Article: “How Western Experts Got the Ukraine War so Wrong”

Just got in my email box from the Geopolitical Monitor dated 13 October 2022 written by Taras Kuzio called “How Western Experts Got the Ukraine War so Wrong.” I think this is worth repeating, so I have posted it here:  How Western Experts Got the Ukraine War So Wrong | Geopolitical Monitor. Hopefully this does not violate any policies of theirs.

In the fourth paragraph, they name the guilty parties (the experts who were wrong). They continue naming them in paragraphs 5, 6, 7 and 10. This is always a controversial step, but I think one that sometimes needs to be done. If people’s scholarship is leading them to make predictions, then the accuracy of their predictions directly reflect on their scholarship. Perhaps it is time for the “community” to ignore those scholars who are consistently wrong.

Note this article also addresses issues with Net Assessment.

Anyhow, this is worth reading. 

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

Articles: 1516


  1. I would go even further and say that these self-appointed experts are to blame for the situation Ukraine is in now. Because of their wrong thinking and predictions, arms deliveries were denied for years.

    Not only the Russians, but also these arrogant “experts” have the blood on the hands of a wonderful Ukrainian people striving for democracy

    For the reparation of their epically wrong statements they should rebuild the country with their hands. Then at least they will see what they have done. And they can hope for forgiveness on the spot.

    Слава Україні (Sláva Ukrayíni)

  2. “I would go even further and say that these self-appointed experts are to blame for the situation Ukraine is in now. ”

    That is a useless simplification. To make a good assesment you have to quantify morale. Almost everybody used the data from 2014, when we saw a morale issue in the Ukranian military and politics as reference point. Could you really blame them – even the Russians got ist wrong.

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