21-23 October, 2025
Tysons Corner, VA
Right outside Washington, D.C.
The Dupuy Institute Presents:
The Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC)
The Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC)
Hosted by The Dupuy Institute, the annual Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) brings together leading experts from across the world to discuss modern warfare’s most pressing questions.
Purpose: To explore and promote the use of historical analysis in understanding military affairs.
About The Dupuy Institute (TDI)
The Dupuy Institute is an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military campaigns.
| Time | Analysis of Conventional Combat Pike and Gallows Conference Center | Naval Warfare Analysis Einstein Conference Room |
|---|---|---|
| 0900–0930 | Introductory remarks Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) | --- |
| 0930–1030 | Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem Dr. Shawn R. Woodford | Naval Theory and War Causation Alexandru Filip |
| 1030–1130 | Slouching Towards Wabash: The Withering of Historical Analysis in the American Profession of Arms Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.) | Preliminaries to PRC Operations Walker Gargagliano |
| 1130–1230 | Ground Combat Database (GCD) Dr. Ben Connable | Modeling the Invasion of Taiwan Chip Sayers |
| 1230–1400 | Lunch | |
| 1400–1500 | The History of TND’s models and theories Dr. Shawn R. Woodford | A Review of the CSIS gaming effort Walker Gargagliano & Dr. Douglas Samuelson |
| 1500–1600 | Analyzing Russian Fatality Patterns in the Russo-Ukrainian War Sasho Todorov, esquire | Taipei Has Fallen!: Wargaming the Invasion of Taiwan Clinton Reilly – virtual |
| 1600–1700 | History's Lessons on Technological Surprise in War Dr. Alexander Kott | Modeling ATC Amphibious Landings on Taiwan Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill |
| 1700–1800 | Difficulties in Measuring Morale and Effectiveness Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual | Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII Sasho Todorov, esquire |
| Evening (1900) | Group Dinner – Rangos | |
| Time | Analysis of Unconventional Warfare Pike and Gallows Conference Center | Analysis of Conventional Combat Einstein Conference Room | Combat Modeling and Air Warfare Analysis Gandhi Conference Room |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0900–1000 | Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) | The Manoeuvre Warfare Fraud William F. Owen – virtual | Livermore, Dupuy, and the Campaign of 1864 John E. Horn |
| 1000–1100 | Twenty-First Century and Great Power Competition Matt Matters (Col., USA, ret). | Salvation Only in Arms: A Critical Historical Analysis of Operational Maneuver during the 1814 Campaign in France Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.) | Nine Battles to Stanley: Using the TNDM to Recreate the 1982 Falklands/Malvinas Campaign Chip Sayers |
| 1100–1200 | The Truth About Little Big Horn Finally Comes Out Dr. Robert Helmbold - virtual | The Tactical Psychology of Armoured Flamethrowers (TBC) Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual | "Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) Joe Follansbee (Col. USA, ret.)" |
| 1200–1300 | Lunch | ||
| 1300–1400 | If it quacks like a duck... Ukraine, the U.S.'s 'best' proxy war ever? Reed Benet | The New Science of Evidence and Causality Dr. Douglas Samuelson | Floating Fortresses: American Carriers Invulnerability to Battle Damage Walker Gargagliano |
| 1400–1500 | The Counter-Insurgency Insurgency: An inside view of one of OIF’s most decisive battles Part 1 Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) | PLARF Missiles Geofrey Clark | Predicting the role of FPV drones in a contested amphibious landing Ulysse Oliveira Baptista & Maximilien Hachiya |
| 1500–1600 | The Counter-Insurgency Insurgency: An inside view of one of OIF’s most decisive battles Part 2 Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) | Open | A Tale of Two Maps and Three Fighters Why the P51 Mustang Did NOT Win Air Superiority Over Germany Chip Sayers |
| 1600–1700 | Have We Figured Out How to Defeat IEDs? Matt Matters (Col., USA, ret) | Open | Analysis of Aerial Warfare in the Arab-Israeli Wars, 1973-1982 Geoffrey Clark |
| 1700–1800 | Price of Paradise: How Suicide Bombers Changed the World Dr. Iain Overton (AOAV) – virtual | Open | Open |
| Evening (1900) | Group Dinner – BJs | ||
| Time | Other Analysis of Warfare Pike and Gallows Conference Center | Other Analysis of Warfare Einstein Conference Room | Biological Warfare and Medical Analysis Gandhi Conference Room |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0900-1000 | Summoning the specter of “Beweglichkeit”: A critical analysis of the U.S. Army’s new FM 3-0 Operations and observed Ukrainian battlefield trends Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.) | The Battle of Hannut May 1940: First major tank battle in history Dr. James Slaughter | The Great Race: Medical Information vs Disease Spread Dr. Douglas Samuelson |
| 1000-1100 | The Forgotten Campaign: The origin and development of American Economic Warfare in World War II (1939-1941) Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) | Isserson: The Architect of Victory Dr. Richard Harrison | Casualties (War by Numbers) Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) |
| 1100-1200 | Results from the Taiwan Analytical Efforts Alexandru Filip | Audacity versus Friction: Evaluating Operational Autism in Operation Barbarossa Dr. Robert Kirchubel and Dr. Sorin Adam Matei (Purdue) | Complex Warfare Dr. Eva Lee |
| 1200-1300 | Lunch | ||
| 1300-1400 | The Hermann Goeing Division in North Africa, Sicily and Salerno 1942-1943 and Measuring Combat Effectiveness Dr. James Slaughter | The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 Dr. Richard Harrison | Against a Common Foe: The American and British Armies in Normandy, 1944 Dr. Sean Barnett |
| 1400-1500 | "New Advances in Digital Military Cartography Gavin Ho, Joseph Hupy, Sorin Adam Matei and Robert Kirchubel." | The Forgotten Campaign: The Wartime economic warfare campaign 1942-1945 Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) | A wargaming analysis of three cruiser actions from the Great War Dr. Alvaro Radigales - virtual |
| 1500-1600 | Syrskyi’s Gambit: A Critical Analysis of Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.) | French Tank Development in the 1930s Dr. James Slaughter | Open |
| 1600-1700 | Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War | Suez crossing in the 1973 Yom Kipper War. Dr. Nathan Jennings (LTC, USA) - virtual | Understanding the Evolving Doctrine of the Pakistan Navy Dr. Nasir Mehmood - virtual |
| 1700-1715 | Closing Remarks Jeffrey Harley, PhD (Rear Admiral, USN, ret.) | ||
| 1715 - 1800 | Revitalization of TDI Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) | ||
| Evening | Happy hour – Rangos | ||
Friday, October 24: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam
Also known as the Battle of Sharpsburg, the Battle of Antietam (Sept. 17, 1862) was bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War.
We will arrange transport there and back (additional $20 charge for tour).
Photo credit: lcm1863 on Flickr (Creative Commons)
Purchase tickets: Direct payment to TDI
The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility.
Please pay through PayPal to SRichTDI@aol.com.
We are also set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.
Questions? Email LawrenceTDI@aol.com.