Presentation on the New Science of Causality and Evidence on Friday, 21 November, 300 PM EST

Dr. Douglas Samuelson will be giving a presentation on the New Science of Causality and Evidence at George Mason on this Friday, 21 November, 3oo PM (EST). It is also available on Zoom. This is an extension of the presentation he gave at the Fourth HAAC  (see: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute). We have not posted up the videos yet from that conference.

Anyhow, the complete announcement is below:

Speaker: Doug Samuelson, D.Sc., InfoLogix and The Dupuy Institute
 
Title: The New Science of Causality and Evidence, and SIPMath
 
Abstract: We have seen a divergence between the science of association, generally expressed in statistics, and the probative efforts used in litigation. Law practice has expanded into more use of statistics and probability, but law and probability have remained largely out of touch with each other in research. Bringing more probabilistic insights into explorations of causality and evidence is even more important now because of the increasing use of AI, agent-based simulation, and complex systems analysis, all of which defy most probability-centric methods of validation. We note also that ALL observations are somewhat uncertain, because observations take place through media (photons, electron beams, whatever) that are inherently uncertain. We need to find rigorous ways to express causality, including partial and uncertain causation, using evidence which falls short of certainty.  Inference based on Stochastic Information Packets, already used with considerable success in risk analysis, provides a promising way forward.
 
Location: Center on Social Complexity Suite (3rd floor, Research Hall) and online (use Zoom link below)
 
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You are invited to a scheduled Zoom meeting.
 
Topic: CSS 898/CSI 899 – Friday CDS seminar
Date and time: Nov 21, 2025 03:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) and every week on Friday
 
Please download and import the following iCalendar (.ics) files to your calendar system.
 
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Meeting ID: 987 4541 8358
Passcode: 694458
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Meeting ID: 987 4541 8358
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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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