So the Russian-Ukrainian Crisis is Over for now?

Well, it looks like Russia has pulled back some of its troops and equipment for the moment. So a lot of noise, but no action.

One does wonder why this occurred. Possibilities include:

1. They wanted to make a little noise to make some point to Ukraine. Possibly anger over President Zelensky banning three pro-Russian media channels and imposing sanctions against individuals and companies.

2. They wanted to make a little noise to tell the Biden administration that they needed to respect them (especially after Biden’s comments about Putin and the additional sanctions imposed).

3. They wanted a public test of their ability to respond to a crisis in Ukraine/Crimea.

4. They wanted a public test of their ability to respond to a crisis in Kaliningrad, their isolated city between Lithuania and Poland.

5. This may have been a “routine” training exercise.

6. They wanted to distract from the internal issues, especially Navalny and their shutting down of protests.

7. They just wanted to make a little noise so people still “respect” them.

8. Some or all of the above.

Anyhow, looks like things will be “peaceful” for another year. That said, there is still two armed and active “People’s Republics” in Donetsk and Lugansk, and there is still sniping and shelling and other activities. Ukraine is still losing a couple of soldiers of month from all this. They are still armed and active war zones.

 

Some stories:

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-orders-troops-withdraw-ukraine-162144377.html

https://www.unian.info/politics/sanctions-zelensky-enacts-nsdc-decision-against-95-companies-13-individuals-11396413.html

https://www.unian.info/politics/sanctions-zelensky-enacts-decree-on-27-ex-officials-incl-yanukovych-azarov-11383270.html

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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3 Comments

  1. . . . or a dress rehearsal?

    Interestingly, I know a Moscow-born woman (who is no fan of Putin, but who does appreciate strongmen enforcing law and order and keeping the store shelves stocked even though she suffered under Communism) who thinks that America should not involve itself in Russian-Ukrainian conflicts because Ukraine rightfully belongs to Russia.

    So, if a dress rehearsal, it might have been designed to gauge the likely reaction of both domestic and foreign audiences (as well as to provide practice for the troops and logisticians) in the event of a future opening-night.

  2. Yet, the problem is that certain Russians don’t see the Ukrainians as having a say in the matter (except to say, “we surrender”).

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