Of course, the main offensive this summer has been the Russian offensive towards Pokrovsk. The Second Battle of Kursk is kind of a sideshow. But this offensive toward Pokrovsk has been dragging on all summer, advancing very slowly across ground of no particular significance towards an objective of no particular significance. Lately, as they get nearer to Pokrovsk, the Russian offensive has slowed down from a crawl to a snail’s pace (these are precise technical terms). The Russians are currently from 7 to 12 kilometers from Pokrovsk.
The significance of this ground is that it is clear that Russian expects a ceasefire to be negotiated at some point (this fall, next fall, the fall after next fall?). When a ceasefire is negotiated, Russia expects to keep anything it has taken. Over the course of this entire summer, it has taken about 1,000 square kilometers (an area about the size of Fairfax County). I gather they are assuming that this will be part of their gains for “new Russia.” So, while the ground it not particular significant militarily or even economically, it is part of what appears to be a permanent expansion of the Russian border, fought over each square kilometer at a time (there are 2.59 square kilometers of a square mile).
Just for the record, Pokrovsk is large town with a population of 60,127 in 2022. It is 56 kilometers (35 miles) northwest of Donetsk and is the administrative center of the Pokrovsk Raion. The Pokrovsk Raion has an area of 1,316 square kilometers (508 square miles) and a 2022 estimated population of 386,451. In the 2001 census 87% of the people were Ukrainian, 11% were Russian. In the town of Prokrovsk it was 75% Ukrainian, 22% Russian. The composer Sergie Prokofiev (1891-1953) was born here (at Sontsivka) and died in Moscow the same day as Stalin. He is buried at Novodevichy Cemetery (along with Khrushchev and half the senior commanders at the Battle of Kursk, see my big book for their grave pictures).
So, @Warmapper has been faithfully tracking this offensive for a while. It is listed in Wikipedia as starting 18 July 2024 and is still going on. This is date of the capture of the small village Prohres. There was an offensive going on before that, starting with the Battle of Avdiivka (10 October 2023 – 17 February 2024) and continuing up to the capture of Prohres. Let us crib some maps from Warmapper for a moment:
This map is dated 24 August 2024. The part in blue is the pre-February 2022 border of the DPR. One can see their push from the border near Avdiivka toward Pokrovsk. This is an advance of around 40 kilometers. Not exactly earthshaking and not all done this year.
Here is the advance as of 30 August (zoomed in):
The real danger is if the Ukrainian Army is getting so ground down as be unable to hold the line and Russia achieves a penetration. This was probably a more serious concern a month ago, but with Russia slowing, it is looking less likely. Also, the weather will get colder and sometime in November, operations will have to halt. So, if Ukraine can hold for the next two months, then it is probably good until spring 2025. It is debatable at this point if Russia will get to Pokrovsk, let alone take it.
I am not sure I am going to put together a blog post on losses in the Pokrovsk campaign like I did for Kursk (see: So what have the Russians lost around Sudzha? – The Dupuy Institute).
