Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience. ... Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation. ... His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024). ... Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

More than Halfway to Mosul

Anyhow, this week it appears that the Iraqis have advanced more than halfway to Mosul. The town of Bartella was freed on Thursday: Raise flag in Bartella They are now only 9 miles from Mosul. When the offensive started, it…

Russian Fleet Strength

The Carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and the Battle Cruiser Peter the Great are the only two ships of that size in the Russian fleet (keying off the previous post). One source places their active strength at: 1 Carrier (58,660 tons displacement)…

Duration Estimate II

Retired Major General “Spider” Marks was on CNN this morning. He did not buy into the estimate of Mosul being taken in two-three months. I suspect the duration will be driven by three or four factors: How serious of a…

Duration Estimate for Mosul

OK…..someone published a duration estimate for Mosul: Mosul Estimate Not sure a Peshmerga Brigadier General is supposed to be providing this information to the press, but I assume it comes from some of their planning. The main points: “The Battle…

Battle for Mosul II (continued)

Washington Post article: kurds-pause-in-mosul-offensive-say-iraqi-army-will-advance I gather there is some agreement negotiated in advance as to who is going to move into Mosul and who is not. The Iraq Army’s 9th Division is reported on the outskirts of the town of al-Hamdaniyah (also…

Battle for Mosul II

Day 2: One news channel last night claimed that the clearing of the city could take up to six months. That seemed excessive. Basically, with ISIL being outnumbered and not having any real armored forces or artillery, they really have…

Battle for Mosul I

I gather it is day 1 of the Battle for Mosul. A CNN article on the subject: Mosul operation begins A couple of things that caught my eye: CNN reporter witnessed an advance of “…about 6 kilometers towards the city,…

Its Started

It has started, or at least they have announced they have started: Iraq announces start of offensive to retake Mosul Would not be surprised if it was underway before they announced it. I suspect it will take longer than three…

Russia Plans for $40 Oil

Part of the drama of the Russia budget shortfalls is that they kept making budgets based upon an unrealistically optimistic predictions of oil prices. This forces them to revise their budgets rather drastically during the year. It appears they have finally accepted…