The Russian Recession, Part Dva

I just wanted to add a little more data on the Russian recession. Apparently according to Citi Group analysts, the Russian economy is expected to contract 1.5% in 2016. It is probably too early to make predictions for 2017, and some of that is dependent on the price of oil.

The cuts in government spending in 2015 were 10% and the Russian government has said they are expecting another 10% budget cut in 2016. They are expected to run a budget deficit of around 4.4% of GDP according to Citi Group analysts.

Just to put this in context, it was estimated by CBO that as a result of sequestration that U.S. government discretionary spending (meaning not including Social Security and Medicare) in 2013 would decline by 5.6% and in 2014 by 3.6%. The cuts to the U.S. Defense budget was expect to be 6.4% for 2013 and 5.5% in 2014 (non-defense discretionary spending was a reduction of 4.7% in 2013 and 1.6% in 2014). I gather the real figures were close to these projections. I do not have the figures for 2015 near at hand, but I gather it was less.

During the height of the Great Recession in 2009, the U.S. government budget deficit was 9.8% of GDP. For 2015 it was 2.5% of GDP.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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