Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.
Makes you wonder what Russia’s intentions are. I hope Putin (is there any other decision maker?) realizes that the West will impose crippling sanctions. And I hope he does not believe his own propaganda and understands that there is as much a likelihood of NATO invading Russia from Ukraine (should Ukraine join NATO) as there is from the Baltic States, i.e. ZERO. So, what is the purpose of invading? Is he so fearful of his position in Russia that he needs a foreign distraction?
I don’t think Western sanctions will be “crippling”, states with far less resilient economies than Russia’s have survived sanctions regimes: Iran, North Korea, Iraq, Venezuela, Cuba, Zimbabwe, Sudan and so on. It’s a symbolic fig leaf so the West can be seen as doing something without incurring real costs.
As for NATO – look at it from the Russian perspective. What is NATO? A military alliance, no one disputes that. What is the sole purpose of a military alliance? To counter or balance against threats. So what threat to Transatlantic/European security is NATO countering that requires 30 nation-states and a nuclear deterrent? Al Qaeda? Or Russia? The answer is obvious.
At any rate, NATO should have been disbanded after the Cold War and we wouldn’t have this mess. What’s going on right now is a classic example of the security dilemma. Russia seeks security from NATO/Western Europe (wherein several invasions of Russia did emanate), NATO states seek security from Russia, and the spiral continues. In this case, I think Russia is reactive not aggressive, Putin feels he has no choice.
“Makes me wonder what the 35 air defense battalions are going to do?”
Perhaps to be prepared against NATO airstrikes?
And about the “75%” remark, is the Russian army that small?
Answering myself after reading the article:
“This includes some 120 of Russia’s total estimated 160 Battalion Tactical Groups or BTGs which are positioned within 60km of Ukraine, according to the official. While that figure represents 75% of Russia’s principal combat units, it is less than half of the total troops in the Russian military.”
I would like to wargame a Russian attack on Ukraine. Does anyone have information on the structure and composition of the Russian or Ukranian forces at a detailed combat unit level?
Looks like it is started….
Real shame. We do have family in both Kiev and Moscow.
Best wishes for them.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/F85d_d8qIbM
Saw that one… disgusting.