The U.S. and Ukraine have agreed to a thirty-day ceasefire. Russia now has to agree.
Terms are (according to the news reports):
- Immediate 30-day ceasefire.
- The United States immediately lifts its pause on sharing intelligence with Ukraine and resumes security assistance to that country.
- This appears to occur even if Russia does not agree to the plan.
- U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to conclude “as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources.”
The ceasefire would halt all hostilities, “not just for missiles, drones and bombs, not just in the Black Sea, but along the entire front line.” (Zelenskyy)
The U.S. and Ukrainian delegations said the interim, month-long ceasefire “can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties.” (joint statement)
Now, have no idea if this has been properly prepped with Russia or not. They could turn it down. I would not be surprised if they insist on Ukraine withdrawing from Kursk area before they agree.
Anyhow, it is a proposed 30-day ceasefire.
- It does not guarantee it will be extended.
- Does not address any of the issues that caused the war.
- Does not provide any security guarantees for Ukraine.
- It leaves 20% of Ukraine in Russia hands.
We shall see if it is agreed to and, if agreed to, how long it stands. We have been down this road before (2014-2022).
Copy of Joint Statement:
Text of US-Ukraine statement paving way for resumption of aid, intelligence sharing
Other Sources:
Ukraine agrees to U.S.-led ceasefire plan if Russia accepts
US and Ukraine call for 30-day ceasefire following Saudi talks
So that’s a 30 day window in which to rest, restock, resupply, and get organized for the next round. 30 days takes us to April whatever depending upon the date of Russia’s reply. Will that get everyone past the spring rainy season and allow the ground to dry out?
Yep, could be.
I like it. It renews US intel sharing and military supplies. All the issues you mentioned can be negotiated during the cease fire.
It does appear to immediately remove these bans, so they are not conditional upon Russian acceptance.
I don’t see Putin accepting it.