Noted an article yesterday:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-debated-attacking-taiwan-controlled-123900171.html
Basically, Taiwan is saying that China is considering invading Pratas island in 2024 or after (but not before 2024).
Now, Pratas Island is located 200 miles (310 kilometers) southeast of Hong Kong. It is 276 miles (444 kilometers) from Taiwan.
It is a circular atoll with a single island that is crescent-shaped (see picture). It is that little piece of land in the western part of the atoll with a lagoon.
The island is about 430 acres (174 hectares) and measure 1.7 miles long (2.8 kilometers) and is only about a half-mile wide (0.537 miles or 0.865 kilometers). Not exactly a prize the size of Taiwan. There are “numerous” oil wells to the west of island. Not sure how much, if any, oil is being pumped there.
The height of the island at the base of the “The Pratas Triangulation Point” is 2.4875 meters (8.16 feet). Sea levels are currently projected to rise 2-3 feet by the end of this century, so I gather this island is going to get smaller over time.
According to Wikipedia there are about 500 Taiwanese marines stationed there. The island has no permanent inhabitants. (see: Pratas Island – Wikipedia).
Now, I am not sure I am going to loose a lot of sleep over this one.
- It is a fairly insignificant piece of terrain.
- No one lives there.
- Is China really going to take the political and economic hit to take this?
If China grabbed the island, they were certainly take a political hit. They are not exactly the most popular country in the world right now, and this would have a negative impact to their world image and standing. I assume the local defense force would defend it, making it a bloody conquest. What would be the cost of this?
Militarily, it would serve to justify increases in the U.S., Taiwanese, South Korean and Japanese defense budgets.
Economically, it might have little impact, but two of China’s major trading partners are the United States and Taiwan. There might be limited or extensive economic sanctions.
Is this a hit that China is willing to take?
Hard to see any rational reason for occupying such an island. The only reason I can think of is to start an gradual process of absorbing Taiwan by testing the resolve of China’s opponents. If it does occupy the island it could be seen as setting a precedent for absorbing other parts of Taiwan gradually over the next few years. IMHO China seems to prefer a gradual but inexorable advance. Nothing too sudden but no going back.
Why this particular island? Because it is uninhabited? Strategic location?
There are a number of other Taiwanese islands geographically closer to Mainland China. I remember this from reading a spy novel. LOL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_islands_of_Taiwan
Maybe they will turn it into a holiday resort.