Dr. Douglas Samuelson will be giving a presentation on the New Science of Causality and Evidence at George Mason on this Friday, 21 November, 3oo PM (EST). It is also available on Zoom. This is an extension of the presentation he gave at the Fourth HAAC (see: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute). We have not posted up the videos yet from that conference.
Anyhow, the complete announcement is below:
Speaker: Doug Samuelson, D.Sc., InfoLogix and The Dupuy Institute
Title: The New Science of Causality and Evidence, and SIPMath
Abstract: We have seen a divergence between the science of association, generally expressed in statistics, and the probative efforts used in litigation. Law practice has expanded into more use of statistics and probability, but law and probability have remained largely out of touch with each other in research. Bringing more probabilistic insights into explorations of causality and evidence is even more important now because of the increasing use of AI, agent-based simulation, and complex systems analysis, all of which defy most probability-centric methods of validation. We note also that ALL observations are somewhat uncertain, because observations take place through media (photons, electron beams, whatever) that are inherently uncertain. We need to find rigorous ways to express causality, including partial and uncertain causation, using evidence which falls short of certainty. Inference based on Stochastic Information Packets, already used with considerable success in risk analysis, provides a promising way forward.
Location: Center on Social Complexity Suite (3rd floor, Research Hall) and online (use Zoom link below)
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You are invited to a scheduled Zoom meeting.
Topic: CSS 898/CSI 899 – Friday CDS seminar
Date and time: Nov 21, 2025 03:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) and every week on Friday
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Meeting ID: 987 4541 8358
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