Validation by Use
Another argument I have heard over the decades is that models are validated by use. Apparently the argument is that these models have been used for so long, and so many people have worked with their outputs, that they must…
Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis
Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis
Another argument I have heard over the decades is that models are validated by use. Apparently the argument is that these models have been used for so long, and so many people have worked with their outputs, that they must…
A couple of recent articles on that latest wargaming effort done by RAND: The opening line states: “The RAND Corporation’s annual ‘Red on Blue’ wargame simulation found that the United States would be a loser in a conventional confrontation…
I will be presenting my book War by Numbers at the New York Military Affairs Symposium (NYMAS) on Friday, 26 April, at the Soldiers Sailors Club in New York City. The announcement is here: The format is that I talk…
The phrase “face validation” shows up in our blog post earlier this week on Combat Adjudication. It is a phrase I have heard many times over the decades, sometimes by very established Operation Researchers (OR). So what does it mean? Well,…
Charles MacDonald published in 1985 A Time for Trumpets, one of the better books on the Battle of the Bulge (and there are actually a lot of good works on this battle). In there he recounted a story of why…
As I stated in a previous post, I am not aware of any other major validation efforts done in the last 25 years other than what we have done. Still, there is one other effort that needs to be mentioned.…
I will be presenting my book War by Numbers at the New York Military Affairs Symposium (NYMAS) on Friday, 26 April, at the Soldiers Sailors Club in New York City. On the 12th there is a presentation of “The Grosse Importance…
There have been (only) three other major historical validations done that I am aware of that we were not involved in. They are 1) the validation of the Atlas model to the France 1940 campaign done in the 1970s, 2)…
I recently re-read Company Commander by the late Charles B. McDonald. I had read it as a kid and picked up a used copy of it for my son. It was a Bantam War Book, specially illustrated edition. It still…
What we have listed in the previous articles is what we consider the six best databases to use for validation. The Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base (ACSDB) was used for a validation effort by CAA (Center for Army Analysis). The…