for Kyiv released in the U.S. Today](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/01/18/the-battle-for-kyiv-released-in-the-u-s-today/) - The Battle for Kyiv has been released today in the U.S. It is intended to be the first book in a series. Currently working on finishing up the second book of the series, The Siege of Mariupol. It is co-authored with Stefan Korshak. He is here: Stefan Korshak – Medium The third book of the
- [A Time for Crumpets](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2019/04/10/time-for-crumpets/) - Charles MacDonald published in 1985 A Time for Trumpets, one of the better books on the Battle of the Bulge (and there are actually a lot of good works on this battle). In there he recounted a story of why the German Panzer Lehr Panzer Division, commanded by General Fritz Bayerlein, was held up for
- [Battlefield Tour of the Ardennes](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/01/08/battlefield-tour-of-the-ardennes/) - Jay Karamales, the co-author of Against the Panzers and of the soon-to-be released Hunting Falcon, did record a video of his tour of the Ardennes in 1993. They are posted to YouTube. I just found out about it. So, the links to his YouTube videos are here: Day 1, England to La Gleize (youtube.com) Day 2,
- [Top Ten Blog posts in 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2024/01/04/top-ten-blog-posts-in-2023/) - Happy New Year to all. 2023 is over. Not the best year for many in the world. Wanted to take a moment to list out our top ten blog posts for 2023 (based upon number of hits). They are: Wounded-to-killed ratios in Ukraine in 2022 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) U.S. Tank Losses and Crew
- [Casualties in the Hamas-Israeli War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/12/24/casualties-in-the-hamas-israeli-war/) - There is an MSNBC news clip about casualties in the Hamas-Israeli War that is worth noting: Counting the casualties in an active warzone - YouTube I may comment on it at some point, but just wanted to bring it to people's attention for now. What is does say: More than 20,000 people have died in
- [Updated calendar for the Republican nomination](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/12/22/updated-calendar-for-the-republican-nomination/) - The calendar for the Republican Party nomination: 1) Four Republican primary debates have been completed, the field is pretty settled now (Trump, Haley and Desantis). Three more debates are scheduled for 10, 18 and 21 January. Trump has yet to attend one.2) Donald Trump currently leads the polling for the Republican Party presidential nomination by
- [Current book release schedule](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/11/29/current-book-release-schedule/) - I have four books in process or about to be released. They are:The Battle for Kyiv:- UK release date: 28 November- U.S. release date: 18 January 2024Aces at Kursk:- UK release date: 30 January 2024- U.S. release date: posted as 18 January 2024, but suspect release date will be in March 2024.Hunting Falcon:- UK release
- [Presentations from HAAC - Contentious Issues in Syria](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/08/presentations-from-haac-contentious-issues-in-syria/) - The sixth presentation of the second day was Contentious Issues in Syria: the Alawi Religion, their Political Struggles, Chemical Warfare in Syria and a Hypothesized Religicide of the Alawis by Jennifer Schlacht. It is here: Temporarily deleted. The first presentation of the day was my monstrosity, Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (which I later turned
- [Presentations from HAAC - The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/13/presentations-from-haac-the-silent-killers-a-quick-historical-review-of-biological-threats/) - The seventh presentation of the second day was The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats by Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson. It is here: HAAC Bio Threats 09282. The first presentation of the day was my monstrosity, Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (which I later turned into the book America's Modern Wars): NIC
- [Presentations from HAAC - A Statistical Analysis of Historical Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/15/presentations-from-haac-a-statistical-analysis-of-historical-land-battles-what-is-associated-with-winning/) - The first presentation of Day 2 in the Einstein Conference Room was A Statistical Analysis of Historical Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning? by Dr. Tom Lucas of the Naval Post-Graduate School. It is here: Historical Battles what is associated with winning. In the Pike and Gallows Conference Center, day 2: The first presentation
- [Presentations from HAAC - The Combat Assessment Technique](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/20/presentations-from-haac-the-combat-assessment-technique/) - The second presentation of Day 2 in the Einstein Conference Room was The Combat Assessment Technique by William Sayers. It is here: The Combat Assessment Technique. In the Pike and Gallows Conference Center, day 2: The first presentation of the day was my monstrosity, Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (which I later turned into the
- [Presentations from HAAC - Machine Learning the Lessons of History](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/22/presentations-from-haac-machine-learning-the-lessons-of-history/) - The third presentation of Day 2 in the Einstein Conference Room was Machine Learning the Lessons of History by Dr. Robert Helmbold. It is here: The Key To Victory-0017A. His supporting text is here: TEXT-0031. In the Pike and Gallows Conference Center, day 2: The first presentation of the day was my monstrosity, Iraq,
- [Presentations from HAAC - Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/27/presentations-from-haac-penetration-division-theory-history-concept/) - The fourth presentation of Day 2 in the Einstein Conference Room was Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept by LtC. Nathan A. Jennings, PhD. It is here: HAAC Presentation_LTC Jennings. In the Pike and Gallows Conference Center, day 2: The first presentation of the day was my monstrosity, Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (which I later
- [Presentations from HAAC - Learning from History: The Army's Future Study Program](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/29/presentations-from-haac-learning-from-history-the-armys-future-study-program/) - The fifth presentation of Day 2 in the Einstein Conference Room was Learning from History: The Army's Future Study Program by LtC. Adam L. Taliaferro. It is here: HAAC_Presentation. In the Pike and Gallows Conference Center, day 2: The first presentation of the day was my monstrosity, Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (which I later
- [Presentations from HAAC - Urban Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/03/presentations-from-haac-urban-warfare/) - The sixth presentation of Day 2 in the Einstein Conference Room was supposed to be virtual presentation on Artillery Suppression. This was cancelled due the presenter's workload. Maybe next HAAC. As we had gathered all the participants back into the main conference room, I choose to skip the seventh presentation on Urban Warfare that was
- [The U.S. Defense Budget for FY 2024 has passed](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/12/20/the-u-s-defense-budget-for-fy-2024-has-passed/) - By the way, on 14 December, the U.S. Congress did pass the defense budget for FY 2024. Fiscal Year 2024 begins in October 2023. It is expected to be signed by the president. The total budget was $886.3 Billion. The Senate voted 87-13 for it and the House voted 310-118. The majority of the opposing
- [Total Casualties in Ukraine according to CBC](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/12/11/total-casualties-in-ukraine-according-to-cbc/) - There was an article on 8 December by CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) that provided a reasonable discussion of casualties in Ukraine. It is here: Hundreds of thousands wounded and dead in Ukraine as war grinds on, intelligence suggests (yahoo.com). It states for Russia (based upon UK estimates): 50,000 killed + 20,000 Wagner Group = 70,000
- [The Battle for Kyiv will be released on 30 November](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/11/28/the-battle-for-kyiv-will-be-released-on-30-november-2/) - The Battle for Kyiv will be released on 30 November in the UK. It is in the Pen & Sword warehouse. It will be released in the U.S. on 18 January 2024. The book covers the first six or so weeks of the war. It is the first of a series of books on the
- [Ukraine election map (2010) versus U.S. Election Map (2020)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/11/21/ukraine-election-map-2010-versus-u-s-election-map-2020/) - Below is a copy of the Ukrainian presidential election map of 2010. This is the color version provided by the Ukrainian government. We had to use a black-and-while version for my book The Battle for Kyiv. See: The Battle for Kyiv will be released on 30 November | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). It had to
- [Are we the world leader in military historical analysis?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/11/16/are-we-the-world-leader-in-historical-analysis/) - I was assembling some marketing material and came up with the cheesy phrase "The world leader in military historical analysis since 1962."Now, is that actually true? I kind of think so. If it is not us, then who is the world leader in military historical analysis? What about non-military historical analysis? Is there a leader
- [The Battle for Kyiv will be released on 30 November](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/11/14/the-battle-for-kyiv-will-be-released-on-30-november/) - The Battle for Kyiv will be released on 30 November in the UK. It will be released in the U.S. on 18 January 2024. The book is due to be delivered to the Pen & Sword warehouse on 24 November. The book covers the first six or so weeks of the war. It is the
- [The Elements of Trevor Dupuy's Theory of Combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2019/07/01/the-elements-of-trevor-dupuys-theory-of-combat/) - Trevor Dupuy's combat models (the Quantified Judgement Model (QJM) and the Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model (TNDM)) are formal expressions of his theory of combat. Dupuy provided an extensive discussion of the basis for his theory in his books, particularly Understanding War: History and Theory of Combat (NOVA Publications, 1987). While many are familiar with his
- [Dupuy’s Verities: Surprise](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2019/04/08/dupuys-verities-surprise/) - The tenth of Trevor Dupuy’s Timeless Verities of Combat is: Surprise substantially enhances combat power. From Understanding War (1987): Achieving surprise in combat has always been important. It is perhaps more important today than ever. Quantitative analysis of historical combat shows that surprise has increased the combat power of military forces in those engagements in
- [The American Political Scene and Aid to Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/10/31/the-american-political-scene-and-aid-to-ukraine/) - My bias on this blog is to stay away from politics, but sometimes it can't be helped. The U..S. is providing about half the international aid to Ukraine. I have not done the exact math on this comparing U.S. military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine as compared to our NATO allies, plus the EU aid
- [We our down to our last 16 copies of Attrition](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/11/09/we-our-down-to-our-last-16-copies-of-attrition/) - Just to give you all a heads-up, we are down to our last 16 copies of Attrition: Forecasting Battle Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War. Hard to predict how long those remaining copies will last. It is still affordable at $19.95. Right now, Amazon is selling it used for $50 - $400. See: TDI
- [The False Lessons of Modern War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/10/28/the-false-lessons-of-modern-war/) - Hard to ignore an article that name checks Trevor Dupuy and I. Attached is an article by William F. Owen in the British Army Review, Autumn 2023 Issue. I hope I am not breaking some copyright by posting it up: Owen, The False Lessons of Modern War-Why Ignorance is Not Insight (2023). It is available
- [Of Rockets and Hospitals](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/10/26/of-rockets-and-hospitals/) - Below is a new blog post from our friend William (Chip) Sayers. As it about the current fighting between Hamas and Israel, I am almost afraid to post it, as anything you say is going to offend someone somewhere. But... we push forward, in the spirit of open discussion, putting the usual disclaimer that this
- [The Third HAAC - October 2024?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/10/23/the-third-haac-october-2024/) - We are definitely hosting a third HAAC. The tentative date is Tuesday-Thursday, 8-10 October 2024. The tentative location is the same conference area in Tysons Corner, VA (near DC). Anyhow, already putting together a list of presentations and presenters. The first HAAC had 32 presentations by 23 speakers and 2 group discussions. The second HAAC
- [The Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 - 19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/10/13/the-schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023-2/) - This is the thirteenth provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have 37 presentations scheduled by 28 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna,
- [Hamas-Israeli War - Day 3](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/10/09/hamas-israeli-war-day-3/) - Israel formally declared war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas on 8 October (although not against Gaza). It was done by the Israeli security cabinet. I have not seen a declaration. The last time they declared war was in 1973. The last time anyone in the world formally declared war was when? Israel as ordered
- [Second HAAC is next week, 17-19 October](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/10/09/second-haac-is-next-week-17-19-october/) - Just a reminder that the second HAAC is next week. So far we have received payments from 10 people, including one (discounted) student. Please make your payments to PayPal to SRichTDI@aol.com. You can also make a credit card payment by calling (703-289-0007) or emailing me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com I will be on travel from Wed through Sunday
- [Hamas-Israeli War - Day 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/10/08/hamas-israeli-war-day-2/) - Well, it is kind of a war now, with the Israeli cabinet saying they are in a state of war. They then formally declared war. When was the last time someone actually formally declared war? Israel has regained most of the areas that Hamas penetrated. Gun battles continued through the night. Israel took back 29
- [Gaza Strip barriers torn open](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/10/07/gaza-strip-barriers-torn-open/) - One of the sad things about being a military historian and defense analyst is that not only are you never suffering from a lack of cases to examine, but the world keeps just adding new wars, conflicts, political violence and terrorist incidents. I fear I will never become obsolete.Hamas tore through the Gaza Strip barriers
- [The War in Ukraine - Economist Article](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/07/the-war-in-ukraine-economist-article/) - The Economist published an article last month called "The war in Ukraine shows how technology is changing the battlefield." The subtitle is "But mass still counts, argues Shashank Joshi in the first of seven chapters of a special report on the future of warfare." The link is here: The war in Ukraine shows how technology
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 589](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/10/05/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-589/) - No movement to report on the ground. It is looking like this "spring" offensive is over, although the weather is still favorable for operations. To date, neither side has really achieved what they were hoping. The real issue now is whether the support for this war will be maintained by Ukraine’s allies or the Russian
- [The Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 - 19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/09/26/the-schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023/) - This is the twelfth provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 36 presentations scheduled by 27 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. I am still looking for a few more presentations. The
- [Virtual Attendance of HAAC](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/10/03/virtual-attendance-of-haac/) - The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is set up for virtual attendees. This will be done via Zoom. The conference will be held in Tysons Corner, VA (near DC). This conference is self-funding, meaning that the money collected from the participants fund the conference. Last year the conference ran at a loss. Therefore, all
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 582](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/09/28/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-582/) - More minor advances. Again, mostly clean up, vice any new operations. To date, neither side has really achieved what they were hoping. The real issue now is whether the support for this war will be maintained by Ukraine’s allies or the Russian populace as it appears this war is heading to a third year. Ukraine did
- [Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 - 19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/09/20/schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023-11/) - This is the eleventh provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 31 presentations scheduled by 24 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. I am still looking for a half-dozen more presentations. The conference
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 576](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/09/22/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-576/) - Some minor advances, but it is mostly clean up, vice any new operations. To date, neither side has really achieved what they were hoping. The real issue now is whether the support for this war will be maintained by Ukraine's allies or the Russian populace as it appears this war is heading to a third
- [Historical Analysis for Defence and Security Symposiums (HADSS), 8 - 11 July in York, England](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/09/15/historical-analysis-for-defence-and-security-symposiums-hadss-8-11-july-in-york-england/) - Dr. Niall MacKay, University of York, has organized a historical analysis symposium in York, England, 8 - 11 July 2024. The announcement is below and in this link: Historical Analysis for Defence and Security Symposium | ICMS - International Centre for Mathematical Sciences. I will be presenting at that conference and would like to think
- [Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 - 19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/31/schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023-10/) - This is the tenth provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 30 presentations scheduled by 24 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. I am still looking for a half-dozen more presentations. The conference
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 568](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/09/14/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-568/) - Maybe I am missing something, but there really is no significant news this week. Even the Ukraine incremental advances did not advance much. Now, because of weather they only have 30 to 60 days to do something, but right now not much is going on. After taking Robotnye, they did advance to the east towards
- [Two Conferences in Norway](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/09/08/two-conferences-in-norway/) - Two conferences in Norway from 31 October to 2 November that might be of interest to people. They are both in Oslo in the same week, but at different hotels: Building Resilience: The Russia-Ukraine War and Security Challenges for Ukraine and Europe - Forsvaret. International R&D Conference – Warfighting at the army corps and division
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 560](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/09/06/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-560/) - Ukraine continues incremental advances. The primary area they advanced is to the east of Robotyne towards Verbove. This appears to be expanding the penetration there. Ukraine appears to have penetrated the first line in the area and is looking to slowly expand the area under control. While this is progress, it is not much for
- [Presidential Elections - 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/09/01/presidential-elections-2024/) - The next presidential elections in Russia are in March 2024. The first round of voting is on 17 March. This is a great video posted yesterday from the independent channel 1420, worth watching: (1) Will you vote for Putin in the next elections? 100 Russians. - YouTube.The next Ukrainian presidential elections were scheduled on 31
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 552](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/29/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-552/) - Ukraine continues incremental advances. They have taken 1) now all of Robotyne, led by the 47th Mechanized Bde, 2) all of Urozhaine and 3) more territory around Bakhmut. None of this is earthshaking, but it shows a continued pattern of 1) Ukraine on the advance, 2) Russia struggling to defend it all, and perhaps, 3) Russia being
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 547](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/24/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-547/) - Ukraine continues incremental advances. They have taken 1) now all of Robotyne, led by the 47th Mechanized Bde, 2) all of Urozhaine and 3) more territory around Bakhmut. None of this is earthshaking, but it shows a continued pattern of 1) Ukraine on the advance, 2) Russia struggling to defend it all, and perhaps, 3)
- [Schedule for the Center for the Study of Guns and Society Fall 2023 conference, 13 - 14 October.](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/23/schedule-for-the-center-for-the-study-of-guns-and-society-fall-2023-conference-13-14-october/) - I will be a panelist on Saturday the 14th October at the Fall 2023 conference for the Center for the Study of Guns and Society. The panel will be on "Quantifying Lethality in Historical Terms and Policy Implications."The entire conference schedule is here: Fall 2023 Conference Agenda – Center for the Study of Guns and
- [Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 - 19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/22/schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023-9/) - This is the ninth provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 32 presentations scheduled by 25 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. I am still looking for a half-dozen more presentations. The conference
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 541](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/18/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-541/) - Ukraine continues incremental advances. They have taken 1) the north part of Robotyne, 2) all of Urozhaine and 3) more territory around Bakhmut. None of this is earthshaking, but it shows a continued pattern of 1) Ukraine on the advance, 2) Russia struggling to defend it all, and perhaps, 3) Russia being over-stretched and maybe
- [The New York Times casualty reports](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/18/the-washington-post-casualty-reports/) - Turns out the New York Times, based upon citations of unnamed U.S. officials, is providing the following estimates of losses:1. Russia: up to 120,000 killed and 170,000 to 180,000 wounded.2. Ukraine: close to 70,000 killed with 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.I have lots of heartburn with these figures. First... wounded-to-killed ratios:The wounded-to-killed ratio for WWII was
- [Understanding Dupuy - Dr. Shawn R. Woodford](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/15/understanding-dupuy-dr-shawn-r-woodford/) - The final presentation of the day was Understanding Dupuy: Trevor N. Dupuy's Theory of Combat by Dr. Shawn R. Woodford. The room was aware enough to restart the zoom recording after cutting Jim Storr's previous presentation short, so we got this one fully recorded. It was kept short as it was getting late the in
- [Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern Front in 1944-45 - Daniel Horvath](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/16/air-combat-analysis-on-the-eastern-front-in-1944-45-daniel-horvath/) - We did separate the conference in the afternoon and had two presentations given in another conference room. The first one was on Midway and the Aleutians. We did not record that. The second one was a virtual presentation, so we recorded that. It is here: (10) Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern Front in 1944
- [Wargaming 101 - Summary](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/17/wargaming-101-summary/) - Chip Sayers has posted a number of articles to this blog under the title of "Wargaming 101." He had lots of hands-on experience in the bowels of the Pentagon, so I found this to be a particularly interesting series of posts. He will be making a presentation at the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC)
- [Weaponising Historical Analysis - Dr. James Storr](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/14/weaponising-historical-analysis-dr-james-storr/) - The sixth briefing of the day was Weaponing Historical Analysis by Dr. James Storr. He is the author of three well received books. Concerning my book War by Numbers, one Amazon.com reviewer stated that: A great deal of the value of the book to the reader will depend upon how much that reader needs to
- [Killing Captain Hindsight - Dr. Niall MacKay](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/13/killing-captain-hindsight-dr-niall-mackay/) - Our fifth presentation of the day was Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History by Dr. Niall MacKay of the University of York. It is posted to our YouTube Channel here: (9) Killing Captain Hindsight: MacKay - YouTubeThe briefing ends at 57:40 and then there is five minutes of discussion afterwards. The slides for
- [Our first virtual presentation - How Important are Superior Numbers? - by Dr. David Kirkpatrick](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/12/our-first-virtual-presentation-how-important-are-superior-numbers-by-dr-david-kirkpatrick-university-college-london/) - This was the first virtual presentation of the conference. It happened after lunch, so we had resolved some of our earlier issues. Not only was Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) able to give a virtual presentation, but Dr. Robert Helmbold was able to attend virtually and discuss the briefing with him. This is kind
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 534](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/11/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-534/) - Been over a week since my last post because of a limited number of significant events. Ukraine continues incremental advances, having now been confirmed by video evidence to have taken the north part of Robotyne and are fighting for Urozhaine. These are both in Zaporizhzhia province to the north and northeast of Melitopol. It does
- [Fitting Lanchester Equations - Video](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/10/fitting-lanchester-equations-video/) - Fitting Lanchester Equations by Dr. Thomas Lucas (NPS) has now been posted to our YouTube channel. It was his presentation given at the 21st HAAC in September 2022. The briefing runs 54:20 with a few minutes of questions and discussion afterwards: (5) Fitting Lanchester Equations: Lucas - YouTube We have also done a few blog
- [Third video posted to our YouTube site](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/09/third-video-posted-to-our-youtube-site/) - We have now published the third video from the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) to our YouTube site. It is here: (1) Data for Wargames: Lawrence - YouTube The briefing in this third video goes for most of the video, as discussion and comments were made mostly during the briefing. The briefing ends at
- [Two videos posted to our YouTube site](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/09/two-videos-posted-to-our-youtube-site/) - We have now published the first two videos from the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) to our YouTube site. They are here (1) Opening Presentation Lawrence - YouTube and here (1) Studying Combat: Woodford - YouTube.The briefing in the second video ends at 20:40 and then a 30-minute discussion ensues.The viewgraphs for these briefings
- [Response 2 (Performance of Armies)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2018/04/08/response-2/) - In an exchange with one of readers, he mentioned that about the possibility to quantifiably access the performances of armies and produce a ranking from best to worst. The exchange is here: https://dupuyinstitute.org/2018/04/06/the-dupuy-institute-air-model-historical-data-study/#comments We have done some work on this, and are the people who have done the most extensive published work on this. Swedish researcher Niklas
- [Tigerfibel website](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/08/tigerfibel-website/) - Wulf D. Brand is the translator and publisher of the original Tiger tank manual. He now has a new website. It is here: Tigerfibel – one of the most coveted WW2 books | TigerFibel.COM Wulf was the translator for the German interviews in my Kursk book(s). Previous post: Tigerfibel | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
- [Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 - 19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/07/18/schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023-8/) - This is the eighth provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 30 presentations scheduled by 22 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. I am still looking for a half-dozen more presentations. The
- [The 3:1 Ratio](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/03/the-31-ratio/) - Was searching around on YouTube yesterday on "Dupuy Institute" and ran across this video: People Always Get This Wrong - YouTube. This was posted three weeks ago. Preston Stewart is not known to me. I am called out by name on 5:14 in the video. It is clear he pulled up one of our old
- [Variable 6: What is the size and capabilities of the Chinese Armed Forces?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/07/01/variable-6-what-is-the-size-and-capabilities-of-the-chinese-armed-forces/) - I think I covered most of this in my previous posts, for example: Invading Taiwan in the next six years – the fight? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). But, let me walk and talk through the subject one last time. An amphibious invasion of Taiwan is going to require China to not only put an
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 525](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/02/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-525/) - Been a week since my last post because of a limited number of significant events. It does appear that Ukraine is slowly winning this fight. We will not really know how well they are doing until they start serious offensive operations. May see those later this month. No inside knowledge here, but between them preserving
- [Wargaming 101: The Use of Wargames in Training](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/08/01/wargaming-101-the-use-of-wargames-in-training/) - Another posting from William "Chip" Sayers. Part of his "Wargaming 101" series: Wargaming 101: The Use of Wargames in Training When I arrived at Defense Intelligence Agency in the summer of 1986, my assigned cubicle was just down the row from the guy who was on a one-year temporary duty assignment to run our new
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 518](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/07/26/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-518/) - Doing an update as it does appear that Ukraine is slowly winning this fight. No inside knowledge here, but between them preserving their offensive forces, their continued infantry and artillery operations, their continued limited advances, and the disorder and complaining in the Russian ranks, it just seems like Ukraine has gotten the edge on the
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 514](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/07/22/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-514/) - It does appear that Ukraine making incremental gains on the battlefield. This includes 1) advancing (a total?) of 1.7 kilometers towards Melitopol (Ukrainian claim on 7/14), 2) advancing on both sides of Bakhmut, especially to the south 3) taking artillery dominance over and around Bakhmut, and we suspect 4) starting to win the artillery war
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 508](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/07/16/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-508/) - Doing a rare Sunday update. It does appear that Ukraine making incremental gains on the battlefield. This includes 1) advancing (a total?) of 1.7 kilometers towards Melitopol (Ukrainian claim on 7/14), 2) advancing on both sides of Bakhmut, especially to the south 3) taking artillery dominance over and around Bakhmut, and we suspect 4) starting
- [Is Russia losing the artillery fight?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/07/13/is-russia-losing-the-artillery-fight/) - MG Ivan Popov was very specific in his complaints after he was dismissed. He complained about "the lack of counter-battery combat, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations and the mass death and injury of our brothers from enemy artillery." See: First Prigozhin, now Popov | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). One could conclude from his comments
- [First Prigozhin, now Popov](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/07/12/first-prigozhin-now-popov/) - Well, the "Revolt of the Generals" continues. We had Prigozhin's statements and claims leading up to the 23 June mutiny, we now have hard claims coming from the now relieved commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, MG Ivan Popov. See article attached: Major General Popov with the call sign “Spartak” told his “gladiators” that
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 503](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/07/11/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-503/) - Not a whole lot new happening on the ground, but a few significant events off the battlefield; 1) turns out Prigozhin met with Putin in person on 29 June, 2) Erdogan, President of Turkey, has approved Sweden for NATO, 3) the Ukrainians assassinated a Russian submarine commander while jogging in Krasnodar, Russia, and 4) killed
- [Transfer to new host is complete](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/07/07/transfer-to-new-host-is-complete/) - This blog and our website have been transferred to a new host. The effort was seamless. Let me know if there are any problems. I did loose the previous version of this post in the shuffle. Over the next few weeks we will be doing some updates to the TDI website and to this blog.
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 499](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/07/07/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-499/) - It has been a week since my last post, and nothing real significant to report. The front is not particularly active and there are no new mutinies. General update is provided below. Prigozhin Mutiny: This lasted only two days, the immediate damage done by it was limited. Prigozhin as of the morning of 27 June was
- [An Examination of Force Ratios](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/07/06/an-examination-of-force-ratios/) - A friend just pointed me to a recent 2019 paper done out at C&GSC at Leavenworth. It is called "An Examination of Force Ratios" and is by Major Joshua T. Christian. It is 37 pages. It is here: AD1083211.pdf (dtic.mil) A few notes "The nature of the inputs required for models such as the QJM
- [Looking for someone to help transfer this blog and website to a new server](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/07/04/looking-for-someone-to-help-transfer-this-blog-and-website-to-a-new-server/) - UPDATE (7/05/23): Looks like the problem has been solved. More on this later. I am looking for someone to help transfer this blog and our website to a new server.The current server, Future Quest, which I have been on since at least 2001, is shutting down on short notice (notified everyone on 6/29: FutureQuest Professional
- [Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 - 19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/07/04/schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023-7/) - This is the seventh provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 29 presentations scheduled by 21 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350,
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 492](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/30/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-492/) - No real new news. The front is not particularly active and there are no new mutinies. General update is provided below. Prigozhin Mutiny: This lasted only two days, the immediate damage done by it was limited. Prigozhin as of the morning of 27 June is in Minsk, Belarus. I gather most of the Wagner group is
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 488](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/26/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-488/) - Prigozhin Mutiny: This lasted only two days, the immediate damage done by it was limited. Prigozhin did seize control of Rostov (estimated population 1,130,305 in 2018) and Voronezh (estimated population 1,047,549 in 2018). His column advancing on Moscow up route M-4 was estimated to be 70-100 vehicles. It was clearly a force of less than 2,000
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 485](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/23/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-485/) - Prigozhin Mutiny - Day 2 Update: The Wagner Group controls Rostov (estimated population 1,130,305 in 2018). They are also reported to be at Voronezh (estimated population 1,047,549 in 2018). There are rumors/videos of clashes in Rostov last night between Wagner and the Russian Army. Prigozhin claimed this morning that they have shot down three Russian
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 483](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/21/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-483/) - Spring Offensive: I am updating this posting twice a week, but there is really not a whole lot new to report. The Ukrainians are doing limited attacks in at least three locales in the south from west to east: 1) near Orikhiv, 2) near Huliaipole and 3) near Veyka Novosilka. They are also attacking around
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 478](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/16/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-478/) - Spring Offensive: Nothing really new the last three days. Are the Ukrainians taking a breather? It appears that Ukrainian offensive operations started on Monday, 5 June with a series of serious “shaping operations.” See: So has the Spring Offensive started? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). On 6 June Russia (probably) blew the Kakhaovka dam. Right now
- [1420 - sixth posting](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/19/1420-sixth-posting/) - I have not posted about the YouTube channel 1420 in over a year. It is still going on and still producing interesting videos. It is primarily run by a young Russian named Daniil Orain who lives and mostly interviews in Moscow. Do not know if he has received any pushback from the Russian authorities. Some
- ["The Games the Marine Corps Plays"](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/19/the-games-the-marine-corps-plays/) - An associate strongly recommended I look at this article. I would recommend the same to our readership: The Games the Marine Corps Plays | Military.com It is written by Gary Anderson of GWU, who I do not know. But, to quote a few lines from the article: "You do not want prying eyes on your
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 475](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/13/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-475/) - Well, things are starting to heat up in Ukraine. It appears that Ukrainian offensive operations started on Monday, 5 June with a series of serious "shaping operations." See: So has the Spring Offensive started? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). On 6 June Russia (probably) blew the Kakhaovka dam. Right now Ukraine is recording 10 killed and
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 471](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/09/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-471/) - Well, it does look like the preparatory or "shaping operations" for the Spring Offensive have begun, with people saying the offensive started on Monday, 5 June. See: So has the Spring Offensive started? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Still no blitzkrieg but it is no longer sitzkrieg. On Thursday, 8 June, Russia released images showed
- [Wargaming 101 - Sayers vs. The U.S. Navy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/12/wargaming-101-sayers-vs-the-u-s-navy/) - The third and last of three recent articles from William (Chip) Sayers. The conclusions are his: ------- Wargaming 101 – Sayers vs. The US Navy Early in the Reagan Administration, his Secretary of the Navy, John Lehman, adopted “The Maritime Strategy,” a doctrine that would send the US Navy aggressively into the face of the
- [Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/15/schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023-6/) - This is the sixth provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 28 presentations scheduled by 21 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350,
- [Shebekino](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/08/shebekino/) - Shebekino is a town in Belgorod province 19 miles (30 km) southeast of Belgorod. It population in the 2021 census was 39,680, down from 44,552 in 1989.It was founded in 1713 and on 1 June 2023 came under fire from Ukrainian territory. The Ukrainian-allied Freedom of Russia Legion is conducting operations in this area, and
- [So has the Spring Offensive started?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/07/so-has-the-spring-offensive-started/) - So, has the Spring Offensive started and no one has really noticed it? There are a few people who claim that it has: Opinion | Counteroffensive against Russia is Ukraine's D-Day - The Washington Post Now I have not read this article as I am too cheap to subscribe, as usually significant parts of it
- [Some Dam Thoughts](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/06/some-dam-thoughts/) - As many are aware, the Kakhovka Dam was seriously breeched Tuesday, 6 June, flooding the Dnipro River to its west. This is almost a 60 mile (97 km) stretch of river. The dam holds back a large 150 mile (241 km) reservoir. Description is here: Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam - Wikipedia Of course, the
- [Soviet Propaganda Leaflet, July 1943](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/30/soviet-propaganda-leaflet-july-1943/) - Daniel Horvath, the author, has passed to me a copy of a Soviet propaganda leaflet from July 1943. He said it came from a crashed plane in Orel province. It is the same thing on both sides of the two-sided printed leaflet. Translation: Russian Propaganda Leaflet (2) Translation: A NewAdventure by Hitler German soldiers! On
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 464](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/02/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-464/) - Lots of interesting things continue to happen but there is still no big spring offensive, yet. Russia has sent a dozens of drones for several days to strike Kyiv. Most are shot down or miss their target, but a few get through. At least four civilians have been killed in Kyiv in multiple attacks this
- [York Historical Warfare Analysis Group (YHWAG)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/06/01/york-historical-warfare-analysis-group-yhwag/) - Was forwarded this link by Dr. Niall MacKay: Weighing the Fog of War – quantifying counterfactual military history (wordpress.com)He presented at our last conference: Presentations from HAAC – Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org); and will be doing a virtual presentation at this year's conference: Schedule for the
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 457](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/26/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-457/) - Lots of things going on but no big spring offensive yet. As of 20 May, Bakhmut has fallen, except Ukraine was still holding onto the SW corner where the MiG-17 monument is. It clearly was completely under Russian control by 24 May. Ukraine is making small advances around the outside of Bakhmut. The Wagner Group
- [Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/25/schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023-5/) - This is the fifth provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 27 presentations scheduled by 20 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350,
- [Bigger Fleets Win](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/24/bigger-fleets-win/) - This article just came across my desk courtesy of a friend: Bigger Fleets Win | Proceedings - January 2023 Vol. 149/1/1,439 (usni.org) I will avoid discussing the article, instead I will only discuss the two references to me (A little bit of vanity here). First there is footnote 24, which references my book War by Numbers.
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 450](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/19/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-450/) - No spring offensive yet. Ukraine is making small advances around Bakhmut, but I suspect that is not their spring offensive. They appear to be holding back on the main offensive efforts until later. The classified Joint Staff briefing book did talk about 12 “combat credible” brigades being generated for the “spring counteroffensive.” They report on
- [What Brigades has Ukraine added since the war started?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/02/what-brigades-has-ukraine-added-since-the-war-started/) - Now, Ukraine started the war with at least 18 active Army maneuver brigades. The Army had at least 9 reserve brigades ready to be activated. They started with war with 11 artillery brigades, two Army artillery brigades in reserve, and one Naval Infantry artillery brigade. The airborne forces provided 5 more brigades put two in
- [Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/18/schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023-4/) - This is the fourth provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 24 presentations scheduled by 17 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350,
- [Three books to be published this year](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/17/three-books-to-be-published-this-year/) - I have been quiet about the books that I am working on and publishing because some of them have been slower to release than expected.I have three books coming out this year. The UK hardcover release dates are:Aces at Kursk: 30 July 2023The Battle of Kyiv: 30 August 2023The Hunting Falcon: 30 September 2023 The
- [Count of Opposing Forces](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/09/count-of-opposing-forces/) - In the classified Joint Staff briefing slides there is an accounting of the strength of both sides as of the end of February (status report as of 1 March). It shows: Ukrainian: 34 Maneuver Brigades 13 Fire Units (9 brigades, 3 regiments, 1 battalion) 27 TDF Brigades (territorial defense forces) Not sure which brigades
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 443](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/12/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-443/) - No spring offensive yet. Spring does last until 21 June. Looks like weather is good for operations. The classified Joint Staff briefing book did talk about 12 “combat credible” brigades being generated for the “spring counteroffensive.” They report on the status of 9 new brigades being raised (“trained and equipped by US, Allied and Partners”).
- [TLIs and Gun Control](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/15/tlis-and-gun-control/) - Well, Trevor Dupuy's work on the Theoretical Lethality Index (TLI) that was done back in 1964 has entered into the U.S. gun control debate, not by our choice. We discussed an earlier work that addressed this at Common Use, Lineage, and Lethality | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). This first came to our attention through an
- [The Easy Button](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/22/the-easy-button/) - Second to three recent articles from William (Chip) Sayers. The conclusions are his: ---------- The Easy Button In the 1960s and 70s, the Soviet Union began exporting tactical and short-range ballistic missiles to its client states around the world. These missiles were developed as nuclear warhead carriers, so why give them to, for instance, Egypt,
- [Unstructured Comments on "The Relationship of Battle Damage to Unit Combat Performance"](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/10/unstructured-comments-on-the-relationship-of-battle-damage-to-unit-combat-performance/) - Thanks to Russell1200 (see comments to Count of Opposing Forces | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)), I now found out about a report "The Relationship of Battle Damage to Unit Combat Performance" by Leonard Wainstein of IDA prepared back in April 1986. Both the report and Wainstein are unknown to me. The abstract of the report
- [The nine new brigades for the spring offensive - organization](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/08/the-nine-new-brigades-for-the-spring-offensive-organization/) - In the classified Joint Staff briefing slides, there was a listing of the ready status as of 28 February for nine new Ukrainian brigades. One of those was a reserve brigade that existed (at least on paper) when the war started. The other eight were new brigades. Another chart shows how each brigade is structured.
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 436](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/05/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-436/) - Spring is arriving, no spring offensive yet. Weather will probably be good enough next week. Near Kharkov, 0.05" of rain expected today and partly cloudy for the rest of the week. Has been dry most of this week, so ground it already probably in pretty good shape. When, where, how or even if the Spring
- [The nine new brigades for the spring offensive - artillery](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/04/the-nine-new-brigades-for-the-spring-offensive-artillery/) - In the classified Joint Staff briefing slides, there was a listing of the ready status as of 28 February for nine new Ukrainian brigades. One of those was a reserve brigade that existed (at least on paper) when the war started. The other eight were new brigades. They are: 116th MBde (new unit), 47th MBde
- [The nine new brigades for the spring offensive - APCs and IFVs](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/04/the-nine-new-brigades-for-the-spring-offensive-apcs-and-ifvs/) - In the classified Joint Staff briefing slides, there was a listing of the ready status as of 28 February for nine new Ukrainian brigades. One of those was a reserve brigade that existed (at least on paper) when the war started. The other eight were new brigades. They are: 116th MBde (new unit), 47th MBde
- [Test-Firing Early Modern Small Arms](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/06/test-firing-early-modern-small-arms/) - Someone just brought this article to my attention: View of Material Culture and Military History: Test-Firing Early Modern Small Arms | Material Culture Review (unb.ca). It is about a test firing of modern small arms conducted by the Austrian provincial armory in Graz, done in 1988-1989. They test fired 14 weapons from 1571 to 1750
- [The nine new brigades for the spring offensive - tanks](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/03/the-nine-new-brigades-for-the-spring-offensive-tanks/) - In the classified Joint Staff briefing slides, there was a listing of the ready status as of 28 February for nine new Ukrainian brigades. One of those was a reserve brigade that existed (at least on paper) when the war started. The other eight were new brigades. They are: 116th MBde (new unit), 47th MBde
- [How many brigades did Ukraine start with war with?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/05/01/how-many-brigades-did-ukraine-start-with-war-with/) - According to my count, at the start of the war, the Ukrainian Army had around 18 activated maneuver brigades and up to nine reserve brigades ready to be activated.[1] It appears that four or five of these brigades had three maneuver battalions per brigade while 13 or 14 of them had four or more maneuver
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 429](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/04/28/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-429/) - Everyone is now waiting for the Ukrainian Spring Offensive. When, where, how or even if it will occur in spring is unknown, but everyone is waiting for something to happen any day now. There was Ukrainian crossing early this week (20 or 21 April) at the village of Dachi. This is just across the Dnipro
- [Video of Infantry Fighting near Bakhmut](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/04/27/video-of-infantry-fighting-near-bakhmut/) - THE INSANE FOOTAGE OF UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS IN THE BATTLE FOR THE LAST ROAD TO BAKHMUT || 2023 - YouTube This video has been floating around for a few days. It is worth watching. More 1916 than RMA. This is fighting outside of Bakhmut on the route into the town. There are pictures of people being
- [Advance Rates in Combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/04/26/advance-rates-in-combat/) - Advance Rates in Combat: Units maneuver before and during a battle to achieve a more favorable position. This maneuver is often unopposed and is not the subject of this discussion. Unopposed movement before combat is often quite fast, although often not as fast as people would like to assume. Once engaged with an opposing
- [American Thunder: U.S. Army Tank Design, Development and Doctrine in World War II](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/04/24/american-thunder-u-s-army-tank-design-development-and-doctrine-in-world-war-ii/) - Just to give you a heads up, Richard Anderson, former researcher at TDI, is publishing the book American Thunder as of December 16, 2023. It will make for a great stocking stuffer for the right person. See: Amazon.com: American Thunder: U.S. Army Tank Design, Development, and Doctrine in World War II: 9780811773812: Anderson, Richard: Books.
- [Average Losses per Day in Division-level Engagements on the Eastern Front in 1943](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/04/25/average-losses-per-day-in-division-level-engagements-on-the-eastern-front-in-1943/) - Trevor N. Dupuy, among his 56 verities of combat, states that “Average World War II division engagement casualty rates were 1-3% a day.”[1] This was based primarily on his research on the Western Front during World War II. For example, just to draw from data from real world experience, the average losses per U.S. division
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 422](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/04/21/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-422/) - Nothing much new this week. Thought about skipping this post for this week. The Russian have made only limited advances this week in Bakhmut. They clearly now control over half the town. On 11 April, Wagner sent out photos of them controlling Metalurh Stadium in central Bakhmut. According to some sources, they control 65% of
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 415](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/04/14/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-415/) - Well, it looks like Bakhmut is slowly being taken, block by block. On 11 April, Wagner sent out photos of them controlling Metalurh Stadium in central Bakhmut. They clearly now control over half the city. I gather Ukraine has limited the forces inside the city because of the danger of encirclement and the problems of
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 408](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/04/07/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-408/) - The war continues but not a lot is happening. There have been some limited advances around Bakhmut and Ukrainian counterattacks around Avdiivka, but not a whole lot else. It has been over four weeks since anyone made any significant advances. This is clearly a stalemated war until the weather clears in early May. And then we
- [Russian Losses over Time](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/04/04/russian-losses-over-time/) - Russian deaths, according the BBC/Mediazona accounts, were 6,902 from 24 February through 21 September 2022. Russia itself reported on 21 September that there were 5,937 killed. Now, we suspect the Russian reports understate their losses and by the nature of the data collected, the Mediazona reports also certainly understate Russian losses. That their figures are
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 401](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/03/31/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-401/) - The war continues but not a lot is happening. There have been some limited advances around Bakhmut and Avdiivka, but not a whole lot else. It has been over three weeks since anyone made any significant advances. This is clearly a stalemated war until the weather clears in early May. And then we will see
- [Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/04/06/schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023-3/) - This is the third provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 22/23 presentations scheduled by 15/16 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350,
- [BBC/Mediazona Figures Over Time](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/04/03/bbc-mediazona-figures-over-time/) - BBC Russia, working with Mediazona, have since early in this conflict kept a count by name of the number people reported killed from multiple sources in Russia. Don't know how accurate the list is, but I gather everyone they list did die in Ukraine. It may not have been a combat loss. They are also
- [Wounded-to-killed ratios in Chiraq](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/03/30/wounded-to-killed-ratios-in-chiraq/) - Probably going a little astray here but was looking at reports of the number of civilians killed and wounded in the gun violence in Chicago. It is reported that in the last 30 days, 37 people were killed and 131 were wounded. This comes out to a wounded-to-killed ratio of 3.54-to-1 or a lethality figure
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 394](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/03/24/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-394/) - All is quiet on the Eastern Front. Now, that does not mean there is no fighting, cities are not being shelled and civilians are not being killed, but there has been no significant advances by either side now for over two weeks. Bakhmut still has not fallen. Do not expect to see anything happening until
- [Third Call for Presentations for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/03/23/third-call-for-presentations-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023/) - Making another call for presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) in Tysons Corner in October 2023. Anyone interested in making what they feel is a useful and relevant contribution should email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me at (703) 289-0007. The current schedule for the conference is here: Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 387](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/03/17/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-387/) - Bakhmut still has not fallen. This is not exactly blitzkrieg. The current offensive for Bakhmut started around 1 August. Monday before last (6 March), Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, in conjunction with a couple of his generals, said that they are going to hold Bakhmut. Nothing significant has happened since then. Russia continues to move the front
- [Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/03/16/schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023-2/) - This is the second provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 21/22 presentations scheduled by 14/15 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350,
- [Return-to-Duty (RTDs)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/03/13/returns-to-duty-rtds/) - I have never really done any work on RTDs. I have an entire chapter on Casualties (Chapter 15) in War by Numbers, but nothing really on RTDS. Anyhow, more than one person has asked me about this, so let me outline what I/we know:1). The rule of thumb Trevor Dupuy developed on RTDs was in
- [Carded-for-Record in WWII](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/03/14/carded-for-record-in-wwii/) - In our report: "C-1 Combat Mortality: Why is Marine Combat Mortality Less than That of the Army (JCS) (March 1998)," volume 2, Figure 145 is the following table. It was part of the presentation done by Col. (Dr.) Ron Bellamy. From Table 1, page 4, Medical Statistics in WWII, Office of the Surgeon General, US
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 380](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/03/10/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-380/) - Bakhmut still has not fallen. On Monday (6 March), Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, in conjunction with a couple of his generals, said that they are going to hold Bakhmut. So far this week, it appears that almost nothing significant has happened there. The front lines are moving forward incrementally in only a few spots. There is
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 376](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/03/06/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-376/) - Bakhmut is the story except we really don't know what is actually happening. The Russian push to the north of the city has closed around enough so that there is a gap of only around 4 kilometers between the north and south wings of the Russian advance, except there has been no significant advances for
- [Second Call for Presentations for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/03/02/second-call-for-presentations-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023/) - Want to make a second call for presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) in Tysons Corner in October 2023. Anyone interested in making what they feel is a useful and relevant contribution should email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me at (703) 289-0007. The current schedule for the conference is here: Schedule for the
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 369](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/27/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-369/) - What is interesting over the last month is what has not happened. The weather at the beginning of the month finally chilled enough to freeze the ground. This created a six-week window for offensive operations. We are now more than half-way through that window and neither side has conducted a major offensive. Other things that
- [One Year Anniversary of the Russo-Ukrainian War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/24/one-year-anniversary-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/) - These are not the anniversaries you want to be acknowledging. I am sure a lot of other people will have a lot to say. I am just going to take a moment and quote from an upcoming book of mine: Vladimir Putin created the modern state of Ukraine. This is a state that clearly is
- [Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/23/schedule-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023/) - This is the first provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 19/20 presentations scheduled by 13/14 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350,
- [Alexey Navalny's 15-point tweet](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/20/alexey-navalnys-15-point-tweet/) - Just saw this on twitter, posted today by Russian Alexey Navalny from prison. I think it is worth repeating. From @navalny: On the eve of the anniversary of the full-scale and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, I have summarized the political platform of mine and, hopefully, of many other decent people. 15 theses
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 362](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/20/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-362/) - Russia continues attacking at various spots along the front line but not much has actually happened over the last week. The main movement of the front lines consisted of Russia reducing the salient at Krasna Hora to the north of Bakhmut, while to the south of Bakhmut Ukraine pushed back the Russian advance there slightly.
- [Wargaming 101 - In the Bowels of the Pentagon with J-8](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/21/wargaming-101-in-the-bowels-of-the-pentagon-with-j-8/) - Another great William "Chip" Sayers article on wargaming. Wargaming 101 – In the Bowels of the Pentagon with J-8 I had been a Soviet Military Aviation analyst for DIA for only a few weeks when a friend from my previous life in the Air Force Reserve Intelligence program invited me to accompany him to
- [Presentations from the first HAAC - all three days](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/16/presentations-from-the-first-haac-all-three-days/) - We had a total of 31 presentations given at the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) along with two group discussions. Most of the briefings are provided below. In all cases, this was done with the permission of the briefer. We may later also post the videos of the presentations, but these are clearly going
- [Latest Russian Losses](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/15/latest-russian-losses/) - With estimates of Russian losses soaring, been poking about trying the figure out how bad it really is.One interesting article is here: A Russian prisoner-turned-soldier says he was brought to the front line without training and told to charge 'as far as we could go' into Ukrainian gunfire (msn.com)It details Wagner losses in three separate
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 355](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/13/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-355/) - Russia continues attacking at various spots along the front line. This includes attacking in the north near Svatove to Krupiansk, further south around Kreminna, both to the north and south of Bakhmut, and in the south at Vuhledar. The situation around Bakhmut appears to be slowly worsening for Ukraine. Russia appears to be trying to
- [Mediazona Counts vs Russian Federation Reports](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/10/mediazona-counts-vs-russian-federation-reports/) - The Russian Federation has only provided two casualty reports for this war. one on 25 March and one on 21 September 2022. Mediazona/BBC News Russia has been providing periodic updates since the war began. Let's compare them for a moment: 25 March 2022 (Russia) 1,351 killed and 3,825 wounded (2.83-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio) vs 21 March
- [Mediazona Counts](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/10/mediazona-estimates/) - While pursuing Mediazona counts of Russian war dead, I discovered that I am quoted in a number of recent articles. This includes:25 Jan: What's the truth about casualty numbers in Ukraine? - The Post (unherd.com)1 Feb: Ukraine war: casualty counts from either side can be potent weapons and shouldn't always be believed (yahoo.com)2 Feb: Ukraine war:
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 352](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/10/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-352/) - Russia continues attacking at various spots along the front line. This includes attacking around Kreminna, both to the north and south of Bakhmut, and at Vuhledar. The situation around Bakhmut appears to be slowly worsening for Ukraine. Russia appears to be trying to envelop Bakhmut from the south. A good discussion here from an American
- [Final presentation from the first HAAC - Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/14/final-presentation-from-the-first-haac-group-discussion-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022/) - The final event of the last year’s conference was a Group Discussion on the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022." I put together some notes (7 slides) to start the discussion and it sort of turned into an impromptu briefing: Russo-Ukrainian War 2022 These notes were later used as the starting point for this briefing: Casualty Estimates
- [Presentations from the first HAAC - Drone Warfare and the Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/09/presentations-from-the-first-haac-drone-warfare-and-the-nagorno-karabakh-war-of-2020/) - The sixth of seven presentations for the third day in the second conference room of last year’s conference was on "Drone Warfare and the Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020" by Dr. Alexander Kott of ARL (Army Research Laboratory): Kott HAAC Karabakh War Reminder: Second HAAC, 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA | Mystics & Statistics
- [Presentations from the first HAAC - Patterns of Explosive Violence Harm in Ukraine Before and After the 24 Feb. Invasion](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/07/presentations-from-the-first-haac-patterns-of-explosive-violence-harm-in-ukraine-before-and-after-the-24-feb-invasion/) - The fifth of seven presentations for the third day in the second conference room of last year’s conference was on "Patterns of Explosive Weapon Use in Ukraine: Comparing Patterns Before and After 24 Feb. Invasion" by Chiara Torelli of AOAV (Action on Armed Violence), who provided the presentation virtually from the UK: haac-ukraine_59520530 A paper
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 348](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/06/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-348/) - Russia continues attacking at various spots along the front line. This includes attacking north near Svatove, around Kreminna, both to the north and south of Bakhmut, and at Vuhledar. It does not appear that the front has stabilized and currently the initiative lies with Russia. The situation around Bakhmut appears to be slowly worsening for
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 345](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/03/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-345/) - Russia continues making small advances to the north and south of Bakhmut amid Ukrainian claims of heavy Russan losses. It does not appear that the front has stabilized and currently the initiative lies with Russia. Russia appears to be trying to envelop Bakhmut from the south. Good map of the front lines is provided here,
- [Presentations from the first HAAC - The Decline of War Since 1950](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/02/presentations-from-the-first-haac-the-decline-of-war-since-1950/) - The fourth of seven presentations for the third day in the second conference room of last year’s conference was on “The Decline of War Since 1950" by the American econometrician Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London): spagat_presentation We have discussed some of his work in the past. See: TDI Friday Read: Mike Spagat’s
- [Wargaming 101: The Bad Use of a Good Tool](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/02/01/wargaming-101-the-bad-use-of-a-good-tool/) - Another William "Chip" Sayers article. He has done over a dozen postings to this blog. Some of his previous postings include: Wargaming 101: A Tale of Two Forces | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) A story about planning for Desert Storm (1991) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Wargaming 101: The Bad Use of a Good
- [Presentations from first HAAC - The Red Army's War in Ukraine 1943-44](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/31/presentations-from-first-haac-the-red-armys-war-in-ukraine-1943-44/) - The third of seven presentations for the third day in the second conference room of last year’s conference was on “The Red Army's War in Ukraine 1943-44″ by my old office mate Dr. Richard Harrison. We cannot post this excellent presentation at the moment. Dr. Harrison will be presenting a revised version of this presentation
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 341](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/30/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-341/) - The front lines moved a little this weekend with advances around Soledar and Kreminna. Russia continues operations around Bakhmut, although no advances were made this weekend. A good map of where the front lines lie is provided here, dated 26 January (starting 6:18): Update from Ukraine | The chance for Ukrainian army in Bakhmut |
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 338](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/27/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-338/) - The front lines have not moved much this last week but Russia continues pushing around Bakhmut. A good map of where the front lines lie is provided here (starting 6:18): Update from Ukraine | The chance for Ukrainian army in Bakhmut | Abrams Tanks Approved USA❤UA - YouTube. Ukraine has finally admitted they no longer
- [Two proposals on Combat Casualties](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/07/two-proposals-on-combat-casualties/) - In my last post I referenced two proposals I prepared for the CCCRP (Combat Casualty Care Research Program) on combat casualties. This was built off Chapter 15 "Casualties" in my book War by Numbers and some combat casualty modeling work I had done at the Marine Corps Warfighting Lab (MCWL). The working level of CCCRP
- [Presentations from first HAAC - Evaluating German Aerial Photography at the Battle of Kursk, 1943](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/26/presentations-from-first-haac-evaluating-german-aerial-photography-at-the-battle-of-kursk-1943/) - The second of seven presentations for the third day in the second conference room of last year’s conference was on “Evaluating German Aerial Photography at the Battle of Kursk, 1943" by Eugene Matyukhin. We cannot post this excellent presentation at the moment. ————- We had a total of 31 presentations given at the first Historical
- [Reminder: Second HAAC, 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/25/reminder-second-haac-17-19-october-2023-in-tysons-corner-va-3/) - Will probably publish a preliminary schedule next week. Currently have 17 presentations lined up and looking for another 17 more. This is a good time to volunteer to present. Just email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me at (703) 289-0007. Announcement: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA |
- [Presentations from first HAAC - The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive, 1918](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/24/presentations-from-first-haac-the-aef-and-consolidation-of-gains-operations-during-the-meuse-argonne-offensive-1918/) - The first of seven presentations for the third day in Einstein Conference Room of last year’s conference was on “The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive, 1918" by Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG): Meuse Argonne Offensive Operations ————- We had a total of 31 presentations given at the first Historical Analysis Annual
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 334](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/23/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-334/) - The front lines have not moved much this last week. Russia is still pushing around Bakhmut and controls Soledar (taken 12 January according to the Russian Defense Ministry) while Ukraine is still pushing around Kreminna, to the north. The taking of Soledar does not really seriously compromise the defense of Bakhmut. Soledar is 7 miles
- [Reminder: Second HAAC, 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/18/reminder-second-haac-17-19-october-2023-in-tysons-corner-va-2/) - Announcement: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Costs ($150): Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Hotels: Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
- [Presentations from first HAAC - The Future of TDI and work of the conference](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/19/presentations-from-first-haac-the-future-of-tdi-and-work-of-the-conference/) - The fifth presentation for the third day of last year’s conference was by me on “The Future of TDI and work of the conference.” It was a short 7-slide closing presentation for the conference (although we still have seven presentations to post from the second conference room): Closing Presentation ————- We had a total of
- [Presentations from First HAAC - The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/17/presentations-from-first-haac-the-criticality-of-resurrecting-tdi-tndm/) - The fourth presentation for the third day of last year’s conference was by Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret) on “The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM": TDI Proposal 22AUG22 ————- We had a total of 30 presentations given at the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have the briefing slides from most of these
- [Presentations from First HAAC - Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/12/presentations-from-first-haac-quantitative-risk-assessment-in-military-decisions/) - The third presentation for the third day of last year’s conference was by Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson of the InfoLogix, Inc. His presentation was “Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions" and is here: DS_risk_HAAC_09292 ————- We had a total of 30 presentations given at the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have the briefing
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 327](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/16/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-327/) - Front lines have not moved much this weekend. Russia controls Soledar, but Ukraine claims it is still fighting there but this does not appear correct. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, it was completely taken on 12 January. This is a town 10,900 people (as of January 2022). Not significant (unless salt is critical war
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 324](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/13/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-324/) - Well, it does look like Soledar is mostly under control of Russia, supposedly from 11 January according to Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group; and completed the evening January 12 according to the Russian Defense Ministry. This claim is being disputed by Ukraine. There are apparently still some pockets of Ukrainian resistance in
- [Reminder: Second HAAC, 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/11/reminder-second-haac-17-19-october-2023-in-tysons-corner-va/) - Announcement: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Costs ($150): Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Hotels: Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 | Mystics
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 320](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/09/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-320/) - The war continues with the Russians pushing against Soledar and the Ukrainians inching towards Kreminna. It is reported that in the month of December, Ukraine took 70 square kilometers of territory. This is an area about the size of Arlington Country VA. There has been no significant movement on the front lines since the taking of
- [Presentations from First HAAC - Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/10/presentations-from-first-haac-quantitative-analysis-of-history-of-direct-fire-weapons/) - The second presentation for the third day of last year's conference was by Dr. Alexander Kott of the Army Research Laboratory (ARL). We have posted about his work before, here The Evolution of Weapons and Warfare? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and here Data Used for the ARL Paper | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and here Data Used of
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 317](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/06/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-317/) - Nothing major to report since Monday. Probably the biggest news of the week was the U.S., Germany and France are now providing Ukraine with modern IFVs and light tanks (50 Bradleys, 40 Marders, and some AMX-10s wheeled lights tanks with 105mm guns, along with a couple of Patriot batteries). I assume it will be a
- [Call for Presentations for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/07/call-for-presentations-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023/) - Want to make a call for presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) in Tysons Corner in October 2023. Anyone interested in making what they feel is a useful and relevant contribution should email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me at (703) 289-0007. We do not require any formal paper or publication to support such
- [Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/06/hotels-for-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023/) - Dining and Hotels are at the expense of the attendees. The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is
- [Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/05/cost-of-the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023/) - The cost of attendance to the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) on 17-19 October 2022 will be $150 for the entire conference. Dining and hotels are at the expense of the attendees. There will be facilities for virtual attendees and virtual presenters, but the focus of the conference will be in-person presentations and attendees.
- [The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/04/the-second-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-17-19-october-2023-in-tysons-corner-va/) - Announcing the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October, 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA, USA. It is being hosted by The Dupuy Institute but is an open conference and we are looking for interested presenters and attendees from all corners of the historical analysis, operations research, and historical research communities. Purpose: To explore and promote
- [Presentations from HAAC - The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/05/presentations-from-haac-the-application-of-the-scientific-method-to-military-history/) - The opening presentation for the third day of the conference was by Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies PYY LTD, Sydney, Australia), a regular commentator to this blog. He flew a long way to attend. It was on "Applying the Scientific Method to Military History (using a virtual laboratory)." It is oriented towards wargaming. It is here:
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 313](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2023/01/02/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-313/) - Happy New Year. Suspect 2023 will mostly bring war to this region. There has been no significant movement on the front lines since the taking of Kherson on 11 November. There is lots of back-and-forth fighting around Bakhmut. I have not been following this fight closely on this blog and not sure who has a
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 310](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/30/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-310/) - Big 120+ missile attack on Ukraine yesterday (29 December). Last big attack was on 16 December. Russia has been making a large missile bombardment every 10 or 11 days. This attack overwhelmed Ukrainian defenses and the attack resulted in widespread power outages. At least two people were killed. They may have intended on doing this
- [Wargaming 101: A Tale of Two Forces](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/28/wargaming-101-a-tale-of-two-forces/) - Another article from William "Chip" Sayers. This article addresses some his work at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and his attempts to do some basic combat modeling efforts. The Gulf War ended in February 1991 with the defeat of the regular Iraqi army and the liberation of Kuwait. This article picks up four years later,
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 306](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/26/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-306/) - This remains a weekly post, it may become more frequent as events develop. There has been no significant movement on the front lines since the taking of Kherson on 11 November. There is lots of back-and-forth fighting around Bakhmut with the Ukrainians now pushing the Russians back. I have not been following this fight closely
- [The U.S. Army's revised Field Manual FM 3-0: Operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/21/the-u-s-armys-new-field-manual-fm-3-0-operations/) - The new revision of the U.S. Army's Field Manual FM 3-0: Operations is out. It is dated October 2022 and is here: FM 3-0_WEB_Working.pdf (army.mil)I have not read it yet and certainly will not do so this year. I did take a moment to word search its 280 pages. Found one reference to Trevor Dupuy's
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 299](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/19/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-299/) - It has been a week since my last Ukraine post. The only major event was a major air attack against Ukrainian infrastructure on 16th December. According to some counts, this is the ninth large scale missile attack. No significant movement on the front lines since the taking of Kherson on 11 November. There is lots
- [Links to R&D Seminar "Lessons Identified from the War in Ukraine" 6th - 8th December 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/16/links-to-rd-seminar-lessons-identified-from-the-war-in-ukraine-6th-8th-december-2022/) - Attached is a link to the website where you may find all recorded presentations from the R&D seminar “Lessons Identified from the War in Ukraine” 6th-8th December 2022, arranged by the Norwegian Military Academy: 2022: 2022 • WN Event (webcast.no)In the top left corner of the picture, you may go back and forth between day
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 292](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/12/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-292/) - Has been almost a week since my last Ukraine post, in part because I was on travel and in part because there was not a lot more to report. No significant movement on the front lines since the taking of Kherson on 11 November. There is lots of fighting around Bakhmut. Russian has taken the
- [Casualty Estimates for the Russo-Ukrainian War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/14/casualty-estimates-for-the-russo-ukrainian-war/) - I did do a briefing last week in Norway that concluded: Losses in 2022: Ukrainian Army: 13,500 – 16,500 killed 54,000 – 66,000 wounded 6,000 captured 1,000 missing Russian Army: 16,028 – 19,028 killed (including LPR and DPR) 64,112 – 76,112 wounded 1,000 captured 1,000? missing Civilians: 6,655 killed as of 1 December Real figure
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 285](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/06/the-russoukrainian-war-day-285/) - A late-in-the-day update on December 5. I happen to be on travel in Europe. No significant movement on the front lines since the taking of Kherson on 11 November. There is lots of fighting around Bakhmut. Russian has taken the village last week of Andriivka (Bakhmut Oblast) to the south of Bakhmut. Also, some fighting
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 282](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/02/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-282/) - No significant movement on the front lines since the taking of Kherson on 11 November. There is lots of fighting around Bakhmut. Russian has taken the village of Andriivka (Bakhmut Oblast) to the south of Bakhmut. Also, some fighting around Pavlivka. Russia does appear to be seriously trying to take Bakhmut, perhaps by flanking it
- [Date for the next Historical Analysis Annual Conference](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/30/date-for-the-next-historical-analysis-annual-conference/) - I am thinking about hosting the next Historical Analysis Annual Conference on Tuesday - Thursday October 17-19. Columbus Day, which is a federal holiday on 9 October, so feel this is a better time than the week of 3 - 5 October and 10 - 12 October. Opinions? Conference will be organized as before, and
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 278](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/28/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-278/) - No significant movement on the front lines since the taking of Kherson on 11 November. There is lots of fighting around Bakhmut with reports of heavy Ukrainian artillery fire holding back the Russians and Russians doing human wave attacks led by their penal units. I have no idea if any of this is true. Suspect
- [Length of Front Line Trace in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/15/length-of-front-line-trace-in-ukraine/) - Correctly determining the length of the front line can be painstaking and time consuming if you track all the twists and turns in a front line. I am not going to do that, but instead calculate the distance of the front line based on rough point-to-point measurements using the measuring stick in Google earth. Feel
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 275](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/25/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-275/) - No significant movement on the front lines since the taking of Kherson on 11 November. There is lots of fighting around Bakhmut and some around Marinka. There was another big missile bombardment on 23 November that shut down power in Kiev and other places (including Moldova). Not sure how long it will take to restore
- [Presentations from HAAC - Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/22/presentation-from-haac-iraq-data-hypotheses-and-afghanistan/) - Attached is the first presentation for the second day of the conference. It was an old presentation that I gave at the National Intelligence Council (NIC) back in 2008. It was still relevant: NIC Compilation 3.1. Most of this is discussed in my book America's Modern Wars.------------- We had a total of 30 presentations given
- [Presentations from HAAC - Close Combat Overmatch Weapons](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/06/presentations-from-haac-close-combat-overmatch-weapons/) - The fifth event of the second day in the Pike & Gallows Conference Room was a presentation by Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret) on a proposed Close Combat Overmatch Weapon. This came about because of his experiences in Iraq. We will publish more about this later, but do not have a presentation on it at
- [Presentations from HAAC - Group Discussion: Could We Have Won the War in Afghanistan, 2001 - 2021?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/12/01/presentations-from-haac-group-discussion-could-we-have-won-the-war-in-afghanistan-2001-2021/) - The fourth event of the second day in the Pike & Gallows Conference room was a group discussion on whether we could have won the war in Afghanistan. I opened the discussion with a brief 12-slide presentation, built from my original presentation that morning. It is here: Could We Have WonWe then went into a
- [Presentations from HAAC - Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/29/presentations-from-haac-estimating-war-deaths-in-iraq/) - The third presentation of the second day was by Dr. Michael Spagat, an American scholar that teaches at the Royal Holloway University of London. It is called "Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq):" Iraq DeathsDr. Spagat has been focused on examining all casualties in war, and sometimes this has led him to publicly question some of
- [Presentations from HAAC - Lessons Learned from Haiti 1915-1934](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/24/presentations-from-haac-lessons-learned-from-haiti-1915-1934/) - The second presentation on the second day was by Dr. Christopher Davis of UNCG (University of North Carolina, Greensboro) called "History as an Enemy and an Instructor: Lessons Learned from Haiti 1915-1934. It is here: History as an Enemy and InstructorNow, in all my insurgency and counter insurgency work I drew all my cases from
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 271](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/21/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-271/) - Nothing much has happened on the ground since the taking of Kherson on 11 November. Probably the biggest news item this weekend are the videos of ten to twelve Russian POWs allegedly massacred in Makiivka on 12 November (discussed in more detail in the section on "Ukrainian reforms" towards the end of this post). The
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 268](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/18/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-268/) - Actually, nothing new has happened in the last two days. The missile that landed in Poland was probably a Soviet-era S-300 surface-to-air missile, of which most versions have a range of less than 100 miles. Pretty hard for this to be anything other than Ukrainian. We shall see if Russia can maintain their war against
- [Water, Crimea, and Elon Musk](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/17/water-crimea-and-elon-musk/) - This brief article was just sent to me by Dr. Peter Rutland, Wesleyan University: Why Crimea is the key to the Ukraine war - Responsible Statecraft I actually did briefly touch on this when discussing Elon Musk: Elon Musk poll on Ukraine | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 266](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/16/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-266/) - The big news of the day is that Russia launched over 100 missiles at Ukrainian power facilities across the country on 15 November and a parts of a Ukrainian air defense missile landing in Poland, killing two. This was the second mass attack against Ukrainian infrastructure since the 84-missile attack on 10 October. There does
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 264](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/14/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-264/) - Kherson (pop. 283,649 in 2021) is now back under Ukrainian control as is all the area to the north and west of the Dnipro River. The majority of the territory of Kherson Oblast (province) is still under Russian control, but the capital of the province is now under Ukrainian control.This does greatly simplify the Russian
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 261](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/11/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-261/) - Update: They are reporting that Ukrainian troops have entered Kherson. Photos show residents and Ukrainian soldiers celebrating outside the regional administration building. The Russian defense ministry has said that it has withdrawn "more than 30,000 Russian servicemen" from the "right bank." Well, the big news this week was that on 9 November the defense minister of
- [Possible Outcomes of the War?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/21/possible-outcomes-of-the-war/) - So what are the possible outcomes of this war in Ukraine? Well, first it depends on who is advancing and taking ground and what they end up negotiating as a settlement months or years from now. We could be looking at: If Russia continues advancing: A negotiated settlement handing over to Russia the provinces of
- [TLIs and SETI](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/17/tlis-and-seti/) - Just to further expand my mind, it turns out that people discussing SETI (the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) are also discussing TLIs (Theoretical Lethality Index). Stumbled across this link on the internet: 3. Historical evolution of weapons' lethality. Here we show the... | Download Scientific Diagram (researchgate.net) They have this figure, clearly derived from Dupuy:
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 259](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/09/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-259/) - Update: The Russian defense minister has just announced Russia is withdrawing from Kherson and the north bank of the Dnipro River. This is significant. There are clearly some bouts of heavy fighting occurring at parts of the front line, and there has been some limited movement of the lines NE of Kherson. There has been
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 257](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/07/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-257/) - No real movement on the front lines these last three days. There are reports of significant Russian losses last week from the fighting around Pavlivka, but it now appears to be quiet across the entire front. The big question concerns Kherson, where the U.S. DOD and the Ukrainian Defense forces are both saying it is
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War - Day 254 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/04/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-254-ground-actions/) - There is some fighting along the front in a number of locales. The most significant was an advance by Russia on the village of Markivka (pop. 5,586), on the front line between Svatove and Kreminna. The big question concerns Kherson, where the U.S. DOD and the Ukrainian Defense forces are both saying it is about
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 252 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/02/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-252-ground-actions/) - There has been some ground actions over the last couple of days, two Russian attacks that gained a little ground. But otherwise, the front remains relatively static. I will put any changes/updates since my last post in italics. A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map. It is dated 2 November although
- [Ownership of our Twitter account](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/31/ownership-of-our-twitter-account/) - As I am not very interested in paying $5 to $20 monthly to verify my twitter account like Elon Musk is discussing, let me tell you who runs and controls these accounts.The twitter account is operated by The Dupuy Institute. Only two people have access to the account: me (Christopher A. Lawrence) and Dr. Shawn
- [Response to Question on Dupuy's Combat Attrition Verities](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/31/response-to-question-on-dupuys-combat-attrition-verities/) - Someone just sent an email asking about a particular single line on slide 44 of my Data for Wargames briefing I gave at HAAC: "Self-propelled artillery loss rates are about three times greater than for towed guns". The briefing is here: Data for Wargames (Summary) - 2 I noted that this from Trevor Dupuy combat
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 250 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/31/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-250-ground-ations/) - Still, really nothing significant to report. I will put any changes/updates since my last post in italics. A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map. It is dated 31 October although there are no updates dated after 4 October. There has really been no significant movement on the ground for
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 247 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/28/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-247-ground-actions/) - Well, nothing new to report, absolutely nothing new to report. I guess I could talk about Putin's four-hour speech, but why waste time on the ramblings of a frustrated, angry old out-of-touch man. I will put any changes/updates since my last post in italics. A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map. It is
- [Learning Through Defeat -- from William Sayers](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/29/learning-through-defeat-from-william-sayers/) - A new posting from William (Chip) Sayers. This is his eleventh post here.----------William (Chip) Sayers---------------- Learning Through Defeat In April 1980, US military forces of all services participated in a slap-dash operation to liberate US Embassy personnel held by the Iranian government in Tehran. The mission ended in disaster. Through the lessons we learned from
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 245 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/26/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-245-ground-actions/) - Really nothing much new to report for the last two days. Updating this post as a matter of habit. There has really been no significant movement on the ground for over three weeks. There are rumors that something big is about to happen in Kherson, but we will have to wait and see how valid
- [Count of Tanks Lost at Brovary, 9 March 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/26/count-of-tanks-lost-at-brovary-9-march-2022/) - I have been doing a count from videos of the tanks and other vehicles present at the ambush at Brovary on 9 March and the count of their losses. The main video is here: Russian tanks seen being ambushed on outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine - YouTube. I have also looked at 2) The Telegraph “Ukraine
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 243 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/24/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-243-ground-actions/) - There has really been no significant movement on the ground for almost three weeks. There are rumors that something big is about to happen in Kherson, but we will have to wait and see how valid those claims are. Ukraine appears to be doing some limited advances in Lugansk province and has not advanced in
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 240 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/21/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-240-ground-actions/) - There has really been no significant movement on the ground for two weeks. There are rumors that something big is about to happen in Kherson, but we will have to wait and see how valid those claims are. Ukraine appears to have stopped advancing in Lugansk province and has not advanced in while in Kherson
- [Charles Hawkins passed away](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2019/12/22/charles-hawkins-passed-away/) - I just heard that Charles Hawkins, or Chuck Hawkins, passed away September 13, 2019 in Ninilchik Alaska. He was born in 1946. Chuck Hawkins joined Trevor Dupuy's Data Memory Systems Inc. (DMSI) as a vice-president in 1988. He was a former army captain who fought in Vietnam with a strong interest in analysis of combat.
- [Demographics of Russia - part 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/21/demographics-of-russia-part-2/) - From some reason, my original post on this subject (Demographics of Russia | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)) is the second most popular demographic post on this blog based upon the number of hits (although not as popular as this post: Demographics of China | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). I suspect that is because the Russian
- [Where Did Japan Go?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2018/10/23/where-did-japan-go/) - This post is a follow-up to this posting: https://dupuyinstitute.org/2018/09/25/demographics-of-japan/ In that post, I was talking about that there was a time in the 1980s when Japan's GNP was 60% of the United States and people were talking about Japan's economy outgrowing the United States by the year 2000, 2010 or 2020. Now.....we know that did
- [Cost of Iranian "Kamikaze" Drones](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/20/cost-of-iranian-kamikaze-drones/) - I was watching Sky News (UK) last night. In one program (I am not able to now find the link on Youtube) their defense analysis, Professor Michael Clarke, stated that the new Iranian low-tech delta wing "kamikaze" drones cost only $20,000 (see: HESA Shahed 136 - Wikipedia) while the Russian SS-21s cost $300,000 (see: OTR-21
- [A Comment on the New Russian Bombardment Strategy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/20/some-observations-on-the-new-russian-bombardment-strategy/) - It appears that the new Russian strategy includes trying to bomb Ukraine into submission. I do think this approach is a mistake (and this is ignoring the moral implications of such a strategy). While destroying Ukrainian infrastructure does increase the hardship on the people, they are 1) probably willing to temporarily endure such hardship, 2)
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 238 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/19/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-238-ground-actions/) - There has really been no significant movement on the ground for almost two weeks. Ukraine continues to advance slowly in Lugansk province and appears to be advancing even slower in Kherson province. I am not sure the front lines in Kherson have moved at all in the last week. As this may be the last
- [Presentations from HAAC - Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern Front in 1944-45](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/08/presentations-from-haac-air-combat-analysis-on-the-eastern-front-in-1944-45/) - We did have two conference rooms operating and were running parallel briefings for part of the afternoon. The second briefing in the Einstein Conference room of the first day was given by the author Daniel Horvath. It is "Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern Front in 1944-45" (21 slides): Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern
- [Presentations from HAAC - Midway and the Aleutians](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/03/presentations-from-haac-midway-and-the-aleutians/) - We did have two conference rooms operating and were running parallel briefings for part of the afternoon. The first briefing in the Einstein Conference room of the first day was given by Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA). It is "Midway and the Aleutians" (64 slides): Main brief ---------- We had a total of 30 presentations given
- [Presentations from HAAC - TND's Theory of Combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/11/01/presentations-from-haac-tnds-theory-of-combat/) - The seventh and final presentation of the first day was given by Dr. Shawn Woodford. It is "Understanding Dupuy: Trevor N. Dupuy's Theory of Combat" (10 slides): 20220927 HAAC-Understanding Dupuy We then went to dinner. ---------- We had a total of 30 presentations given at the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have the
- [Presentations from HAAC - Weaponizing Historical Analysis: A Case Study of the Introduction of HA Into Doctrine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/27/presentations-from-haac-weaponizing-historical-analysis-a-case-study-of-the-introduction-of-ha-into-doctrine/) - The sixth presentation of the first day was given by Jim Storr. It is "Weaponizing Historical Analysis: A Case Study of the Introduction of HA Into Doctrine" (32 slides): HA Conference DC Sep 22 V1.2 ---------- We had a total of 30 presentations given at the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have the
- [Presentations from HAAC - Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/25/presentations-from-haac-killing-captain-hindsight-quantifying-chance-in-military-history/) - The fifth presentation of the first day was given by Dr. Niall MacKay, University of York. It is "Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History" (161 slides): HAAC2022MacKay ---------- We had a total of 30 presentations given at the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have the briefing slides from most of these
- [Article: "How Western Experts Got the Ukraine War so Wrong"](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/17/article-how-western-experts-got-the-ukraine-war-so-wrong/) - Just got in my email box from the Geopolitical Monitor dated 13 October 2022 written by Taras Kuzio called "How Western Experts Got the Ukraine War so Wrong." I think this is worth repeating, so I have posted it here: How Western Experts Got the Ukraine War So Wrong | Geopolitical Monitor. Hopefully this does
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 236 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/17/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-236-ground-actions/) - Nothing really new to report on over the last ten or so days other than the Crimean bridge being hit and two or more Tadjiks shooting up a Russian training area near Belgorod. Ukraine continues to advance slowly in Lugansk province and appears to be advancing even slower in Kherson province. As this may be
- [Presentations from HAAC - Fitting Lanchester Equations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/18/presentations-from-haac-xxxx/) - The third presentation of the first day was given by Dr. Tom Lucas of the Naval Post-Graduate School (49 slides): Fitting Lanchester equations to time-phased battle data The two of the databases used for this work were the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base (ACSDB) and the Kursk Data Base (KDB). I was the program manager
- [Presentations from HAAC - Data for Wargames](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/13/presentations-from-the-first-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-part-2/) - The second presentation of the first day was given by me. It is here (45 slides): Data for Wargames (Summary) - 2. This presentation was originally prepared for a conference in Norway in December 2021. It was based upon my books America's Modern Wars and War by Numbers. --------------- We had a total of 30
- [Presentations from HAAC - How important are superior numbers?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/20/presentations-from-haac-xxxx2/) - The fourth presentation of the first day was given virtually by Dr. David Kirkpatrick, Emeritus Professor, University College London. It is "How important are superior numbers?" (25 slides): DKirkpatrick Presentation 19 Jan 22 v2 ---------- We had a total of 30 presentations given at the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have the briefing
- [Land Operations and Combined Arms Seminar: Lessons Identified from the War in Ukraine, 6-8 December 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/14/land-operations-and-combined-arms-seminar-lessons-identified-from-the-war-in-ukraine-6-8-december-2022/) - The Land Operations and Combined Arms Seminar: Lessons Identified from the War in Ukraine, in occurring in Oslo Norway, 6-8 December 2022. It is hosted by the Norwegian Military Academy. I will be giving a presentation there on "Some Observations from the War in Ukraine." See: International R&D seminar 6th – 8th of December 2022
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 231 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/12/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-231-ground-actions/) - Nothing really new to report on over the last five days other than the Crimean bridge being hit. Ukraine continues to advance slowly in Lugansk province and appears to be advancing even slower in Kherson province. As this may be the last period of decent weather for a while, it would seem that now is
- [Presentations from the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) - Studying Combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/11/presentations-from-the-first-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac/) - We had a total of 30 presentations given at the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have the briefing slides from most of these presentations. Over the next few weeks, we are going to present the briefing slides on this blog, maybe twice a week (Tuesdays and Thursday). In all cases, this is done
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 229 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/10/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-229-ground-actions/) - Nothing really new to report on over the last three days other than a bridge being hit. Ukraine continues to advance slowly in Lugansk and in Kherson. The bridge attack is discussed in the section below on Crimea. In the Donbas the Ukrainians took Lyman on 1 October and are now advancing towards both Kreminna
- [Conference: Current Perspectives on the History of Guns and Society](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/11/conference-current-perspectives-on-the-history-of-guns-and-society/) - I will be speaking at the Center for the Study of Guns and Society at Wesleyan University in Middleton, Conn. on 14-15 October 2022. The link to it is here: Center for the Study of Guns and Society – Wesleyan University-based center dedicated to interdisciplinary humanities study and teaching on the social and cultural history of firearms (gunsandsocietycenter.com).
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 226 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/07/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-226-ground-actions/) - The two Ukrainian offensives in Lugansk and Kherson provinces continue moving forward, although not particularly fast. In the Donbas the Ukrainians took Lyman on 1 October and are now advancing towards both Kreminna and to the north towards Svatove (pop. 16,420 in 2021). They have taken Borova (pop. 5,174), west of Svatove, as of 3
- [5th Annual Genocide Studies Conference](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/06/5th-annual-genocide-studies-conference/) - The U.S. Naval War College is holding "The Psychology of Genocide" as a virtual conference on Friday October 14, 2022 from 1200-1630. It is hosted by Professor Hayat Alvi. It is a virtual event that is open to the general public. See: Event | 5th Annual Genocide Studies Conference (usnwc.edu) The Keynote Speaker is retired
- [Book Review: Something Rotten: Land Command in the 21st Century by Jim Storr](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/06/book-review-something-rotten-land-command-in-the-21st-century-by-jim-storr/) - Here is a review of the book Something Rotten: Land Command in the 21st Century by Jim Storr: #WavellReviews “Something Rotten: Land Command in the 21st Century” by Jim Storr » Wavell RoomJim Storr was a speaker at the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) and his presentation on "Weaponizing Historical Analysis: A Case Study of
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 224 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/05/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-224-ground-actions/) - The two Ukrainian offensives in Lugansk and Kherson provinces continue moving forward. In the Donbas the Ukrainians took Lyman on 1 October and are now advancing towards both Kreminna and to the north towards Svatove. Not sure exactly where the front line is there. They have taken Borova (pop. 5,174), west of Svatova, as of
- [The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is done](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/04/the-first-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-is-done/) - The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is done. It ran from 27-29 September of last week. Planning has started for the second one. I do want to thank all the people who took their time to come and present. We did have 30 presentations by 22 speakers and two good group discussions. We did
- [Elon Musk poll on Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/03/elon-musk-poll-on-ukraine/) - Elon Musk just published a poll on Ukraine on his twitter account (@elonmusk). The poll said: Ukraine-Russia Peace: - Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people. - Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake). - Water supply to
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 222 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/03/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-222-ground-actions/) - Looks like there is movement on the ground with Ukraine having taken Lyman on 1 October and are now threatening Dudchany to the far NE of Kherson. It appears they now have two major offensives going. Russia did withdraw from Lyman and we have pictures on 1 October of Ukrainian troops there. Not sure how
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 220 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/10/01/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-220-ground-actions/) - This is our first post in a week on Ukraine, was overwhelmed hosting the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). Will be hosting another one next year. For now we are back to discussing Ukraine. Lots of news this week off the battlefield, and some real developments on the battlefield. Let's summarize the news off
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 215 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/26/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-215-ground-actions/) - Off the battlefield we are looking at Russian partial mobilization, referendums, on-going protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg, prisoner exchanges, migrations, and so forth. There is also some action on the battlefield (that discussion starts in the ninth paragraph). Putin has just called up 300,000 reservists, something he had to do if he wanted to
- [Today Starts the First Historical Analysis Conference](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/27/today-starts-the-first-historical-analysis-conference/) - It is open invitation. A payment to Paypal reserves a seat or you can show up at the door. The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) starts on Tuesday the 27th, in Tysons Corner, VA, near DC. We have 32 presentations by 23 speakers and two group discussions planned (Afghanistan and Ukraine). The latest schedule is
- [The First Historical Analysis Conference starts Tomorrow](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/26/the-first-historical-analysis-conference-starts-tomorrow/) - It is open invitation. A payment to Paypal reserves a seat or you can show up at the door. The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) starts on Tuesday the 27th, in Tysons Corner, VA, near DC. We have 32 presentations by 23 speakers and two group discussions planned (Afghanistan and Ukraine). The latest schedule is
- [The First Historical Analysis Conference starts in Two Days](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/25/the-first-historical-analysis-conference-starts-in-two-days/) - The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) starts on Tuesday the 27th, in Tysons Corner, VA, near DC. We have 32 presentations by 23 speakers and two group discussions planned (Afghanistan and Ukraine). The latest schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 | Mystics & Statistics
- [A Projected Plan for the Russo-Ukrainian War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/24/a-projected-plan-for-the-russo-ukrainian-war/) - Let me take a moment to speculate as to what the Russian plan is for this war for the next year. It is clear they have one, whether well-conceived or not. Putin has done a partial mobilization of at least 300,000 reservists. It might end up being more than that, but the initial figures are
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 212 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/23/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-212-ground-actions/) - Well, a lot of is going on with this war, just not a lot of it on the battlefield. We are looking at Russian partial mobilization, referendums, protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg, prisoner exchanges, and so forth, but not a lot of movement on the field of battle. This war is going to continue well
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 210 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/21/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-210-ground-actions/) - Well, this war is going to continue well into 2023. Putin has just called up 300,000 reservists, something he had to do if he wanted to continue the war. It is a partial mobilization. This of course will take a while to activate, train, organize and deploy. Probably months. He also is conducting rigged referendums
- [The First Historical Analysis Conference is in Five Days](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/22/the-first-historical-analysis-conference-is-in-five-days/) - The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) starts on Tuesday the 27th, in Tysons Corner, VA, near DC. We have 32 presentations by 23 speakers and two group discussions planned (Afghanistan and Ukraine). The latest schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 | Mystics &
- [The First Historical Analysis Conference is in Seven Days](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/20/the-first-historical-analysis-conference-is-in-seven-days/) - The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) starts in one week on Tuesday the 27th, in Tysons Corner, VA, near DC. We have 32 presentations by 23 speakers and two group discussions planned (Afghanistan and Ukraine). The latest schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 208 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/19/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-208-ground-actions/) - There really has not been any major news from Ukraine in over a week. Kupyansk and Izyum was taken on 10 September and no major locales have changed hands since then. Ukraine has forces east of the Oskil River, east of the line of Kupyansk (pop. 27,169 in 2021) to Izyum (pop. 45,884 in 2021)
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 16](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/17/schedule-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-16/) - Latest update to the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have 32 presentations scheduled by 23 speakers and 2 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another half-dozen more presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. We
- [The Third Special Conference on Historical Data Analysis (SCOHDA III)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/17/the-third-special-conference-on-historical-data-analysis-scohda-iii/) - Just searching around the internet on definitions of what historical analysis is and stumbled across this: /tardir/tiffs/a377305.tiff (dtic.mil). This Historical Data Analysis conference (SCOHDA IIII) was hosted by the Center for Army Analysis (CAA) at Fort Belvoir. This conference occurred in March 2000. Previous conferences had occurred in 1989 and 1995. I had never heard
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 205 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/16/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-205-ground-actions/) - Ukraine has forces east of the Oskil River, east of the line of Kupyansk to Izyum but how far east is hard to tell. There are still reports of Russians around Kupyansk. There are no reports of Ukrainians as far as Svatove. So, has the Ukrainian offensive paused along the Oskil River or is it
- [The First Historical Analysis Conference is in 12 Days](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/15/the-first-historical-analysis-conference-is-in-12-days/) - The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) starts in less than two weeks, on Tuesday the 27th, in Tysons Corner, VA, near DC. We have 32 presentations by 22 speakers and two group discussions planned. The schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 15 | Mystics
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 203 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/14/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-203-ground-actions/) - Ukraine has apparently cleared all of Kharkov province and is advancing in Lugansk province. They have already managed to clear around one-sixth of area Russia was still holding. This is a big victory, but it hardly ends the war. They still need to reclaim the provinces of Lugansk, Donetsk, the rest of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and
- [Historical Analysis Conference in Two Weeks](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/13/historical-analysis-conference-in-two-weeks/) - The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) starts in two weeks, on Tuesday the 27th, in Tysons Corner, VA, near DC. We have 32 presentations by 22 speakers and two group discussions planned. The schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 15 | Mystics & Statistics
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 201 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/12/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-201-ground-actions/) - A dramatic few days. Ukraine initiated an offensive to the NW of Izyum (SE of Kharkov) around 6 September, taking the town of Verbivka, right next to Balakliya. Balakliya is 25 miles (41 kilometers) NW of Izyum. They achieved a breakthrough on 8 September near Balakliya (pop. 26,921). On 8 September, in addition to taking Balakliya
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 199 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/10/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-199-ground-actions/) - A dramatic few days as Ukraine has achieved a breakthrough the NW of Izyum (SE of Kharkov) and has now advance behind Izyum threatening to take Kupyansk (pop. 27,169) and to cut off significant Russian forces. The offensive to the SE of Kharkov appears to have started around 6 September, taking the town of Verbivka,
- [Updates to Day 199 blog post](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/10/updates-to-day-199-blog-post/) - Just to put all my updates in one place to today's earlier blog post on day 199 of the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022: Update: Well, we have already gotten the answers to the above questions. Russia withdrew today (10 September) from Izyum. It was reported that on 9 September the suburbs of Oskil and Kapytolivka were
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 198 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/09/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-198-ground-actions/) - While it does look like Ukraine has made real progress in two areas to the NE of Kherson and to the SE of Kharkov, one can overrate the progress. It does not appear that they have made much further progress in Kherson province besides Bruskinske and Vysopillia. We may see more this weekend, or this
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 15](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/08/schedule-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-15/) - Latest update to the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have 32 presentations scheduled by 22 speakers and 2 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another half-dozen more presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 196 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/07/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-196-ground-actions/) - Ukraine does look to be making progress, bit by bit. Far from a blitzkrieg, but it does look like they have made real progress in two areas to the NE of Kherson and also at Kharkov. Furthermore, this appears to be coordinated with their special operations and insurgency efforts behind the lines, with a Russian
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 194 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/05/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-194-ground-actions/) - The Ukrainian August Offensive is in its eighth day and is making some forward progress. It is reported that 1) they took Bruskinske (pop. 436 in 2001) by 1 September (might still be contested), 2) the village of Tomnya Balka, 14 kilometers to the west of Kherson has been taken (not confirmed); 3) the village
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 191 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/02/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-191-ground-actions/) - The Ukrainian August Offensive has started and is in its fifth day. Ukraine’s Operational Command South have announced on 29 August that they have launched an offensive “in many directions in the south of Ukraine.” They are claiming that they “have breached the occupiers’ first line of defense near Kherson.” This appears to be much
- [Schedule of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 14](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/09/01/schedule-of-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-14/) - Latest update to the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We now have 33 presentations scheduled by 23 speakers and 2 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another half-dozen more presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 189 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/31/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-189-ground-actions/) - The Ukrainian August Offensive has started. Ukraine’s Operational Command South have announced on 29 August that they have launched an offensive “in many directions in the south of Ukraine.” They are claiming that they “have breached the occupiers’ first line of defense near Kherson.” This appears to be much anticipated Kherson offensive. According to CNN
- [Range of Offensive Options in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/30/range-of-offensive-options-in-ukraine/) - I was having a discussion on instant message last night with a family member about the new Ukrainian offensive and ended up making the following remarks (yes, I do number my posts even in private discussions): The range of offensive options in Ukraine are: Turns into a limited advance because of significant Russian resistance (and
- [Body Counts - What Can They Tell Us?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/30/body-counts-what-can-they-tell-us/) - A new posting from William (Chip) Sayers. This is his tenth post here. He will be presenting at our Historical Analysis conference: Who’s Who at HAAC – part 1 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Schedule of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 13 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). -------------------William
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 187 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/29/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-187-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground for almost two months. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Limited advances along the front in August. The Russian advances are now on the outskirts of Bakhmut (pop. 72.310) and threatening to take the
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 184 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/26/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-184-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground for over a month. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Limited advances along the front in August. The Russian advances are now on the outskirts of Bakhmut (pop. 72.310) and threatening to
- [Phalanx Article: What We Have Learned from Doing Historical Analysis](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/25/phalanx-article-what-we-have-learned-from-doing-historical-analysis/) - The Phalanx is the quarterly journal for the Military Operations Research Society (MORS). I did have an article in the Summer issue of the journal called "What We Have Learned from Doing Historical Analysis." This originally was just an aside in an email exchange between Dr. Dean Hartley, Dr. Robert Helmbold and I that Dean
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 182 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/24/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-182-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground for over a month. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. The Russian advances are now on the outskirts of Bakhmut (pop. 72.310) and threatening to take the city. I will put any changes/updates
- [Schedule of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 13](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/23/schedule-of-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-13/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We now have 33 presentations scheduled by 23 speakers and 2 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another half-dozen more presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 180 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/22/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-180-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground for over a month. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Lot of news lately, not sure how much is significant. The Russian advances are now on the outskirts of Bakhmut (pop. 72.310) and
- [Economist Article on Urban Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/20/economist-article-on-urban-warfare/) - The Economist published an in-depth article this week on urban warfare. It is here: Armies are re-learning how to fight in cities | The EconomistYou will not be able to read the entire article without a subscription, but I think I can quote the two most important paragraphs as fair use: The biggest question is
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 177 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/19/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-177-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground for over a month. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. The big news this week is a possible third Ukrainian attack on 18 August in Crimea at Belbek airport, 9 kilometers (6 miles)
- [Schedule of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 12](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/18/schedule-of-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-12/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms and are issuing out a call for presentations. We now have 35 presentations scheduled by 24 speakers and 2 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another half-dozen presentations. Each slot
- [Murmansk](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2016/01/26/murmansk/) - I still have a half dozen blog posts to make on airpower and insurgencies, but I am going to shift directions for a little bit to discuss affairs in Eastern Europe. In 1919 a young man from Liverpool ended up in Murmansk, Russia on board the British merchant ship the S.S. Nigeria. This British and
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 175 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/17/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-175-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground for over a month. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. The big news this week is the second Ukrainian attack in Crimea. This is discussed in more depth below in the section
- [The Defensive Value of Urban Terrain According to the QJM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/16/the-defensive-value-of-urban-terrain-according-to-the-qjm/) - According to the Trevor Dupuy's Quantified Judgment Model (QJM), as described in the book Numbers, Predictions and War (1985 edition), the value of defending is urban terrain is between 1.82 to 2.24. This is a multiplier to the combat value of the defender.This consists of the value of a defense posture (Table 5, page 230)...
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 173 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/15/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-173-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground for over a month. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Both sides are rumored to be starting major offensives this month. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive towards Slovyansk or Bakhmut
- [Test Posting](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/12/test-posting/) - For some reason our last post did not show up on twitter: The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 170 (ground actions) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Reposted the original post. That solved the problem.
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 170 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/12/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-170-ground-actions-2/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground for over a month. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Both sides are rumored to be starting major offensives this month. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive towards Slovyansk or Bakhmut
- [Summation of Who's Who at HAAC (revised)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/11/summation-of-whos-who-at-haac-revised/) - Our first Historical Analysis conference is occurring 27-29 September 2022. It is open invitation. The schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 11 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). We have 36 presentations scheduled by 25 speakers and 2 group discussions planned. We still have slots open
- [Vincent B. Hawkins has passed away](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/15/vincent-b-hawkins-has-passed-away/) - I just heard that Vincent Hawkins, former HERO and DMSI employee, passed away yesterday. Born in August 1955 he was 66 years old. He came to work for Trevor Dupuy's HERO/DMSI around 1986 and was there when I arrived. Always outgoing and welcoming, he had a master's degree in history, was fluent in German and
- [The Defensive Value of Urban Terrain](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/11/the-defensive-value-of-urban-terrain/) - I probably should have blogged about this long ago, but you now, it is hard to stay on top of the blog and keep working on all various books that I keep signing contracts for. Anyhow, we started getting hits on this blog from this article: Urban Operations in Ukraine: Size, Ratios, and the Principles
- [Who's Who at HAAC - part 4](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/11/whos-who-at-haac-part-4/) - We have blogged about the work of a few of our presenters at HAAC. The schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 11 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Let me flag a few our most recent additions. This is our fourth post on this. 1. Matt
- [Who's Who at HAAC - part 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/07/whos-who-at-haac-part-2/) - We have blogged about the work of a few of our presenters at HAAC. Schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 7 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Let me flag a few those. This is our second post on this. 1. Dr. Robert Helmbold: Bob Helmbold
- [Who's Who at HAAC - part 3](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/09/whos-who-at-haac-part-3/) - We have blogged about the work of a few of our presenters at HAAC. Schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 7 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Let me flag a few those. This is our third post on this. Probably no more posts on this
- [Who's Who at HAAC - part 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/02/whos-who-at-haac-part-1/) - We have blogged about the work of a few of our presenters at HAAC. The schedule for the conference is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 7 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Let me flag a few those presenters. This will take three or four posts:1. Dr.
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 11](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/09/schedule-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-11/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 36 presentations scheduled by 25 speakers and 2 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another half-dozen presentations. Each slot
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 168 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/10/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-168-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground for over a month. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Both sides are rumored to be starting major offensives this month. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive towards Slovyansk soon or
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 166 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/08/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-166-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground for over a month. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Not sure when and where we are going to see any real movement, though. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 163 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/05/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-163-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground for a month. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Not sure when and where we are going to see any real movement, though. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive towards Slovyansk
- [Leveling the Playing Field in Ukraine (part 3)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/04/leveling-the-playing-field-in-ukraine-part-3/) - Follow-up to William (Chip) Sayers posts Leveling the Playing Field in Ukraine (part 1) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Leveling the Playing Field in Ukraine (part 2) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). This is his ninth post here. He will be presenting at our Historical Analysis conference: Who’s Who at HAAC – part 1
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 161 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/03/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-161-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground for almost a month. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Not sure when and where we are going to see any real movement, though. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive
- [Hellfire R9X](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/03/hellfire-r9x/) - The missile used to kill Al-Zawahiri in Kabul was the Hellfire AGM-114 R9X. Don't know the range of this missile, but the AGM-114R Hellfire II has a range of 11,000 meters. It was fired from a "Reaper Drone." The General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper is a UAV with a range of 1,200 miles (1,900 kilometers) and
- [The Battle of Britain versus The Battle of Kursk](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/03/the-battle-of-britain-versus-the-battle-of-kursk/) - I do have a blog post on the Pen & Sword Blog on Aces at Kursk. The book will be released in the UK on 30 August and in the U.S. on 31 October. The post is here: Author guest post: Christopher A Lawrence - Pen & Sword Blog (pen-and-sword.co.uk). Also: Aces at Kursk |
- [Common Use, Lineage, and Lethality](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/02/common-use-lineage-and-lethality/) - Below is an article from the UC Davis Law Review that references Trevor Dupuy 75 times, references me 9 times and references Susan Rich 8 times. The article is Common Use, Lineage, and Lethality by Darrell A. H. Miller & Jennifer Tucker: Microsoft Word - 55-5_Miller_Tucker.docx (ucdavis.edu). It still seems strange to me that a
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 10](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/02/schedule-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-10/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 35 presentations scheduled by 24 speakers and 2 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another half-dozen presentations. Each slot
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 159 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/08/01/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-159-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground in almost four weeks. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Not sure when and where we are going to see any real movement, though. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive
- [The Soviet Army's High Commands in War and Peace, 1941-1992](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/30/the-soviet-armys-high-commands-in-war-and-peace-1941-1992/) - Released as of 20 July, 2022 is a new book from Richard W. Harrison, The Soviet Army's High Commands in War and Peace, 1941-1992. It is available from Amazon here: The Soviet Army's High Commands in War and Peace, 1941–1992: Harrison, Richard W: 9781952715105: Amazon.com: Books Richard Harrison will be presenting at the Historical Analysis
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 156 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/29/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-156-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground in over three weeks. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Not sure when and where we are going to see any real movement, though. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive towards
- [Leveling the Playing Field in Ukraine (part 2)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/28/leveling-the-playing-field-in-ukraine-part-2/) - Follow-up William (Chip) Sayers post to Leveling the Playing Field in Ukraine (part 1) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). This is his eighth post here. He will be presenting at our Historical Analysis conference: Who’s Who at HAAC – part 1 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). This is the second of three posts on the
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 154 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/27/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-154-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground in over three weeks. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Not sure when and where we are going to see any real movement, though. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive
- [Hotels for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/25/hotels-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022/) - Dining and Hotels are at the expense of the attendees. The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is
- [Economist Article on Russian Casualty Estimates](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/26/economist-article-on-russian-casualty-estimates/) - Sunday evening (probably Monday UK time) The Economist published an article called "How heavy are Russian casualties in Ukraine?" It is here (but not fully available if you do not have a subscription): How heavy are Russian casualties in Ukraine? | The Economist. The Dupuy Institute was name-checked in the article and the author gave
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 152 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/25/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-152-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground in over two weeks. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Not sure when and where we are going to see any real movement, though. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 149 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/22/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-149-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground in over two weeks. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Not sure when and where we are going to see any real movement, though. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - part 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/08/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-part-2/) - And then there is this article: Troop-to-Task: A Russian Invasion of Ukraine What catches my attention about this article is the discussion of whether "troop-to-task" ratios, also known as tie-down ratios, sometimes also known as force ratios; should be measured based upon population or based upon insurgent strength. To quote from his article: "Throughout the Iraq
- [Aces at Kursk - Chapter Listing](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/21/aces-at-kursk-chapter-listing/) - Below is the list of chapters in my new book coming out next month: Aces at Kursk: The Battle of Aerial Supremacy on the Eastern Front 1943. It is with Pen & Sword in the UK. The release date in the UK is 30 August. We have the UK Amazon link here: Buy from Amazon (UK). The
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 147 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/20/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-147-ground-actions/) - There remains no significant movement on the ground in over two weeks. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks since then. More civilian deaths as a result. Not sure when and where we are going to see any real movement, though. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive
- [Leveling the Playing Field in Ukraine (part 1)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/19/leveling-the-playing-field-in-ukraine-part-1/) - Another William (Chip) Sayers post. This is his seventh post here. He will be presenting at our Historical Analysis conference: Who’s Who at HAAC – part 1 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). This is the first of three posts on the subject. ———————–William (Chip) Sayers—————— Leveling the Playing Field in Ukraine (part 1) In the
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 145 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/18/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-145-ground-actions/) - Again, no significant movement on the ground over the last two weeks. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks. More civilian deaths as a result. Not sure when and where we are going to see any real movement, though. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive towards Slovyansk soon
- ["France has delivered almost nothing"](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/18/france-has-delivered-almost-nothing/) - Interview with Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the secretary-general of NATO from 2009-2014: ‘France Has Delivered Almost Nothing’ (msn.com). Several quotable lines from that interview like: "Putin wanted less NATO. He got more NATO." He does make the claim that: "France has delivered almost nothing. The scale of French deliveries is equivalent to what Denmark has offered
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 142 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/15/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-142-ground-actions/) - No significant movement on the ground in over a week. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks. More civilian deaths as a result. Not sure when and where we are going to see any real movement, though. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive towards Slovyansk soon or a Ukrainian offensive around Kherson in
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 140 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/13/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-140-ground-actions/) - No significant movement on the ground in over a week. Lots of artillery shelling and missile attacks. Not sure when and where we are going to see any real movement. People are talking about a renewed Russian offensive towards Slovyansk soon or a Ukrainian offensive around Kherson in August. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia.
- [U.S. Records in the Gulf War (1991)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2017/11/22/u-s-records-in-the-gulf-war-1991/) - Of course, there were problems with the U.S. Army record keeping in the Gulf War (1991). There were serious problems with the U.S. Army record keeping in the Vietnam War (1965-1973), so not surprising, the problem had not been corrected, and the same problems existed 20 years later. In the Vietnam War, the 82nd Airborne Division pretty
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 9](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/14/schedule-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-9/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 34 presentations scheduled by 24 speakers and 3 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another half-dozen presentations. Each slot
- [Aces at Kursk](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/12/aces-at-kursk/) - Oh, and by the way, I have a new book coming out next month: Aces at Kursk: The Battle of Aerial Supremacy on the Eastern Front 1943. It is with Pen & Sword in the UK. The release date in the UK is 30 August. We have the UK Amazon link here: Buy from Amazon (UK).
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 138 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/11/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-138-ground-actions/) - It has been quiet now for a week. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. The Russians have advanced some to the west since then, but people are now talking about an “operational pause.” I am really not sure what that means. You either have the aggregated combat power to move forward against your opponent or
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 135 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/08/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-135-ground-actions/) - Five days of quiet. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. They have advanced some to the west since then, but people are now talking about an "operational pause." I am really not sure what that means. You either have the aggregated combat power to move forward against your opponent or you don't. If you don't,
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 8](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/21/schedule-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-8/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 31 presentations scheduled by 21 speakers and 3 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations.
- [Drone Survivability](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/08/drone-survivability/) - On 30 June, we posted a guest post from William (Chip) Sayers on Scoring the KF51 Panther and the Future of the MBT | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). The article generated some discussion on the blog which he partially responded to, but he felt the need to assemble a proper response. This is included below:
- [Interview video about Afghanistan](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/07/interview-video-about-afghanistan/) - This is a video of an interview of William Lawrence (my brother) about his two deployments in Afghanistan: William Lawrence | Americans in Wartime Experience. He spent 23 months there.It is part of series that the Americans in Wartime Museum has been doing on interviewing veterans: Americans in Wartime Experience They have 529 interviews posted
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 133 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/06/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-133-ground-actions/) - Two days of quiet although it has not been that quiet. Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. The Ukrainians withdrew under increasing pressure from Russian advances to the north and south of the city. This gives Russia control of all of Lugansk province. It took them over a month to take Severodonetsk. It took them
- [Sixteen Questions about the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/05/sixteen-questions-about-the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022/) - What I don't know about this war vastly exceeds that I do know. Let me put up a partial list of some of the things I don't know. Maybe someone out there knows the answer: Concerning strength: 1. What is the strength of the Ukrainian regular army?2. What is effective strength of the deployed, trained
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 131 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/04/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-131-ground-actions/) - Lysychansk fell yesterday to Russia. The Ukrainians withdrew under increasing pressure from Russian advances to the north and south of the city. This gives Russia control of all of Lugansk province. It took them over a month to take Severodonetsk. It took them a less than two weeks to take Lysychansk. The next major objectives
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 128 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/07/01/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-128-ground-actions/) - Severodonetsk has fallen, the Russians have advanced into the southern parts of Lysychansk and Russia withdrew from Snake Island. Russia has also advanced to the southwest outskirts of Lysychansk. The Russian withdraw from Snake Island has more symbolic significance than a military one but was an untenable position for them. Also, looks like Sweden and
- [Scoring the KF51 Panther and the Future of the MBT](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/30/scoring-the-kf51-panther-and-the-future-of-the-mbt/) - Another William (Chip) Sayers post. This is his fifth post here. He will be presenting at our Historical Analysis conference: Who’s Who at HAAC – part 1 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). ———————–William (Chip) Sayers—————— Scoring the KF51 Panther and the Future of the MBT The German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall recently announced the rollout of
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 126 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/29/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-126-ground-actions/) - Severodonetsk has fallen and Lysychansk is now in danger of being taken. Russia has advanced to the southwest outskirts of Lysychansk. Movement on the ground has gone back to being incremental. The Russian push through Toshkivka (pop. 4088) appears to have undone the Ukrainian defensive positions in Lugansk province. They withdrew from Severodonetsk, withdrew from
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 125 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/28/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-125-ground-actions/) - Severodonetsk has fallen and Lysyschansk is now in danger of being taken. Russia has advanced to the southwest outskirts of Lysychansk. The Russian push through Toshkivka (pop. 4088) appears to have undone the Ukrainian defensive positions in Lugansk province. They withdrew from Severodonetsk, withdrew from Zolote, and the Russians are now at the outskirts of
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 124 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/27/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-124-ground-actions/) - Severodonetsk has fallen and Lysyschansk is now in danger of being taken. The Russian push through Toshkivka (pop. 4088) appears to have undone the Ukrainian defensive positions in Lugansk province. They withdrew from Severodonetsk, withdrew from Zolote, and the Russians are now at the outskirts of Lysychansk. Image is from @War_Mapper, 25 June. Note that
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 123 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/26/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-123-ground-actions/) - Severodonetsk has fallen and Lysyschansk is now in danger of being taken. The Russian push through Toshkivka (pop. 4088) appears to have undone the Ukrainian defensive positions in Lugansk province. They withdrew from Severodonetsk, withdrew from Zolote, and the Russians are now at the outskirts of Lysychansk. Image is from @War_Mapper, 25 June. Note that
- [Summation of Who's Who at HAAC](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/28/summation-of-whos-who-at-haac/) - Our first Historical Analysis conference is occurring 27-29 September 2022. It is open invitation. The schedule is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 8 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). We have set up three potential group discussions: 1) Could We Have Won the War in Afghanistan 2001-2021?,
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 121 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/24/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-121-ground-actions/) - The Russian push through Toshkivka (pop. 4088) appears to be undoing the Ukrainian defensive positions in Lugansk province. It looks like the Ukrainians are going to have to withdraw from Severodonetsk, withdraw from Zolote, and the Russians are now at the outskirts of Lysychansk. The Ukrainian Luhansk governor has said that forces in Severodonetsk has
- [Density of Deployment in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/23/density-of-deployment-in-ukraine/) - One thing that stands out on this battlefield is that there is not a lot of troops covering a lot of area. As far as I can tell, for this war in Ukraine, each side has about 200,000 or so regular troops, after all new recruits and old losses are counted for. I actually have
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 119 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/22/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-119-ground-actions/) - Russia made some significant progress yesterday, taking the town of Toshkivka (pop. 4,088) and the villages of Pidlisne and Myrna Dolyna. This puts them around 4 miles from the right flank of Lysychansk, potentially exposing Ukrainian positions there. Image is from @War_Mapper, dated 12 hours ago (as of 8:32 AM). Still, between Bila Gora to
- [Two American dead, two captured and one missing in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/20/two-american-dead-two-captured-and-one-missing-in-ukraine/) - There is a good article in Rolling Stone that recounts the American and other foreign fighter losses in Ukraine. Recommend reading the whole article: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/stephen-zabielski-russia-ukraine-conflict-1371094/To summarize the losses: Two American's have been killed. Willy Joseph Concel, Jr., 22, died in late April. He was an ex-Marine from New York/Tennessee with no combat experience. Stephen D. Zabielski,
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 117 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/20/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-117-ground-actions/) - There is really nothing new to report on the ground since my last post on Friday. The situation has remained mostly unchanged for the last seven days. I do think that everything stalling out for a week is news. About 80% of Severodonetsk is under Russian control. All three bridges across the river between Severodonetsk and
- [Three Summer Conferences](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/24/three-summer-conferences/) - This June and July there are three conferences occurring that you should be aware of: First is MORS 90th Symposium from 13 - 16 June at Quantico, Virginia: https://www.mors.org/Next is ISMOR from 19 - 21 July at Royal Holloway University in London: http://ismor.com/Finally, there is Connections on 26 - 29 July at IDA in Alexandria,
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 114 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/17/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-114-ground-actions/) - There is really nothing new to report on the ground, the situation has remained mostly unchanged for the last four days. The big news is that Ukraine and Moldova are now recommended to be candidate members in the EU. It took a little bit to get there, but now things are moving in the right
- [VVS View of Air Superiority](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/16/vvs-view-of-air-superiority/) - Alright, another William (Chip) Sayers post. This is his fourth post here. He will be presenting at our Historical Analysis conference: Who’s Who at HAAC – part 1 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). -----------------------William (Chip) Sayers------------------ VVS View of Air Superiority From the start of the current war in Ukraine, the TV talking heads have
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 112 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/15/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-112-ground-actions/) - There is really nothing new to report, situation has remained mostly unchanged for the last two days. All three bridges across the river between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk have been destroyed, leaving Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk a little isolated. Russia seems to be slowly taking Severodonetsk. Russia controls the majority of the city. The mayor said
- [So How Long is this War Going to Last?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/14/so-how-long-is-this-war-going-to-last/) - I first started drafting this post on 5 March. I then stopped work on it, because, you know, there were a lot of possible outcomes back then and if we waited long enough, some options would come off the table. The options that have disappeared was that this war was going to last only a
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 110 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/13/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-110-ground-actions/) - Russia seems to be slowly taking Severodonetsk. Russia controls the majority of the city. The mayor said on 12 June that Ukraine still controls a third of the city. As of 12 June Ukraine still controlled the eastern suburb of Metolkine. I am not sure that Lysychansk, in a well defended position, is in any
- [CBC on 1420](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/11/cbc-on-1420/) - I have been following the 1420 street interview youtube site for a while. There was just a decent youtube video done on 1420 (Daniil Orain) by the Canadian Broadcast Corporation (CBC): YouTuber behind 1420 brings Russian dissent to the world - YouTube. It is 9.04 long. My previous posts of 1420: 1420 | Mystics &
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 107 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/10/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-107-ground-actions/) - The fight for Severodonetsk continues. Russia controls the majority of the city. Don't know if that means 60% or 90%, but I gather it is closer to the later. I assume they also control the eastern suburb of Metolkine. Over the last two days, that is really the only story. Not much else has changed.
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 105 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/08/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-105-ground-actions/) - Since Saturday (June 4) Ukraine has been saying they control around half of Severodonetsk. They also took the eastern suburb of Metolkine. Not sure they continue to hold it. It does appear that Russia is again pushing forward in Severdonetsk with the majority of the city now under Russian control. Zelenskyy did state that Russians
- [A Strategy Page Article and Trevor Dupuy and Validation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/08/a-strategy-page-article-and-trevor-dupuy-and-validation/) - An article appeared this week in the Strategy Page, which while a little rambling and unfocused, does hit on a few points of importance to us. The article is here: Murphy's Law: What is Real on the Battlefield. Not sure of the author. But let me make a few rambling and unfocused comments on the article. First they
- [The Severskii Donets River Crossing Operation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/09/the-severskii-donets-river-crossing-operation/) - This is another piece of TNDM analysis from William (Chip) Sayers. He will be doing a presentation at our Historical Analysis conference: Who’s Who at HAAC – part 1 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Now, I have questioned the Ukrainian estimates of overall casualties: The Ukrainian casualty claims are inflated – part 1 | Mystics
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 103 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/06/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-103-ground-actions/) - Lots of back and forth over Sievierodonetsk this weekend. On 27 May a Russian group broke into the Myr Hotel. On 30 May they were reported to have entered the northeastern and southeastern parts of Sievierodonetsk. Two days later, they took 70% of the city and took another 10% over the next two days. Ukraine
- [Wounded-to-killed ratios in Ukraine in 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/06/wounded-to-killed-ratios-in-ukraine-in-2022/) - I made a post on Friday that unsurprisingly got some pushback on twitter. It is here: The Ukrainian casualty claims are inflated – part 1 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). One of the twitter complaints is that I used a wounded-to-killed ratio of 4-to-1 for my challenge of the Ukrainian kill claims. This was based
- [The Ukrainian casualty claims are inflated - part 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/03/the-ukrainian-casualty-claims-are-inflated-part-1/) - Just to state the obvious, the Ukrainian Army claims of Russian casualties are inflated. Still, I find people on twitter who are repeating the Ukrainian claims like they are fact, including people with significant followings (100K+). They are even doing some estimates of Russian dead per day, based upon this questionable data. They should know
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 100 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/03/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-100-ground-actions/) - Tempted to say day 100 of 3. Tempted to put together a listing of all the wars where people predicted a short and decisive result and did not get one (the old "Home before the leaves fall" or "mission accomplished" syndrome). Suspect it would be a very long list. The big news is that Russian
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 98 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/06/01/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-98-ground-actions/) - The big news is that Russian in the last two days has managed to take most (70%) of Sievierodonetsk. Ukraine is reporting that "Part of the Ukrainian troops" have now "retreated to more advantageous, pre-prepared positions" while other troops continue "fighting inside the city." This looks like a planned and phased withdrawal. This is a
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 7](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/31/schedule-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-7/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 30 presentations scheduled by 20 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 96 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/30/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-96-ground-actions/) - Fighting going on in around eight locales along the front, but no major changes in the lines over the last two days (my last post was on day 93). Russia took back some area north of Kharkov and lost some other territory in the area nearby as Ukraine again pushed to another part of the
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 93 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/27/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-93-ground-actions/) - Still fighting around Poposna (south of Sievierodonetsk) and towards Bakhmut but no towns have been confirmed to have changed hands since 24 May. There are claims that Lyman was taken 25 May and that Zolote has been taken. Russian forces have entered Sievierodonetsk. Russia is still gaining ground around Sievierodonetsk and it appears that this
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 92 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/26/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-92-ground-actions/) - Nothing really new for today, just updated the weather, civilian casualties, news about Mariupol commander and T-62Ms at Melitipol. If you read yesterday's post (Day 91) you can skip this one. The big news is what is occurring off the battlefield, where U.S. and other international aid is now providing more than $90 billion in
- [A Second Independent Effort to use the QJM/TNDM to Analyze the War in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/26/a-second-independent-effort-to-use-the-qjm-tndm-to-analyze-the-war-in-ukraine/) - This is the second such effort we are presenting. The first is here: An Independent Effort to Use the QJM to Analyze the War in Ukraine | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) We have had no involvement in either effort, although we have had a relationship with the author of this second effort that dates back
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 91 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/25/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-91-ground-actions/) - The big news is what is occurring off the battlefield, where U.S. and other international aid is now providing more than $90 billion in aid to Ukraine. Over the long run this will change the military balance between Ukraine and Russia, unless Russia fully mobilizes for war. They seem hesitant to do this. On the
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 90 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/24/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-90-ground-actions/) - The big news is what is occurring off the battlefield, where U.S. and other international aid is now providing more than $90 billion in aid to Ukraine. Over the long run this will change the military balance between Ukraine and Russia, unless Russia fully mobilizes for war. They seem hesitant to do this. On the
- [The Russo-Ukranian War of 2022 - Day 89 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/23/the-russo-ukranian-war-of-2022-day-89-ground-actions/) - The big news is what is occurring off the battlefield, where U.S. and other international aid is now providing more than $90 billion in aid to Ukraine. Over the long run this will change the military balance between Ukraine and Russia, unless Russia fully mobilizes for war. They seem hesitant to do this. No villages
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 87 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/21/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-87-ground-actions/) - The big news of the week occurred off the battlefield, with the U.S. congress approving a $40 billion aid bill for Ukraine. That along with previous aid from dozens of other countries ($20-$25 billion), new economic aid from the G-7 (now reported at $19.8 billion), the previous U.S. aid bill in March ($13 billion),
- [Some Background on TDI Data Bases](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/11/some-background-on-tdi-data-bases/) - The Dupuy Institute (TDI) are sitting on a number of large combat databases that are unique to us and are company proprietary. For obvious reasons they will stay that way for the foreseeable future.The original database of battles came to be called the Land Warfare Data Base (LWDB). It was also called the CHASE database
- [Counting Holes in Tanks in Tunisia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2019/08/12/counting-holes-in-tanks-in-tunisia/) - [NOTE: This piece was originally posted on 23 August 2016] A few years ago, I came across a student battle analysis exercise prepared by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute on the Battle of Kasserine Pass in Tunisia in February 1943. At the time, I noted the diagram below (click for larger version), which showed
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 86 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/20/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-86-ground-actions/) - The big news of the day occurred off the battlefield, with the U.S. congress approving a $40 billion aid bill for Ukraine. That along with previous aid, new aid from the G-7, aid from dozens of other countries, and so forth, is pushing the amount of aid this year towards $100 billion. This is enough
- [The Home Fronts during the Russo-Ukrainian War - update 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/19/the-home-fronts-during-the-russo-ukrainian-war-update-2/) - Second update to this blog post. The big earthshaking change is that the U.S. Congress has passed a $40.1 billion aid bill for Ukraine. That along with the previously $13.6 billion aid bill passed in March adds up to $53.7 billion from the U.S. alone to Ukraine. One might be able to add to that
- [The Home Fronts during the Russo-Ukrainian War - update 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/16/the-home-fronts-during-the-russo-ukrainian-war-update-1/) - Even though the war is not going well for Russia right now, that might change. Russia still has more than three times the manpower and almost ten times the economy that Ukraine does. Just to compare: Russia
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 85 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/19/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-85-ground-actions/) - Not much new to report today and no major movements of the front line. I will put any changes/updates since my last post in italics. A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map. The Ukrainian forces in Mariupol surrendered on 17 May after being under siege for 77 days. They put
- [Intelligence Failures](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/18/intelligence-failures/) - Someone just forwarded me this article: US intelligence community launches review following Ukraine and Afghanistan intel failings 'Bout time. They should back date it to cover the 1991 Gulf War predictions and the failure in the late 1980s to predict the fall of the Soviet Union; oh, and maybe those weapons of mass destruction in Iraq
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 84 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/18/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-84-ground-actions/) - Well, the Ukrainian forces in Mariupol surrendered after being under siege for 77 days. They put up a hell of a fight. Hopefully arrangements have been made for them to be exchanged as part of a prisoner swap. Russia has now fully taken its first major city. Ukraine appears to be continuing its advance from
- [Dupuy used for Click Bait](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/19/dupuy-used-for-click-bait/) - This was also just sent to me: The Deadliest Weapon of all Time. They are using a 1964 report by Trevor Dupuy to create one those little click bait articles. The original report (#4) is here: TDI - The Dupuy Institute Publications Number 16: That does not look like a medieval crossbow. I would know. I
- [Schedule of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 6](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/21/schedule-of-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-6/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 30 presentations scheduled by 20 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour
- [The One Board Wargame To Rule Them All](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2019/03/04/the-one-board-wargame-to-rule-them-all/) - [This post was originally published on 22 September 2017.] Even as board gaming appears to be enjoying a resurgence in the age of ubiquitous computer gaming, it appears, sadly, that table-top wargaming continues its long, slow decline in popularity from its 1970s-80s heyday. Pockets of enthusiasm remain however, and there is new advocacy for wargaming
- [Talking Force Ratios Once Again](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/17/talking-force-ratios-once-again/) - I guess we need to talk about force ratios once again. Not sure why. This has been discussed in depth by us. It was discussed in Trevor Dupuy's Understanding War and was discussed in my book War by Numbers. But let me start first with some Clausewitz quotes: In tactics, as in strategy, superiority of
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 83 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/17/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-83-ground-actions/) - Ukraine appears to be continuing its advance from Kharkov to the north and east. They have crossed the Severskii Donets River in one or two places. I do have an extended discussion of a multi-division crossing of this river on 5 July 1943 in my original Kursk book. At some point, I may spin off
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 82 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/16/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-82-ground-actions/) - Ukraine appears to be consolidating its advance from Kharkov. Russian advances towards Barvinkove and Lyman (in the direction of Slovyansk) are not progressing, front is reported as quiet. Ukraine is claiming the Russians have taken heavy losses. Multiple attempts by Russia to build a pontoon bridge at Bilohorivka have failed and with heavy losses. Ukraine has
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 80 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/14/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-80-ground-actions/) - Ukraine appears to be consolidating its advance from Kharkov. Russian advances towards Barvinkove and Lyman (in the direction of Slovyansk) are not progressing rapidly. Ukraine is claiming the Russians have taken heavy losses. Ukraine has withdrawn from Rubizhne. Russia is making progress to the north and south of Sievierodonetsk and are now on the outskirts
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 79 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/13/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-79-ground-actions/) - Fighting continues. Ukraine appears to be consolidating its advance from Kharkov. Russian advances towards Barvinkove and Lyman (in the direction of Slovyansk) are not progressing rapidly. Ukraine is claiming the Russians have taken heavy losses. Ukraine has withdrawn from Rubizhne. Russia is making progress to the north and south of Sievierodonetsk and are now on
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 78 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/12/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-78-ground-actions/) - Things have heated up. Continued Ukrainian advances from Kharkov, Russian advances towards Lyman and Barvinkove and heavier fighting around Kherson. Multiple attempts by Russia to build a pontoon bridge at Bilohorivka have failed. A 10 May interview by Ukrainian President Zelensky told people not to expect daily or weekly victories. Reading between the lines, that
- [The Attack on Kharkov - part 5 of the First Phase of the War discussion](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/11/the-attack-on-kharkov-part-5-of-the-first-phase-of-the-war-discussion/) - This is the fifth in a series of extended posts examining the First Phase of this war. The first post is here: The Assault on Kiev – part 1 of the discussion on the First Phase of the War | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Second post is here: The Assault on Kherson – part 2 of
- [The Home Fronts during the Russo-Ukranian War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/04/the-home-fronts-during-the-russo-ukranian-war/) - This is a discussion cut from my daily posting on the Russo-Ukrainian War. The latest video from Moscow: (20+) Facebook Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 14,900 since the war began. See: OVD-info. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. There have been only limited protests in the last few weeks. Exchange
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 77 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/11/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-77-ground-actions/) - Things are starting to heat up. Continued Ukrainian advances from Kharkov, Russian advances towards Lyman and Barvinkove and heavier fighting around Kherson. Week eleven of the war. Clear weather until Saturday, then rain off and on for the next week. The major action continues to be a Ukrainian offensive to the north and east of Kharkov that
- [Time of Collect $$$ for HAAC](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/10/time-of-collect-for-haac/) - The Historical Analysis Annual Conferences (HAAC) are intended to be self-supporting and to have a life and longevity unrelated to me or The Dupuy Institute. It is my intention to establish an elected board of 7 to 9 members at the end of first conference in 27-29 September to run the future conferences. This is
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 76 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/10/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-76/) - Things remain relatively quiet. Debating if I need to continue to post every day. Week eleven of the war. Clear weather until Friday, then rain off and on for the next week. The major action for the last few days appears to be a limited Ukrainian offensive to the north and east of Kharkov that took
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 75 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/09/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-75-ground-actions/) - Today is May 9, Victory Day for the Soviet Union. Nothing happened besides parades and speeches. No declaration of war, no new offensive, no mobilization, no peace overtures, nothing really, other than speeches about the troops in Ukraine are "fighting for the motherland." Week eleven of the war. Clear weather until Friday, then five or
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 73 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/07/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-73-ground-actions/) - Week eleven of the war. It rained on Wednesday. Clear weather until Monday. Waiting now for the war resume in earnest as I have a hard time believing that what we saw week before last was the Russian spring offensive. The major action for the last few days appears to be a limited Ukrainian offensive
- [1420 - fifth posting](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/06/1420-fifth-posting/) - Four times in the past I have posted links to the 1420 Youtube.com interviews. Youtube.com is still available for Russians, and these videos are street interviews of a variety of people, mostly around Moscow. The interviewees are not scientifically selected nor representative, but I find them interesting. This one is about "Are you ready to
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 72 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/06/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-72-ground-actions/) - Week eleven of the war. It rained on Wednesday. Clear weather until Monday. Waiting now for the war resume in earnest as I have a hard time believing that what we saw last week was the Russian spring offensive. The major action for the last few days appears to be a limited Ukrainian offensive to
- [An Independent Effort to Use the QJM to Analyze the War in Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/05/an-independent-effort-to-use-the-qjm-to-analyze-the-war-in-ukraine/) - The QJM is the old version of Trevor Dupuy's Quantified Judgment Model, as described in his book Numbers, Predictions and War. The Dupuy Institute currently uses and markets the TNDM (Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model), which is Trevor Dupuy's updated version of the model. We have recently had various discussions about staffing The Dupuy Institute so as
- [The Russo-Ukranian War of 2022 - Day 71 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/05/the-russo-ukranian-war-of-2022-day-71-ground-actions/) - Week eleven of the war. It rained yesterday. Clear weather until Monday, then more rain. Waiting now for the war resume in earnest as I have a hard time believing that what we saw last week was the Russian spring offensive. The major action for the last few days appears to be a limited Ukrainian
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 70 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/04/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-70-ground-actions/) - Week ten of the war. It is supposed to rain today but weather is mostly clear for the next week. Waiting now for when the war resumes in earnest. Don’t see any major offensives yet. The major action for the last few days appears to be a limited Ukrainian offensive to the north of Kharkov that
- [So, How Long A War?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/14/so-how-long-a-war/) - So, how long will this war last? It has already gone on for more than seven weeks. There are no ongoing negotiations, with the president of Russia saying that peace talks are at a "dead end." It is clear this is going to drag on for weeks, or months, or even years. Which is it?
- [The Advance in the Northeast - part 4 of the First Phase of the War discussion](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/05/the-advance-in-the-northeast-part-4-of-the-first-phase-of-the-war-discussion/) - This is the fourth in a series of extended posts examining the First Phase of this war. The first post is here: The Assault on Kiev – part 1 of the discussion on the First Phase of the War | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Second post is here: The Assault on Kherson – part 2
- [Losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/04/losses-during-the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022/) - This is a discussion cut from my daily posting on the Russo-Ukrainian War. Casualties: Ukraine admitted on 29 April that they have suffered “serious losses” in battles. We take that claim at face value. They also claim that Russian losses are “colossal.” That claim has not been confirmed. The UN is reporting on 3 May at least
- [Outside Support for Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/04/outside-support-for-ukraine/) - This is a discussion cut from my daily posting on the Russo-Ukrainian War. Outside support for Ukraine is considerable. According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles (or 1,400 since February according to a more recent source). The U.S. has promised an
- [Transnistria and the invasion of Odessa](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/04/transnistria-and-the-invasion-of-odessa/) - This is a discussion cut from my daily posting on the Russo-Ukrainian War. Do not think Odessa is in danger anymore from amphibious invasion. The range of a Ukrainian manufactured Neptune missile is 175 miles (280 kilometers). The distance from Odessa to Sevastopol is 188 miles (which is reported to have militarized dolphin pens). The
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 69 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/03/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-69-ground-actions/) - Week ten of the war. It does appear that the wettest of weather has passed. Mostly clear weather forecast for the next week. So, waiting now for when the war resumes in earnest. Don’t see any major offensives yet. The major action for the last three days appears to be a limited Ukrainian offensive to
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 68 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/02/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-68-ground-actions/) - Week ten of the war. It does appear that the wettest of weather has passed. Mostly clear weather forecast for the next week. So, waiting now for when the war resumes in earnest. Don’t see any major offensives yet. The major action for the last two days appears to be a limited Ukrainian offensive to
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 66 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/30/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-66-ground-actions/) - Week ten of the war. It does appear that the wettest of weather has passed. Mostly clear weather forecast for the next week. So, waiting now for when the war resumes in earnest. Don’t see any major offensives yet. No towns are reported to have changed hands in the last three days except for two
- [The Attack on Mariupol - part 3 of the First Phase of the War discussion](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/05/03/the-attack-on-mariupol-part-3-of-the-first-phase-of-the-war-discussion/) - This is the third in a series of extended posts examining the First Phase of this war. The first post is here: The Assault on Kiev – part 1 of the discussion on the First Phase of the War | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Second post is here: The Assault on Kherson – part 2
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 65 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/29/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-65-ground-actions/) - Week ten of the war. It does appear that the wettest of weather has passed. Clear weather forecast for the next week. So, waiting now for when the war resumes in earnest. Don’t see any major offensives yet. No towns are reported to have changed hands in the last two days except for two villages
- [The 88th Infantry Division Stole a Cake](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/29/the-88th-infantry-division-stole-a-cake/) - Speaking of war crimes, I spotted this story today: US Army 'returns' cake to Italian woman for 90th birthday. The 88th Infantry Division in Italy in 1944 in one of the units we have studied in some depth. There was a report done on it in 1981. See: 88. Performance of The 88th Infantry Division in
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 64 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/28/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-64-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Week ten of the war. It does appear that the wettest of weather has passed. Clear weather forecast for the next week. So, waiting now for when the war resumes in earnest. A lot of people are announcing that the second phase of
- [The Assault on Kherson - part 2 of the First Phase of the War discussion](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/26/the-assault-on-kherson-part-2-of-the-first-phase-of-the-war-discussion/) - This is the second in a series of extended posts examining the First Phase of this war. The first post is here: The Assault on Kiev – part 1 of the discussion on the First Phase of the War | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) The Fight over Kherson: The other dramatic and threatening advance early in
- [Military Aid to Ukraine as measured by percent of GDP](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/21/aid-to-ukraine-as-measured-by-percent-of-gdp/) - A couple of articles worth looking at. First: Where Military Aid to Ukraine Comes From This was published three hours ago, showing the total aid "pledged" by each country through 27 March. The U.S. certainly leads in that category with 4.77 billion provided. Biden today just added another 800 million in military aid and 500 million
- [How Much is U.S. intelligence helping Ukraine? - part 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/27/how-much-is-u-s-intelligence-helping-ukraine-part-2/) - Posted this article up at the beginning of the month: How Much is U.S. Intelligence helping Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)The article stated that (in bold): "It does appear that Ukraine is getting significant help from the U.S. intelligence assets." A few updates: U.S. gave Ukraine exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs
- [How Much is U.S. Intelligence helping Ukraine?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/02/how-much-is-u-s-intelligence-helping-ukraine/) - The Ukrainians have conducted a helicopter strike using missiles at a fuel depot near Belgorod, inside of Russia. This is a town I have been to a couple of times researching the Battle of Kursk. I don’t recognize the area (1:25): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66XrGQcKnJc. They had previously hit an ammo dump near Krasny Oktyabr around 30 March. See
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 63 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/27/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-63-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Week nine of the war. It does appear that the wettest of weather has passed. Clear weather forecast for the next week. So, waiting now for when the war resumes in earnest. A lot of people are announcing that the second phase of
- [The Assault on Kiev - part 1 of the discussion on the First Phase of the War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/20/the-assault-on-kiev-part-1-of-the-first-phase-of-the-war-discussion/) - I am going to briefly discuss the first phase of this war in the quiet period before second phase begins in earnest (the Battle for the Donbas?). There are major problems with analyzing a war while it is still going on and without access to documents, archives, unit records, interviews of commanders, participants and so
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 62 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/26/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-62-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Week nine of the war. It does appear that the wettest of weather has passed. Two days of rain forecast this next week. So, waiting now for when the war resumes in earnest. A lot of people are announcing that the second phase
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 61 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/25/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-61-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map The blog was down for most of the day Sunday, due to the server being down. So, no Day 60 report was ever created. Week nine of the war. It does appear that the wettest of weather has passed. One day of rain
- [1420 - fourth posting](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/23/1420-fourth-posting/) - I have three times in the past posted links to the 1420 Youtube interviews of Russians. Another one was just posted called "What do Russians think now? Two months after the start." See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38-vNNH30iY I did notice about a week ago there were some news articles here about the 1420 Youtube channel. For example: https://news.yahoo.com/interview-everyday-russians-youtube-viewers-135125021.html
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 59 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/23/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-59-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Week nine of the war. It does appear that the war is quiet for the next week or so. It is raining today and tomorrow. A lot of people are announcing that the second phase of the war has begun, but don’t see any
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 58 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/22/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-58-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Week nine of the war. It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. The U.S. DOD is reporting that 22 BTGs (Battalion Tactical Groups) are refitting north
- [Did Eddie Rickenbacker use a Ghost Writer for his Autobiography?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/06/30/did-eddie-rickenbacker-use-a-ghost-writer-for-his-autobiography/) - I was recently reading Rickenbacker: An Autobiography by top American World War I ace Eddie Rickenbacker. Before Rickenbacker became an ace, he was a successful race car driver, having driven at Indianapolis from 1911-1916. He won a number of races on the circuit (but not Indy) and had a reputation as "fast Eddie." His book
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 57 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/21/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-57-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Week nine of the war. It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. The U.S. DOD is reporting that 22 BTGs (Battalion Tactical Groups) are refitting north
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 56 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/20/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-56-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map The end of week eight of the war. It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. The U.S. DOD is reporting that 22 BTGs (Battalion
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 5](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/18/schedule-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-5/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 29 presentations scheduled by 19 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 55 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/19/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-55-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Week eight of the war. It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. It does appear that the war is quiet for the next week or
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 4](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/05/schedule-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-4/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 27 presentations scheduled by 18 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 54 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/18/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-54-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Week eight of the war. It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. It does appear that the war is quiet for the next week
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 53 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/17/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-53-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Week eight of the war. It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. It does appear that the war is quiet for the next week or
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 52 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/16/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-52-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Week eight of the war. It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. It does appear that the war is quiet for the next week or
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 51 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/15/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-51-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Week eight of the war. It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. It does appear that the war is quiet for the next week or
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 50 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/14/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-50-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Week eight of the war. It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. It does appear that the war is quiet for the next
- [At this point, it looks like Ukraine has been saved](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/13/at-this-point-it-looks-like-ukraine-has-been-saved/) - At this point in time, more than six weeks after the war has begun, it looks like the nation of Ukraine has been saved. More important, it looks like Ukraine, as a single defined nation, has developed into a unified whole. The Russian speaking Kharkov, the second largest city in Ukraine, is united with Kiev
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 49 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/13/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-49-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. It does appear that the war is quiet for the next week or so as Russia repositions.
- [The Russian Decision to Start This War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/12/the-russian-decision-to-start-this-war/) - I was one of the people that did not believe that Russia was actually going to start this war. My blog posts on the subject are here: So Is Russia going to actually attack Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and here: The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – part 1 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) There
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 48 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/12/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-48-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map It appears that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine are secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. It does appear that the war is quiet for the next week or so as Russia repositions.
- [Some initial observations on the Russian Army Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) concept](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/11/some-initial-observations-on-the-russian-army-battalion-tactical-group-btg-concept/) - One of the associates of TDI posted the following 13 posts on our twitter account that are getting attention. Decided to repeat the 13 posts here. It can be seen on twitter at: https://twitter.com/dupuyinstitute/status/1513243631066439691 Some initial observations on the Russian Army Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) concept as implemented in Ukraine: (1) BTGs are simply battalion-sized,
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 47 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/11/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-47-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map It does appear that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine is secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. There are multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities, especially in Bucha to the NW
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 46 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/10/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-46-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map It does appear that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine is secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. There are multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities, especially in Bucha to the NW
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 45 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/09/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-45-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map It does appear that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine is secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. There are multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities, especially in Bucha to the NW
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 44 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/08/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-44-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map It does appear that Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and the northeast part of Ukraine is secure. Of course, Russia can always reintroduce troops later from Russia or Belarus. There are multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities, especially in Bucha to the NW
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 43 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/07/the-russo-ukrainian-war-0f-2022-day-43-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map It does appear that they have completely cleared the area around Chernigov (Chernihiv in Ukrainian). Ukrainian forces have driven all the way to the Russian border to the north and east of Chernigov. They have also reclaimed Konotop and driven back the Russian
- [A story about planning for Desert Storm (1991)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/06/a-story-about-planning-for-desert-storm/) - In an email exchange with retired DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency) analyst, William (Chip) Sayers, he sent me this account. I asked him if we could publish it, as I think it is a wonderfully unfiltered account. He agreed, although pointed out that he would also be covering some of this in his presentation this fall.
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 42 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/06/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-42-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map It does appear that they have completely cleared the area around Chernigov (Chernihiv in Ukrainian). Ukrainian forces have driven all the way to the Russian border to the north and east of Chernigov. They have also reclaimed Konotop and driven back the Russian
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 41 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/05/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-41-ground-war/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Probably the biggest news of the last few days is that Ukraine has managed to clear the entire area to the west and northwest of Kiev, effectively securing Kiev. There are also multiple reports of heavy civilian casualties and atrocities. I gather Russia
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 40 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/04/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-40-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Probably the biggest news of the last few days is that Ukraine has managed to clear the entire area to the west and northwest of Kiev, effectively securing Kiev. I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 39 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/03/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-39-ground-actions/) - A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia map Probably the biggest news of the last few days is that Ukraine has managed to clear the entire area to the west and northwest of Kiev, effectively securing Kiev. I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 38 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/02/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-38-ground-actions/) - Probably the biggest news of the day is that Ukraine has managed to clear the entire area to the west and northwest of Kiev over the last three days, effectively securing Kiev. I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 37 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/04/01/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-37-ground-actions/) - I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall very soon (days). There were some Ukrainian counterattacks to the southeast of Zaporizhzhiya on Sunday and around Kharkov. The attacks southeast of Zaporizhzhiya were 63 miles northwest of Mariupol. That is a
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 36 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/31/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-36-ground-actions/) - I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall very soon (days). There were some Ukrainian counterattacks to the southeast of Zaporizhzhiya on Sunday and around Kharkov. The attacks southeast of Zaporizhzhiya were 63 miles northwest of Mariupol. That is a
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 35 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/30/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-35-ground-actions/) - I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall very soon (days). There were some Ukrainian counterattacks to the southeast of Zaporizhzhiya on Sunday and around Kharkov. The attacks southeast of Zaporizhzhiya were 63 miles northwest of Mariupol. That is a
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 34 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/29/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-34-ground-actions/) - I gather Russia now controls the majority of isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall very soon (days). There were some Ukrainian counterattacks to the southeast of Zaporizhzhiya on Sunday and around Kharkov. The attacks southeast of Zaporizhzhiya were 63 miles northwest of Mariupol.
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 3](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/31/schedule-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-3/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 25 presentations scheduled by 16 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour
- [The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers - update 3](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/30/the-costs-hotels-and-call-for-papers-2/) - This post is a repeat of our post on 9 March 2022, slightly updated. The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is scheduled for 27-29 September, 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA, USA. It is being hosted by The Dupuy Institute but is an open conference and we are looking for interested presenters and attendees from all corners of the
- [The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/29/the-first-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-in-tysons-corner-va-update-3/) - This post is a repeat of our post on 8 March 2022. Just a reminder, we are hosting the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September, 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA, USA. It is being hosted by The Dupuy Institute but is an open conference and we are looking for interested presenters and attendees from all corners of
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 33 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/28/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-33-ground-actions/) - Russia has pushed into isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall in the next week or so. There were some Ukrainian counterattacks to the southeast of Zaporizhzhiya yesterday and around Kharkov. The attacks southeast of Zaporizhzhiya were 63 miles northwest of Mariupol. That is a still
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 32 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/27/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-32-ground-actions/) - Russia has pushed into isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall in the next week or so. There were some Ukrainian counterattacks to the southeast of Zaporizhzhiya yesterday and around Kharkov. The attacks southeast of Zaporizhzhiya were 63 miles northwest of Mariupol. That is a
- [1420 - third posting](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/26/1420-third-posting/) - Not really trying to promote a youtube site by some guy in Moscow I don't know, but I do think his street interviews are relatively neutral. Anyhow, two new videos from him: What do Russians think now? 1 month after the start. Have you ever been to Ukraine?Spoiler: The majority of Russians interviewed have not.
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 31 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/26/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-31-ground-actions/) - Russia has pushed into Mariupol. They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall in the next week or so. This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one
- [1420](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/23/1420/) - I do get asked by people about what is the situation inside Russia. Instead of taking my limited view of the situation, I decided the best is to direct you all to a video blog called 1420. This young man in Moscow wanders the streets, asking people questions, and then posting their translated answers on
- [1420 - second posting](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/25/1420-second-posting/) - Just saw this series of interviews today from 1420. Looks like it was mostly done around St. Petersburg. There are a couple of interesting interviews there: Do Russians feel the sanctions now? Previous post: 1420 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 30 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/25/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-30-ground-actions/) - Russia has pushed into Mariupol. They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall in the next week or so. This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one
- [RAW](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/24/raw/) - For those interested, Oxxxymiron's Russians Against War (RAW) concert in London is on now. They are trying to raise $1,000,000 for "Help for Ukrainian Refugees." The Youtube link is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgbA6RWlSEI
- [Chinese Economy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2017/02/17/chinese-economy/) - Economic slowdowns get my attention. Latest article from CNBC at China: China's Economy Doesn't Look so Wonderful Article discusses money reserves and other issues, but the major points are: "She estimates that about $65 to $70 billion leaves the country every month, including more than $80 billion in January alone." "The eventual deflating of China's
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 29 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/24/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-29/) - Russia has pushed into Mariupol. They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall in the next week or so. This does appear to be the first of several “sieges” in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one
- [Russian casualties?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/24/russian-casualties/) - This is a follow-up post to my post from Tuesday morning: So, have 9,861 Russians really been killed in Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) We currently have four casualty reports coming out claiming extremely high casualties for the Russian Army in Ukraine. They are: The briefing posting on 22 March in Komsomolskaya Pravda that
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 28 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/23/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-28-ground-actions/) - Russia has pushed into Mariupol. They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall in the next week or so. This does appear to be the first of several "sieges" in the campaign. Is this the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one
- [So, have 9,861 Russians really been killed in Ukraine?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/22/so-have-9861-russians-really-been-killed-in-ukraine/) - Yesterday, the Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda published a report that stated "According to the Russian Defense Ministry, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9,861 people killed and 16,153 wounded." According to CNN, the article was published Monday at 12:09 AM Moscow time. At 9:56 PM Moscow time the story was
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 26 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/21/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-26-ground-actions/) - Looks like Russia is pushing into Mariupol. It does look like Ukraine is pushing back around Kiev and Mykolaiv. Interesting video of the fighting from a helmet cam (1:42): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cT4-WC23pto I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).They have
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 27 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/22/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-27-ground-actions/) - Looks like Russia is pushing into Mariupol. It does look like Ukraine is pushing back around Kiev and Mykolaiv. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I suspect it is going to fall in
- [So, is this war really stalemated?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/21/so-is-this-war-really-stalemated/) - I do have to ask the question: is this war really stalemated? I see lots of commentators saying so, and even a few articles that the Ukrainians are winning. Yet, the situation on the ground sort of indicates otherwise.First, Mariupol is about to fall. This is/was a city of 400K+ people, If Russia is still
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 25 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/20/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-25-ground-actions/) - Well, looks like Russia is pushing into Mariupol. It does look like Ukraine is pushing back around Kiev and Mykolaiv. Interesting video of the fighting from a helmet cam (1:42): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cT4-WC23pto I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 24 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/19/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-24-ground-actions/) - As usual, no real changes on the ground. Lots of pointless shelling going on. It does look like Ukraine is pushing back around Kiev and Mykolaiv. I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). They have isolated Mariupol. The
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 23 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/18/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-23-ground-actions/) - No real changes on the ground. Lots of pointless shelling going on. I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). The mayor of Melitopol has apparently been detained/abducted and replaced with a Russian appointed one and now released in
- [What the "Z" Really Means](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/17/what-the-z-really-means/) - Nice little 5-minute video that I think nicely explains the letters: See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMh6Ml329VUIt is regionally based.V = KievO = Chernigov and SumyZ in a box = KharkovZ = Crimea and Donetsk It does not explain why they didn't use the Cyrillic alphabet.
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 22 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/17/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-22-ground-actions/) - No real changes on the ground. Lots of pointless shelling going on. I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). The mayor of Melitopol has apparently been detained/abducted and replaced with a Russian appointed one. They have isolated Mariupol.
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 21 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/16/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-21-ground-actions/) - The slow grind continues but no real changes on the ground. Lots of pointless shelling going on. I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). The mayor of Melitopol has apparently been detained/abducted and replaced with a
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 20 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/15/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-20-ground-actions/) - The slow grind continues but no real changes on the ground. Lots of pointless shelling going on. I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. I have put this blog post on a diet, as it was getting a little long. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and
- [Does Russia have chemical warfare capability?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/15/does-russia-have-chemical-warfare-capability/) - The short answer: Probably not.The long answer: Russia signed the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in 1993. In 1997 the treaty came into force. Russia declared its chemical warfare stocks of 39,967 tons and then began destroying them. This destruction was partially funded and overwatched by Western nations. In late 2017, they destroyed the last of
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 19 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/14/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-19-ground-actions/) - The slow grind continues but no real changes on the ground. I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. There are very few changes today. I will be putting this blog post on a diet tomorrow, as it is getting a little long. Going to trim out a lot of the details. Russia continues to occupy three
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 18 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/13/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-18-ground-actions/) - The slow grind continues but no real changes on the ground. I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. There are very few changes today. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). The mayor of Melitopol has apparently been detained/abducted and replaced with a Russian appointed
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 16 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/11/the-russo-ukranian-war-of-2022-day-16-ground-actions/) - The slow grind continues but no real changes on the ground. I will put any changes/updates since yesterday's post in italics. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I gather the Russian forces in that area are
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 17 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/12/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-17-ground-actions/) - The slow grind continues but no real changes on the ground. I will put any changes/updates since yesterday’s post in italics. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). The mayor of Melitopol has apparently been detained/abducted. They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1
- [Back To The Future: The Return Of Sieges To Modern Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2018/07/02/back-to-the-future-the-return-of-sieges-to-modern-warfare/) - U.S. Army Major Amos Fox has published a very intriguing analysis in the Association of the U.S. Army’s Institute of Land Warfare Landpower Essay series, titled “The Reemergence of the Siege: An Assessment of Trends in Modern Land Warfare.” Building upon some of his previous work (here and here), Fox makes a case that sieges
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 15 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/10/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-15-ground-actions/) - No real change for like the tenth day in the row. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I gather the Russian forces in
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/10/schedule-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-update-2/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 25 presentations scheduled by 16 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/14/schedule-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-9-september-2022-update-1/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 23 presentations scheduled by 14 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 14 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/09/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-14-ground-actions/) - Not much movement on the ground, but it does look like some serious fights the last couple of days around Mikolaiv and Kharkov. Front line trace is not moving much. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics. No real change for like the ninth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in
- [The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/09/the-costs-hotels-and-call-for-papers/) - The first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is scheduled for 27-29 September, 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA, USA. It is being hosted by The Dupuy Institute but is an open conference and we are looking for interested presenters and attendees from all corners of the historical analysis, operations research, and historical research communities. This is first
- [The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA - update 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/08/the-first-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-in-tysons-corner-va-update-2/) - Just a reminder, we are hosting the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September, 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA, USA. It is being hosted by The Dupuy Institute but is an open conference and we are looking for interested presenters and attendees from all corners of the historical analysis, operations research, and historical research communities. Purpose: To explore
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 13 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/08/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-13-ground-actions/) - Not much movement on the ground, but it does look like some serious fights the last couple of days around Mikolaiv and Kharkov. Front line trace is not moving much. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics. No real change for like the eighth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in
- [Old posts reactivated](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/07/old-posts/) - It does appear that number of our older posts are being tapped. We do have over 1,300 posts on this blog now going back to December 2015. Some of these older posts are getting a lot of attention recently. This includes this perennial favorite, that seems to have been recently quoted in a couple of
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 12 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/07/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-12-ground-actions/) - Again, no major new events today. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics. No real change for like the seventh day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 11 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/06/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-11-ground-actions/) - There is really nothing new today. Not sure if that is because there is nothing new, or because the majority of reporters and analysts have the day off. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics. No real change for like the sixth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and
- [Mapping Russia's Tank Losses](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/06/mapping-russias-tank-losses/) - This youtube video has just been released called "Mapping Russia's Mostly Costly Tank Losses Ukraine War." I found it interesting. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adE5GlQ2Ly4It references our old friend from the Battle of Kursk, Katukov's First Guards Tank Army. See: First Guards Tank Army and new exercises | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and: First Guards Tank Army | Mystics &
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 9 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/04/the-russo-ukrainian-war-2022-day-9-ground-actions/) - There is really nothing surprisingly new today. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics. No real change for like the fourth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 10 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/05/the-russo-ukrainian-war-2022-day-10-ground-actions/) - There is really nothing surprisingly new today. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics. No real change for like the fifth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three
- [Failed Logistics](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/06/failed-logistics/) - This youtube video is worthwhile. We don't spend enough time talking logistics here. It is a 20-minute video. See: The Failed Logistics of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
- [Contested Air Space over Ukraine?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/28/contested-air-space-over-ukraine/) - Well, I just assumed with 500+ Russian jets and only 100 Ukrainian, it was going to be Russian air superiority. It mostly has, but not entirely. Russia has also lost some air assets while it appears that Ukraine has maintained some of theirs. Now, our count before the war gave Russia some 1,377 modern combat
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 8 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/03/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-8-ground-actions/) - No real change for like the third day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). There was a sense that Russia was
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 7 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/02/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-7-ground-actions/) - Well, nothing much changing on the ground yet. Some shelling of Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649). The big story is what appears to be the coming major attacks on Kiev
- [International Pariah](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/01/international-pariah/) - It appears that Putin, the current county of Russia, Russian businesses and businessmen, and Russian sports associations have become international pariahs. This is a push-back we have not seen really seen before for a country this large. Even some in the United States were conducting business with Nazi Germany up until the start of World
- [Little Water](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/02/little-water/) - For those looking for a change, below are some Ukrainian Vodka brands: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khlibnyi_Dar Khortytsia (company) - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nemiroff And: https://expatukraine.com/ukrainian-vodka/ The Best Ukrainian Vodka | Food For Net
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 6 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/03/01/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-6-ground-actions/) - Nothing much changing on the ground yet. Russia continues to occupy two smaller cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928) and Melitopol (pop. 150,768); and have taken Kherson (pop. 283,649). The big story is what appears to be the coming major attacks on Kiev and Kharkov. These are going to start either today or tomorrow or the day
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 5 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/28/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-5-ground-actions/) - Surprisingly little new to report. This is either the quiet before the storm or Russia's offensive has truly stalled almost everywhere. Russia appears to occupy two smaller cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928) and Melitopol (pop. 150,768). This was done by an amphibious operation to take Beryansk, and I gather they have advanced from there to Melitopol.
- [Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 13](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/07/coronavirus-mortality-rates-updates-13/) - My plan for now is to keep updating this post every Tuesday. The number of cases continue to increase dramatically, as sadly are the number of deaths, and of significance, so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1% and keep rising.
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/08/coronavirus-is-the-dc-area-update-1/) - As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as
- [Some National Coronavirus Graphs - update 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/09/some-national-coronavirus-graphs-update-1/) - Just an update on my post last week on this subject: Here is the graph for the number of cases in South Korea (as of 9:36;11 AM) In comparison, here is the United States, Spain and Italy: In contrast here are three other East Asian nations, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam: And here is China,
- [Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 14](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/14/coronavirus-mortality-rates-update-14/) - My plan for now is to keep updating this post every Tuesday. This may be my second to last update as these do take some time. It is the especially annoying with the slow creaky internet that has developed from everyone "working" at home. My time may be better spent on defense affairs and analysis
- [Testing on the USS Theodore Roosevelt](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/14/testing-on-the-uss-theodore-roosevelt/) - There were 4,800 crew on the ship. Of those, 92 percent were tested, with 550 positive and 3,673 negative as of 11 April. On 12 April it was reported that 585 crew members had tested positive. So far there has been one death (April 13). This would be an infection rate of around 12% to
- [Reality sets in for Russia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/15/reality-sets-in-for-russia/) - Sorry, but another coronavirus post. This is a follow-up to our post a month ago: https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/03/17/what-about-the-coronavirus-and-russia/ Needless to way, with over 21,000 cases now reported in Russia and over 170 deaths (which are probably under-reported), Russia is very much part of the pandemic now. Chart of number of cases as of 4/14/20: A couple of related
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/15/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-2/) - As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as
- [Some National Coronavirus Graphs - update 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/16/some-national-coronavirus-graphs-update-2/) - Updating my posts for the last two weeks. This basically addresses the question of when is the virus mitigated, or even better when it is contained, and eventually when should restrictions be relaxed. So we look at South Korea compared to the three worst plagued countries in the world. We then look at three other
- [U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt correction](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/18/u-s-s-theodore-roosevelt-correction/) - https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/14/testing-on-the-uss-theodore-roosevelt/ I stated in the previous post on this subject that "They probably picked up the virus around 9 March while making a port call in Da Nang, Vietnam." According to this article, this may not be the case: https://news.yahoo.com/navy-believes-delivery-flights-not-205814720.html According to this article, they might have picked up the virus due to delivery flights
- [Coronavius Mortality Rates update 15](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/21/coronavius-mortality-rates-update-15/) - This is my last update of this post for a while. My first post on Mortality Rates was on 27 February. At that time there was 4,051 cases of Coronavirus outside of China and only 66 deaths outside of China. It is here: https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/02/27/mortality-rates-of-the-coronavirus-by-country/ I am looking at shifting away from Coronavirus posts and focusing
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 3](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/22/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-3/) - As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website
- [Some National Coronavirus Graphs - update 3](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/23/some-national-coronavirus-graphs-update-3/) - I may continue updating this post for a while. This basically addresses the question of when is the virus mitigated, or even better when it is contained, and eventually when should restrictions be relaxed. So we look at South Korea compared to the three worst plagued countries in the world. We then look at three
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 4](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/04/29/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-4/) - As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 5](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/05/06/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-5/) - As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website
- [Coronavirus and the big seven](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/05/07/coronavirus-and-the-big-seven/) - Not quite done blogging about the Coronavirus yet, as it is not quite done with us...yet. The seven countries with the highest number of reported cases is the United States and six European Countries. These account for five of the ten richest countries in the world. They are shown below in order of number of
- [Some National Coronavirus Graphs - update 4](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/05/08/some-national-coronavirus-graphs-update-4/) - This updated post addresses the question of when is the virus mitigated, or even better when it is contained, and eventually when should restrictions be relaxed. So we look at South Korea compared to the seven worst plagued countries in the world (see post from yesterday on the "big seven"). We then look at three
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 6](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/05/13/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-6/) - As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 7](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/05/20/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-7/) - As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 8](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/05/27/coronoavisus-in-the-dc-area-update-8/) - As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining these updates on Wednesdays for a while. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 9](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/06/03/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-9/) - Still trying to keep this as a weekly update, although I have been a little busy lately. As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. I will be maintaining
- [Coronavirus and the Big Nine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/06/04/coronavirus-and-the-big-nine/) - I am trying to get out of the business of blogging about the coronavirus and move onto other subjects...but, it is kind of hard to ignore. The nine countries with the highest number of reported cases is the United States, six European Countries, Brazil and India. These account for seven of the ten richest countries
- [Some National Coronavirus Graphs - update 5](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/06/05/some-national-coronavirus-graphs-update-5/) - This updated post addresses the question of when is the virus mitigated, or even better when it is contained, and eventually when should restrictions be relaxed. So we look at South Korea compared to the nine worst plagued countries in the world (see post from yesterday on the “big nine”). We then look at three
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 10](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/06/10/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-10/) - Still maintain weekly updates of this coronavirus post. The last two weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,000 new cases a week to around 7,000 new cases two weeks ago to near 5,000 cases this last week. Wondering, with all the protests, if that decline will
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 11](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/06/17/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-11/) - Just doing my weekly update of this coronavirus post. The last three weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,000 new cases a week to around 7,000 new cases three weeks ago to near 5,000 cases two weeks ago and down near 3,000 new cases over this
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 12](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/06/24/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-12/) - One more weekly update of this coronavirus post. The last four weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week to around 7,000 new cases four weeks ago to near 5,000 cases three weeks ago and down near 3,000 new cases two weeks ago.,
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 13](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/07/01/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-13/) - Another weekly update of this coronavirus post. The last four weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500 new cases a week to near 5,400 new cases four weeks ago to near 3,200 cases three weeks ago and down near 2,600 new cases two weeks ago. Over
- [Some Selected Mortality Rates by Country for the Coronavirus](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/07/03/some-selected-mortality-rates-by-country-for-the-coronavirus/) - The virus has been going on for a while, and a number of countries have been hard hit but are now successful in containing it, some contained it early on and were never hard hit, some have been less successful, and some really have not contained the virus. Let us look at some mortality rates
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 14](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/07/08/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-14/) - Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. The number of reported cases in the DC area has been in steady decline for over a month, while many other areas of the United States it has been growing. The last four weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 15](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/07/15/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-15/) - Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. The number of reported cases in the DC area has been in steady decline for over a month, while many other areas of the United States it has been growing. The last month has been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,500
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 16](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/07/22/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-16/) - Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. Got a late start on it today as I was absorbed in creating tables for a book I am working on. The number of reported cases in the DC area has been in steady decline for over a month, while many other areas of the United States it
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 17](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/07/29/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-17/) - Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. Not good news, the number of cases has increased by 4,077 new cases this last week. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 202 cases yesterday. The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 18](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/08/05/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-18/) - Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. The number of cases has finally started to decrease again, after increasing over the last month. This week there were 3,672 new cases. It was 4,077 new cases last week. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 190 cases yesterday. The number of reported
- [Coronavirus in Australia vice the U.S.](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/08/06/coronavirus-in-australia-vice-the-u-s/) - Still not done blogging about the coronavirus (sorry). Australia has kind of been one of the success stories, while the United States has not. Here is the daily counts of U.S. reported infections: One will note after the initial sudden rise in cases (driven by the NE U.S.) there was a general decline and now
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 19](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/08/12/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-19/) - Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased to 3,963 new cases. Last week week there were 3,672 new cases. It was 4,077 new cases two weeks ago. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 412 new cases yesterday. The number of reported cases in the DC
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 20](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/08/19/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-20/) - Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased by 3,568 new cases. Last week week there were 3,963 new cases. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 401 new cases yesterday. The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a
- [The Situation with Belarus](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/08/24/the-situation-with-belarus/) - The protests have been going on in Belarus for two weeks now. On Sunday, they had something like 200,000 protesters in the street. Still, one can be too hasty in reaching a conclusion. For example, the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine in 2013-14 lasted for three months (21 November 2013 - 23 February 2014) and
- [Coronavirus and Government Turnover](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/08/25/coronavirus-and-government-turnover/) - Some countries have done a better job than others in addressing and dealing with the coronavirus. This is reflected in the number of cases per capita and the number of deaths per capita, if the statistics by country are reliable and reported in the same manner. Dealing with the coronavirus also has a huge economic
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 21](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/08/26/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-21/) - Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased by 3,044 new cases. Last week week there were 3,568 new cases. So things are slowly improving. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 876 new cases yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks. The number of reported
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 22](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/09/02/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-22/) - Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased by 3,828 new cases. Last week week there were 3,044 new cases. This is definitely heading in the wrong direction. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 975 new cases yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 23](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/09/09/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-23/) - Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased by 3,132 new cases. Last week week there were 3,828 new cases. This is still not great. In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,369 new cases yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 24](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/09/16/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-24/) - Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 3,317 new cases. Last week week there were 3,132 new cases. This is not great. In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,229 new cases for the day yesterday. They are
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 25](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/09/23/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-25/) - Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 3,387 new cases. Last week week there were 3,317 new cases. There does seem to be a pattern in that the spread of the virus has been reduced from when we were seeing 9,000 or more cases a
- [Sweden versus the World](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/09/27/sweden-versus-the-world/) - Sweden is unique in that they were one of the few countries in the Western World that did not shut down to try to contain the coronavirus. Let's briefly take a look and see how that worked: Country...Population...Cases.....Deaths....Infection Rate...Death Rate...Morality Rate Sweden....10.3.............90,923.......5,880.....0.0088..............0.00057............6.5% Denmark....5.8.............13,627..........270.....0.0023..............0.00005............2.0% Norway......5.4.............26,637..........649.....0.0048..............0.00012............2.4% . U.S.........328.2.........7,081,505...204,527....0.0216..............0.00062.............2.9% UK...........67.9............431,824.....42,060.....0.0064..............0.00062.............9.7% Italy.........60.3.............308,104....35,818.....0.0051..............0.00059...........11.6% This data is from the Johns
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 26](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/09/30/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-26/) - Weekly update number 26 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post now for half a year. As it is "close to home," I sort of feel a need to keep doing it. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 3,111 new cases. Last week there
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 27](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/07/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-27/) - Weekly update number 27 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post for over half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by only 2,592 new cases. Last week
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 28](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/14/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-28/) - Weekly update number 28 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post for over half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 3,784 new cases. Last week there
- [Excess Deaths and Coronavirus](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/15/excess-deaths-and-coronavirus/) - One of the issues with evaluating the impact of Coronavirus is that determining the cause of death is at best uncertain, and varies depending on who is counting and what the rules are. The example I have used several times is the difference between Belgium (pop. 11.5 million), which has 181,511 reported cases and 10,278
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 29](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/21/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-29/) - Weekly update number 29 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post for over half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it. Not sure how many people are following this, but I kind of want to know. This
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 30](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/28/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-30/) - Weekly update number 30 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 4,326 new cases. Last week there were 4,012 new cases. So it continues to rise. So last month we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 31](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/04/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-31/) - Weekly update number 31 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 4,256 new cases. Last week there were 4,326 new cases. Over a month ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. In contrast,
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 32](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/11/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-32/) - Weekly update number 32 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 7,348 new cases. Last week there were 4,256 new cases. Over a month ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. This is
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 33](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/18/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-33/) - Weekly update number 33 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 8,625 new cases. Last week there were 7,348 new cases and the week before 4,256 new cases. Around two months ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 34](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/25/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-34/) - Weekly update number 34 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 11,293 new cases. This is the largest weekly increase I have seen since I started tracking this for the DC area. Last week there were 8,625 new cases, the week before there were 7,348
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 35](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/02/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-35/) - Weekly update number 35 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 10,892 new cases. This is lower than last week, but it is still very high. Last week there were 11,293 new cases, the week before that 8,625 new cases, the week before that there
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 36](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/09/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-36/) - Weekly update number 36 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 15,790 new cases. This is highest we have seen for this area so far. Last week there were 10,892 new cases, the week before 11,293 new cases, and five weeks ago there were only
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 37](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/16/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-37/) - Weekly update number 37 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 15,323 new cases. Last week there were 15,790 new cases, the week before there were 10,892 new cases and six weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. This has slide out of control and we are still
- [Excess Mortality](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/22/excess-mortality/) - The decision as to whether someone is ruled to have died of the coronavirus or other natural causes is sometimes a judgment call. I have discussed before that Belgium records almost as many deaths as Germany does, yet has reported less cases then Germany has. Many people have attributed these differences to how they choose
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 38](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/23/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-38/) - Weekly update number 38 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to update my picture to something very current. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 12,087 new cases. While this is still very high, it is an improvement. Last week there were 15,323 new cases, the week before that 15,790 new cases, the
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 39](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/30/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-39/) - Weekly update number 39 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 16,418 new cases. This is worse, but the statistics may be distorted because of the holidays. Last week it improved to be at 12,087 cases, as the week
- [Excess Mortality in Russia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/01/excess-mortality-in-russia/) - Just saw some statistics on excess mortality in Russia. Apparently it is 230,000 people for 2020, with it being estimated by one expert that 81% are from Coronavirus. 81% of 230,000 is 186,300. See: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/28/russias-mortality-hit-16-year-high-in-november-official-data-says-a72505 The excess deaths graph in this chart is worth looking at, as it compares 2020 with 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and
- [The lockdowns from Coronavirus are over in 6 months?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/04/the-lockdowns-from-coronavirus-are-over-in-6-months/) - We now have two working vaccines in America and are starting to distribute. The goal was to inoculate 20 million by the end of 2020 and then 30 million more per month for subsequent months. We fell short of the first goal (only inoculated around 2 million), but hopefully we are on track to inoculate
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 40](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/06/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-40/) - Sorry for the late posting today, but was a little distracted by events in DC. They were not always socially distancing. Weekly update number 40 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 16,305 new cases. Last week it was
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 41](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/13/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-41/) - Amid all the other drama in D.C, we are also setting new national records this last week for the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus. The same with the D.C. area. This is weekly update number 41 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture. This
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 42](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/20/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-42/) - Inauguration of a new president today in D.C. Meanwhile the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus continue to rise nationally, although the rate of has declined. This is weekly update number 42 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 43](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/27/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-43/) - The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined nationally. This is weekly update number 43 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 16,058 new cases. Last week it was 18,934 new cases. Twelve weeks ago there were
- [Coronavirus - One year later](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/29/coronavirus-one-year-later/) - On 27 January 2020 I made my first post on the Coronavirus. It was appropriately titled: Plague? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) The above photo was the one I used for that post a year ago. A few quotes from that post: "This is tragic but the worse may yet to come. The human toll
- [The lockdowns from Coronavirus are over in 6 months? - update 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/02/the-lockdowns-from-coronavirus-are-over-in-6-months-update-1/) - Update to this post: The lockdowns from Coronavirus are over in 6 months? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) The original goal was to inoculate 20 million people by the end of 2020 and then 30 million more per month for subsequent months. According to one of the trackers I am watching (Bloomberg), as of 1
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 44](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/03/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-44/) - The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined but is still very high. This is weekly update number 44 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 11,498 new cases. Last week it was 16,058 new cases and the week before it was 18,934 new cases. Thirteen
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 45](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/10/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-45/) - The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined but is still very high. This is weekly update number 45 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 10,871. There were 11,498 new cases last week. Three weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Fourteen weeks ago there
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 46](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/17/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-46/) - Well, in general the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined and seems to be in continual decline: locally, in the United States, and internationally. Still, it is high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 46 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 47](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/24/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-47/) - Well, in general the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has continued at a lower rate but we do not see a continual decline everywhere. It did decline locally, but not for all of the United States. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 47 on
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 48](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/03/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-48/) - Well, in general the number of cases from coronavirus has continued at a lower rate but we do not see a continual decline everywhere. It did decline locally, but not for all of the United States. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 48 on the coronavirus
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 49](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/10/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-49/) - In general the number of cases from coronavirus remains the same as it was last week. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 49 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 5,774 new cases. There were 5,255 new cases last
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 50](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/17/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-50/) - In general the number of cases from coronavirus remains the same as it was last week. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 50 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 5,549 new cases. There were 5,774 new cases last
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 51](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/24/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-51/) - In general the number of cases from coronavirus remains the same as it was last week. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 51 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 4,811 new cases. There were 5,549 new cases last
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 52](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/31/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-52/) - Well, I have been providing updates for the DC area for a year now. I originally started tracking and discussing the virus back in January 2020. And then, as everyone else finally picked up that this was going to be a problem and started reporting on it, I decided in April to focus on local
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 53](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/07/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-53/) - The number of cases from coronavirus is less than it was last week. This is weekly update number 53 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased to 5,615 new cases. There were 6,914 new cases last week. Eleven weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Twenty-two weeks
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 54](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/14/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-54/) - This is weekly update number 54 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased to 6,734 new cases. There were 5,615 new cases last week. Twelve weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 55](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/21/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-55/) - This is weekly update number 55 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased to 4,753 new cases. There were 6,734 new cases last week. Thirteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million),
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 56](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/28/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-56/) - This is weekly update number 56 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased ever so slightly to 4,620 new cases. There were 4,753 new cases last week. Fourteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease.
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 57](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/05/05/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-57/) - This is weekly update number 57 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased to 3,676 new cases. There were 4,620 new cases last week. Fifteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million),
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 58](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/05/12/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-58/) - This is weekly update number 58 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased to only 1,981 new cases. This lower than it was forty-five weeks ago. There were 3,676 new cases last week. Sixteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.Almost all of Europe is still
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 59](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/05/19/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-59/) - This is weekly update number 59 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased slightly to 2,015 new cases. Last week it was lower than it was forty-six weeks ago. There were 1,981 new cases last week and 3,676 new cases the week before. Seventeen weeks ago
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 60](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/05/26/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-60/) - This is weekly update number 60 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) declined to 1,076 new cases. Last week it was 2,015 new cases (revised calculation). Eighteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.Europe seems to be slowly bring the spread of the virus under control.
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 61](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/02/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-61/) - This is weekly update number 61 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) declined to 916 new cases. Last week it was 1,076 new cases. Nineteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.Europe seems to be slowly bringing the spread of the virus under control. Italy (pop.
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 62](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/09/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-62/) - This is weekly update number 62 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) declined to 477 new cases over the week. Last week it was 916 new cases. Twenty weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.Europe also seems to be slowly bringing the virus under control. Italy
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 63](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/16/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-63/) - This is weekly update number 63 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) slightly declined to 461 new cases over the week. Last week it was 477 new cases. Twenty-one weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.Europe also seems to be slowly bringing the virus under control.
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 64](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/23/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-64/) - This is weekly update number 64 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) slightly declined to 445 new cases over the week. Last week it was 461 new cases. Twenty-two weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.Europe also seems to be slowly bringing the virus under control.
- [Coronavirus in Russia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/28/coronavirus-in-russia/) - I know some people who are in Moscow right now. Their observations are that:1. No one is wearing masks. 2. They are still congregating like normal. 3. Even though the signs at the subway are saying they should wear masks, no one is wearing masks. 4. But don’t take my word for this: here is
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 65](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/30/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-65/) - This is weekly update number 65 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) slightly declined to 439 new cases over the week. Last week it was 455 new cases. Twenty-three weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.Europe also seems to be slowly bringing the virus under control.
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 66](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/07/07/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-66/) - This is weekly update number 66 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) slightly increased to 446 new cases over the week. Last week it was 439 new cases. Twenty-four weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.Parts of Europe seem to be bringing the virus under control,
- [Comparative Mortality Rates from Coronavirus by Nation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/07/07/comparative-mortality-rates-from-coronavirus-by-nation/) - Split off the material on mortality rates into a separate blog post. As is already known, countries do not report or catch every case of Coronavirus. It appears in the case of the United States, the actual number of cases is 3 to 4 times higher than what is reported. For other countries (like Russia),
- [Excess Deaths in various countries](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/07/14/excess-deaths-in-various-countries/) - I am trying to get away from posting about the Coronavirus and spend my time talking about things like Afghanistan and insurgencies, but right now the Johns Hopkins Covid tracker is not opening, so I can't do my weekly update. May have to wait until tomorrow to do that. So instead, let me point our
- [Excess Deaths in China](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/07/15/excess-deaths-in-china/) - Still can't get to the Johns Hopkins site to do my weekly update. Not sure why.In the meantime, let me briefly address the issue of excess deaths in China, as that was not discussed in the Economist article. An article of interest: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-deaths-china-covid-outbreak.html Also see: https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/372/bmj.n415.full.pdf Main points: This only looked at 1 January to 31
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 67](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/07/16/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-67/) - Like the Coronavirus, this weekly blog post never seems to end. It was delayed two days this week because of clunky internet connection issues with the Johns Hopkins site. Probably a limitation at my end. This is weekly update number 67 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - weekly update 68](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/07/21/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-weekly-update-68/) - This is really only a five-day update, as I was delayed two days last week because of clunky internet connection issues with the Johns Hopkins site. This is weekly update number 68 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased to 940 new cases over the shortened
- [Coronavirus in the DC area - update 69](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/08/05/coronavirus-in-the-dc-area-update-69/) - This is update number 69 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Missed doing one last week and this one is a day late. So this one covers 15 days. I am probably going to quit doing this on a weekly basis, unless there is demand for it. Instead update it a couple of times
- [Coronavirus Mortality Rates in the U.S. ?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/12/23/coronavirus-mortality-rates-in-the-u-s/) - I have not posted for a while on the Coronavirus. I noticed on my twitter that people have posted the following stats on COVID from the CDC (Center for Disease Control):Mortality Rates:Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100KVaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100KBoosted: 0.1 deaths per 100KI went to their websites and tried to find the stats from
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 4 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/27/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-4-ground-actions/) - The focus here remains on the ground actions. There is not much new here to report. What I am interested in is what ground that Russia is going to take and what ground are they going to hold. We are looking six major areas of operations right now. 1. Kiev 2. Odessa 3. Kharkov 4.
- [The Fight at Antonov/Hostomel Air Base](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/27/the-fight-at-antanov-hostomel-air-base/) - Several videos/posts that help to tell the story there:1. Matthew Chance of CNN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b40r8RX5MoE 2. Helicopter attack: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_ZhCfweTRI 3. The Sun Report: https://www.the-sun.com/news/4768049/ukraine-russia-news-kyiv-airport-capture/ 4. Other blog reports: https://coffeeordie.com/ukrainian-retake-airport/ and https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/02/pictures-in-battle-for-hostomel-ukraine-drove-back-russias-attack-helicopters-and-elite-paratroopers/ 5. Fighting in Ivankov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q3nvXdoInk6. Recent CNN report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEczZqp4JUI 7. Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 3 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/26/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-3-ground-actions/) - My focus here is on the ground actions. What I am interested in is what ground that Russia is going to take and what ground are they going to hold. Right now, this attack looks pretty unrestrained, but who knows what are Putin actual objectives or at what point he will decide he has done
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - Day 2 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/25/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-day-2-ground-actions/) - I changed the title of my previous post to "Day 1." Again, my focus here is on the ground actions. What I am interested in is what ground are they going to take and what ground are they going to hold. Right now, this attack looks pretty unrestrained, but who knows what are Putin actual
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - day 1 (ground actions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/24/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-part-8-ground-actions/) - Well, I did not think that Russia would actually take a step this far, but they did. I may discuss all the implications of that later. Right now my focus is on what ground actions they are taking. Is this a limited and defined operation or are they looking for large scale occupation of Ukrainian
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - part 7 (Putin's speech)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/21/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-part-7-putins-speech/) - Decided to go to the horse's mouth so to say. I do get tired of listening to talking heads. Below is the link to Putin's speech he gave earlier today. It goes on for an hour, but I found it a pretty interesting hour. It has been translated into English by RT. I will provide
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - part 6 (Russian deployment)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/20/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-part-6-russian-deployment/) - The following are reported deployed near Ukraine (according to U.S. statements). See: Roughly 75% of Russian conventional forces deployed against Ukraine: This includes: 1. 120 Battalion Tactical Groups 2. 35 air defense battalions 3. 500 fighter and fighter-bombers So, 500 Russian fighter and fighter-bombers versus Ukraine's 100. They will clearly have air superiority. Makes
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - part 5 (airpower)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/18/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-part-5-airpower/) - There is a big mismatch in airpower between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force can field about 100 modern aircraft, Russia can field over 1,300. Actual count according to Wikipedia is: UkraineMiG-29 - 37 (multirole) Su-24 - 12 (attack) Su-25 - 17 (attack/CAS) Su-27 - 32 (multirole) Total Modern Combat Airplanes: 98 Total multirole
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - part 4 (Russian strengths)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/18/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-part-4-russian-strengths/) - Reporting I saw a couple of hours ago (courtesy of Kaitlan Collins' twitter feed): U.S. ambassador Michael Carpenter: "We assess that Russia probably has massed between 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on January 30. This estimate includes military troops along the border, in Belarus, and in occupied Crimea; Russian
- [Published Obituary for Charles Hawkins](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2019/12/23/published-obituary-for-charles-hawkins/) - It is located here: https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/peninsulaclarion/obituary.aspx?pid=194069013 P.S. A few more links on Chuck Hawkins: https://www.ripcordassociation.com/charles-farring-hawkins-a2-506-c2-506-hhc/ http://company-c--2nd-bn--506th-inf.com/Tribute%20-%20Chuck%20Hawkins.html
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - part 3](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/14/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-part-3/) - There is a big difference between 72 hours and never.See: Russia 'will not capture' any of Ukraine's cities, Ukranian defense minister says Now, I have no inside knowledge or deep understanding of Ukrainian defensive capabilities, so cannot comment on who is right. But U.S. General Miley did suggest that Kiev could fall within 72 hours. That
- [So, what is everyone about to go to war over? - part 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/13/so-what-is-everyone-about-to-go-to-war-over-part-2/) - Saw this article from the Daily Beast this morning. Nothing new here, but reinforces my previous post on this subject: Putin's Army Forces Ukraine's Frontliners Into "Fight or Flight" Hell The closest I have been to this area is the countryside around Belgorod (for obvious reasons). Previous post: So, what is everyone about to go to
- [The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 - part 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/07/the-russo-ukrainian-war-of-2022-part-1/) - My opinion of this potential conflict is summarized in these two posts. So Is Russia going to actually attack Ukraine? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Russian Invasions | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) The first post "Russian Invasions" was made on 5 December 2021. The next one was done on 22 January 2022. Over the last
- [So, what is everyone about to go to war over?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/05/so-what-is-everyone-about-to-go-to-war-over/) - With all the talk of war over Ukraine, it is always useful to look at the area they are actually talking about. I am sure there are more sophisticated analyses of the subject, but I particularly like the videos on www.youtube.com done by "bald and bankrupt." This first one is of the areas near Donetsk,
- [121 SDF killed, hundreds of boys missing](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/04/121-sdf-killed-hundreds-of-boys-missing/) - Latest update on the counts coming from the attack Gweiran prison: See: Watchdog says 100s of boys missing from Kurdish Syria prison The count of casualties from the attack on Gweiran prison by ISIL is 40 Kurdish fighters, 77 prison employees and 4 civilians. SDF says that ISIL lost 374 "detainees and attackers." I assume that
- [The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA - update 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/31/the-first-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haa-27-29-september-2002-in-tysons-corner-va-update-1/) - Last week I did five posts on the upcoming Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). It is the first time we have tried such an effort, and hopefully it will be well enough received that it will become an annual (or even semi-annual) event. I was impressed with the level of support I received last fall
- [So Is Russia going to actually attack Ukraine?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/22/so-is-russia-going-to-actually-attack-ukraine/) - Based upon on the buzz lately in the news and comments by some Western politicians, it appears that is only a question of when, not if, that Russia is going to attack Ukraine. Yet, Russia is saying they are not going to attack. So... who is right?It still doesn't look to me like they are
- [120 SDF Killed !!!](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/31/120-sdf-killed/) - Just saw this news report: US-allied Syria force says it foiled major IS comeback plot They are saying that the prison overrun by the Islamic State in northeastern Syria is now fully under its control. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) say that more than 120 of their fighters and prison workers died in the ten-day
- [Call for Presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 - update 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/02/01/call-for-presentations-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haa-27-29-september-2022/) - Just repeating a post from last week. A conference is only as good as its presenters. --------------- Want to make a call for presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) in Tysons Corner in September 2022. Anyone interested in making what they feel is a useful and relevant contribution should email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call
- [Call for Presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/26/call-for-presentations-for-the-historical-analysis-annual-conference-27-19-september-2022/) - Want to make a call for presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) in Tysons Corner in September 2022. Anyone interested in making what they feel is a useful and relevant contribution should email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me at (703) 289-0007. We do not require any formal paper or publication to support
- [The Revival of ISIL](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/28/the-revival-of-isil/) - I have already discussed events in Syria and Iraq a couple of times. See:In Case We Forget | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) More on the revived ISIL | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)This still does not seem to be getting a lot of attention. The LA TImes (of all people) just put out an article worth
- [The Key to Victory: Machine Learning the Lessons of History](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/27/the-key-to-victory-machine-learning-the-lessons-of-history/) - Robert L. Helmbold has published a new book (his first book) called The Key to Victory: Machine Learning the Lessons of History. Bob Helmbold was one of the senior analysts at CAA (Center of Army Analysis). It was published by MORS (Military Operations Research Society) with the help of Dean Hartley, formerly of Oakridge. This
- [Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/25/schedule-for-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022/) - Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 22 presentations scheduled by 16 speakers, including four or five by me (this could get tiresome). We have slots available for
- [Cost of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/24/cost-of-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac/) - The cost of attendance to the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) on 27-29 September 2022 will be $150 for the entire conference. Dining and hotels are at the expense of the attendees. There will be facilities for virtual attendees and virtual presenters, but the focus of the conference will be in-person presentations and attendees. Cost
- [The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/24/this-first-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-27-29-september-2022-in-tysons-corner-va/) - Announcing the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September, 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA, USA. It is being hosted by The Dupuy Institute but is an open conference and we are looking for interested presenters and attendees from all corners of the historical analysis, operations research, and historical research communities. Purpose: To explore and
- [More on the revived ISIL](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/23/more-on-the-revived-isil/) - I have still not seen anything on the U.S. news about the resurgent ISIL, but it is on the French news. Heavy fighting continues for 3rd day to stop ISIS prison break attempt in Syria (yahoo.com) A few points that get my attention: It appears that ISIL was executing prison guards. The U.S. is conducting
- [In Case We Forget](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/21/in-case-we-forget/) - This AP news report caught my attention: Islamic State gunmen mount deadly attacks in Syria, Iraq: dozens killedThe points that stand out to me: 1. "In Iraq, IS gunmen attacked an army barracks [at 3 a.m.] in a mountainous area north of Badhdad early Friday, killing 11 soldiers as they slept..." 2. "In Syria,
- [Some comments on Kazakhstan](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2022/01/10/some-comments-on-kazakhstan/) - As I am sure a lot of people have noticed, Kazakhstan has been in the news this week. The protests there have been large and violent. They are now saying that at least 164 people have died, including 18 police. It has put an end to the influence of the longest serving FSU (Former Soviet
- [U.S. Defense Budget for 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/12/29/u-s-defense-budget-for-2022/) - The U.S. Defense budget was signed into law on Monday. A few things that caught my attention: Increase of 5% (I guess we have to replace all that equipment left behind in Afghanistan). 2.7% pay raise (which I gather makes up around 2% or so of that 5% increase). Seems to be focused on keeping
- [Russian Invasions - update 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/12/28/russian-invasions-update-1/) - Well, it appears that the U.S. and Russia will hold "security talks" on Jan. 10, 12 and 13. See: https://news.yahoo.com/1-u-russian-officials-set-035411514.html I noted in my original post post four possibilities. The last one listed was "4. Or the build up may be the message (most likely option)." Russian Invasions | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) It does appear
- [Protests in Russia - week 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/01/protests-in-russia-week-2/) - Well, not really week 2 of protests in Russia as there has been protests going on in Kharborovsk since July 2020. There are also still scattered protests in Belarus and there have been pro-Belarus (anti-Lukashenko) protests in St. Petersburg. Protests are actually becoming quite common in the FSU (Former Soviet Union).Anyhow, certainly tens of
- [Meanwhile, In Afghanistan…](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2016/11/01/meanwhile-in-afghanistan/) - The latest quarterly report from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has been released. America’s military involvement in Afghanistan passed its 15th anniversary in October. The data presented in the SIGAR report show some disturbing trends. Through the first eight months of 2016, Afghan national defense and security forces suffered approximately 15,000 casualties,
- [Russian Invasions](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/12/05/russian-invasions/) - My son was texting me today about the threat Russia appears to be posing towards Ukraine. Glad he is paying attention. According to an article he read, the Russians have gathered 175,000 troops on the border and 10 days of supply.Now, according to Wikipedia (which is usually drawn from IISS) the Ukrainian Armed Forces has
- [Rickenbacker at Narragansett Park Speedway - 1915](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/12/01/rickenbacker-at-narragansett-park-speedway-1915/) - On September 18, 1915 Eddie Rickenbacker (America's top ace in the Great War) won the 100 mile race at Narragansett Park Speedway in Providence, Rhode Island. It was his third win that year.One internet lap board has his lap leader breakdown as (100 one-mile laps):Eddie Rickenbacker in a Maxwell: leads laps 1-36Ralph DePalma in a
- [Two Different Accounts of the Same Air Battle - part 2 of 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/11/29/two-different-accounts-of-the-same-air-battle-part-2-of-2/) - And then Boelcke's letter continues, clearly referring to events on the same day (from same paragraph that says "on the 9th..."): "The French were very cross with us about that; when the pair of us arrived at the front in the evening for a peaceful bit of hunting, practically all the French aircraft in the
- [Two Different Accounts of the Same Air Battle - part 1 of 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/11/29/two-different-accounts-of-the-same-air-battle-part-1-of-2/) - On 9 September 1915, both Oswald Boelcke and Max Immelmann are credited with a kill, the 3rd kill for Boelcke and the 2nd for Immelmann. According to the Aerodrome website, Boelcke shot down a Morane two-seater in the P.M. at French lines. Immelmann shot down a biplane. We gather these claims are drawn from Norman
- [Justinianic Plague](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/11/23/justinianic-plague/) - I have always had a certain morbid fascination with plagues. For example: Plagues and Peoples | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) The London Plague of 1665 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) And of course: Plague? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Coronavirus – One year later | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Anyhow, saw the following article yesterday
- [Plague?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/01/27/plague/) - This is far from my area of expertise, but I am following the spread of the Coronavirus with concern. It has already killed over 50 80 106 people in China, forced them to shut down a city of 11 million people (Wuhan); and now there are three five cases in the U.S., three in France,
- [The London Plague of 1665](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2016/09/13/the-london-plague-of-1665/) - Completely irrelevant to modern warfare (we hope), but they have confirmed that the plague that hit London in 1664 was the bubonic plague. I was not aware that there was much question about this. Still interesting stuff based upon DNA: DNA Confirms Cause of 1665 London's Great Plague DNA from Ancient Skeletons Reveals Cause of
- [Plagues and Peoples](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2016/07/14/plagues-and-peoples/) - William H. McNeill passed away. William H. McNeill His book "Plagues and Peoples" (1976) was definitely an influence on my thinking. Nothing like having some major external factor overriding all the work of the "great men" who lead nations.
- [Some Polling on Taiwan](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/11/22/some-polling-on-taiwan/) - This article showed up on my yahoo news feed that caught my attention: https://news.yahoo.com/poll-almost-9-10-taiwanese-184348279.html Highlights: 86% of Taiwanese oppose "one country, two system" policy of Deng Xiaoping. 85% of Taiwanese support maintain the status quo, 7% say Taiwan should declare independence, and 1.6% expressed support for reunification. 69% of Americans support the recognition of Taiwan as
- [Casualty Effectiveness versus Combat Effectiveness](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/11/18/casualty-effectiveness-versus-combat-effectiveness/) - I have been involved in an off-line discussion related to combat modeling. This is a discussion relevant to that conversation. It is from page 56, Chapter 7: Measuring Human Factors in Combat, of War by Numbers. Casualty Effectiveness versus Combat Effectiveness Much of the above analysis was based upon a measurement of casualty
- [Pratas Island](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/11/05/pratas-island/) - Noted an article yesterday: https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-debated-attacking-taiwan-controlled-123900171.html Basically, Taiwan is saying that China is considering invading Pratas island in 2024 or after (but not before 2024). Now, Pratas Island is located 200 miles (310 kilometers) southeast of Hong Kong. It is 276 miles (444 kilometers) from Taiwan. It is a circular atoll with a single island that
- [Does this mean that we are four-for-four in our predictions?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/11/04/does-this-mean-that-we-are-four-for-four-in-our-predictions/) - Well, I took the time over the last few weeks to post up most of my Chapter on Afghanistan from my book America's Modern Wars. It was interesting to revisit what I had written. The 13 blog posts are summarized here: Summation of Afghanistan Chapter | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Note that our fourth to
- [I like to claim that we are three-for-three in our predictions...](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/11/03/i-like-to-claim-that-we-are-three-for-three-in-our-predictions/) - We have discussed on this blog before our analysis for the Gulf War, the casualty estimate for Bosnia peacekeeping mission, and the casualty and duration estimate for Iraq. In each case, we were either the closest public estimate or pretty much dead on. Just as a reminder: Predictions | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Now, back
- [Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 12](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/03/31/coronavirus-mortality-rates-update-12/) - Well, the coronavirus is now the lead story of every news service. There are a lot of real experts now on TV talking about this. Not sure how much longer I will continue these coronavirus updates. But, since my last post the number of cases is up dramatically, sadly so are the number of deaths,
- [Warbirds Over the Beach Airshow 7 (final Great War pictures)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/10/29/warbirds-over-the-beach-airshow-7-final-great-war-pictures/) - In early October I spent the weekend in Virginia Beach at the “Warbirds Over the Beach” airshow. This seventh post on the air show include some more Great War airplane pictures that I took and a few other pictures taken by others. It will be my last post of Great War airplanes for now. This
- [Warbirds Over the Beach Airshow 6 (Fokkers)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/10/27/warbirds-over-the-beach-airshow-6-fokkers/) - In early October I spent the weekend in Virginia Beach at the “Warbirds Over the Beach” airshow. This sixth post on the air show include some more Great War airplane pictures that I took, and a few other pictures. Fokker became famous during the Great War. In addition to inventing the first working synchronized machinegun,
- [Warbirds Over the Beach Airshow 4 (Nieuport 17)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/10/21/warbirds-over-the-beach-airshow-4-nieuport-17/) - In early October I spent the weekend in Virginia Beach at the “Warbirds Over the Beach” airshow. This fourth post on the air show include some more Great War airplane pictures that I took, and a few other pictures. Cockpit picture of a Nieuport 17, one of the most common of the French fighters (some
- [Warbirds Over the Beach Airshow 5 (Halberstadt CL IV)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/10/26/warbirds-over-the-beach-airshow-5-halberstadt-cl-iv/) - In early October I spent the weekend in Virginia Beach at the “Warbirds Over the Beach” airshow. This fifth post on the air show include some more Great War airplane pictures that I took, and a few other pictures. This is a Halberstadt CL IV. This was a late war plane introduced in 1918. Mercedes
- [Warbirds Over the Beach Airshow 2 (Bleriot XI)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/10/15/warbirds-over-the-beach-airshow-2/) - Spent the week before down in Virginia Beach at the “Warbirds Over the Beach” airshow. This second post on the air show includes some more of the pictures I took, although they are far from “professional” In their museum is a Bleriot XI. It did not fly. This airplane may have been the second most
- [Nicholas Krawciw (MG, USA), 1935-2021](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/10/11/nicholas-krawciw-mg-usa-1935-2021/) - I just found out this weekend that Nicholas Stephen Hordij Krawciw passed away on 29 September at Ft. Belvoir. He was 85 years old.Nick Krawciw replaced Trevor Dupuy as the head of The Dupuy Institute in 1995 after the untimely death of Trevor Dupuy. He continued as head until 2005, when I was promoted to
- [Beyond Lanchester](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/10/08/beyond-lanchester/) - The publication of the book Beyond Lanchester last year had escaped me. See Beyond Lanchester: Stochastic Granular Attrition Combat Processes His blurb on the book: F.W. Lanchester famously reduced the mutual erosion of attrition warfare to simple mathematical form, resulting in his famous "Square Law," and also the "Linear Law." Followers have sought to fit
- [Warbirds Over the Beach Airshow 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/10/10/warbirds-over-the-beach-airshow-1/) - Spent this last week down in Virginia Beach at the "Warbirds Over the Beach" airshow. Also visited their museum. Took a few pictures, although far from "professional"Here are some of the Great War planes lined up behind the hangers. These are all flying models: The first plane is the Curtis Flyer, 1911. This is a
- [Summation of Afghanistan Chapter](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/10/06/summation-of-afghanistan-chapter/) - This is a summation of the 13 posts drawn (copied) from Chapter 21: Relating a Force Ratio Model to Afghanistan (pages 253-273) of America's Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam: So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 2
- [What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? (part 13) - Conclusions](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/09/23/what-does-my-book-say-about-afghanistan-part-13-conclusions/) - Continuing the discussion on Afghanistan drawn from pages 269-270 of America’s Modern Wars (2015): CONCLUSIONS One cannot but help to compare Iraq to Afghanistan. In the case of Iraq, we faced a regional or factional insurgency mostly based upon the minority Sunnis, we installed a government from the majority Shiite faction and then backed that
- [What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? (part 12) - Political Will](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/09/20/what-does-my-book-say-about-afghanistan-part-12-political-will/) - Continuing the discussion on Afghanistan drawn from pages 266-269 of America’s Modern Wars (one table and the footnotes are not included): POLITICAL WILL The United States has lost 499 killed from all causes in Afghanistan in 2010. Compared to Vietnam, this does not seem like much, but when compared to all insurgencies; it is enough
- [So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? - part 11](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/09/15/so-what-does-my-book-say-about-afghanistan-part-11/) - Continuing the discussion on Afghanistan drawn from fragments of text from pages 264-266 of America’s Modern Wars. LESSONS AND OBSERVATIONS There are five final lessons or observations that we wish to make about this war [Afghanistan]… Finally, one must ask the question, did the United States almost loose the war in Afghanistan, or at least
- [So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? - part 10](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/09/14/so-what-does-my-book-say-about-afghanistan-part-10/) - Continuing the discussion on Afghanistan drawn from fragments of text from page 264-266 of America’s Modern Wars. LESSONS AND OBSERVATIONS There are five final lessons or observations that we wish to make about this war [Afghanistan]… The fourth observation concerns the issue of rules of engagement. Even under the tightly controlled rules of engagements the
- [So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? - part 7](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/09/07/so-what-does-my-book-say-about-afghanistan-part-7/) - Continuing the discussion on Afghanistan drawn from fragments of text from pages 264-266 of America’s Modern Wars (2015). "Part 6" of this discussion was my blog post "Dueling Surges." LESSONS AND OBSERVATIONS There are five final lessons or observations that we wish to make about this war [Afghanistan]. First, it is clear that the
- [So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? - part 8](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/09/08/so-what-does-my-book-say-about-afghanistan-part-8/) - Continuing the discussion on Afghanistan drawn from fragments of text from pages 264-266 of America’s Modern Wars. LESSONS AND OBSERVATIONS There are five final lessons or observations that we wish to make about this war [Afghanistan]... Second, we question the wisdom of concentrating and giving priority to developing the Afghan police forces ahead of
- [So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? - part 9](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/09/09/so-what-does-my-book-say-about-afghanistan-part-9/) - Continuing the discussion on Afghanistan drawn from fragments of text from pages 264-266 of America’s Modern Wars. LESSONS AND OBSERVATIONS There are five final lessons or observations that we wish to make about this war [Afghanistan]... The third lesson concerns the value of these "little surges" that the U.S. did in Iraq and is
- [Dueling Surges](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/09/02/dueling-surges/) - This is effectively "So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? - part 6. It is continuing the discussion on Afghanistan drawn from fragments of text from pages 262-264 of America's Modern Wars: DUELING SURGES Afghanistan shows that a surge and good tactics alone do not win insurgencies. It is claimed by some that this
- [So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/08/24/so-what-does-my-book-say-about-afghanistan/) - Now that America has lost another war, what does my book say about Afghanistan?In 2015 my book, America's Modern Wars, was published. It took a while to line up a publisher. I ended up having to give it a complete re-working. I do have a chapter on Afghanistan. This book came about as a result
- [So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? - part 5](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/09/01/so-what-does-my-book-say-about-afghanistan-part-5/) - Continuing the discussion on Afghanistan drawn from fragments of text from pages 260-262 of America's Modern Wars: The 2013 figure of 20,093 incidents a year does argue for a significant insurgency force. If we use a conservative figure of 333 incidents per thousand insurgents, then we are looking at more than 60,000 full-time and part-time
- [So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? - part 4](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/08/31/so-what-does-my-book-say-about-afghanistan-part-4/) - Continuing the discussion on Afghanistan drawn from fragments of text from pages 258-260 of America's Modern Wars: We received no substantive response to our briefing and meanwhile the war in Afghanistan continued. Finally in early 2009, we wrote an unpublished op-ed piece that said in part: Right now, in Afghanistan we have very roughly 30,000
- [So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? - part 3](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/08/26/so-what-does-my-book-say-about-afghanistan-part-3/) - Picking the discussion up from fragments of text from pages 256 - 258 of America's Modern Wars: ...if we use the figure of 250 incidents [per thousand], then we are looking at an estimated insurgent strength as high as 26,384 [in December 2008]. This is still based upon a performance that may have been better
- [So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? - part 2](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/08/25/so-what-does-my-book-say-about-afghanistan-part-2/) - So the opening paragraph of my chapter (see page 253 of America's Modern Wars) on Afghanistan says (after the infamous George W. Bush quote): Afghanistan is an unusual case, as the central government (controlled by the Taliban) was overthrown in 2001 by the U.S. and their Afghan allies, with the U.S. allied with and helping
- [More Conclusions on Scatterable Mines](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/08/18/more-conclusions-on-scatterable-mines/) - Just wanted to pull up the rest of our conclusions from page 43 of the "Military Consequences of a Complete Landmine Ban" report. I had left this out of my last post for the sake of keeping the post sort. The entire report is here: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/pdf/m-6mineban.pdfThere were seven conclusions and three recommendations in the original report.
- [Appendix II: The 39th Panzer Regiment at Kursk](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/08/19/appendix-ii-the-39th-panzer-regiment-at-kursk/) - Appendix II had a brief discussion of the tank losses in the 39th Panzer Regiment due to mines in our report on "The Military Consequences of a Complete Landmine Ban." This is from http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/pdf/m-6mineban.pdf. It reads as follows:APPENDIX II: THE 39th PANZER REGIMENT AT KURSK Losses in the 39th Panzer Regiment at Kursk are confusing.
- [Mark Perry - part 2 (and Landmine Restrictions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/08/17/mark-perry-part-2-and-landmine-restrictions/) - Last week author Mark Perry passed away. I had not talked to him in over a decade, but we worked with him 20 years ago. Links to articles on him: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/death-of-an-american-original-mark-perry-1950-2021/ https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/08/08/rip-mark-perry-an-extraordinary-journalist-in-extraordinary-times/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Perry_(author) Mark Perry, working with the Vietnam Veterans of America Foundation (VVAF), had arranged to have our original 1997 report that we did
- [Mark Perry (and Landmine Restrictions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/08/12/mark-perry/) - I saw on Twitter yesterday that Mark Perry had passed away. I had not talked to him in over a decade, but we worked with him 20 years ago. Links to articles on him: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/death-of-an-american-original-mark-perry-1950-2021/ https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/08/08/rip-mark-perry-an-extraordinary-journalist-in-extraordinary-times/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Perry_(author)Back in the fall of 1995 we did a casualty estimate for our proposed deployment to Bosnia for the
- [Sorting out the Tucson Race of March 20, 1915](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/07/22/sorting-out-the-tucson-race-of-march-20-1915/) - Not the usual subjects I look at, but was trying sort out the results of the Tucson Indy-car race on March 20, 1915.One internet source I have shows the 11 runners. It has George Clark leading the first lap and Barney Oldfield (THE Barney Oldfield) leading the next 23 laps. See: https://www.racing-reference.info/race-results/1915_Tucson_Race/UO/But apparently in the real
- [Things related to our discussion on invading Taiwan](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/07/16/things-related-to-our-discussion-on-invading-taiwan/) - Over the last month, we did something like eleven posts analyzing the possibilities and the ability of China to invade and occupy Taiwan. The summery post is here:Will China invade Taiwan in the next 20 years? Summation: | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Just spotted a CNN article that is related: US Air Force to send
- [New WWII German Maps At The National Archives](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2017/03/03/new-wwii-german-maps-at-the-national-archives/) - The Special Media Archives Services Division of the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) in Washington, D.C. announced on it's blog, The Unwritten Record, the recent opening of two new series in Record Group 242: National Archives Collection of Foreign Records Seized. The new series are German Situation Maps of the Western Front, 1944-1945 (NAID 40432392) and
- [Will China invade Taiwan in the next 20 years? Summation:](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/07/06/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-the-next-20-years-summation/) - This post is a summation of my previous ten posts on the subject. We first looked in two posts whether there was a reasonable threat of Taiwan being invaded in the next six years. Our conclusion was that the idea was "somewhat loopy." I was surprised that I received no push-back from any readers on
- [Variable 3: How is the economy of China doing?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/11/variable-3-how-is-the-economy-of-china-doing/) - Now, the Chinese economy has been on a tear for the last three decades. This graph cribbed from Wikipedia nicely shows this trend: It was doing double-digit growth rates and is still growing 6-7% a year. As I point out in my previous blog posts, the Chinese armed forces are not really ready to invade
- [Variable 5: What is the degree of U.S. commitment to Taiwan?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/21/variable-5-what-is-the-degree-of-u-s-commitment-to-taiwan/) - The people who are saying with certainty that China is going to invade Taiwan in the next two decades seem to be discounting a lot of factors that would indicate that China would not do so, regardless. For example, I would guess that there is at least a 50% chance that the Chinese economy would
- [The Snowballing Effects of a Virus?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/01/28/the-snowballing-effects-of-a-virus/) - Again, this is not my area of expertise, since I'm mostly into Pfizer stock speculation and such, but as the Coronavirus does not seem to be going away any time soon, probably worthwhile to look at the effects of such a disease if it continues to expand, beyond the issues of health and mortality. Economic
- [Variable 4: Is there a problem with internal turmoil and unrest in China?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/17/variable-4-is-there-a-problem-with-internal-turmoil-and-unrest-in-china/) - Depressions begat revolutions. Now it ain't so simple as that, but there is a big enough correlation here that every time there is a economic downturn, a nation's leaders should be looking over their shoulder in concern. If they are a democratic government, it probably means they will now have time to write their memoirs.
- [Does a copy of the silent film The Sky Raider (1925) still exist? - apparently not](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/04/does-a-copy-of-the-silent-film-the-sky-raider-1925-still-exist/) - I have been trying to find a copy of the silent film The Sky Raider (1925) staring the famous French ace Charles Nungesser. Does the movie still exist?I have so far only been able to find this 2.36 minute extract, with the text in Dutch: Bits & Pieces Nr. 15 (The Sky Raider) - YouTube
- [Will China invade Taiwan in the next 20 years?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/06/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-the-next-20-year/) - I did three posts recently looking at the claim by retiring Admiral Phillip Davidson of the Indo-Pacific Command indicating that he thought China might invade Taiwan in the next six years: "I think the threat is manifest...in the next six years..." I ended up concluding (in bold) that "I do find the idea that mainland
- [Variable 2: What is the changing composition of the politburo?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/08/variable-2-what-is-the-changing-composition-of-the-politburo/) - This subject would be best discussed by a proper "China watcher", vice me. But... let me make a few observations on this. Politburo's in the Soviet Union and in Red China have traditionally, but not always, been subservient to the leading political figure of the day. This leading figure is usually the Chairman of the
- [Variable 1: Who is the leader of China?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/07/variable-1-who-is-the-leader-of-china/) - This is a pretty straightforward discussion. Xi Jinping is 67 years old. It is not unusual for leaders to remain in power in dictatorships until they are well into the 80s. It is also possible that leaders in China can retire (it has happened recently). So, the four options are: Xi Jinping remains in power
- [Will China take the risk and actually invade Taiwan?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/05/18/will-china-take-the-risk-and-actually-invade-taiwan/) - One of our commenters asked the question "So what if the PRC President for Life takes a gamble?" Invading Taiwan is a high risk operation as discussed in our previous posts: Invading Taiwan in the next six years – the fight? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Invading Taiwan in the next six years – wherefore
- [Invading Taiwan in the next six years - the fight?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/05/11/invading-taiwan-in-the-next-six-years-the-fight/) - So, the question is, what are we really looking at for an invasion of Taiwan? A few caveats: 1) I am no China expert, 2) I have never been involved in gaming or analyzing the defense of Taiwan, and 3) I have no real “insider” knowledge of the subject at hand. The armed forces of
- [Proposed Defense Budget for 2022](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/06/01/proposed-defense-budget-for-2022/) - The president has proposed his defense budget for 2022. The budget has not gone down, which may not have been what some people expected. The Department of Defense (DOD) budget is $715 billion. This is an increase in the budget of $10 billion from 2021, or about 1.6 percent. Inflation in 2020 is estimated to
- [JSTOR, Trevor Dupuy, Combat Data and the 3:1 Rule](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/05/20/jstor-and-trevor-dupuy/) - In moments of quiet I sometimes search the internet to see if people are referencing our work. Sometimes I run across articles and discussions I have forgotten about. This was one of them: Combat Data and the 3:1 Rule We have blogged about this subject a few times before (and even referenced the JSTOR article):
- [Invading Taiwan in the next six years - wherefore and why?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/19/invading-taiwan-in-the-next-six-years-wherefore-and-why/) - Last month Admiral Phillip Davidson, Indo-Pacific Command, said that “I worry that they’re [China] accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order. They’ve long said they want to do that by 2050, I’m worried about them moving that target closer. Taiwan is clearly one of their
- [So should Ukraine join NATO?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/30/so-should-ukraine-join-nato/) - I gather that we are on the path for Ukraine to NATO at some point in the future. It is clearly something that the current government of Ukraine wants, although Russia is hostile to the idea and the west is wary. Ukraine was in the Partnership for Peace program and working towards joining NATO until
- [So the Russian-Ukrainian Crisis is Over for now?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/29/so-the-russian-ukrainian-crisis-is-over-for-now/) - Well, it looks like Russia has pulled back some of its troops and equipment for the moment. So a lot of noise, but no action.One does wonder why this occurred. Possibilities include:1. They wanted to make a little noise to make some point to Ukraine. Possibly anger over President Zelensky banning three pro-Russian media channels
- [Accounting for Death in War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/27/accounting-for-death-in-war/) - Just spotted on Twitter that Dr. Michael Spagat is offering a free course Accounting for Death in Warfare: Separating Fact from Fiction. It starts 24 May. I gather it is free and anyone can sign up. See: www.futurelearn.com I am a big fan of Michael Spagat's work, having blogged about it before: TDI Friday Read: Mike
- [Over 120,000 Russian troops?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/21/over-120000-russian-troops/) - Ukraine is saying that Russia will soon have over 120,000 troops on its border. See: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-reach-over-120-000-122611381.html "The figure....is higher than Ukraine's previous estimate of 80,000 Russian troops, of which 50,000 were new deployments." Do I read that to mean that they started with 30,000 troops and have added over 90,000 more troops? Related blog
- [150,000 Russian Troops?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/20/150000-russian-troops/) - Well, the European Union's (EU) top diplomat is now saying that "It is more than 150,000 Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian borders and in Crimea." This is an increase from the 93,000 figure being bandied around last week.Not sure of the source for his figures, perhaps from Ukraine.Anyhow, 150K vs Ukraine's 255K? Starting to
- [Andreyevka Map for the game Prokhorovka!](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/08/andreyevka-map-for-the-game-prokhorovka/) - As I have mentioned before, I am preparing a little write-up for the Italian wargame company Advancing Fire for their game Prokhorovka! (PROKHOROVKA! (advancingfire.com). They are designing a set of scenarios for use in the game Advanced Squad Leader (ASL). They have been providing me with some of their advance material, although I am not involved in
- [The Prokhorovka! game maps - comments?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/15/the-prokhorovka-game-maps-comments/) - I have done four posts on the game maps for the upcoming Advanced Squad Leader (ASL) module Prokhorovka!. I have not been involved in the developing the game, but found the effort worthwhile and interesting. What I was hoping to get back from those posts were comments on the game maps themselves, what was done
- [83,000 Russian Troops?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/13/83000-russian-troops/) - On Monday, apparently Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's spokeswoman told AFP that Russia now has 41,000 troops on Ukraine's eastern border and 42,000 soldiers on the Crimean peninsula.Lets take that at face value for the moment. Ukraine has around 255K troops in active duty. So 83K vs 255K? Not exactly overwhelming force, yet. In response the
- [The ORO/RAC/GRC Library](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/12/the-oro-rac-grc-library/) - I noticed my posts in 2017 on the HERO and SAIC Libraries got a couple of hits a week or so ago. I was actually planning on continuing posting on this subject at the time, but got sidetracked. So, let me take a moment now to post on another disappeared library. The Operations Research Office
- [Ukraine in NATO?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/06/ukraine-in-nato/) - NATO currently consists of 30 members. This includes three members of the former Soviet Union (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) and all former members of the Warsaw Pact except Russia (Poland, East Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Albania). Ukraine borders Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. Noticed in the news today that President Zelensky
- [Ukraine vs Russia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/02/ukraine-vs-russia/) - There seems to a little noise in the news reports and on twitter about Russian military build-up near the Ukrainian border areas with Russia. Yesterday, President Biden talked to President Zelensky of Ukraine. I do not know how serious this is, but it might be worthwhile for a moment to take a look at how
- [Stalinskii Map for the game Prokhorovka!](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/04/01/stalinskii-map-for-the-game-prokhorovka/) - As I have mentioned before, I am preparing a little write-up for the Italian wargame company Advancing Fire for their game Prokhorovka! (PROKHOROVKA! (advancingfire.com). They are designing a set of scenarios for use in the game Advanced Squad Leader (ASL). They have been providing me with some of their advance material, although I am not involved in
- [Oktyabrskii Map for the game Prokhorovka!](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/25/oktyabrskii-map-for-the-game-prokhorovka/) - As I have mentioned before, I am preparing a little write-up for the Italian wargame company Advancing Fire for their game Prokhorovka! (PROKHOROVKA! (advancingfire.com). They are designing a set of scenarios for use in the game Advanced Squad Leader (ASL). They have been providing me with some of their advance material, although I am not involved in
- [St. Mary's Fort found](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/24/st-marys-fort-found/) - News article this morning that caught my attention. They have finally found the location of St. Mary's Fort, near St. Mary's City in Maryland. https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/tripideas/after-nearly-century-long-search-archaeologists-find-maryland-s-1st-european-settlement/ar-BB1eSA9E?ocid=msedgntp This was the fourth English colony consisting of around 150 people and established in 1634, in what became the United States of America. It was a Catholic colony (which is
- [A List of Killed and Wounded SS Panzer Officers, July 1943](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/23/a-list-of-killed-and-wounded-ss-panzer-officers-july-1943/) - There are some daily medical reports in the files that I have (T354, R605, the II SS Pz Corps). Sometimes they provide a list of names and the units they are with. Sometimes this list is readable. Let me list the ones that are clearly reported with an SS panzer regiment up through 28 July
- [Some Statistics on Afghanistan (March 2021)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/22/some-statistics-on-afghanistan-march-2021/) - I have not blogged much recently about Afghanistan, although we seem to be reaching a decision point as to what to do with the peace deal negotiated with the Taliban by the previous president that called for the removal of all U.S. troops from there by 1 May. The country has been in open warfare
- [Storozhevoye Map for the game Prokhorovka!](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/18/storozhevoye-map-for-the-game-prokhorovka/) - As I have mentioned before, I am preparing a little write-up for the Italian wargame company Advancing Fire for their game Prokhorovka! (PROKHOROVKA! (advancingfire.com). They are designing a set of scenarios for use in the game Advanced Squad Leader (ASL). They have been providing me with some of their advance material, although I am not involved
- [Wargaming in the U.S. Army](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/12/wargaming-in-the-u-s-army/) - I was asked recently about wargaming in the U.S. Army, and I kind of punted on the question. I then got a friend of mine to answer it. The wargaming efforts we have been involved in have been primarily for analysis and casualty estimation efforts. We have not been involved in wargaming for training, officer
- [Meanwhile back at the Tank Ditch](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/11/meanwhile-back-at-the-tank-ditch/) - One other statement in the Lehmann account is that "These three [surviving tanks of the 6th panzer company] could fire at the Russians from a distance of ten to thirty meters and make every shell a direct hit because the Russians could not see through the dust and smoke that there were German tanks rolling
- [Dupuy Mentioned in Dispatches - 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/05/dupuy-mentioned-in-dispatches-1/) - A friend just sent me a recent article from the Strategy Page that mentions Trevor Dupuy's work: Leadership: Meaningful Measures of Military Might Trevor Dupuy is mentioned four times in the eleventh paragraph of the article: "One notable practitioner of this was military historian and World War II artillery officer Trevor Dupuy." "For example, Trevor
- [Summation of Argument on LSSAH PzRgt Organization in July 1943](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/03/04/summation-of-argument-of-lssah-pzrgt-organization-in-july-1943/) - In the case of how the LSSAH Panzer Regiment was organized in July 1943 (as there is no clear documentation of this), there are three options:1) The regiment consisted of only the II Panzer Battalion with 5th, 6th, and 7th panzer companies, and the 13th panzer company for the Tigers. 2) The II Panzer Battalion
- [Bibliography on Clausewitz](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/27/bibliography-on-clausewitz/) - This bibliography on Carl von Clausewitz, a name that I assume is known to most of our readers, was just brought to my attention. It was assembled by Christopher Bassford, who is not known to me. Clausewitz Bibliography (English) (clausewitzstudies.org) A few comments: He does not list Understanding War by Trevor N. Dupuy. That is
- [Two other TMCI Reports](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/27/two-other-tmci-reports/) - The Military Conflict Institute shut down early 2020. An associate of mine has been trying to chase down all of their work.There are these three reports: The Three TMCI Reports | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) There was this brief 20-page paper written by the late Roger Mickelson: /tardir/tiffs/a396349.tiff (dtic.mil) One notes that Roger Mickelson titled
- [The Three TMCI Reports - Bump](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/27/the-three-tmci-reports-bump/) - In a conversation I was having yesterday, I had actually forgotten that I had done this. There are 1,164 posts on this blog. I do forget about a couple of them now and then. The Three TMCI Reports | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
- [Attrition has been discounted to $877.95](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/26/attrition-has-been-discounted-to-877-95/) - One can find a copy of Attrition: Forecasting Battle Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War on Amazon.com for $877.95. It used to sell for $890. Attrition for $900 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) On the other hand, we are still selling new copies for the list price of $19.95. See here: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/booksfs.htm Ordering information is
- [Attrition for $900](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/09/17/attrition-for-900/) - I was on the phone with someone earlier today and he told me that Attrition: Forecasting Battle Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War was on sale on Amazon.com for only $900. I took a look, and sure enough, they have used one for $121.00 and a new one $890. That is it. On the
- [Did II Panzer Battalion LSSAH have 33 tanks on 11 July 1943?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/25/did-ii-panzer-battalion-lssah-have-33-tanks-on-11-july-1943/) - There is a post-war account (published in 1990) by the LSSAH Division chief of staff Major Rudolf Lehmann where he states that the II Panzer Battalion had 33 panzers. That is sometimes interpreted as meaning that the afternoon or evening of 11 July 1943 there remained near height 252.2 around 33 panzers. This would be
- [Did the LSSAH have 3 panzer panzer companies, 4 panzer companies or two panzer battalions in July 1943?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/18/did-the-lssah-have-3-panzer-panzer-companies-4-panzer-companies-or-two-battalions-in-july-1943/) - This subject has been discussed here before, but I am now preparing a little write-up for Advancing Fire for their game Prokhorovka! (PROKHOROVKA! (advancingfire.com) So, as this is a controversial argument, I wanted to present it here again. ----------the write-up---------------------- I am of the opinion that the LSSAH Division had more than three medium panzer
- [Situation Currently in Afghanistan](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/15/situation-currently-in-afghanistan/) - I have not blogged about Afghanistan in a while, since: Some Statistics on Afghanistan (April 2020) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)Will probably be a addressing it more in the near future. There was New York Times article today that I thought was worthwhile. It is here: The Taliban Close In on Afghan Cities, Pushing the
- [Cost of Creating a Data Base](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2017/08/03/cost-of-creating-a-data-base/) - Invariably, especially with a new book coming out (War by Numbers), I expected to get requests for copies of our data bases. In fact, I already have. Back around 1987 or so, a very wise man (Curt Johnson, VP of HERO) estimated that for the LWDB (Land Warfare Data Base) that it took 3 man-days to
- [The Division Level Engagement Data Base (DLEDB)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2019/03/26/the-division-level-engagement-data-base-dledb/) - The Division Level Engagement Data Base (DLEDB) is one of eight data bases that make up our DuWar suite of databases: See http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/dbases.htm This data base, of 752 engagements, is described in depth at: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/data/dledb.htm It now consists of 752 engagements from 1904 to 1991. It was originally created in 2000-2001 by us independent of
- [Home Before the Leaves Fall...?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/06/home-before-the-leaves-fall/) - It is reputed that Kaiser Wilhelm II said in August 1914 while reviewing his troops that "You will be home before the leaves fall from the trees." Does anyone know exactly when and where he said this? Does anyone have the text of the speech that he made this statement in?
- [U.S. Fleet versus Chinese Fleet](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/02/04/u-s-fleet-versus-chinese-fleet/) - This subject has been addressed in a few cases in our past posts. Let's dredge up a few:From January 2020:The Size of Fleets in the South China Sea, Part 1 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)Size of Fleets around the South China Sea, Part 2 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) U.S. Navy Compared to Russian Navy
- [U.S. versus China (GDP) - update 1](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/28/u-s-versus-chiina-gdp-update-1/) - Dredging up our old posts. This one is from 13 November 2018. U.S. versus China (GDP) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) As of 2017, U.S. GDP was $19.391 trillion according to the World Bank. The Chinese economy was $12.238 trillion. This was 63% of the U.S. economy. Now? Using the World Bank figures for 2019
- [The Meaning of the Morning Reports - 12 July 1943](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/27/the-meaning-of-the-morning-reports-12-july-1943/) - This is the follow-up post to "Morning Reports LSSAH": Morning Reports LSSAH – 12 July 1943 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) The original plan on 12 July was for the Fifth Guards Tank Army to launch it attacks from in front of Prokhorovka at 1000 AM (Moscow time). At the last minute, the Voronezh Front
- [No Deal Brexit?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/15/no-deal-brexit/) - This is a little out of our normal lanes of discussion, but I have watching Brexit for a while. In the end, economic power = military power, so the impact of this is worth examining. The UK is one of four of the ten largest economies in the world that are located in Europe (note
- [Protests in Russa](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/25/protests-in-russa/) - Well, large protests in Belarus have disappeared but they are still doing a number of smaller protests. This weekend the Belarus police detained/arrested around 100 protestors. Meanwhile protests have exploded in Russia. On Saturday, they started in the far east in the Siberian cities of Vladivostok and Kharbarovsk and erupted across dozens of cities across
- [Morning Reports LSSAH - 12 July 1943](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/26/morning-reports-lssah-12-july-1932/) - Seems like I never quite get away from the Battle of Kursk and move onto other work. As a result of piece I was working on, I ended up checking back in my files. This material below is quoted (translated) from a narrative of events kept by the SS Panzer Corps (file T313, R368). For
- [U.S. And China: Deterrence And Resolve Over North Korea](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2017/08/07/u-s-and-china-deterrence-and-resolve-over-north-korea/) - While North Korea tests its inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM)s, the U.S. and China demonstrate their capabilities and resolve to use force, both nuclear and conventional. These shows of force seem to be ratcheting up, as the North Korean tests occur more frequently. Flights of bombers and naval exercises are also complemented by words, sometimes quite
- [Update for Iraq and Syria](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2016/11/25/update-for-iraq-and-syria/) - [Map deleted at the request of AFP] A brief update from AFP. Mainly posted because I like the map of Mosul: Status-main-battle-fronts-Iraq-Syria Highlights: 40 percent of eastern Mosul had been re-taken. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are 15 miles (25 kilometers) north of Raqqa.
- [The Islamic State is in Retreat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2016/03/25/the-islamic-state-is-in-retreat/) - [Photo deleted at the request of AFP] An interesting article today in the Washington Post (photo from Huffington Post): The Islamic State is in Retreat A few lines caught my attention: "The U.S. military estimated earlier this year that the Islamic State had lost 40 percent of the territory it controlled at its peak in
- [Kuznetsov on Fire](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2019/12/13/kuznetsov-on-fire/) - [Photo deleted at the request of AFP] Just noted this article: https://news.yahoo.com/russias-only-aircraft-carrier-fire-port-news-agencies-100747109.html This is Russia's only carrier. It is in dock in Siberia undergoing refitting. It is supposed to be done in 2021...but this is doubtful. The Russian fleet is still extremely limited in capability. We have written about this before. https://dupuyinstitute.org/2017/01/12/lives-of-the-russian-and-ex-russian-aircraft-carriers/ https://dupuyinstitute.org/2016/10/21/the-admiral-kuznetsov-adventure/ https://dupuyinstitute.org/2016/10/21/russian-fleet-strength/ Our
- [Old Questions](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/22/old-questions/) - We have over a thousand posts on this blog. Always interesting to go back and look a few of these older ones. We had one blog post that simply asked on 9 November, 2016, after Donald Trump had been elected: What was going to be his foreign policy/national security policy. The old post is here:
- [U.S. Party in Power and the Defense Budget](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/21/u-s-party-in-power-and-the-defense-budget/) - The U.S. Defense budget goes up and down. This is sometimes related to external threats. It is often more closely correlated with which party is in power. Below is the chart of who held the House, Senate and Presidency since 1855. Below is a graph of the U.S. Defense budget as a percent of GDP
- [Censoring Remarks?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/20/censoring-remarks/) - We usually don't place any restrictions on incoming remarks. So far, this has not been an issue except for one remark a while back that looked suspicious. Our commentators on this blog have always been very respectful. We received another comment the other day that seemed odd. It referenced a paper on Kursk by an
- [The Demographics of the Last Election](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/18/the-demographics-of-the-last-election/) - The last three "political" posts referred to the sense that this latest election may be the start of a new period of single party dominance. We the looked at the changing demographics in the United States and then the change of religion. These three posts are here: Is the United States on the Verge of
- [The Current Situation with the Republican Party](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/19/the-current-situation-with-the-republican-party/) - The Republican Party appears to have about maxed out its support in most of its core demographics. There are two groups it has had more support from in the past that it lost in 2020, which is white male college educated voters and white female college educated voters. Still, with Trump taking 74 million votes
- [Religion in the U.S. over Time](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/15/religion-in-the-u-s-over-time/) - In addition to demographic changes, there also a shift in religious beliefs or lack thereof. The chart below shows the growth in various churched from 1780 to 1860. One will note it is primarily protestants, with Methodists and Baptists dominating. There is a very small line for Catholics. The Catholic areas tended to be where
- [U. S. Demographics: Then and Now](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/14/demographics-then-and-now/) - Much of what is driving the political landscape is demographics. In the United States in 1860, just before the U.S. Civil War, consisted mostly of either "white" protestants; "blacks," most of whom were slaves; and very few "Indians," most of whom lived on reservations. Obviously slaves could not vote but were all freed in 1865.
- [Updated Azerbaijani Casualties](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/14/updated-azerbaijani-casualties/) - Previously reported that Azerbaijan reported 2,783 troops killed during the six week 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. See: Casualty Counts from the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) Revised figures are 2,841 servicemen killed and 64 still reported as missing for a total of 2,905. The data is buried somewhere here: https://mod.gov.az/en/news/list-of-servicemen-who-died-as-shehids-in-the-patriotic-war-34433.html I cribbed it from
- [Is the United States on the Verge of Becoming a Single Party Democracy?](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/11/is-the-united-states-on-the-verge-of-becoming-a-single-party-democracy/) - The above chart shows who controlled the House of Representatives, the Senate and the Presidency from 1855 to 2021. As can be seen, there are two periods where one party dominated. From 1859 to 1933 the Republican Party dominated. The Republican Party was formed in 1854 and first took the Presidency in 1861 under Abraham
- [Disputed Elections - week 21](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2021/01/05/disputed-elections-week-21/) - Well, it kind of looks like this is over for now. There has been Christmas, New Years and no new significant large protests. I gather there are still flash mobs and small protests, but nothing like the tens of thousands in the street that there was. Two days ago the archbishop of Minsk resigned his
- [Events in Belarus](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/08/13/events-in-belarus/) - It is not front-page news in the United States, but events in Belarus are getting interesting. There are now daily demonstrations, the demonstrations are wide-spread, and there are supporting strikes. This does look serious and there appears to be a real chance that the dictatorial rule Lukashenko could be overthrown. I have never done a
- [More Force Ratio Posts](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/29/more-force-ratio-posts/) - The last two posts I made on force ratios was drawn from my book War by Numbers. There are additional posts I did early last year on the subject based upon my in-process follow-on book More War by Numbers. They are summarized here:Summation of Human Factors and Force Ratio posts | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
- [Force Ratios and CRTs](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/24/force-ratios-and-crts/) - Page 10 for War by Numbers includes the following table: European Theater of Operations (ETO) Data, 1944 Force Ratio Result Percent Failure Number of cases 0.55 to 1.01-to-1.00 Attack Fails 100%
- [Von Richthofen and David Irving](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/05/11/von-richthofen-and-david-irving/) - A few years ago I wrote an article on the History News Network on my decision to quote from David Irving's work in my book on Kursk. The article is here: https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/163814 This primarily concerned the conference on 4 May 1943 preceding the Battle of Kursk. This conference is described in some depth by Guderian
- [More Combat Results Tables from War by Numbers](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/26/more-combat-results-tables-from-war-by-numbers/) - Now, the purpose of War by Numbers was not to create Combat Results Tables (CRT) for wargames. Its real purpose was to test the theoretical ideas of Clausewitz, and more particularly, Trevor N. Dupuy to actual real-world data. Not as case studies, but as statistical compilations that would show what the norms are. Unfortunately, military
- [Disputed Elections - week 19](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/21/disputed-elections-week-19/) - The protests in Belarus continue to shrink. They report thousands of protestors in scattered locations this week, and over 100 arrested/detained (or 146 according to "Vesna"). This is the lowest arrest figure that I have seen in a while. I assume this is because there are less protestors, as opposed to the police becoming "kinder,
- [Staff Reference Guide](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/17/staff-reference-guide/) - The U.S. Army Staff Reference Guide, Volume I: Unclassified Resources, December 2020, ATP 5-0.2-1 has been released. Link to it is here: https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/ARN31193-ATP_5-0.2-1-000-WEB-1.pdf There are ten references to "Dupuy" in the guide, which I believe is a first. I do not recall any previous Army manual referencing Trevor Dupuy's work, even though I have seen his
- [Disputed Elections - week 18](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/14/disputed-elections-week-18/) - Pretty much the same-old-same-old with Belarus. The protests in Belarus drag on with no clear end in sight. The demonstrations this weekend were stated to include “thousands” of demonstrators protesting at a reported "more than 70 different sites" or "more than 120 marches." Clearly it is no longer “tens of thousands” protestors and far from
- [Casualty Counts from the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/10/casualty-counts-from-the-2020-nagorno-karabakh-war/) - Last week Azerbaijan announced that they lost 2,783 troops killed during the six week 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. They also reported more than 100 missing-in-action. Another 1,245 are being treated in medical facilities. Fighting ended on 10 November, so I gather this is the wounded that had to be hospitalized for more than a month. There
- [Disputed Elections - week 17](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/07/disputed-elections-week-17/) - The protests in Belarus drag on with no clear end in sight. The demonstrations this weekend were stated to include "thousands" of demonstrators. This is clearly a lower figure than the "tens of thousands" were have seen claimed before and from the more than a hundred thousand protestors that we saw on some of the
- [Disputed Elections - week 16](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/30/disputed-elections-week-16/) - Well, the protests in Belarus drag on. Not sure where this is going. Major events this week: Thousands protested this weekend. Was it tens of thousands? They switched the protests to a "march of neighbors," meaning instead of protesting in the heavily policed downtown, they did about 20+ separate protests across the various neighborhoods in
- [Their Wehrmacht was Better than our Army](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/12/01/their-wehrmacht-was-better-than-our-army/) - Poking around the internet, I ran across an article from 1985 by the British journalist and historian Max Hastings, rather provocatively titled "Their Wehrmacht was Better than our Army." It was published in the Washington Post. I had not seen it before (as I went to work for Trevor Dupuy in 1987): https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1985/05/05/their-wehrmacht-was-better-than-our-army/0b2cfe73-68f4-4bc3-a62d-7626f6382dbd/ A few
- [Disputed Elections - week 15](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/23/disputed-elections-week-15/) - Protests in Belarus continue as before. One protestor, 31 year old art teacher Roman Bondarenko, died last week in a hospital, probably as a result of a severe beating by plain clothes police officers (of course, their interior ministry denies this). His funeral on Friday was attended by 5,000 people and there were again tens
- [The Soviet General Staff study on Kursk compared to Unit Records (part 3 of 3 - Conclusions)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/28/the-soviet-general-staff-study-on-kursk-compared-to-unit-records-part-3-of-3-conclusions/) - What we did was a simple comparison of the Soviet General Staff study data on the air fighting in the south compared to the daily records we gathered from the Second and Seventeenth Air Armies. What we found was their were minor differences in the sortie counts, but overall that was close to what was
- [The Soviet General Staff study on Kursk compared to Unit Records (part 2 of 3 - Airplane Losses)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/27/the-soviet-general-staff-study-on-kursk-compared-to-unit-records-part-2-of-3-airplane-losses/) - This is the second part of my comparison of the data provided in the Soviet General Staff study on Kursk that was prepared in March-April 1944 compared to the Second and Seventeenth Air Army records that I have. Losses: There are one table on losses in the Soviet General Staff study on Kursk that
- [The Soviet General Staff study on Kursk compared to Unit Records (part 1 of 3 - Sortie Counts)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/26/the-soviet-general-staff-study-on-kursk-compared-to-unit-records-part-1-of-3-sortie-counts/) - For my on-going Aces at Kursk book I was asked by the publishers to include a Chapter on the air war in the north from 5-11 July 1943. For the original Kursk project we were able to access the Second and Seventeenth Air Army records in the south. We did not attempt to obtain the Sixteenth
- [Results from the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/17/results-from-the-2020-nagorno-karabakh-conflict/) - This six-week war is now over. It was effectively a two-week war with a four-week poorly maintained ceasefire. Now I gather a more permanent ceasefire is in place, with 2,000 Russian troops placed between the warring factions. Russia is not entirely a neutral player here, having somewhat favored Armenia while Turkey supported Azerbaijan. But as
- [Disputed Elections - week 14](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/16/disputed-elections-week-14/) - Another round of protests this weekend in Belarus. Tens of thousands protesting and 900+ arrested/detained. It does not appear that there were the 100,000+ protestors that used to show up; and it does not appear that the strike, which was called for on 26 October, has taken hold. So for now, it appears that Lukashenko
- ["Our enemies generally shoot first 80 percent of the time"](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/12/our-enemies-generally-shoot-first-80-percent-of-the-time/) - Someone just asked me about a quote in the following article:https://breakingdefense.com/2020/11/army-wants-smaller-brigades-stronger-divisions-lots-of-robots/ The quote is: "Historical data on direct-fire engagements “shows that our enemies generally shoot first 80 percent of the time,” Sando said. “We don’t like those odds, [so] we want to avoid the close fight if we can. If we can’t avoid it, we
- [Disputed Elections - week 13](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/09/disputed-elections-week-13/) - Well, from this very distant and poorly informed vantage point, things do not look good for the protest movement in Belarus. Tens of thousands protested again this weekend, but Lukashenko has detained or arrested more than 800 protestors and maybe more than a thousand. He has been arresting 200-300 each week, but this appears to
- [The Timeless Verities of Combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2016/05/23/the-timeless-verities-of-combat/) - James Jay Carafano, historian and Vice President for Foreign and Defense Policy at the Heritage Foundation, recently issued a call for the U.S. defense community to back off debates over "the latest doctrinal flavor of the month" and return to a focus on the classic principles of war. "Most modern military doctrine should be scrapped,"
- [Jeschonnek's Suicide - 18 August 1943](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/05/jeschonneks-suicide-18-august-1943/) - General Hans Jeschonnek, the Chief of Staff of the Luftwaffe, committed suicide on 18 August 1943. This account has been garbled in a number of books, so here is my current write-up on the story: Post-Mortem General Hans Jeschonnek’s attempts to escape to the field by taking over command of the Fourth Air Fleet had
- [Speaking of Disputed Elections (Belarus - week 12)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/03/speaking-of-disputed-elections-belarus-week-12/) - Nothing really new to report. Same-old-same-old. Tens of thousands of protestors this weekend, a couple of hundred protestors arrested, and the situation continues as before. It does not appear that either side is making much progress. It is not ramping up to push Lukashenko from power, and it is not dying down. On the other
- [Losses in latest Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/11/02/losses-in-latest-nagorno-karabakh-conflict/) - Below is an article on the counts of losses from Nagorno-Karabakh. It is based upon viewing of drone footage, etc. by individuals some distance from the conflict. The numbers should be viewed with considerable caution. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2020/09/the-fight-for-nagorno-karabakh.html They state: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore,
- [Waffen-SS Tiger Crews At Kursk](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/31/waffen-ss-tiger-crews-at-kursk/) - Just wanted to make you aware of a book that has just been released written by Col. French L. Maclean (USA, ret.) called "Waffen-SS Tiger Crews at Kursk" (Schiffer Military, Atlen, PA, 2020). I am graciously listed in his acknowledgements, although my involvement was minimal (a few emails exchanged and one long pleasant meeting for
- [Tank losses in Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/30/tank-losses-in-azerbaijan-armenia-conflict/) - In case you have been distracted by all the U.S. news lately, there has been a significant conflict for the last month between Azerbaijan-Armenia over Nogorno-Karabakh that resulted in dozens of tanks lost, many due to drones and loitering munitions. This is conventional war. We have not done any systematic analysis of this, so I
- [Continued Protests in Belarus - week 11](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/27/continued-protests-in-belarus-week-11/) - Well, week 11 in Belarus and no clear resolution. It looks like this could drag on for a while. They did put up tens of thousands (maybe 100,000) protestors on Sunday and did start strikes on Monday. It does not appear that the strikes are universal. To quote from a couple of accounts: BBC News
- [Continued Protests in Belarus - week 10](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/23/continued-protests-in-belarus-week-10/) - This coming week may get dramatic. On the morning of 13 October Svetlana Tikhanovksaya, the main opposition leader, issued out a statement: “The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites: Lukashenko must announce his resignation. Street violence must stop completely. All political prisoners must be released. If our demands are not met by October
- [TDI and the TNDM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/19/tdi-and-the-tndm/) - The Dupuy Institute does occasionally make use of a combat model developed by Trevor Dupuy called the Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model (TNDM). That model is a development of his older model the Quantified Judgment Model (QJM). There is an impression, because the QJM is widely known, that the TNDM is heavily involved in our
- [War by Numbers on JSTOR](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/17/war-by-numbers-on-jstor/) - I really have no idea who JSTOR is or what they do, but I stumbled across my book War by Numbers listed on JSTOR along with a quote taken from each chapter. Not sure who picked these quotes or why. I had nothing to do with this. The link is here: https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt1wvwdp8
- [Continued Protests in Belarus - week 9](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/13/continued-protests-in-belarus-week-9/) - Another week of protests in Belarus. Things are starting to take a more serious and darker turn. The EU has imposed sanctions directly on Lukashenko, Russia has put the Belarussian opposition leader (Svetlana Tikhanovskaya) on their wanted list, based upon charges against her by Belarus. She is currently residing in Lithuania, an EU and NATO
- [Continued Protests in Belarus - week 8](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/06/continued-protests-in-belarus-week-8/) - Well, the protests continue for another week. Another tens of thousands protesters in Minsk, another 300+ people detained/arrested. The Belarus police claim 10,000 protestors. Other groups claim nearly 120,000. The pictures seem to support a higher estimate and the police had to turn water cannon on them in Minsk (pictured above). The EU did sanction
- [Episode Nungesser](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/05/episode-nungesser/) - Found a description of Nungesser's fight in the French History of the Second Hussar Regiment published in 1920. This is the follow-up to this post: https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/09/29/nungessers-first-battle/ The episode occurred on 31 August/1 September 1914. The previous entry was 29 August (page 34), the next entry was dated 2 September. Here is the translated account (according
- [Armor Attrition in Nagorno-Karabakh](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/10/02/armor-attrition-in-nagorno-karabakh/) - Over the last week fighting has erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh is an area of Azerbaijan that broke away from Azerbaijan with the help of Armenia when the Soviet Union was breaking up in 1991. They went to war over it in 1991-92 and Nagorno-Karabakh declared itself the independent
- [Nungesser's first battle](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/09/29/nungessers-first-battle/) - Charles Nungesser (1892-1927) became the third highest scoring ace in French service during World War I with 43 claimed kills (3 shared). In 1914, he was with the 2nd Regiment of Hussars. His first fight was a ground skirmish behind the lines. His actual citation reads: "Brigadier [Corporal] of the 2nd Light Cavalry Regiment, on
- [Continued Protests in Belarus - week 7](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/09/28/continued-protests-in-belarus-week-7/) - Yesterday was the 50th day of protests. Through various twitter accounts one can see all the protests throughout the country. They are widespread and the protesters are clearly dawn from all parts of society and all age groups. Lots of large protests in small towns. News reports are saying "about" 100,000 protesters in Minsk and
- [Continued Protests in Belarus - week 6](https://dupuyinstitute.org/2020/09/21/continued-protests-in-belarus-week-6/) - Well sizable protests continued this weekend in Belarus, although they may not be as big as before. May have been less then 100,000 people. News reports are saying tens of thousands, while one opposition paper is claiming 150,000. The Belarus police claim 20,000 protestors all over the country. As both sides are expected to over/under

## Pages

- [Home](https://dupuyinstitute.org/) - The Dupuy Institute Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis Conference:HAAC 2025 Conference:HAAC 2026 About TDI The Dupuy Institute is an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military campaigns.
- [HAAC 2026: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/haac-2026-fifth-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac/) - October 2026 Tysons Corner, VA Right outside Washington, D.C. The Dupuy Institute Presents: The Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Register The Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Hosted by The Dupuy Institute, the annual Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) brings together leading experts from across the world to discuss modern warfare's most pressing questions. Purpose:
- [HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/haac-2025-fourth-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac/) - 21-23 October, 2025 Tysons Corner, VA Right outside Washington, D.C. The Dupuy Institute Presents: The Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Register The Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Hosted by The Dupuy Institute, the annual Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) brings together leading experts from across the world to discuss modern warfare's most pressing questions.
- [HAAC 2024: Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8-10 October 2024](https://dupuyinstitute.org/haac-2024-third-historical-analysis-annual-conference-haac-8-10-october-2024/) - 8-10 October, 2024 Tysons Corner, VA Right outside Washington, D.C. The Dupuy Institute Presents: The Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Register The Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Hosted by The Dupuy Institute, the annual Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) brings together leading experts from across the world to discuss modern warfare's most pressing questions.
- [Publications](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/) - The Dupuy Institute has a large archive of reports available in print. Reproductions of the reports may be purchased for a small fee by making a written request to TDI. A limited selection of TDI reports are available online in PDF. In addition, TDI has stocks of a selection of classic works in military history
- [Books](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/) - Classic military history books available for sale - from The Dupuy Institute
- [test](https://dupuyinstitute.org/blog/test/) - 1
- [About Mystics & Statistics](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/about-mystics-statistics/) - Welcome all to the Mystics & Statistics blog. It is a blog intended to specifically look at quantitative historical analysis. While we have a strong interest in history, our interest it not just to record facts and figures, or to study history for history's sake, but our interest is two-fold: 1) to be able quantify
- [Comment Policy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/comment-policy/) - The Dupuy Institute welcomes comments and discussions on Mystics & Statistics. We appreciate honest and spirited debate, but ask that it be done in a respectful and civil manner. Pointed critiques are fine, but we ask that partisan politics be left at the door. All comments will be moderated and The Dupuy Institute reserves the
- [Products](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/) - Tactical, Numerical, Deterministic Model (TNDM) The TNDM is a quick-reaction, inexpensive, computer-assisted mathematical simulation of air-land combat. It is suitable for planning, for analysis, and for examining a variety of combat situations, ranging from a small-unit, low-intensity combat action, to multi-day corps or army conventional battles. Learn more DUWAR Series Databases These databases document hundreds
- [Links](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/links/) - Newly released: Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka by Christopher A. Lawrence Book reviews and discussions: Did I Just Write the Largest History Book Ever? (long version) Did I Just Write the Largest History Book Ever? (short version on History News Network) America's Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam by Christopher A. Lawrence Book reviews:
- [Abbreviations and Acronyms](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/abbreviations-and-acronyms/) - ACDA = Arms Control & Disarmament AgencyAFS&A or AFSA = Air Force Studies and Analysis AFSC = Air Force Staff College AU = The American University CAA = US Army Concepts Analysis Agency or Center for Army Analysis [name change occurred in 1999] CIA = Central Intelligence Agency DIA = Defense Intelligence Agency DNA =
- [Trevor Dupuy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/trevor-dupuy/) - Col. Trevor Nevitt Dupuy Arlington, Virginia, 2 June 1995Col. Dupuy passed away the following day.Photograph by New Zealand artist Gary S. Schofield. Books Articles My personal feeling is that if I have done anything worthwhile, it is in military theory and the relationship of the elements of historical experience to theory.Trevor N. Dupuy by Susan
- [Methodology](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/methodology/) - The Dupuy Institute Methodology: is a systematic, structured, scientific examination of the record of past experience; it emphasizes the interrelationship of quantitative and qualitative historical data; and it employs an actuarial approach to the analysis of quantitative historical data to discern trends in data relationships.
- [Capabilities](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/capabilities/) - The Dupuy Institute has the following capabilities: Comparison of fighting capabilities of opposing forces (systemic strengths and weaknesses) based upon: Command and organizational arrangements, leadership, force structure, intelligence, and logistics; Training, cultural and psychological profiles, and flow of information; Doctrinal flexibility or constraints in utilizing new weapons and technologies. Validation of models or simulations and
- [Mission Statement](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/mission/) - The Dupuy Institute leverages military history utilizing quantitative historical analysis methods, including unique combat databases and validated combat models, to examine patterns and trends in combat, conduct predictive analysis, and examine issues related to U.S. national security and the larger issues of war and peace. Four principles characterize the mission of The Dupuy Institute: a
- [Corporate Officers](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/officers/) - Founder: Col. Trevor N. Dupuy President and Executive Director: Christopher A. Lawrence Board of Directors (2014): Maj. Gen. Nicholas Krawciw, US Army (ret.), Chairman Christopher A. Lawrence Brian McCue, Ph.D. William McLaughlin Col. Robert Sims, Ph.D., US Air Force (ret.) James G. Taylor III, Ph.D. Eugene P. Visco Abraham Wolf, Ph.D.
- [Contact](https://dupuyinstitute.org/contact/)
- [About](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/) - The Dupuy Institute is an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military campaigns. In tribute to what Colonel Trevor N. Dupuy pioneered, and in an effort to pursue
- [The Ardennes Campaign Simulation Database - ACSDB](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/other-databases/acsdb/) - CREATED: 1987 - 90 by DMSI REVISIONS: None DESCRIPTION: Tracks personnel strengths and losses, equipment strength and losses by type, unit locations, logistics, etc. for every division-sized unit for every day of the Ardennes Campaign from 16 December 1944 to 16 January 1945 SIZE: Entire data base, including supporting programs, is 46.282 Megabytes in 205
- [The Kursk Database - KDB](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/other-databases/kursk/) - CREATED: 1993 - 96 by TDI. Available on CD ROM from CAA for the March 1996 version of the database. REVISIONS: Since March 1996, TDI has independently proofed and revised the database. DESCRIPTION: Tracks personnel strengths and losses, equipment strength and losses by type, unit locations, logistics, etc. for every division-sized unit for every day
- [The Battles Database - BaDB](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/duwar-databases/badb/) - CREATED: 2001 at TDI REVISIONS: A moderate proofing and expansion effort planned for the second half of this year. DESCRIPTION: Covers battles from 1600 - 1900. All are from 1 to 4 days in length (2 exceptions). SIZE: .922 megabytes NUMBER OF FIELDS: 97 NUMBER OF RECORDS: 243 LANGUAGE: Access OWNERSHIP: Property of TDI PROGRAM
- [The Small Scale Contingency Operations (SSCO) Database](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/duwar-databases/ssco/) - CREATED: 2000 - 2001 by TDI REVISIONS: None currently scheduled. It is eventually intended that the existing work be completed and the database be expanded to 250 operations. DESCRIPTION: The SSCO provides a detailed description of a range of small scale contingencies operations, interventions, small wars and peacekeeping operations from 1944 to 2001. SIZE: 1.434
- [The Small Action Database - SADB](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/duwar-databases/sadb/) - CREATED: 2001 by TDI REVISIONS: None planned DESCRIPTION: Covers small-actions (below company level), usually one or less days in length. SIZE: .194 megabytes NUMBER OF FIELDS: 121 NUMBER OF RECORDS: 2 LANGUAGE: Access OWNERSHIP: Property of TDI PROGRAM MANAGER: Christopher A. Lawrence PRIMARY WORKERS:L. Jay Karamales (Programming; 2 Engagements.) USED FOR: n/a NOTES: n/a
- [The Battalion-Level Operations Data base (BLODB)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/duwar-databases/blodb/) - CREATED: 1995 - 97 by TDI REVISIONS: Need to transfer engagements from the Reflex version to the Access version. Work started in 1997 on a Phase II set of battles (112 battles). DESCRIPTION: Covers battalion-level engagements, usually one or less days in length, 1914 to 1989. SIZE: .164 megabytes. NUMBER OF FIELDS: 121 NUMBER OF
- [The Division-Level Engagements Database - DLEDB](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/duwar-databases/dledb/) - CREATED: 2000-2001 by TDI REVISIONS: As a result of on-going studies, in particular the Medium Weight Armor Study and the Urban Warfare Study, we expect this database to be further expanded. DESCRIPTION: Covers division-level engagement from 1 to 6 days in length (6 exceptions), 1904 to 1991 SIZE: 2.590 megabytes. NUMBER OF FIELDS: 121 NUMBER
- [The Campaign Database - CaDB](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/duwar-databases/cadb/) - CREATED: Created 1998 - 99 by TDI REVISIONS: As a result of on-going studies, in particular the Medium Weight Armor Study and the Urban Warfare Study, we expect this database to be further expanded. DESCRIPTION: Tracks the conditions and details of army-level operations of 5 to 60 days in length. SIZE: .866 megabytes NUMBER OF
- [The Warfare, Armed Conflict and Contingency Operations Database - WACCO](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/duwar-databases/wacco/) - CREATED: 1997 by TDI REVISIONS: None planned DESCRIPTION: Provides a brief description of all conflicts that involved the loss of more than 20 lives from 1898 to 1998. SIZE: .304 megabytes NUMBER OF FIELDS: 40 NUMBER OF RECORDS: 793 LANGUAGE: Access OWNERSHIP: Property of TDI PROGRAM MANAGER: Christopher A. Lawrence PRIMARY WORKERS: L. Jay Karamales
- [DUWAR Series Databases](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/duwar-databases/) - The Dupuy Institute has a number of databases available. The DuWAR Series of databases consists of the following: Warfare, Armed Conflict and Contingency Operations (WACCO) Campaign Database (CaDB) Division-Level Engagement Database (DLEDB) Battalion-Level Operations Database (BLODB) Small Action Database (SADB) Small Scale Contingency Operations Database (SSCO) Battles Database (BaDB) For more information please contact TDI.
- [R. Ernest Dupuy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/trevor-dupuy/r-ernest-dupuy/) - PUBLISHED BOOKS BY R. ERNEST DUPUY IF WAR COMES (with George Fielding Eliot). Published by Macmillan, 1938 WHERE THEY HAVE TROD. Published by Stokes, 1940 WORLD IN ARMS. Published by Cassell's, 1940 CIVIL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES (with Hodding Carter). Published by Farrar & Rinehart, 1942 ST. VITH; LION IN THE WAY. Published by
- [Articles](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/trevor-dupuy/articles/) - ARTICLES BY TREVOR N. DUPUY A-10 Advance Rates in Combat. A-55 Casualty Forecasts, Attrition Anderson's War Toll Estimate Wildly Inaccurate. Published in The Washington Post, Nov. 7, 1990. A-80 Compiling Engagement Data for the Arab-Israeli Wars (with Col. John A.C. Andrews). A-110 Armaments; Nuclear & Chemical Weapons in the XXth Century; Political and Strategic Aspects. A-120
- [Books](https://dupuyinstitute.org/about/trevor-dupuy/books/) - PUBLISHED BOOKS BY TREVOR N. DUPUY TO THE COLORS; THE WAY OF LIFE OF AN ARMY OFFICER (with R.E. Dupuy), Chicago, 1942 FAITHFUL AND TRUE; HISTORY OF THE 5TH FIELD ARTILLERY, Schwabisch-Hall, Germany, 1949 CAMPAIGNS OF THE FRENCH REVOLUTION AND OF NAPOLEON, Cambridge, MA, 1956 BRAVE MEN AND GREAT CAPTAINS (with R. E. Dupuy), New York,
- [TNDM & QJM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/tndm-qjm/) - The Dupuy Institute believes that the Tactical, Numerical, Deterministic Model (TNDM) is able to forecast what is likely to occur in combat at least as well as any other combat model in use today. Origins The Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model (TNDM) is an empirically based combat model with a database derived from historical research. It was
- [Ordering Information](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/ordering-information/) - The price of the books available for sale are listed beside each book. Some of the books in stock have been damaged and these copies are available for a discount. Please contact Chris Lawrence at TDI to confirm the condition and cost of damaged copies of books. We do have scanned copies of the reports (as PDF files)
- [TDI Reports Online](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/tdi-reports-online/) - E-4. Capture Rate Study Phases I and II Final Report (March 6, 2000) (CAA) (2 Vol.) - Pages: 222 E-5. Measuring Human Factors in Combat - Part of the Enemy Prisoner of War Capture Rate Study (August 31, 2000), (CAA) - Pages: 45 E-6. Capture Rate Study: Phase III: Post-World War II Capture Rates (November
- [TDI Reports](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/tdi-reports/) - TDI Reports 1992-Present A-1. Road Map for Developing a Comprehensive Wargame Utilizing Historical Experience and Data (Jun. 1993) (AFSC) - Pages: 13 A-2. Air Model Historical Data Study Phase I Report (Jan. 1995) - Pages: 109 A-3. Air Model Historical Data Study (Statement of Work) (Aug. 1995) - Pages: 30 A-4. Air Model Historical Data
- [TNDM Newsletter](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/tndm-newsletter/) - International TNDM Newsletter Vol. 1, No. 1 (August 1996): TNDM Casualty Forcasting in Bosnia, TNDM Revision History, Simulating Suppression, How the TNDM Measures Fortifications. Vol. 1, No. 2 (October 1996): Goose Green/Darwin 28 May 1982, Planned Improvements to the TNDM, Developing a Logistics Module for the TNDM, Validation of the TNDM at Battalion Level, What
- [TNDA Reports](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/tnda-reports/) - TNDA Reports 1990-1992 125. Current Military Trends in Historical Perspective (1990) (Boeing) - Pages: 277 126. Report on Pre-war Forecasting (1991) - Pages: 3 127. Estimates of Possible U.S. Casualties in a War Between United Nations Forces and Iraq (1991)(AFBA) - Pages: NA 128. Estimates of Possible U.S. Battle Casualties in Three Excursions of Gulf
- [HERO/DMSI Reports](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-dmsi-reports/) - HERO/DMSI Reports 1985-1990 100. The QJM Data Base (3 volumes) (1985) - Pages: 1199 101. Implications of the Present Knowledge and Past Experience for a Possible Future Chemical/Conventional Conflict (1985) (IDA) - Pages: 150 Details. 102. Impact of the Introduction of Lethal Gas on Combat Performance of Defending Troops (2 volumes) (1985) (DNA) - Pages: 131 Details.
- [HERO/TNDA Reports](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/) - HERO/TNDA Reports 1977-1984 58. Assessment of the Danger of Surprise Attack in Europe, and NATO Vulnerability to Surprise (1977) (AFSA) - Pages: 91 59. Historical Scenarios of Soviet Breakthrough Efforts in World War II (1977) (AFSA) - Pages: 159 60. Availability of Historical Data Concerning Soviet Air Defense Experience (1978) (Sandia) - Pages: NA 61.
- [HERO Reports](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/) - HERO Reports 1962-1977 1. A Preliminary, Interpretive Survey of the History of Command and Control (2 Volumes) (1963) (Sandia) - Pages: 113 2. History and Urban Education: A Five-City Survey Plan, 1964-1965 (Encyclopedia Britannica) (1964) - Pages: 102 3. Responses to Violations of Arms Control and Disarmament Agreements (Vols I-IV Unclassified; Vol V, Top Secret
- [Understanding War: History and Theory of Combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/understanding-war-history-and-theory-of-combat/) - Understanding War: History and Theory of Combat. The highly acclaimed sequel to Numbers, Predictions and War. by Colonel T. N. Dupuy. This book is a sustained and rigorously argued attempt to put forward a general theory of military combat, one which will be valid across history and potent in its implications for strategies and tactics
- [Other Databases](https://dupuyinstitute.org/products/other-databases/) - The Dupuy Institute has a number of databases available. A list of the DuWAR Series of databases is available here. In addition, the following databases, based on earlier studies, are maintained: Kursk Database (KDB) Ardennes Campaign Simulation Database (ACSDB) For more information please contact TDI.
- [Examination of Historical Air Defense Performance (1988)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-dmsi-reports/122-examination-of-historical-air-defense-performance-1988/) - Study to analyze the most capable air defenses ever fielded to determine trends and aspects of air defense which can be used for future analyses. 86 pages.
- [The Relationship Between Technology Trends and the size and Composition of Military Forces. (1987)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-dmsi-reports/118-the-relationship-between-technology-trends-and-the-size-and-composition-of-military-forces-1987/) - An exploration of the effects of technology changes, particularly since the middle of the 19th Century, upon the size and composition of military forces, particularly ground forces. 85 pages.
- [New Engagement Data for the Breakpoint Data Base. (1988)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-dmsi-reports/117b-new-engagement-data-for-the-breakpoint-data-base-1988/) - Used to augment the "Breakpoints" data base with additional examples of forced posture change, especially to provide engagements involving units smaller than divisions. 80 pages.
- [Forced Changes of Posture. (Breakpoints) (1988)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-dmsi-reports/117-forced-changes-of-posture-breakpoints-1988/) - A study to determine the causes of and relationships governing forced changes of tactical posture by military units in combat, for the purpose of improving the representation of transitions from one tactical posture to another in Army combat simulations and wargames. 256 pages.
- [Defeat Criteria Seminar](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-dmsi-reports/112-defeat-criteria-seminar/) - Defeat Criteria Seminar, Seminar Papers on the Evaluation of the Criteria for Defeat in Battle (12 June 1987) (Sandia) - pages 110 Conducted to provide greater understanding for defeat criteria to establish the basis for improving the manner in which most computer models of combat represent combat outcomes or results. Includes presentations by Hugh M. Cole,
- [Mission Accomplishment by Divisions and their Component Elements: A feasibility Study. (1987)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-dmsi-reports/110-mission-accomplishment-by-divisions-and-their-component-elements-a-feasibility-study-1987/) - This study examines the feasibility of using historical data and methodology to determine the effect of the success or failure of a combat battalion upon the success or failure of its parent division. 54 pages.
- [A Methodology for Estimating Emergency Communication Requirements for a Situation "D" Emergency (1985)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-dmsi-reports/109-a-methodology-for-estimating-emergency-communication-requirements-for-a-situation-d-emergency-1985/) - Prepared for Naval Postgraduate School. Covers communications requirements, a simple most critical infrastructure system before, during, and after a nuclear attack on the United States of America. 42 pages.
- [Cold Weather Combat: Analogies to Chemical Combat (1985)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-dmsi-reports/108-cold-weather-combat-analogies-to-chemical-combat-1985/) - This study identifies characteristics of cold weather combat (combat in temperatures of -20 degrees F and below with heavy accumulation of snow) that are closely similar or relevant to combat in chemical environment. It then identifies techniques that have been used to cope with the cold weather combat characteristics, and that may be applicable to
- [Impact of the Introduction of Lethal Gas on the Combat Performance of Defending Troops (1985)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-dmsi-reports/102-impact-of-the-introduction-of-lethal-gas-on-the-combat-performance-of-defending-troops-1985/) - This study investigates the impact of the early use of lethal gas as a new weapon on the combat performance of troops in defense in World War I. The combat performance of troops in closely similar British Regular Army infantry divisions in nine engagements in 1915 was quantitatively assessed for pregas, gas and postgas engagements.
- [Implications of Present Knowledge and Past Experience for a Possible Future Chemical/ Conventional Conflict (1984)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-dmsi-reports/101-implications-of-present-knowledge-and-past-experience-for-a-possible-future-chemical-conventional-conflict-1984/) - This report, for the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (Chemical Matters), is based upon papers prepared by an interdisciplinary group of knowledgeable scholars, and discussion of these papers at an unclassified conference of specialists in modern chemical and biological warfare. 150 pages.
- [Historical Survey of Casualties in Different Size Units in Modern Combat (1982)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/099-historical-survey-of-casualties-in-different-size-units-in-modern-combat-1982/) - Prepared for US Army (TRADOC). Personnel attrition data for two World War II engagements on division, regimental, and battalion level as to daily strength, battle casualties, disease, non-battle injuries, and total casualties. 90 pages.
- [Analysis of Factors that have Influenced the Outcomes of Battles and Wars (1983)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/095-analysis-of-factors-that-have-influenced-the-outcomes-of-battles-and-wars-1983/) - Performed for the US Army Concepts Analysis Agency, this study is a comprehensive compilation of data on 600 land battles between 1600 and 1973, including judgmental assessment of factors related to battle outcomes, plus a preliminary analysis of the data. 6 volumes, 1174 pages.
- [093 Physical Damage and Casualties in Conventional Battle (1982)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/093-physical-damage-and-casualties-in-conventional-battle-1982/) - Three operations in World War II were studied to assess physical damage and military and civilian casualties. The three operations are St. Lo, Operation Goodwood in Normandy, and Aachen-Geilenkirchen in Germany. Additionally, an attempt has been made to relate ammunition expenditures to the level of damage assessed. 66 pages.
- [Modern Artillery Experience in Combat (1983)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/092-modern-artillery-experience-in-combat-1983/) - Prepared for US Army Artillery School. Analyzes artillery experience in World War II and 1973 Arab-Israeli War. Emphasis is on weapons and personnel attrition, effects of artillery fired and trends in Western and Soviet doctrine. 500 pages, 2 volumes.
- [Naval QJM Feasibility Study (1982)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/091-naval-qjm-feasibility-study-1982/) - The study reviews available data for feasibility of a naval TNDM methodology. Modern experience of naval surface warfare in World War I and surface-air-subsurface operations in World War II is analyzed to determine if a naval surface battle of World War I could be replicated and for more sophisticated World War II operations could be
- [Conventional Attrition & Battle Termination Criteria: A Study of War Termination (1980)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/090-conventional-attrition-battle-termination-criteria-a-study-of-war-termination-1980/) - This study, prepared for the Defense Nuclear Agency, examines the termination of three short, post-1945 wars. A survey of the literature on war termination is included. 82 pages.
- [The 88th Division in World War II: Factors Responsible for its Excellence (1981)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/088-the-88th-division-in-world-war-ii-factors-responsible-for-its-excellence-1981/) - This study was prepared for the Assistant Secretary of Defense (MRA&L). The study examines the record of the 88th Infantry Division from its formation until the end of World War II. The 88th Division was rated as one of the best, if not the best, US division in World War II. This study examines why
- [Mobilization of US Reserve Forces in the Korean Conflict (1982)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/087-mobilization-of-us-reserve-forces-in-the-korean-conflict-1982/) - Detailed description of the mobilization, training, deployment, and performance of Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps reserve units activated during the Korean War. Prepared for the Assistant Secretary of Defense (MRA&L), this study is based on extensive research and original documents, including operations journals of more than 50 of the units involved.
- [Personnel Replacement Studies Analytic Survey of Personnel Replacement Systems in Modern War (1982)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/086-personnel-replacement-studies-analytic-survey-of-personnel-replacement-systems-in-modern-war-1982/) - Prepared for the United States Army, this report provides detailed qualitative surveys of the British Army in World War II and the US Army in World War II, Korea, and Vietnam. Includes much quantitative data and comparisons with German and Soviet practices. 204 pages.
- [US Home Defense Forces (1981)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/083-us-home-defense-forces-1981/) - This study was performed for the Assistant Secretary of Defense (MRA&L). The study provides the first and only detailed account of the forces raised by the states to maintain order when their National Guard units were mobilized into federal service during World War I, World War II, and the Korean War. 127 pages.
- [The Factors of Combat (1980)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/082-the-factors-of-combat-1980/) - This report was prepared for the Defense Nuclear Agency. Sixty-six ground combat engagements in World War II and the 1973 Arab-Israeli War were analyzed to determine the factors which, acting on one another, determined the outcomes of the engagements. 48 pages.
- [Soldier Capability, Army Combat Effectiveness (SCACE): Historical Combat Data and Analysis (1980)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/081-soldier-capability-army-combat-effectiveness-scace-historical-combat-data-and-analysis-1980/) - Performed in support of the United States Army Soldier Support Center, this study seeks to clarify the relationship between the capability of individual soldiers and the combat effectiveness of the units to which they belong. Based on historical and psychological literature. 58 pages.
- [Relevance of Selected Nonnuclear Experience to Possible Future Employment of Nuclear Weapons (1980)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/080-relevance-of-selected-nonnuclear-experience-to-possible-future-employment-of-nuclear-weapons-1980/) - The purpose of this study, performed for the Defense Nuclear Agency, was to see if the study of non-nuclear catastrophes could be useful in establishing doctrine for nuclear warfare. Several man-made and natural disasters were examined in detail and compared to potential tactical nuclear weapons effects. 38 pages.The purpose of this study, performed for the
- [The Soviet Threat in the Middle East: Perceptions in the Region (1979)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/077-the-soviet-threat-in-the-middle-east-perceptions-in-the-region-1979/) - Based on interviews with key officials and private citizens in Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria, this report presents a summary and analysis of regional perceptions of the Soviet move to exert influence in the Middle East. The report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense. 170 pages.
- [The Preparedness Debate, 1914-1916 (1980)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/075-the-preparedness-debate-1914-1916-1980/) - This report provides a generalized account of the debate on United States military policy on the eve of World War I. The report was prepared for the Office of Secretary of Defense. It covers the issue of volunteers versus draftees. 21 pages.
- [German and Allied Reserves in 1914 (1980)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/074-german-and-allied-reserves-in-1914-1980/) - This study, prepared for the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs, assesses the organization, training, readiness, and combat performance of German, French, and British army reserves in 1914. Selected battle narratives are used to illustrate the way in which the reserves were used. Conclusions on the effectiveness of reserves and the methods used
- [A Historical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Tactical Air Operations Against and in Support of Armored Forces (1980)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/072-a-historical-analysis-of-the-effectiveness-of-tactical-air-operations-against-and-in-support-of-armored-forces-1980/) - This study was performed for the Sandia Corporation. It examines selected data from World War II, Korea, and the Arab-Israeli Wars to determine how tactical air forces were employed against armored units. Instances in which air forces defeated the armored force were found. Tentative conclusions on effectiveness of air attacks were drawn. 114 pages.
- [The Value of Field Fortifications in Modern Warfare (1980)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/071-the-value-of-field-fortifications-in-modern-warfare-1980/) - This study was prepared for the Defense Nuclear Agency. The functions, performance, and effects of field fortifications in 14 combat operations in World War II and the Middle East are examined in detail. In addition, four variants of the defense of the US V Corps sector against Soviet attack are analyzed to determine the quantitative
- [Historical Trends in Artillery Vulnerability (1979)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/068-historical-trends-in-artillery-vulnerability-1979/) - This study, prepared for the Sandia Laboratories, examines data from World War II and the 1973 Arab-Israeli War to determine trends in losses of artillery weapons in combat. Artillery losses are related to personnel losses. Detailed data included. 84 pages.
- [The German General Staff (1978)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/067-the-german-general-staff-1978/) - This monograph was prepared for the President's Committee on National Command Structure. It expands on A Genius for War by Trevor N. Dupuy. The report evaluates the operations of the Prussian-German General Staff and relates that experience to US practice. 79 pages.
- [Observations on Defense Against the V-1 Missile (1978)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/066-observations-on-defense-against-the-v-1-missile-1978/) - This study summarizes available data on the defense against V-1 missiles employed in London and Antwerp in World War II. 18 pages.
- [Effects of Combat Losses and Fatigue on Operational Performance (1978)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/065-effects-of-combat-losses-and-fatigue-on-operational-performance-1978/) - This study relates personnel losses to losses of major weapons and discusses the effects of prolonged combat on the effectiveness of the unit. Data is from US, British, Soviet, and German experience in World War II and Arab and Israeli experiences in 1973. 133 pages.
- [Search for Historical Records of High Rate Artillery Fire in Combat Situations (1978)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-tnda-reports/062-search-for-historical-records-of-high-rate-artillery-fire-in-combat-situations-1978/) - This study was prepared for the United States Army. It consists of a search of World War II and Korean War experience for instances in which surge firing of artillery occurred. Detailed data on firing rates is included. Factors affecting the high rate situation are analyzed. 44 pages.
- [Artillery Survivability in Modern War (1976)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/artillery-survivability-in-modern-war-1976/) - This study is a survey performed for the Sandia Laboratories to ascertain the availability of data on artillery losses in World War II and the Arab-Israeli Wars. 24 pages.
- [Comparative Analysis: Arab and Israeli Combat Performance, 1967 and 1973 Wars (1976)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/comparative-analysis-arab-and-israeli-combat-performance-1967-and-1973-wars-1976/) - A brief, yet insightful, quantitative analysis of Arab and Israeli combat performance in two of the Middle East's most significant conflicts. 28 pages.
- [A Study of Breakthrough Operations (1976)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/a-study-of-breakthrough-operations-1976/) - This is a survey of 14 combat operations of World War I, World War II, and the Arab-Israeli Wars in which breakthroughs occurred. Force characteristics advantageous to achieving a breakthrough were identified. 208 pages.
- [A Survey of Quick Wins in Modern War (1980)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/a-survey-of-quick-wins-in-modern-war-1980/) - This study, prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, is a survey of examples from recent wars or campaigns which resulted in a "quick win" (5 examples), "almost quick win" (3), and stalemate (3). Factors which were present in each kind of outcome were determined, and their importance assessed. 119 pages.
- [The Middle East War of October 1973 in Historical Perspective (1976)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/the-middle-east-war-of-october-1973-in-historical-perspective-1976/) - Prepared for the Office of Net Assessment, this report attempts to relate the October 1973 war with historical objectivity, and in consideration of differing points of view. It attempts to cover the normally neglected areas of the war such as evaluation of combat performance in relation to training, organization and doctrine. 190 pages.
- [German and Soviet Replacement Systems in World War II (1980)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/german-and-soviet-replacement-systems-in-world-war-ii-1980/) - Prepared for the ASD (M&RA), this study examined the German and Soviet personnel replacement systems in World War II as they were planned and as they actually functioned. Numerical data included. 126 pages.
- [Historical Evaluation of Barrier Effectiveness (1974)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/historical-evaluation-of-barrier-effectiveness-1974/) - Performed for the United States Army Concepts Analysis Agency, this study analyzes the effectiveness of barriers in four combat engagements in World War II, involving US, German, and Soviet forces. Barrier doctrine of the nations studied was examined, and the effects of barriers derived from quantitative analysis of the historical data. 210 pages.
- [Analysis of Operational Criteria and User Requirements of a Naval Air Reporting System (1974)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/analysis-of-operational-criteria-and-user-requirements-of-a-naval-air-reporting-system-1974/) - This study, prepared for the Center for Naval Analyses, surveyed the organization and operation of US Naval air reporting systems, including the use of data generated in the system. The work is based on systems used in the Vietnam War. 100 pages.
- [Rates of Expenditure of Ammunition in Relation to Posture (1972)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/rates-of-expenditure-of-ammunition-in-relation-to-posture-1972/) - This study, for the SHAPE Technical Center, includes detailed data on the consumption of ammunition in six World War II operations. The consumption rates are related to combat posture and other factors to provide insights into what has affected ammunition expenditure. 122 pages; large tables.
- [Historical Bibliography of Warfare in the Middle East (1979)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/historical-bibliography-of-warfare-in-the-middle-east-1979/) - This report provides a detailed bibliography of warfare in the Middle East from the reign of Alexander the Great (336 BC) to the Six-Day War (1967). It covers desert, mountain, and amphibious operations. 35 pages.
- [Opposed Rates of Advance of Large Forces in Europe (ORALFORE) (1972)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/opposed-rates-of-advance-of-large-forces-in-europe-oralfore-1972/) - This study was prepared for the US Army. It includes detailed analysis of the advance rates of large forces in six World War II battles. The study includes detailed data on these battles and suggests certain conclusions on historical advance rates and the factors influencing those rates. 318 pages.
- [Tactical Air Interdiction by US Army Air Forces in World War II. (1971-1972)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/tactical-air-interdiction-by-us-army-air-forces-in-world-war-ii-1971-1972/) - 35A. Tactical Air Interdiction, World War II: France (1972) (AFS&A) - Pages: 271. 35A1. Annex to 35A - Pages: 135. 35B. Tactical Air Interdiction, World War II: Germany (1972) (AFS&A) - Pages: 266. 35C. Tactical Air Interdiction, World War II: Italy (1971) (AFS&A) - Pages: 426. Regional Summaries. Each regional report provides a complete summary
- [Air Interdiction Operations in World War II. Campaign Summaries. (1970-1971)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/air-interdiction-operations-in-world-war-ii-campaign-summaries-1970-1971/) - A. Allied Air Interdiction Against Axis Forces in Tunisia, Feb-May, 1943 (1971) (AFS&A) - Pages: 106 B. Allied Air Interdiction for Operation HUSKY (Sicily), May-Aug, 1943 (1971) (AFS&E) - Pages: 136 C. Allied Air Interdiction Against Axis Forces Pre-Invasion, Northwest Europe, 1 March - 5 June, 1944 (1971) (AFS&A) - Pages: 66 D. Allied Air
- [Use of Historical Data in Evaluating Military Effectiveness (1970)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/use-of-historical-data-in-evaluating-military-effectiveness-1970/) - Historical analysis of 34 engagements from World War II in which airpower was a factor. The study was performed for the US Air Force to provide insights on the effect of alternative force mixes on combat effectiveness. 4 volumes, 325 pages.
- [Disruption in Combat (1970)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/disruption-in-combat-1970/) - This study was prepared for the US Air Force to explore and analyze available literature on the effects of disruption of units in combat. Engagements in World War II are used to provide historical examples of this phenomenon. 45 pages.
- [German Evaluation of Allied Air Interdiction in World War II. (1969)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/german-evaluation-of-allied-air-interdiction-in-world-war-ii-1969/) - This is a compilation and synthesis of literature reporting German evaluations of effectiveness of Allied air interdiction. Numerous quotations from German sources. 66 pages.
- [Tactical Air Support in the Volturno Campaign, 1943 (1969)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/tactical-air-support-in-the-volturno-campaign-1943-1969/) - This analysis looks at the XII Tactical Air Command in support of US VI Corps in Italy. Performed for the Assistant Chief of Staff, Studies and Analyses, US Air Force this study uses extensive operational data, including some on German air activity. Included are all close support missions flown by both sides; daily loss summaries;
- [Developing a Methodology to Describe the Relationship of Mobility to Combat Effectiveness (1967)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/developing-a-methodology-to-describe-the-relationship-of-mobility-to-combat-effectiveness-1967/) - This study, undertaken for the Research Analysis Corporation, examines the extent to which mobility historically has been related to the effectiveness of land forces. Twelve sets of campaigns were evaluated, starting with the Mongol wars and extending to World War II. 2 volumes, 110 pages.
- [Average Casualty Rates for War Games, Based on Historical Combat Data (1967)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/average-casualty-rates-for-war-games-based-on-historical-combat-data-1967/) - This study, performed for the Research Analysis Corporation, is in itself historical, as one of the first-known analyses of historic data of attrition related to the posture of defending forces. Numerous oversize tables. 206 pages.
- [National Strategic Concepts and the Changing Nature of Modern War (1966)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/national-strategic-concepts-and-the-changing-nature-of-modern-war-1966/) - This report was prepared for the US Air Force to describe and analyze the impact of modern technological, economic, political, and psychological changes upon US national objectives, policies, and strategies; the principles of war; the nature of war; and concepts of victory. 3 volumes, 788 pages.
- [Wartime Replacement Requirements: Experience for Selected Major Items of Combat Equipment (1966)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/wartime-replacement-requirements-experience-for-selected-major-items-of-combat-equipment-1966/) - This study, prepared for the Research Analysis Corporation, examines equipment loss experience in actual combat. Detailed data was compiled for selected units fighting in World War I, World War II, and the Korean War. A series of case studies related loss experience to posture and other influences. 2 volumes, 500 pages, plus tables.
- [Isolating the Guerilla: Basic Case Studies (1966)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/isolating-the-guerilla-basic-case-studies-1966/) - Performed for the Defense Advanced Projects Agency, this study provides the case studies for the landmark Isolating the Guerilla study. Included are analyses of guerilla warfare in the Napoleonic Wars, The Boer War, and the British counterinsurgeny operations in Malaya (1948-1960). The majority of the emphasis is placed on the French and U.S. experience in
- [Military, Political, and Psychological Implications of Massive Population Casualties in History (1965)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/military-political-and-psychological-implications-of-massive-population-casualties-in-history-1965/) - This study was performed for the US Army. It examines the impact of historical examples involving large numbers of civilian casualties either purposeful or accidental. The significance of these historical examples for modern warfare is discussed. 4 volumes, 905 pages.
- [Origins, History, and Accomplishments of the Army Reserve (1965)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/origins-history-and-accomplishments-of-the-army-reserve-1965/) - This study was prepared for the Chief of the Army Reserve. It reviews the history of centralized reserve and militia policy in the United States in peace and war from Colonial times until 1964. It concentrates on the formation and transition of the Army Reserve up to November 1965. 126 pages.
- [Historical Trends Related to Weapon Lethality (1964)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/hero-reports/historical-trends-related-to-weapon-lethality-1964/) - This study, performed for the US Army, analyzes the relationship between weapons and military doctrine from the 4th Century BC to the end of the Korean War. The study focuses on revolutionary advances in the lethality of weapons and the impact of this increased lethality on battle losses and battle outcome. The process of introduction
- [Rendezvous with Fate](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/rendezvous-with-fate/) - Rendezvous with Fate by Col. Raymond "Chevel" Lallemant, D.F.C. & Bar This is the biography of a Belgian fighter pilot who escaped upon the German invasion, completed his training in England, and joined one of the crack R.A.F. fighter squadrons - 609 at Biggin Hill. Three years later he was 609's commanding officer. (NOVA Publications)
- [The Mudhook Machinegunner](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/the-mudhook-machinegunner/) - The Mudhook Machinegunner by A. C. Mott A personal account of a British Machinegunner in WWI, from April 1917 to Janaury 1919. (The Book Factory) ISBN 0 046995 796, softback, $19.95.
- [Iron Division](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/iron-division/) - Iron Division: The History of the 3rd Division 1809-1989 by Robin McNish, with additional material by Charles Messenger A division history of one of Britian's oldest divisions, which fought in the Peninsula and at Waterloo with Wellington, in Crimea, in South Africa during the Boer War, at Arras during WWI, at Dunkirk and Normandy in
- [Mounted Infantry At War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/mounted-infantry-at-war/) - Mounted Infantry At War by Captain Stratford St. Leger A British account of the Boer War, based on observations and anecdotes of the the author. This book is all the more interesting because of the illustrations, both color and black and white. Captain St. Leger was an impressive artist and produced several beautiful paintings on
- [US Army Uniforms: 1941-1945](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/us-army-uniforms-1941-1945/) - US Army Uniforms: 1941-1945 by John Lyles The U.S. uniform underwent a series of dramatic changes in the period prior to this country's involvement to the end of hostilities in 1945. This book contains 38 photos and fully documents U.S. Army uniforms as worn in various theaters of war ranging from the South Pacific, England,
- [Civil War in Yugoslavia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/civil-war-in-yugoslavia/) - Civil War in Yugoslavia by Edgar O'Ballance Written by a military journalist, Civil War in Yugoslavia not only provides the reader with an understanding of the events of recent years, but also gives considerable background to the events which led up to the war. It is an invaluable resource to understanding the confused and bloody
- [The Powder Keg](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/the-powder-keg/) - The Powder Keg: An Intelligence Officer's Guide to Military Forces in the Middle East 1996-2000 Major General Edward B. Atkeson (USA, Ret) Many books on military balances provide a simple evaluation of the orders of battle or weapon programs with little in the way of serious analysis. The Powder Keg sets a new standard with a thorough
- [The Ramadan War: The Egyptian View](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/the-ramadan-war-the-egyptian-view/) - The Ramadan War: The Egyptian View by Maj. Gen. Hassan el Badri, Maj. Gen. Taha el Magdoub, and Maj. Gen. Mohammed Dia el Din Zohdy Foreword by Colonel T.N. Dupuy A comprehensive military analysis of the war between the Arab nations and Israel in October 1973 written by three senior officers who held important positions
- [The Young Volunteer](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/the-young-volunteer/) - The Young Volunteer by Joseph E. Crowell A Civil War memoir published at the turn of the century, The Young Volunteer is a fascinating account of everyday life in the Union Army. Vividly portraying the boredom of camp life as well as the horror of battle, the story follows Joseph Crowell from his enlistment in
- [Breaching Fortress Europe](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/breaching-fortress-europe/) - Breaching Fortress Europe: The Story of U.S. Engineers in Normandy on D-Day by Sid Berger For the first time ever, the definitive account of the incredible engineering effort behind the largest military invasion in world history. Every historian will want to read the dramatic story of the World War II engineers who helped launch the
- [Numbers, Predictions and War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/numbers-predictions-and-war/) - Numbers, Predictions and War by Colonel T. N. Dupuy This remarkable book is the result of a series of studies undertaken for the U.S. Department of Defense and for the British Defence Operational Analysis Establishment to determine the extent to which historical experience could provide a basis for predicting battle outcomes. Colonel Dupuy used historical
- [Genius for War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/genius-for-war/) - Genius for War by Trevor N. Dupuy Since the Prussian armies of Frederick the Great achieved their amazing victories in the mid-18th century, the Prussian and German armies have established the standard of military excellence against which the performance of all other armies has been measured. This widely acclaimed book explores the reasons behind the
- [Military Heritage of America](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/military-heritage-of-america/) - Military Heritage of America by R.E. Dupuy, Trevor N. Dupuy, and Paul Braim This classic work, originally published in 1956, has now been updated to include the recent U.S. actions in Panama and the Persian Gulf. A mainstay of many ROTC and military science programs, Military Heritage of America continues to provide a broad coverage
- [The Harper Encyclopedia of Military Biography](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/the-harper-encyclopedia-of-military-biography/) - The Harper Encyclopedia of Military Biography by Trevor N. Dupuy, Curt Johnson and David L. Bongard This tremendous work provides in-depth, accurate, and insightful profiles of approximately 3,000 of the world's greatest military leaders and thinkers, from Julius Caesar and before to Norman Schwartzkopf. Arranged alphabetically, the biographical entries range from 200 to 1,000 words,
- [Future Wars](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/future-wars/) - Future Wars by Trevor N. Dupuy Written with the authority of a top-ranked military analyst and the you-are-there immediacy of the best techno-thriller fiction, Future Wars gives a brief history of the region for each of these wars and describes its probable course including a review of each side's military potential, a vividly detailed scenario
- [Understanding Defeat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/understanding-defeat/) - Understanding Defeat by Trevor N. Dupuy The author begins by exploring the losing experience of combat soldiers, including some of the great captains of history: Hannibal, Genghis Khan, Turenne, and Frederick, among others. Discussed next are the various factors that contribute to military loss, from failures of command to circumstances beyond individual commander's control. This
- [Brave Men and Great Captains](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/brave-men-and-great-captains/) - by R.E. Dupuy & T.N. Dupuy Whether gifted, heroic, or bumbling, leading our troops to victory or defeat, American military leaders from the Revolutionary War to the Korean War are vividly brought to life in this exciting narrative. Leaders renowned and unsung are evaluated for both talents and faults. In addition, the book indicates the
- [Elusive Victory](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/elusive-victory/) - Elusive Victory: The Arab Israeli Wars, 1947-1974 by Trevor N. Dupuy In perhaps his most challenging task, creating a factual, impartial, and complete account of the Arab-Israeli Wars between 1947 and 1974, Trevor N. Dupuy achieves a resounding triumph with Elusive Victory. This invaluable guide to the conflicts that have rocked the Middle East for
- [Attrition: Forecasting Battle Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/publications/books/attrition-forecasting-battle-casualties-and-equipment-losses-in-modern-war/) - by Trevor N. Dupuy This book is compilation of historical data with emphasis on World Wars I and II, and the Arab-Israeli Wars. It is the finest and most complete work on potential losses in battle. The equation for forecasting casualties was applied to the facts available on Operation "Just Cause" in Panama and was

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- [Archeology](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/archeology/)
- [Sea Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/sea-warfare/)
- [Scandinavia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/scandinavia/)
- [TNDM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/tndm/)
- [Future American Wars](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/future-american-wars/)
- [National Security Policy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/national-security-policy/)
- [Middle East](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/middle-east/)
- [Land Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/land-warfare/)
- [War & Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/war-warfare/)
- [Chemical and Biological Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/chemical-and-biological-warfare/)
- [Nuclear Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/nuclear-warfare/)
- [Electronic Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/electronic-warfare/)
- [Vietnam](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/vietnam/)
- [Urban Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/urban-warfare/)
- [Maps & Cartography](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/maps-cartography/)
- [TDI Friday Read](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/tdi-friday-read/)
- [World War II](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/world-war-ii/)
- [Eastern Front](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/world-war-ii/eastern-front/)
- [European Theater of Operations (ETO)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/world-war-ii/european-theater-of-operations-eto-world-war-ii/)
- [Demographics](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/demographics/)
- [Economics](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/economics/)
- [East Asia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/east-asia/)
- [Dupuy's Verities](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/dupuys-verities/)
- [U.S. Military Doctrine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/u-s-military-doctrine/)
- [Doctrine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/doctrine/)
- [Battle of Britain](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/combat-databases/battle-of-britain/)
- [Dupuy's Theory of Combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/dupuys-theory-of-combat/)
- [Lethality](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/lethality/)
- [Validation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/validation/)
- [DuWar Databases](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/combat-databases/duwar-databases/)
- [Disease](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/disease/)
- [World War I](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/world-war-i/)
- [WWI Air](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/world-war-i/wwi-air/)
- [U.S. Politics](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/u-s-politics/)
- [Net Assessment](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/net-assessment/)
- [Amphibious Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/amphibious-warfare/)
- [Coronavirus](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/disease/coronavirus/)
- [Mine Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/mine-warfare/)
- [Historical Analysis Annual Conference](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/historical-analysis-annual-conference/)
- [Coronavirus](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/coronavirus-2/)
- [Gun Violence](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/gun-violence/)
- [Drones](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/drones/)
- [Missiles](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/missiles/)
- [AI](https://dupuyinstitute.org/category/ai/)

## Tags

- [Counterinsurgency](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/counterinsurgency/)
- [Force Ratios](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/force-ratios/)
- [ISIS](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/isis/)
- [Daesh](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/daesh/)
- [Force Size](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/force-size/)
- [Syria](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/syria/)
- [Iraq](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/iraq/)
- [Afghanistan](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/afghanistan/)
- [Research](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/research/)
- [Analysis](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/analysis/)
- [Special Operations Reserach Office (SORO)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/special-operations-reserach-office-soro/)
- [Vietnam](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/vietnam/)
- [Ted Gurr](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/ted-gurr/)
- [Ivo and Rosalind Feierabend](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/ivo-and-rosalind-feierabend/)
- [Political Violence](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/political-violence/)
- [Terrorism](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/terrorism/)
- [Prediction](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/prediction/)
- [security studies](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/security-studies/)
- [international relations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/international-relations/)
- [Bosnia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/bosnia/)
- [Gulf War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/gulf-war/)
- [Trevor N. Dupuy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/trevor-n-dupuy/)
- [quantitative analysis](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/quantitative-analysis/)
- [theory](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/theory/)
- [lethality](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/lethality/)
- [dispersion](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/dispersion/)
- [The Evolution of Weapons and Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/the-evolution-of-weapons-and-warfare/)
- [fire and movement](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fire-and-movement/)
- [tactics](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/tactics/)
- [casualty estimation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/casualty-estimation/)
- [wargaming](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/wargaming/)
- [Eastern Europe](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/eastern-europe/)
- [NATO](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/nato/)
- [Cold War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/cold-war/)
- [Russia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/russia/)
- [morale](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/morale/)
- [World War II](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/world-war-ii/)
- [human factors](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/human-factors/)
- [combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/combat/)
- [combat models](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/combat-models/)
- [Base of Sand problem](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/base-of-sand-problem/)
- [Principles of War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/principles-of-war/)
- [Timeless Verities of Combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/timeless-verities-of-combat/)
- [Security Force Assistance](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/security-force-asssitance/)
- [Training](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/training/)
- [Irregular warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/irregular-warfare/)
- [Peacekeeping](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/peacekeeping/)
- [Combat attrition verities](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/combat-attrition-verities/)
- [Civil War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/civil-war/)
- [innovation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/innovation/)
- [School of Advanced Military Studies](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/school-of-advanced-military-studies/)
- [U.S. Army](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-army/)
- [Combat Power](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/combat-power/)
- [Doctrine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/doctrine/)
- [Tanks](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/tanks/)
- [Challenger II](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/challenger-ii/)
- [T-14 Armata](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/t-14-armata/)
- [World War I](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/world-war-i/)
- [defeat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/defeat/)
- [3-1 Rule](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/3-1-rule/)
- [Eastern Front](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/eastern-front/)
- [strategic studies](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/strategic-studies/)
- [Net Assessment](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/net-assessment/)
- [Ukraine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/ukraine/)
- [advance rates](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/advance-rates/)
- [conventional warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/conventional-warfare/)
- [Revolution in Military Affairs](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/revolution-in-military-affairs/)
- [hybrid war](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/hybrid-war/)
- [The Military Conflict Institute (TMCI)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/the-military-conflict-institute-tmci/)
- [Body Counts](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/body-counts/)
- [Defense Department](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/defense-department/)
- [Air power](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/airpower/)
- [operations research](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/operations-research/)
- [Attrition](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/attrition/)
- [Material Losses](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/material-losses/)
- [XM-25](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/xm-25/)
- [Military Science](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/military-science/)
- [Third Offset Strategy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/third-offset-strategy/)
- [F-35 Lightning II](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/f-35-lightning-ii/)
- [Kursk](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/kursk/)
- [firepower scoring](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/firepower-scoring/)
- [China](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/china/)
- [Sea Power](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/sea-power/)
- [Aircraft carriers](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/aircraft-carriers/)
- [Lanchester equations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/lanchester-equations/)
- [JICM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/jicm/)
- [America's Modern Wars](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/americas-modern-wars/)
- [Insurgency](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/insurgency/)
- [Iran](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/iran/)
- [Littoral Combat Ship](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/littoral-combat-ship/)
- [Stealth](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/stealth/)
- [Long-Range Fires](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/long-range-fires/)
- [Multi-Domain Battle](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/multi-domain-battle/)
- [firepower](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/firepower/)
- [Turkey](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/turkey/)
- [anti-access/area denial (A2/D2)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/anti-accessarea-denial-a2d2/)
- [Empty battlefield](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/empty-battlefield/)
- [urban combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/urban-combat/)
- [History](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/history/)
- [Archaeology](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/archaeology/)
- [surprise](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/surprise/)
- [podcast](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/podcast/)
- [German Army](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/german-army/)
- [Soviet Army](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/soviet-army/)
- [Political warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/political-warfare/)
- [strategy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/strategy/)
- [Hew Strachan](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/hew-strachan/)
- [al Qaeda](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/al-qaeda/)
- [combat effectiveness](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/combat-effectiveness/)
- [Military Effectiveness](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/military-effectiveness/)
- [Trump administration](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/trump-administration/)
- [Drones](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/drones/)
- [Swarms](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/swarms/)
- [Autonomous Weapons](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/autonomous-weapons/)
- [Technology](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/technology/)
- [lasers](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/lasers/)
- [Future warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/future-warfare/)
- [anti-tank weapons](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/anti-tank-weapons/)
- [Kornet](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/kornet/)
- [Economics](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/economics/)
- [Numbers](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/numbers/)
- [Predictions & War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/predictions-war/)
- [South China Sea](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/south-china-sea/)
- [land power](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/land-power/)
- [Stability Operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/stability-operations/)
- [logistics & sustainment](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/logistics-sustainment/)
- [Military Power](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/military-power/)
- [Logistics](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/logistics/)
- [Sustainment](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/sustainment/)
- [Historical Evaluation Research Organization (HERO)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/historical-evaluation-research-organization-hero/)
- [Quantified Judgement Model (QJM)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/quantified-judgement-model-qjm/)
- [Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model (TNDM)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/tactical-numerical-deterministic-model-tndm/)
- [U.S. Marine Corps](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-marine-corps/)
- [Maneuver warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/maneuver-warfare/)
- [Blitzkrieg](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/blitzkrieg/)
- [Counterterrorism](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/counterterrorism/)
- [Special Operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/special-operations/)
- [Foreign Internal Defense](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/foreign-internal-defense/)
- [H.R. McMaster](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/h-r-mcmaster/)
- [Andrew Bacevich](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/andrew-bacevich/)
- [Vietnam War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/vietnam-war/)
- [Reading lists](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/reading-lists/)
- [Maps](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/maps/)
- [National Archives and Records Administration (NARA)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/national-archives-and-records-administration-nara/)
- [Archives](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/archives/)
- [Douglas Macgregor](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/douglas-macgregor/)
- [Reconaissance Strike Group (RSG)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/reconaissance-strike-group-rsg/)
- [Mobile Protected Firepower (MPF)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/mobile-protected-firepower-mpf/)
- [F-22](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/f-22/)
- [Networks](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/networks/)
- [Medium-weight armor](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/medium-weight-armor/)
- [Active Protection System (APS)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/active-protection-system-aps/)
- [Artillery](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/artillery/)
- [New Generation Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/new-generation-warfare/)
- [Air superiority](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/air-superiority/)
- [U.S. AIr Force](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-air-force/)
- [U.S. Navy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-navy/)
- [Air-to-air combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/air-to-air-combat/)
- [Army University Press](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/army-university-press/)
- [Transformation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/transformation/)
- [Short-Take-Off-Vetical-Landing (STOVL)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/short-take-off-vetical-landing-stovl/)
- [1982 Falklands War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/1982-falklands-war/)
- [Harrier Jump Jet](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/harrier-jump-jet/)
- [AV-8B Harrier II](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/av-8b-harrier-ii/)
- [Royal Air Force (RAF)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/royal-air-force-raf/)
- [Littoral combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/littoral-combat/)
- [Maneuver from the sea](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/maneuver-from-the-sea/)
- [Amphibious operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/amphibious-operations/)
- [Amphibious assault ship](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/amphibious-assault-ship/)
- [probability of hit/probability of kill (pH/pK)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/probability-of-hitprobability-of-kill-phpk/)
- [Infoporn](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/infoporn/)
- [Napoleon Bonaparte](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/napoleon-bonaparte/)
- [ISIL](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/isil/)
- [Iraqi Security Forces](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/iraqi-security-forces/)
- [Mosul](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/mosul/)
- [F-18 Super Hornet](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/f-18-super-hornet/)
- [Fifth Generation aircraft](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fifth-generation-aircraft/)
- [Sixth Generation aircraft](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/sixth-generation-aircraft/)
- [F/A-XX](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fa-xx/)
- [Penetrating Counter-Air (PCA)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/penetrating-counter-air-pca/)
- [F-X Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/f-x-next-generation-air-dominance-ngad/)
- [Cartography](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/cartography/)
- [combined arms maneuver](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/combined-arms-maneuver/)
- [wide-area security](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/wide-area-security/)
- [stabilization operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/stabilization-operations/)
- [Wayne Hughes](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/wayne-hughes/)
- [Chester Nimitz](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/chester-nimitz/)
- [Raymond Spruance](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/raymond-spruance/)
- [Arliegh Burke](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/arliegh-burke/)
- [Bradley FIske](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/bradley-fiske/)
- [Conflict termination](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/conflict-termination/)
- [Manpower](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/manpower/)
- [B-52 Stratofortress](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/b-52-stratofortress/)
- [KC-135 Stratotanker](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/kc-135-stratotanker/)
- [Boeing](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/boeing/)
- [North Korea](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/north-korea/)
- [South Korea](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/south-korea/)
- [armored warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/armored-warfare/)
- [RAND](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/rand/)
- [Domains](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/domains/)
- [Effects Based Operations (EBO)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/effects-based-operations-ebo/)
- [Cyberwarfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/cyberwarfare/)
- [Information Operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/information-operations/)
- [military history](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/military-history/)
- [B.A. Friedman](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/b-a-friedman/)
- [fear](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fear/)
- [Stryker combat vehicle](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/stryker-combat-vehicle/)
- [combat intensity](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/combat-intensity/)
- [Su-35](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/su-35/)
- [fatigue](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fatigue/)
- [exhaustion](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/exhaustion/)
- [S.L.A. Marshall](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/s-l-a-marshall/)
- [David Rowland](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/david-rowland/)
- [Christopher A. Lawrence](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/christopher-a-lawrence/)
- [situational awareness](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/situational-awareness/)
- [Deterrence](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/deterrence/)
- [Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/intercontinental-ballistic-missiles-icbms/)
- [Nuclear weapons](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/nuclear-weapons/)
- [People's Liberaration Army (PLA)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/peoples-liberaration-army-pla/)
- [People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/peoples-liberation-army-navy-plan/)
- [People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/peoples-liberation-army-air-force-plaaf/)
- [ballistic missile defense (BMD)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/ballistic-missile-defense-bmd/)
- [Ground-based midcourse defense (GMD)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/ground-based-midcourse-defense-gmd/)
- [ballistic missiles](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/ballistic-missiles/)
- [Hwasong-14](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/hwasong-14/)
- [Aegis](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/aegis/)
- [Patriot](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/patriot/)
- [Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/terminal-high-altitude-area-defense-thaad/)
- [circular area of probability (CEP)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/circular-area-of-probability-cep/)
- [Fission-boosting](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fission-boosting/)
- [Hwasong-12](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/hwasong-12/)
- [women](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/women/)
- [railgun](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/railgun/)
- [Main Battle Tank (MBT)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/main-battle-tank-mbt/)
- [M1 Abrams](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/m1-abrams/)
- [suppression](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/suppression/)
- [fires](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fires/)
- [Digital history](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/digital-history/)
- [Official history](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/official-history/)
- [Record keeping](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/record-keeping/)
- [U.S. Army Center for Military History (CMH)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-army-center-for-military-history-cmh/)
- [Database](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/database/)
- [Europe](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/europe/)
- [Population](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/population/)
- [Carl von Clausewitz](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/carl-von-clausewitz/)
- [On War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/on-war/)
- [Friction](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/friction/)
- [Joint History Program](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/joint-history-program/)
- [U.S. Navy History & Heritage Command](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-navy-history-heritage-command/)
- [U.S. Marine Corps History Division](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-marine-corps-history-division/)
- [U.S. Air Force Historical Studies Office](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-air-force-historical-studies-office/)
- [U.S. Air Force Historical Research Agency](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-air-force-historical-research-agency/)
- [Office of the Secretary of Defense Historical Office](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/office-of-the-secretary-of-defense-historical-office/)
- [Readiness](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/readiness/)
- [civilian casualties](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/civilian-casualties/)
- [state collapse](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/state-collapse/)
- [civil conflict](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/civil-conflict/)
- [ethnic disintegration](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/ethnic-disintegration/)
- [multisided intervention](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/multisided-intervention/)
- [Thermonuclear weapons](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/thermonuclear-weapons/)
- [Budget Control Act (BCA)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/budget-control-act-bca/)
- [Department of Defense](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/department-of-defense/)
- [Congress](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/congress/)
- [Strategic insolvency](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/strategic-insolvency/)
- [policy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/policy/)
- [Diminishing returns](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/diminishing-returns/)
- [breakpoints](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/breakpoints/)
- [Economy of force](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/economy-of-force/)
- [Simulations Publications Inc. (SPI)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/simulations-publications-inc-spi/)
- [Richard Berg](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/richard-berg/)
- ["Monster" wargames](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/monster-wargames/)
- [Aggregated](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/aggregated/)
- [hierarchical](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/hierarchical/)
- [bottom-up models](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/bottom-up-models/)
- [U.S.S. Zumwalt](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-s-zumwalt/)
- [Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/long-range-anti-ship-missile-lrasm/)
- [Office of Naval Research (ONR)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/office-of-naval-research-onr/)
- [Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/israeli-defense-forces-idf/)
- [Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/defense-intelligence-agency-dia/)
- [Verification](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/verification/)
- [Validation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/validation/)
- [and Accreditation (VV&A)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/and-accreditation-vva/)
- [Joint Force](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/joint-force/)
- [Casualty rates](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/casualty-rates/)
- [Understanding War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/understanding-war/)
- [frontage](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/frontage/)
- [Cover & Concealment](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/cover-concealment/)
- [Engagement ranges](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/engagement-ranges/)
- [Reduced chance to hit](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/reduced-chance-to-hit/)
- [Command and Control](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/command-and-control/)
- [Intelligence](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/intelligence/)
- [Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/security-force-assistance-brigade-sfab/)
- [Special Operations Forces (SOF)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/special-operations-forces-sof/)
- [U.S. Army Special Forces (ARSOF)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-army-special-forces-arsof/)
- [Lighter-weight armor](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/lighter-weight-armor/)
- [Contingency Operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/contingency-operations/)
- [Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/special-inspector-general-for-afghanistan-reconstruction-sigar/)
- [Taliban](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/taliban/)
- [Defense budget](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/defense-budget/)
- [Tax reform](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/tax-reform/)
- [Troop Density](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/troop-density/)
- [FM 3-24](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fm-3-24/)
- [British Army](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/british-army/)
- [Japan](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/japan/)
- [Saudi Arabia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/saudi-arabia/)
- [SCUD ballistic missile](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/scud-ballistic-missile/)
- [Yemen](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/yemen/)
- [Patriot ballistic missile defense system](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/patriot-ballistic-missile-defense-system/)
- [Huba Wass de Czege](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/huba-wass-de-czege/)
- [WEI/WUV](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/wei-wuv/)
- [Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/military-decision-making-process-mdmp/)
- [Course of Action (COA) analysis](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/course-of-action-coa-analysis/)
- [Modeling](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/modeling/)
- [Simulation & Wargaming](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/simulation-wargaming/)
- [Theory of combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/theory-of-combat/)
- [Cyber Electromagnetic Activities (CEMA)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/cyber-electromagnetic-activities-cema/)
- [Robotic and Autonomous systems (RAS)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/robotic-and-autonomous-systems-ras/)
- [mass](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/mass/)
- [technological determinism](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/technological-determinism/)
- [mobilization](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/mobilization/)
- [The Spectrum of Conflict](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/the-spectrum-of-conflict/)
- [war](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/war/)
- [warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/warfare/)
- [Sir Hew Strachan](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/sir-hew-strachan/)
- [Philosophy of science](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/philosophy-of-science/)
- [Epistomology of combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/epistomology-of-combat/)
- [First World War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/first-world-war/)
- [historical combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/historical-combat/)
- [Artillery defense system](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/artillery-defense-system/)
- [Iron Dome](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/iron-dome/)
- [Missile defense system](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/missile-defense-system/)
- [nuclear warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/nuclear-warfare/)
- [U.S. Constitution](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-constitution/)
- [Nuclear custody](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/nuclear-custody/)
- [pre-delegation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/pre-delegation/)
- [nuclear arms race](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/nuclear-arms-race/)
- [War Powers Resolution](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/war-powers-resolution/)
- [War powers](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/war-powers/)
- [Train and Advise](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/train-and-advise/)
- [Taiwan Straits](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/taiwan-straits/)
- [Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGV)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/hypersonic-glide-vehicles-hgv/)
- [Operating concept](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/operating-concept/)
- [AirLand Battle](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/airland-battle/)
- [Land Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/land-warfare/)
- [National Security Policy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/national-security-policy/)
- [Arctic](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/arctic/)
- [Napoleon](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/napoleon/)
- [1812 campaign](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/1812-campaign/)
- [Minard](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/minard/)
- [Demography](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/demography/)
- [U.S. Civil War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-civil-war/)
- [Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/trans-atlantic-slave-trade/)
- [Slavery](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/slavery/)
- [Artificial intelligence (AI)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/artificial-intelligence-ai/)
- [Air Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/air-warfare/)
- [Future American Wars and tagged Air power](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/future-american-wars-and-tagged-air-power/)
- [Russian Army](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/russian-army/)
- [direct fire](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/direct-fire/)
- [indirect fire](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/indirect-fire/)
- [Methodologies](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/methodologies/)
- [War by Numbers and tagged advance rates](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/war-by-numbers-and-tagged-advance-rates/)
- [Combined arms](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/combined-arms/)
- [grey zone warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/grey-zone-warfare/)
- [Imperial Japanese Navy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/imperial-japanese-navy/)
- [Joint Integrated Contingency Model (JICM)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/joint-integrated-contingency-model-jicm/)
- [Situational Force Scoiring (SFS)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/situational-force-scoiring-sfs/)
- [Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike (UCLASS)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/unmanned-carrier-launched-airborne-surveillance-and-strike-uclass/)
- [Unmanned Combat Air System (UCAS)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/unmanned-combat-air-system-ucas/)
- [Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/unmanned-combat-aerial-vehicle-ucav/)
- [Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/unmanned-aerial-vehicle-uav/)
- [Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/next-generation-air-dominance-ngad/)
- [Soviet Union](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/soviet-union/)
- [1967 Arab-Israeli War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/1967-arab-israeli-war/)
- [1973 Arab-Israeli War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/1973-arab-israeli-war/)
- [1982 Israeli Invasion of Lebanon](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/1982-israeli-invasion-of-lebanon/)
- [1987-1988 South African Operations in Angola](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/1987-1988-south-african-operations-in-angola/)
- [1990-91 Gulf War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/1990-91-gulf-war/)
- [Singularity](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/singularity/)
- [Ray Kurzweil](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/ray-kurzweil/)
- [Peter Perla](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/peter-perla/)
- [Modeling and Simulation (M&S)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/modeling-and-simulation-ms/)
- [Air defense](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/air-defense/)
- [Hypersonic weapons](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/hypersonic-weapons/)
- [Small unmanned aerial aircraft systems (sUASs)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/small-unmanned-aerial-aircraft-systems-suass/)
- [Robotics](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/robotics/)
- [Deep learning](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/deep-learning/)
- [Light infantry](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/light-infantry/)
- [Army Operational Research Group (AORG)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/army-operational-research-group-aorg/)
- [Evett Committee](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/evett-committee/)
- [Evett's Rates](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/evetts-rates/)
- [U.S. Army Surgeon General](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-army-surgeon-general/)
- [Love's Tables](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/loves-tables/)
- [Russian "New Generation Warfare"](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/russian-new-generation-warfare/)
- [gray zone](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/gray-zone/)
- [Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/defense-advanced-research-projects-agency-darpa/)
- [leadership](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/leadership/)
- [2008 Russian-Georgia Conflict](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/2008-russian-georgia-conflict/)
- [General Curtis LeMay](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/general-curtis-lemay/)
- [Strategic Air Command (SAC)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/strategic-air-command-sac/)
- [U.S. Air Force Air Command and Staff College (ACSC)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-air-force-air-command-and-staff-college-acsc/)
- [Battle of Britain](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battle-of-britain/)
- [Dupuy Air Campaign Model (DACM)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/dupuy-air-campaign-model-dacm/)
- [Precision fires](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/precision-fires/)
- [Cruise missiles](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/cruise-missiles/)
- [James G. Taylor](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/james-g-taylor/)
- [Force scoring](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/force-scoring/)
- [Historical analysis](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/historical-analysis/)
- [Operational Lethality Indices (OLI)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/operational-lethality-indices-oli/)
- [Theoretical Lethality Index (TLI)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/theoretical-lethality-index-tli/)
- [Battle of Brody](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battle-of-brody/)
- [Battle of Prokhorovka](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battle-of-prokhorovka/)
- [Nazi Germany](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/nazi-germany/)
- [Red Army](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/red-army/)
- [FM 3-0 Operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fm-3-0-operations/)
- [Offensive action](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/offensive-action/)
- [Unified Land Operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/unified-land-operations/)
- [Decisive action](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/decisive-action/)
- [Fourth Generation aircraft](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fourth-generation-aircraft/)
- [Epistimology of combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/epistimology-of-combat/)
- [Ontology of combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/ontology-of-combat/)
- [Proxy warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/proxy-warfare/)
- [defensive posture](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/defensive-posture/)
- [Terrain](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/terrain/)
- [combat multipliers](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/combat-multipliers/)
- [Military operations on urbanized terrain (MOUT)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/military-operations-on-urbanized-terrain-mout/)
- [Italy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/italy/)
- [1943](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/1943/)
- [Order of battle](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/order-of-battle/)
- [Kharkov](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/kharkov/)
- [Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/senate-armed-services-committee-sasc/)
- [James Mattis](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/james-mattis/)
- [John McCain](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/john-mccain/)
- [National Defense Strategy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/national-defense-strategy/)
- [National Defense Authorization Act](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/national-defense-authorization-act/)
- [amphibious forced entry operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/amphibious-forced-entry-operations/)
- [Stephen Biddle](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/stephen-biddle/)
- [Polical science](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/polical-science/)
- [Lessons of History](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/lessons-of-history/)
- [Urban Warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/urban-warfare/)
- [War by Numbers and tagged Analysis](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/war-by-numbers-and-tagged-analysis/)
- [Battle of Manilla](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battle-of-manilla/)
- [Battle of Kharkov](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battle-of-kharkov/)
- [Measuring the Effects of Combat in Cities study](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/measuring-the-effects-of-combat-in-cities-study/)
- [ramjet projectiles](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/ramjet-projectiles/)
- [FireFly](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/firefly/)
- [Unconventional warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/unconventional-warfare/)
- [Sieges](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/sieges/)
- [Chechnya](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/chechnya/)
- [Yevgeny Prigozhin](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/yevgeny-prigozhin/)
- [Vladimir Putin](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/vladimir-putin/)
- [Deir Ezzor](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/deir-ezzor/)
- [War by Numbers](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/war-by-numbers/)
- [Battle of Stalingrad](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battle-of-stalingrad/)
- [Korean War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/korean-war/)
- [The Battle of Inchon](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/the-battle-of-inchon/)
- [Battle of Suez City](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battle-of-suez-city/)
- [Battle of Hue](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battle-of-hue/)
- [Battle of Kursk](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battle-of-kursk/)
- [Violence Management](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/violence-management/)
- [Philippines](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/philippines/)
- [Niger](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/niger/)
- [Rim Of The Pacific (RIMPAC)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/rim-of-the-pacific-rimpac/)
- [Naval Strike Missile](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/naval-strike-missile/)
- [High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System [HIMARS]](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/high-mobility-artillery-rocket-system-himars/)
- [AGM-84 Harpoon](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/agm-84-harpoon/)
- [Mk-48 torpedo](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/mk-48-torpedo/)
- [General William E. DePuy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/general-william-e-depuy/)
- [Active Defense](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/active-defense/)
- [FM 100-5 Operations (1976)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fm-100-5-operations-1976/)
- [U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-army-training-and-doctrine-command-tradoc/)
- [Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/suppression-of-enemy-air-defenses-sead/)
- [Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/iran-iraq-war-1980-1988/)
- [Killed in Action (KIA)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/killed-in-action-kia/)
- [Casualty ratios](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/casualty-ratios/)
- [Wounded in Action (WIA)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/wounded-in-action-wia/)
- [Prisoners of War (PoW)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/prisoners-of-war-pow/)
- [Chemical warfare](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/chemical-warfare/)
- [Iranian Army](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/iranian-army/)
- [Iraqi Army](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/iraqi-army/)
- [commercial off-the shelf (COTS)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/commercial-off-the-shelf-cots/)
- [modified off-the-shelf (MOTS)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/modified-off-the-shelf-mots/)
- [Malaysia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/malaysia/)
- [Indonesia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/indonesia/)
- [Piracy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/piracy/)
- [War graves](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/war-graves/)
- [H.M.S. Repulse](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/h-m-s-repulse/)
- [H.M.S. Prince of Wales](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/h-m-s-prince-of-wales/)
- [H.M.S. Exeter](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/h-m-s-exeter/)
- [J.F.C. Fuller](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/j-f-c-fuller/)
- [Historiography](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/historiography/)
- [American Civil War](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/american-civil-war/)
- [Battle of Antietam](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battle-of-antietam/)
- [Thomas L. Livermore](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/thomas-l-livermore/)
- [Automation](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/automation/)
- [Next-Generation Combat Vehicle (NGCV)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/next-generation-combat-vehicle-ngcv/)
- [Afghan Security Forces](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/afghan-security-forces/)
- [Long range penetrating strikes](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/long-range-penetrating-strikes/)
- [Normandy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/normandy/)
- [Falaise Gap](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/falaise-gap/)
- [Interchangeability](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/interchangeability/)
- [multi-domain operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/multi-domain-operations/)
- [Richard Simpkin](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/richard-simpkin/)
- [Cross-domain fires](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/cross-domain-fires/)
- [Battlefield effects](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battlefield-effects/)
- [Circumstantial variables of combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/circumstantial-variables-of-combat/)
- [Race To The Swift](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/race-to-the-swift/)
- [Japan Ground Self-Defense Forces (JGSDF)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/japan-ground-self-defense-forces-jgsdf/)
- [Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces (JGSDF)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/japan-maritime-self-defense-forces-jgsdf/)
- [Japan Air Self-Defense Forces (JASDF)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/japan-air-self-defense-forces-jasdf/)
- [Indo-Pacific](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/indo-pacific/)
- [East Asia](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/east-asia/)
- [Grand strategy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/grand-strategy/)
- [FM 105-5 Maneuver Control](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fm-105-5-maneuver-control/)
- [Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces (JMSDF)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/japan-maritime-self-defense-forces-jmsdf/)
- [Operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/operations/)
- [Soverignty](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/soverignty/)
- [Holocaust](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/holocaust/)
- [Final Solution](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/final-solution/)
- [Wansee Conference](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/wansee-conference/)
- [Lewi Stone](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/lewi-stone/)
- [Biomathematics](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/biomathematics/)
- [Adolf Hitler](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/adolf-hitler/)
- [Operation Reinhardt](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/operation-reinhardt/)
- [Poland](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/poland/)
- [U.S. Army Center for Army Analysis (CAA)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-army-center-for-army-analysis-caa/)
- [Wargaming Analysis Model (C-WAM)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/wargaming-analysis-model-c-wam/)
- [Attrition Calculator (ATCAL)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/attrition-calculator-atcal/)
- [COmbat SAmple GEnerator (COSAGE)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/combat-sample-generator-cosage/)
- ["Forward Defense"](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/forward-defense/)
- [Warsaw Pact](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/warsaw-pact/)
- [FM 101-5 Operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fm-101-5-operations/)
- [West Germany](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/west-germany/)
- [Battle calculus](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battle-calculus/)
- [Iraqi Freedom](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/iraqi-freedom/)
- [New Dawn](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/new-dawn/)
- [Instant history](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/instant-history/)
- [Combat Studies Institute](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/combat-studies-institute/)
- [U.S. Army War College](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-army-war-college/)
- [U.S. Army Strategic Studies Institute](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-army-strategic-studies-institute/)
- [Raymond Odierno](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/raymond-odierno/)
- [Mark Milley](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/mark-milley/)
- [The Surge](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/the-surge/)
- [2007-2008](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/2007-2008/)
- [CEM (Concepts Evaluation Model)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/cem-concepts-evaluation-model/)
- [Operations Research Office (ORO)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/operations-research-office-oro/)
- [Research Analysis Corporation (RAC)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/research-analysis-corporation-rac/)
- [FM 100-5 Operations](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fm-100-5-operations/)
- [Moscow Conference](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/moscow-conference/)
- [Abenomics](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/abenomics/)
- [Japan's economic miracle](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/japans-economic-miracle/)
- [Yoshida Doctrine](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/yoshida-doctrine/)
- [fukoku kyōhei Enrich the Country](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fukoku-kyohei-enrich-the-country/)
- [Strengthen the Armed Forces](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/strengthen-the-armed-forces/)
- [Shinzo Abe](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/shinzo-abe/)
- [Meiji era](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/meiji-era/)
- [Defensive Counter Air (DCA)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/defensive-counter-air-dca/)
- [Offensive Counter Air (OCA)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/offensive-counter-air-oca/)
- [JASDF F-3](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/jasdf-f-3/)
- [Fighter aircraft](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/fighter-aircraft/)
- [Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/chinese-peoples-liberation-army-air-force-plaaf/)
- [Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/mitsubishi-heavy-industries-mhi/)
- [Deputy Undersecretary of the Army for Operations Research (DUSA-OR)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/deputy-undersecretary-of-the-army-for-operations-research-dusa-or/)
- [Subject Matter Experts (SMEs)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/subject-matter-experts-smes/)
- [quantified judgement](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/quantified-judgement/)
- [Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/air-defense-identification-zone-adiz/)
- [Semi-Automatic Ground Environment (SAGE) air defense system](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/semi-automatic-ground-environment-sage-air-defense-system/)
- [NATO Air Defense Ground Environment (NADGE)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/nato-air-defense-ground-environment-nadge/)
- [Base Air Defense Ground Environment (BADGE)](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/base-air-defense-ground-environment-badge/)
- [Modern computing](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/modern-computing/)
- [MIT Lincoln Labs](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/mit-lincoln-labs/)
- [Dowding system](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/dowding-system/)
- [tank recovery](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/tank-recovery/)
- [tank repair](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/tank-repair/)
- [Primary sources](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/primary-sources/)
- [Defense](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/defense/)
- [Initiative](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/initiative/)
- [Dupuy's Theory of Combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/dupuys-theory-of-combat/)
- [Simulation & Wargaming and tagged Analysis](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/simulation-wargaming-and-tagged-analysis/)
- [battalion-level combat](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/battalion-level-combat/)
- [TNDM](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/tndm/)
- [Validation and tagged Analysis](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/validation-and-tagged-analysis/)
- [U.S. National Defense Strategy](https://dupuyinstitute.org/tag/u-s-national-defense-strategy/)