Excess Mortality in Russia

Just saw some statistics on excess mortality in Russia. Apparently it is 230,000 people for 2020, with it being estimated by one expert that 81% are from Coronavirus. 81% of 230,000 is 186,300. 

See: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/28/russias-mortality-hit-16-year-high-in-november-official-data-says-a72505

The excess deaths graph in this chart is worth looking at, as it compares 2020 with 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019, each year separately graphed.

Anyhow, 186,300 to 230,000 excess deaths because of Coronavirus. John Hopkins lists their reported deaths at 56,798 as of 2:23 PM today. So, it appears that Coronavirus deaths were under-reported in Russia by a factor of 3.3 to 4.0. As military historians we are quite used to the Soviet Union under-reporting or obscuring their losses. Apparently, so does the Russian government. Reminds me of a song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ArlUSVDQIw

Anyhow, the excess mortality in the United States is around 400,000 or so. U.S. reported deaths from Coronavirus is 346,859. 

Excess Mortality | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

 

 

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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