Battle for Taiwan #4

Latest article on Taiwan published by TDI associates William A. Sayers and Julian Spencer-Churchill. This is worth a read. It addresses some of the claims made by people who tend to overrate China’s amphibious capability by the use of civilian craft. The article is: “China Cannot Yet a Beach on Taiwan.” It is on real clear defense here: https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2026/08/25/china_cannot_yet_hold_a_beach_on_taiwan_1202270.html?utm_source=nl&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=rcd-amrecon-2026-08-25&mc_cid=e51569dd59&mc_eid=8154149f25

As Dr. Spencer-Churchill notes: “China’s military is not yet strong enough to take a port on Taiwan’s coast, which we demonstrate through accessible $10 wargaming – transparent and reproducible. China still lacks sealift and cannot move inland faster than Taiwan can counter-concentrate. In an upcoming article, we show China has a better chance of landing on beaches between Tainan and Taizhong.”

Their work will be presented at the upcoming Fifth HAAC. Both “Chip” Sayers and Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill will be presenting at the conference. See: HAAC 2026: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

The Fifth HAAC is from 20 – 22 October in Tysons Corner Virginia (near DC). Tickets are available from Event Brite: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tuesday, October 20  •  8 AM – 6 PM | Eventbrite.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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