Numbers, Predictions and War
by Colonel T. N. Dupuy
This remarkable book is the result of a series of studies undertaken for the U.S. Department of Defense and for the British Defence Operational Analysis Establishment to determine the extent to which historical experience could provide a basis for predicting battle outcomes. Colonel Dupuy used historical data as the basis for a set of theoretical formulas which he named the Qunatified Judgment Model, or QJM. He then applied these formulas to re-fight a number of major battles including the Napoleonic battles at Austerlitz and Waterloo, Gettysburg and Antietam in our Civil War, the German Somme Offensive in 1918. The application of the QJM gave results that conformed between 92 and 95 percent with historical outcomes. ISBN 0-915979-06-3 OUT-OF-PRINT