So has the Spring Offensive started?

So, has the Spring Offensive started and no one has really noticed it? There are a few people who claim that it has:

Opinion | Counteroffensive against Russia is Ukraine’s D-Day – The Washington Post 

Now I have not read this article as I am too cheap to subscribe, as usually significant parts of it are requoted elsewhere: WP: First Stage Of AFU Counter-Offensive Is Higher Than Expected – Belarusian News – Charter’97 (

Probably the most interesting quote is from Col, Roman Svitan “At the moment, the Ukrainian military is conducting “forming’ operations…’This is not the main blow yet.‘” (my bolding).

Another supportive article (still quotes the Washington Post).

Ukraine Situation Report: Offensive Going Better Than Expected, U.S. Says (

On the other hand, other commentators are not really saying this:

Update from Ukraine | Is it the start of the Ukrainian Counterattack? New Achievements – YouTube

Update from Ukraine | Who blown up the Dam? Ukraine Lost Leopard-2 John Deer Modification – YouTube (discussion on dam continues to 11:32, when he switches to discussion of the front line).

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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  1. I guess that when the Leopards make an appearance, we can be sure.
    Although the russians are seeing them everywhere 😀

  2. Yeah that’s the one.
    Looks like the ukranians are attacking in the most obvious direction, and using the western equipment… I wonder if it’s “too good to be true” and maybe itś a feint and the main attack may be elsewhere.

  3. I realy hope these new attacks are meant to draw attention from the main effort, that will be directed eastward from them – toward Volnovakha, a major hub of rail & roads.

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