8-10 October, 2024

Tysons Corner, VA

Right outside Washington, D.C.


The Dupuy Institute Presents:

The Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC)


The Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC)

Hosted by The Dupuy Institute, the annual Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) brings together leading experts from across the world to discuss modern warfare’s most pressing questions.

Purpose: To explore and promote the use of historical analysis in understanding military affairs.

About The Dupuy Institute (TDI)

The Dupuy Institute is an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military campaigns.

Day 1: Tuesday, Oct 8

TimeAnalysis of Conventional Combat
Pike and Gallows Conference Center
Naval Warfare Analysis
Einstein Conference Room
0900–0930Introductory remarks
Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
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0930–1030Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem
Dr. Shawn R. Woodford
A Naval Power Index: The U.S. Navy vs three challengers –
Imperial Japan, USSR and PRC China

Geoffrey Clark
1030–1130Urban Warfare (old)
Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
U-boats in the Atlantic: The Unseen and Unheard
Dr. John Magill – virtual
1130–1230Redux: Quantifying Warfare
Alexandru Filip (Canadian Center for Strategic Studies)
The WW2 USAAF Strategic Bombing Campaign: Strategy and Operational Imperatives
Dr. Sorin Adam Matei & Dr. Robert Kirchubel
1230–1400Lunch
1400–1500Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII
Sasho Todorov, esquire
Surveying and Quantifying Naval Warfare
Alexandru Filip
1500–1600Validation Challenges in Wargaming: What’s Real Here?
Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)
Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates
in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation)

Sasho Todorov, esquire
1600–1700New Findings on Artillery Suppression
Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual
A Modest Proviso – National Guard Bureau Chief George Leach
and his Role as Catalyst in Motorizing Artillery

Dr. Johannes Allert (Swansea University, Wales)
1700–1800Gun, Baby, Gun
Dr. Iain Overton (AOAV) – virtual
Mass Egress after an IED Explosion: Lessons Learned about Validation
Doug Samuelson
Evening (1900)Group Dinner – Rangos

Day 2: Wednesday, Oct 9

TimeAnalysis of Unconventional Warfare
Pike and Gallows Conference Center
Analysis of Conventional Combat
Einstein Conference Room
0900–1000Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)
Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
Designing Computer Based AI Wargaming Systems
for Simulating and Investigating Historical Battles

Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies, Australia) – virtual
1000–1100Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER)
Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)
Theory of Victory: The Ideas, Doctrine and Education of the U.S. Army from 1814-1941
Dr. Michael Bonura (CGSC) – virtual
1100–1200Native American Wars and Conflicts, 1500-1900
Dr. David Cuberes – virtual
Winfield Scott: Architect of American Joint Warfare
LtC. Nathan A. Jennings (CGSC) – virtual
1200–1300Lunch
1300–1400Haiti: The Risks of a Failed State in the Western Hemisphere
Dr. Christopher Davis
Designing Computer Based AI Wargaming Systems for Simulating and Investigating Historical Battles
Clinton Reilly
1400–1500The Gaza Death Numbers
Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University) – virtual
Data for Air Combat Modeling in Network Centric Warfare
Geoffrey Clark
1500–1600The Islamic State of Khorasan: The Evolution of Terrorism
Dr. Christopher Davis
Making Military Decisions in Plateau Eras
Michael Benhamou (Director, OPEWI) – virtual
1600–1700Group Discussion: The Next Middle East WarsDogfight: Were US pilots in Korea really better than those in Vietnam?
Chip Sayers
1700–1800VPAF Aces: As good as they claimed?
Chip Sayers
Evening (1900)Group Dinner – BJs

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare (Thurs., Oct 10)

TimeOther Analysis of Warfare
Pike and Gallows Conference Center
Other Analysis of Warfare
Einstein Conference Room
0900–1000Musicians of Mars
Michael McCarthy
Urban Warfare: Myths and Reality
Dr. James Storr (UK) – virtual
1000–1100Force Ratios
Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941
Dr. Richard Harrison
1100–1200Ground Warfare in 2050: How it Looked in 2017
Dr. Alexander Kott
Analyzing Barbarossa: By the Numbers
Dr. Robert Kirchubel & Sorin Adam Matei (Purdue)
1200–1300Lunch
1300–1400The Red Army’s Offensive Operations in Ukraine, 1943-44
Dr. Richard Harrison
The Debate over French Armored Warfare Doctrine 1935 to 1940
Dr. James Slaughter
1400–1500Critique of Western Wargames of NATO-WP Conflict
Walker Gargagliano
Ukrainian-German spies of the Cold War
David Nelson Black – virtual
1500–1600Capabilities of FPV drones in Ukraine:
Revolution or Continuation of Historical Quantitative Trend?

Dr. Alexander Kott
Chernobyl compromised: The story of a Russian cyber attack
Joseph Weiss (Applied Control Solutions, LLC) – virtual
1600–1700Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian WarPolitical Science Pedagogy in Strategic Studies
(A Contrast in Quantified History)

Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill – virtual
EveningHappy hour – Rangos

Day 4 – Extra: Battlefield tour (Fri., Oct 11)

Friday, October 11: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam

Also known as the Battle of Sharpsburg, the Battle of Antietam (Sept. 17, 1862) was bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War.

We will arrange transport there and back (additional $20 charge for tour).

Registration:

Purchase tickets: Direct payment to TDI

The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility.

Please pay through PayPal to SRichTDI@aol.com.

We are also set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.

Buy tickets through Eventbrite