Well, it looks like Russia has pulled back some of its troops and equipment for the moment. So a lot of noise, but no action.
One does wonder why this occurred. Possibilities include:
1. They wanted to make a little noise to make some point to Ukraine. Possibly anger over President Zelensky banning three pro-Russian media channels and imposing sanctions against individuals and companies.
2. They wanted to make a little noise to tell the Biden administration that they needed to respect them (especially after Biden’s comments about Putin and the additional sanctions imposed).
3. They wanted a public test of their ability to respond to a crisis in Ukraine/Crimea.
4. They wanted a public test of their ability to respond to a crisis in Kaliningrad, their isolated city between Lithuania and Poland.
5. This may have been a “routine” training exercise.
6. They wanted to distract from the internal issues, especially Navalny and their shutting down of protests.
7. They just wanted to make a little noise so people still “respect” them.
8. Some or all of the above.
Anyhow, looks like things will be “peaceful” for another year. That said, there is still two armed and active “People’s Republics” in Donetsk and Lugansk, and there is still sniping and shelling and other activities. Ukraine is still losing a couple of soldiers of month from all this. They are still armed and active war zones.
Some stories:
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-orders-troops-withdraw-ukraine-162144377.html
. . . or a dress rehearsal?
Interestingly, I know a Moscow-born woman (who is no fan of Putin, but who does appreciate strongmen enforcing law and order and keeping the store shelves stocked even though she suffered under Communism) who thinks that America should not involve itself in Russian-Ukrainian conflicts because Ukraine rightfully belongs to Russia.
So, if a dress rehearsal, it might have been designed to gauge the likely reaction of both domestic and foreign audiences (as well as to provide practice for the troops and logisticians) in the event of a future opening-night.
Yea, I think the Ukrainians have some say in that also, and I believe they have spoken with the ouster of Yanukovich.
Yet, the problem is that certain Russians don’t see the Ukrainians as having a say in the matter (except to say, “we surrender”).