Isfaran
Isfaran is the third largest city in Iran. It has a population of around 2,238,000 (2025 estimate) and a metro area of almost 4 million (3,989,070 2025 estimate). It is kind of in the middle of nowhere. It is 270 miles (440 kilometers) south of Tehran and 197 miles (318 kilometers) from the Persian Gulf.
The reason it has people’s attention is that in addition to all its industry (some of it defense), it is suspected of being the primary location for Iran’s nuclear weapon development program and where it stores most of its enriched uranium (in June 2022 the IAEA reported that 90% of Iran’s most highly enriched uranium was moved to Isfaran). We have obviously destroyed a lot of their gear and equipment, but we have not eliminated their enriched uranium. They supposedly have enough enriched uranium for six nuclear weapons (IAEA in September 2008). It is believed to be buried near Isfaran. Therefore, some people are discussing a ground operation.
The uranium is 60% enriched. At around 90% enriched it becomes usable for weapon use. Therefore this is a potential threat, not an actual threat. They reportedly have around 200 kilograms (441 pounds) of it. Uranium is heavy. so I gather this makes up only 0.37 cubic feet (10.5 cubic centimeters) of material. This is not a huge cache.
The city is some 197 miles (318 kilometers) from the Persian Gulf, 590 miles (950 kilometers) from deeper water shelf of the Gulf of Oman (the more likely place our carriers are going to operate from) and around 232 miles (373 kilometers) from the Iraqi border.
It is not conveniently located for any ground operations or sea-based insertion. Caracas was located on the Caribbean Sea and that was a high-risk operation. This is located significantly inland and away from any borders.
Persia does have the distinct history of being an unconquered independent country for 1,375 years. There is a reason for that, some of that related to geography.
View of Isfaran and Naqsh-e Jahan Square (Pedram Forouzanfar, 23 April 2020)
That is a good succinct summary. It helps clarify what is going on in Iran at present.
Thanks.
IMHO – The fundamental issue the war is being fought over is whether or not Iran can be stopped from developing nuclear weapons.
However, the Iranian regime has not been decapitated, and in fact has managed to recover and elect a new leader without Trump’s approval. Also, it has managed to keep the Straits of Hormuz closed in spite of the missile attacks from Israel and the US and so impose considerable economic pressure on the rest of the world. This indicates that Iran will not stop developing nuclear weapons unless it is defeated in a war!
As far as I can see the next step will have to be a direct attack on Isfahan to destroy the nuclear weapons and the development facilities – possibly a protracted siege rather than a single attack. The facilities are probably DEEP underground and not quickly and easily destroyed by some Bunker Busters.
The Dupuy summary shows that Isfahan is remote and isolated in the desert. Consequently, the logistic effort will be considerable, and any siege will be costly (lives and $) and protracted. Every drop of water, fuel and every military and medical facility will have to be delivered and maintained over a long period.
It therefore seems to me that this is going to be a protracted war that draws in a number of US allies (e.g. Australia) and that the economic impact will be considerable.
City is called Isfahan also the “country” of Persia is much older than 1,375 years.
I think I referred to it as the third largest city in Iran in the first sentence. Persia was conquered 633 to 651. I meant to say something like “unconquered” for 1375 years. Have revised it.
The Achaemenid Dynasty persisted from 550 to 330 BCE. The Sassanids fell in the 7th century if I recall correctly, but the term Iran regained political significance only after the 16th century.
The modern Iranian state was founded in 1979. From a political perspective this is far more relevant, just like the Pahlavi centralization (1925), since we are almost comparing different people and civilizations, instead of relying on mere dynastic definitions.
IMHO – The importance of Isfahan is that it is the next main battleground in the Middle East conflict.
Iran has survived the “decapitation” and is surviving the current bombardment while keeping the Straits of Hormuz closed and bombarding the Gulf states (e.g. UAE) to inflict economic damage on the West. If the aim of the current combatants is to stop Iran building nuclear weapons then they are stalled and probably losing. The only way to achieve the objective now is to put boots on the ground and attack Isfahan directly to destroy the underground nuclear facilities. This would be a difficult costly siege in terms of casualties and logistics. Russia and China are watching to see whether the US and its allies are sufficiently powerful to succeed or whether it is their turn to assume the mantle of most powerful coalition in the world.
As Napoleon said – “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
Thank you Chris for raising the issue of Isfahan is such a timely fashion.
Senator Lindsey Graham is saying that Iran in their negotiations claimed to have 460 kg of 60% enriched uranium, for the potential to make ten nuclear bombs.
See: https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/2033944059417395247
The International Atomic Energy Agency site reports:-
“”WASHINGTON, March 18 (Reuters) – The International Atomic Energy Agency does not know the status of the new Iranian enrichment facility in Isfahan that is in an underground nuclear complex, agency chief Rafael Grossi said on Wednesday.
“It is underground, but we haven’t visited it yet,” said Grossi, who is in Washington for a conference and to hold talks with Trump administration officials.
CBS report “The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency said Thursday that “a lot has survived” of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and military operations alone cannot destroy them.”
A land invasion is starting to look more likely. This short video gives an idea of the formidable obstacles involved.
https://www.facebook.com/reel/780727718447530