Accidently Downing Airliners

Iran has admitted that an Iranian air defense system downed the Ukrainian airliner yesterday. Sadly, this is becoming an all too common occurrence. The major incidents like this include:

Ukrainian Airlines, 8 January 2020 – It was shot down by an Iranian missile (picture shown above). 176 people killed.

Malaysian Flight MH-17, 17 July 2014 – Shot down by a Russian air defense missile. Russian claims the Ukrainians shot it down, but not too many people outside of Russia believe this. 296 people killed.

Siberia Airlines Flight 1812, 4 October 2001 — A Russian airliner shot down over the Black Sea by Ukrainian air defense missile while conducting training exercise. 78 people killed.

Iran Air Flight 655, 3 July 1988 — An Iranian airliner going from Iran to Saudi Arabia was shot down by a missile from the USS Vincennes. Even though it was an accident, many in Iran still claim it was deliberate. The Iranian newspaper Tehran Times recently published a letter asking Captain Rogers, the former CO of the Vincennes, to “confess.” 290 people killed.

Korea Air Lines Flight 007, 1 September 1983 — Shot down by the Soviet Union. In this case, the plane made a navigation error and wandered into Soviet air space. The intercepting Soviet pilots had sight of the plane and were still ordered to shot it down. 269 people killed, including a U.S. congressman.

There are a lot more incidents than those. Just to list some of them (I do not know if this list is exhaustive):

 

Date……………Incident…………Plane…..Locale……………Killed….Perpetrator

24 Aug 1938…..Kweilin Incident…DC-2……near Hong Kong…..14….Japan aircraft

14 June 1940….Kaleva…………..Ju-52……Baltic Sea……………9….USSR DB-3T

29 Oct 1940……Chungking………DC-2……China………………..9…..Japan aircraft

3 March 1942….KNILM PK-AFV…DC-3……Australia…………….4….Japan A6M Zero

1 June 1943……BOAC Flt 777…..DC-3……Bay of Biscay……..17….German Ju-88C-6

22 Oct 1943……AB Aero…………DC-3……Sweden…………….13…German Ju-88

 

23 July 1954……Cathy Pacific…….DC-4……Hainan Island……10……Chinese La-11

27 July 1955……El Al Flight 402….L-149…..Bulgaria……………58…..Bulgaria MIG-15

 

30 June 1962….Aeroflot Flt 902….Tu-104A..Russia…………….84…..USSR missile

21 Feb 1973……Libyan Flt 114……727………Sinai……………108…..Israeli F-4s

 

20 April 1978….Korean Flt 902…..707……..Russia……………….2…….USSR Su-15

3 Sep 1978……Rhodesia 825…Viscount….Rhodesia…………..48…….ZIPRA Strela-2

12 Feb 1978….Rhodesia 827….Viscount…Rhodesia…………..59…….ZIPRA Strela-2

27 June 1980…Itavia Flt 870…….DC-9…….Italy………………..81…….Missile?

8 Feb 1980…….Angola D2-TYC…Yak-40…Angola……………..19……..Zambian J-6

1 Sep 1983……Korean Flt 007…..747………USSR……………269…….USSR Su-15

 

24 Feb 1985….Polar 3……………Do-228…..West Sahara……..3………Polisario

4 Sep 1985……Bakhtar YA-BAM..An-26……Afghanistan……..52………SAM

11 June 1987…Bakhtar YA-BAL…An-26…..Afghanistan………53………SAM

14 Oct 1987……Zimex…………….L-100…..Angola……………..8………unknown

6 Nov 1987…….Air Malawi……….Skyvan….Mozambique…….10………?

3 July 1988…….Iran Air 655………A300……Persian Gulf……290……..U.S. RIM-66

 

8 Dec 1988……US AID………….DC-7………W. Sahara………5……Polisario

27 March 1992…………………….Yak-40…….Armenia………..0……Azerbaijan Su-25

21 Sep 1993….Transair…………Tu-134……..Georgia………..27…..Abkhazia Strela 2

22 Sep 1993….Transair…………Tu-154……..Georgia………108…..Abkhazia SAM

23 Sep 1993….Transair…………Tu-134A……Georgia………..1..Abkhazia BM-21 Grad

6 April 1994………………………..Falcon 50….Rwanda……….12……SAM

29 Sep 1998….Lionair 602…….An-24RV……Sri Lanka…….55..Tamil Tiger MANPADS

20 April 2001………………..Cessna A185E…Peru…………….2…Peru Cessna A-37B

4 Oct 2001……Siberian 1812…Tu-154………Black Sea…….78…….Ukrainian S-200

22 Nov 2003…DHL OO-DLL….A300………..Iraq……………….0…….SAM

9 Jan 2007………………………….An-26……….Iraq………….34…Islamic Army missile?

23 Mar 2007…TransAVIA……..Il-76…………Somalia………….11…..Hizbul Islam 9K38?

17 July 2014…Malaysia MH-17…777……….Ukraine………..298..Russian 9M38 SA-11

8 Jan 2020…..Ukraine Flt 752….737………..Iran…………….176….Iran SA-15

 

Now….between 1938-1983 (45 years) there were 16 incidents resulting on the loss of 804 lives. Of these, 12 were caused by hostile aircraft (some firing air-to-air missiles), three by surface-to-air missiles and one possibly by an errant air-to-air missile. Two of the airliners shot down by missiles were clearly accidental. From 1985 to 2020 (45 years) there were 20 incidents resulting in the loss of 1,223 lives. Of these, two were caused by aircraft and 14 caused by surface-to-air missiles.

 

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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8 Comments

  1. Chris,

    Great list and thanks for the valuable insight. I know the scope of your dataset references only mistaken downings, but it might be valuable to add intentional downing and expand the data set to include non-state actors like ISIS. Most recently, the downing of Metrojet Flight 9268 by ISIS in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula killed all 224 people and demonstrates the lethality and potential risk resulting from the proliferation of SAMs. I wonder how many SAMs are in the hands of malign actors as a result of Iranian support to proxies globally? Again, great data and thanks for sharing.

      • If ISIS did/does have SAMs, they are probably captured stockpiles from one of the conflicts in Libya, Syria, or Iraq. One of the more noteworthy accomplishments of ISIS was their nascent arms manufacturing capability. At the height of their power, they were manufacturing rockets, small arms, ammunition, chemical weapons, explosives, and attempting to create guided munitions—not to mention the drones. As far as training, you would be surprised how easy it is to find user manuals and videos to employ these systems online. It would not take a sophisticated organization to employ SAMs—especially the man-portable shoulder-fired type.

        • The paramilitary forces in the North African states have restorative tendencies, to counteract the effects of the Arab spring.
          Iran’s interests lie in the Gulf, so they would be only acting as an intermediary.
          In the past, Libya held close ties to Russia, which supports authoritarian regimes and a possible restitution of theocracies, these would take and pursue a pro Muscovite stance.
          These forces are supported by the Russia-Syria-Iran-NK (which merely acts as an agitator) axis, with Moscow being the central nexus, which is currently quite active in the Middle East and Africa.

  2. How many people believe in, if I’m to be blunt, that almost painfully blatant bullstory regarding the MH17 is insignificant. As a matter of fact, a metaphorical million of screaming Christians is more than capable of being wrong. Besides, there’s small matter of the overwhelming majority of these people having no idea whatsoever what they are even talking about.

    If they actually had, there would have been a lot less screaming, which is good. In the meantime, the useful tools from Bellingcat would have been forced to answer very awkward questions, which is added bonus.

    The story which is being endlessly regurgitated by the media is absurd. Utter absence of conclusive evidence notwithstanding, in reality it won’t even take much to bullshit-check it by yourself, for yourself. Simply look up the names of men in charge of the ‘designated shooter’s Btry, Bn, Bde, their XOs, Deputy Cdr Bde for Weaponry, et cetera. Pick up the phone, call the 53rd SAM Bde and try getting in contact with these individuals.

    For the most part you’ll succeed.

    Which is very telling in and of itself, because if Bellingcat/JIT joint brainfart indeed had any bearing in reality, these people would have been in part drummed out of the force, in part — ended up in jail. Fun part is, that would have happened *regardless* of their hypothetical involvement in the catastrophe with MH17.

    In reality the whole story not just looked completely unlike the above-bashed tale for stereotypical British housewives, it was great deal more complex than mere ‘mistaking airliner for airlift bird and shooting it down’.

    Not going to rob you of the fun solving this puzzle, but have a pretty transparent hint.

    The anti-air weapon system and missile that summarily dropped MH17 have long since been identified as Buk-M1 and 9M38-series respectively. In the meantime, the Russian MoD stays strong in its desire never to passes up opportunity to remind the world that Ukrainian combat aircraft had operated in the area at that time.

    It has exceptionally good reasons to do that.

    • I decided to go ahead and post this comment, even though I suspect it is “Russian spam.” The Bellingcat that is referred to in his post is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellingcat#MH17

      They are a British investigative journalism website that has been one of many who have concluded that most likely flight MH-17 was shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile. This I gather is also the conclusion of the Dutch investigating team and many (all?) western intelligence agencies. I gather almost everyone else who has looked into this subject outside of Russia has also reached that conclusion.

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