Coronavirus and the big seven

Not quite done blogging about the Coronavirus yet, as it is not quite done with us…yet.

The seven countries with the highest number of reported cases is the United States and six European Countries. These account for five of the ten richest countries in the world. They are shown below in order of number of cases (as of 9:33:26):

First is the United States (population 330 million) with 1,229K cases and over 73K deaths. This graph is of the number of cases over time, as are the rest.

Next is Spain (47 million) with 220K cases and 26K deaths.

Third on the list is Italy (60 million) with 214K cases and almost 30K deaths.

Fourth on the list is the United Kingdom (68 million) with 202K cases and over 30K deaths. The UK has clearly boggled their response worse than any other country on this listing, with the highest numbers of cases per capita and deaths per capita. This is from an island nation that had warning after Italy and Spain were struck with the virus.

Fifth is Russia (147 million) with 177K cases but only 1,625 deaths. This last figure is may be questionable. Right now their mortality rate is 0.92%.

Sixth is France (67 million) with 174K cases and 26K deaths.

Then there is Germany (83 million) with 168K cases and only 7,277 deaths. This is a morality rate of 4.33%, which is still high. Germany has certainly does the best job of all these countries in containing the virus. This is a country that is densely populated and mostly land borders. Their death figures are probably underreported due to their definitions of what constitutes a death due to coronavirus as opposed to other causes.

Also of note, are three other “western” countries: Canada, Netherlands and Belgium:

Canada (38 million) has 65K cases and only 4,366 deaths. Compared to the United States, it has 13% of the population, 5% of the cases and 6% of the deaths. Basically per capita, it infection and mortality rate is half compared to the United. U.S. mortality rate is 5.97%, strongly indicated that there are a lot more cases out there than we have not tested for. Canada’s mortality rate 6.75%, which means that they appear to have the same problem.

There is Belgium (11.5 million) with 51K cases and 8,415 deaths. This is more deaths than reported for Germany and the highest number of deaths per capita among these ten countries. Part of the reason may be again reporting, with Belgium claiming to be very “honest” in their reporting. In the end, people are going to have to look at “excess deaths” since the beginning of this year to get a proper feel of what the real comparative death counts are.

Finally, there is the Netherlands (17.5 million) has 42K case and 5,305 deaths.

It does appear like Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium and Holland are bringing the virus under control. Clearly the United States, United Kingdom, Russia and Canada have not.


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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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