30-Day Ceasefire?

The U.S. and Ukraine have agreed to a thirty-day ceasefire. Russia now has to agree.

Terms are (according to the news reports):

  • Immediate 30-day ceasefire.
  • The United States immediately lifts its pause on sharing intelligence with Ukraine and resumes security assistance to that country.
    • This appears to occur even if Russia does not agree to the plan. 
  • U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to conclude “as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources.”

The ceasefire would halt all hostilities, “not just for missiles, drones and bombs, not just in the Black Sea, but along the entire front line.” (Zelenskyy)

The U.S. and Ukrainian delegations said the interim, month-long ceasefire “can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties.” (joint statement)

Now, have no idea if this has been properly prepped with Russia or not. They could turn it down. I would not be surprised if they insist on Ukraine withdrawing from Kursk area before they agree. 

Anyhow, it is a proposed 30-day ceasefire.

  1. It does not guarantee it will be extended.
  2. Does not address any of the issues that caused the war.
  3. Does not provide any security guarantees for Ukraine.
  4. It leaves 20% of Ukraine in Russia hands.

We shall see if it is agreed to and, if agreed to, how long it stands. We have been down this road before (2014-2022).

 

 Copy of Joint Statement:

Text of US-Ukraine statement paving way for resumption of aid, intelligence sharing

Other Sources:

Ukraine agrees to U.S.-led ceasefire plan if Russia accepts

US and Ukraine call for 30-day ceasefire following Saudi talks

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

Articles: 1591

5 Comments

  1. So that’s a 30 day window in which to rest, restock, resupply, and get organized for the next round. 30 days takes us to April whatever depending upon the date of Russia’s reply. Will that get everyone past the spring rainy season and allow the ground to dry out?

  2. I like it. It renews US intel sharing and military supplies. All the issues you mentioned can be negotiated during the cease fire.

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