8-10 October, 2024
Tysons Corner, VA
Right outside Washington, D.C.
The Dupuy Institute Presents:
The Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC)
The Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC)
Hosted by The Dupuy Institute, the annual Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) brings together leading experts from across the world to discuss modern warfare’s most pressing questions.
Purpose: To explore and promote the use of historical analysis in understanding military affairs.
About The Dupuy Institute (TDI)
The Dupuy Institute is an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military campaigns.
| Time | Analysis of Conventional Combat Pike and Gallows Conference Center | Naval Warfare Analysis Einstein Conference Room |
|---|---|---|
| 0900–0930 | Introductory remarks Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) | --- |
| 0930–1030 | Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem Dr. Shawn R. Woodford | A Naval Power Index: The U.S. Navy vs three challengers – Imperial Japan, USSR and PRC China Geoffrey Clark |
| 1030–1130 | Urban Warfare (old) Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) | U-boats in the Atlantic: The Unseen and Unheard Dr. John Magill – virtual |
| 1130–1230 | Redux: Quantifying Warfare Alexandru Filip (Canadian Center for Strategic Studies) | The WW2 USAAF Strategic Bombing Campaign: Strategy and Operational Imperatives Dr. Sorin Adam Matei & Dr. Robert Kirchubel |
| 1230–1400 | Lunch | |
| 1400–1500 | Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII Sasho Todorov, esquire | Surveying and Quantifying Naval Warfare Alexandru Filip |
| 1500–1600 | Validation Challenges in Wargaming: What’s Real Here? Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix) | Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) Sasho Todorov, esquire |
| 1600–1700 | New Findings on Artillery Suppression Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual | A Modest Proviso – National Guard Bureau Chief George Leach and his Role as Catalyst in Motorizing Artillery Dr. Johannes Allert (Swansea University, Wales) |
| 1700–1800 | Gun, Baby, Gun Dr. Iain Overton (AOAV) – virtual | Mass Egress after an IED Explosion: Lessons Learned about Validation Doug Samuelson |
| Evening (1900) | Group Dinner – Rangos | |
| Time | Analysis of Unconventional Warfare Pike and Gallows Conference Center | Analysis of Conventional Combat Einstein Conference Room | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0900–1000 | Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) | Designing Computer Based AI Wargaming Systems for Simulating and Investigating Historical Battles Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies, Australia) – virtual | |
| 1000–1100 | Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) | Theory of Victory: The Ideas, Doctrine and Education of the U.S. Army from 1814-1941 Dr. Michael Bonura (CGSC) – virtual | |
| 1100–1200 | Native American Wars and Conflicts, 1500-1900 Dr. David Cuberes – virtual | Winfield Scott: Architect of American Joint Warfare LtC. Nathan A. Jennings (CGSC) – virtual | |
| 1200–1300 | Lunch | ||
| 1300–1400 | Haiti: The Risks of a Failed State in the Western Hemisphere Dr. Christopher Davis | Designing Computer Based AI Wargaming Systems for Simulating and Investigating Historical Battles Clinton Reilly | |
| 1400–1500 | The Gaza Death Numbers Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University) – virtual | Data for Air Combat Modeling in Network Centric Warfare Geoffrey Clark | |
| 1500–1600 | The Islamic State of Khorasan: The Evolution of Terrorism Dr. Christopher Davis | Making Military Decisions in Plateau Eras Michael Benhamou (Director, OPEWI) – virtual | |
| 1600–1700 | Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars | Dogfight: Were US pilots in Korea really better than those in Vietnam? Chip Sayers | |
| 1700–1800 | VPAF Aces: As good as they claimed? Chip Sayers | ||
| Evening (1900) | Group Dinner – BJs | ||
| Time | Other Analysis of Warfare Pike and Gallows Conference Center | Other Analysis of Warfare Einstein Conference Room |
|---|---|---|
| 0900–1000 | Musicians of Mars Michael McCarthy | Urban Warfare: Myths and Reality Dr. James Storr (UK) – virtual |
| 1000–1100 | Force Ratios Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) | The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 Dr. Richard Harrison |
| 1100–1200 | Ground Warfare in 2050: How it Looked in 2017 Dr. Alexander Kott | Analyzing Barbarossa: By the Numbers Dr. Robert Kirchubel & Sorin Adam Matei (Purdue) |
| 1200–1300 | Lunch | |
| 1300–1400 | The Red Army’s Offensive Operations in Ukraine, 1943-44 Dr. Richard Harrison | The Debate over French Armored Warfare Doctrine 1935 to 1940 Dr. James Slaughter |
| 1400–1500 | Critique of Western Wargames of NATO-WP Conflict Walker Gargagliano | Ukrainian-German spies of the Cold War David Nelson Black – virtual |
| 1500–1600 | Capabilities of FPV drones in Ukraine: Revolution or Continuation of Historical Quantitative Trend? Dr. Alexander Kott | Chernobyl compromised: The story of a Russian cyber attack Joseph Weiss (Applied Control Solutions, LLC) – virtual |
| 1600–1700 | Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War | Political Science Pedagogy in Strategic Studies (A Contrast in Quantified History) Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill – virtual |
| Evening | Happy hour – Rangos | |
Friday, October 11: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam
Also known as the Battle of Sharpsburg, the Battle of Antietam (Sept. 17, 1862) was bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War.
We will arrange transport there and back (additional $20 charge for tour).
Photo credit: lcm1863 on Flickr (Creative Commons)
Purchase tickets: Direct payment to TDI
The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility.
Please pay through PayPal to SRichTDI@aol.com.
We are also set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.