Date of Domestication of Horses
More on horses: Earlier Date Suggested for Horse Domestication
3,500 B.C. in Kazakh steppes (vice the old date of 2,500 B.C.).
The Dupuy Institute
Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis
The Dupuy Institute
Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis
Mystics & Statistics
Ambling
This is not related to anything we are doing, although I found it interesting: Vikings Possibly Spread Smooth-Riding Horses Around the World
- Apparently the ability of a horse to “amble” (as opposed to walk, trot, canter or gallop) is limited to certain breeds of horses and is tied to a single gene mutation.
- These “mutated horses” existed in the Danelaw area of England in the 9th century.
- Therefore (and this is the weak link in their argument), they may have been spread by Vikings across the world (or maybe they were transported by Vikings to England from another place in the world).
Anyhow, I have not figured out how this is relevant to modern combat, but I still find it interesting.
Kennedy and Vietnam
No quantitative analysis here, but a decent and balanced look at Kennedy’s thinking on Vietnam in 1963, when we had more than 16,000 advisors committed but had not yet put in combat troops: Kennedy and Vietnam
A couple of salient points:
- His ruminations on a Congo intervention are particularly interesting: “I assume this probably won’t be successful. Nothing ever seems to be….”
- Concerning the Congo: “He also reiterated the need for an expert military assessment ‘of the chances of its [US military intervention] success'”
- Conclusion: “My view, rooted in the documents and tape recordings at the JFK Library, does not support the conclusions of either Kennedy advocates or critics.”
The U.S. at the end of 1960, under Eisenhower, the U.S had 685 troops in South Vietnam. Under Kennedy, at the end of 1961 it was 3,164, in 1962 it was 11,326 and in 1963 it was 16,263. Under Johnson, it continued to grow to 23,210 in 1964 and 184,314 at the end of 1965. At the end of 1968 it was at 536,040 (source: DISS — Dupuy Insurgency Spread Sheets).
War by Numbers Release Date
University of Nebraska Press (which owns Potomac Books) just posted the following announcement on War by Numbers: War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat
It is part of their spring/summer releases. The book may be in the warehouse and available for sale by mid-June.
According to U. of N. Press, the book is 498 pages, 231 tables, 2 charts and 49 graphs. Not sure that this is the final page count as my manuscript is only 342 pages and 121,094 words. I have not seen the final edited manuscript.
I have developed a course from this book called “Data for Wargames.” Will be giving presentations on the book and the course in early October at The Military Conflict Institute (TMCI) meeting in Alexandria, VA (more on this later).
The Great Russian Recession
The Russian Recession has dragged on for 18 months now: Russian Recession
A few significant points:
- Economy shrunk 3.7% in 2015
- Expected to shrinking 1.2% this year.
- Expected to start growing again in 2017.
- Russian parliamentary elections are next month. Probably not going to be very earthshaking.
- Just for comparison, the “Great Recession” in the U.S. lasted 18 months, started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009.
- Or is that 12-months, from Q3 2008 to Q2 2009?
- In 2008 it was a 0.3% drop in GDP
- In 2009 it was a 2.8% drop in GDP.
- In 2010 GDP grew 2.5%
- Date source: Annual Growth Data
Not much more to say on this, just kind of waiting to see what happens.
We Have 4,000+ Troops in Iraq Now
Another Iraq article: Airstrikes
A couple of things that caught my attention:
- 9,400 coalition airstrikes (in Iraq and Syria?) since August 8, 2014
- 55 civilians killed by airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, or 1,568 depending on who you wish to believe.
- 3,800 U.S forces currently in Iraq
- not including hundreds who are on temporary duty
- not including 560 additional troops approved last month?
- Are we going to be over 5,000?
Does anyone know what the current Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) is?
So You Still Think You Want A Revolution In Military Affairs?
“I think we are on the cusp of a fundamental change in the character of ground warfare,” U.S. Army chief of staff Gen. Mark Milley told an audience at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., on June 23. “It will be of such significance that it will be like the rifling of a musket or the introduction of a machine gun or it will have such significance impact as the change from horse to mechanized vehicles.”
Revolutionary new technologies such as nanotechnology, robotics and artificial intelligence will drive that fundamental change. But while Milley said that a revolution is coming, how exactly the character of ground warfare will shape up remains an open question. “Exactly what that’s going to look like, I don’t know,” Milley said. “I just know that we’re there. We’re on the leading edge of it. I think we’ve got a few years to figure it out—probably less than ten. But I think by 2025, you’re going to see armies—not only the American Army but armies around the world—will be fundamentally and substantively different than they are today.”
Whether technological change will radically change the nature of warfare remains to be seen. The Army is nevertheless pushing forward with changes in training and force structure to adapt to new tactics and technologies already being used by other combatants.
In related news, the Army’s Paladin Integrated Management program to upgrade 133 M109A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzers to M109A7’s to improve the weapon’s reliability, maintainability, performance, responsiveness, and lethality has run into problems. The Department of Defense Inspector General found the M109A7 failed to meet maximum rate-of-fire requirements in tests and requires additional fire extinguisher capabilities in crew compartments. Army observers have warned of recent advances in Russian artillery technology and the need for effective countering capabilities. Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld cancelled the Army’s proposed next-generation XM2001 Crusader self-propelled howitzer in 2002.
5,000
Key quote: “We still anticipate that somewhere between 5,000 or so fighters are inside Mosul,” Garver said. “We’re still anticipating a tough fight.”
There are also ISIL fighters outside of Mosul. Note that the article states that Mosul is the home of 2 million. This is probably not the case after two years of Islamic State rule. I have seen estimates as low as 500,000.
Islamic State Strength Estimates
We have no way of confirming the accuracy of these estimates (unlike our work during the Iraq and Afghan insurgencies), but a somewhat negative article on the Iraqi Army published in the New York Times in June does provide strength estimates for the Islamic State. The article is: New York Times Article
A few details:
- “The Islamic State has roughly 19,000 to 25,000 fighters, about half in Iraq and half in Syria…”
- “Most of the 10,000 to 12,000 in Iraq are concentrated around Mosul, in the Tal Afar area, and elsewhere in Nineveh Province.”
More on the Mosul Offensive
The article here is a nice summary of the situation. Mark Perry is an old friend of The Dupuy Institute. It does have a political slant in its introduction, but the rest of it is good analysis. We usually try to avoid politics in this blog.
A few highlights:
- Offensive is now tentatively schedule to begin sometime in early October.
- …with a final battle for Mosul coming at the end of October (and therefore the political slant to the article).
- The attack might be coordinated with an attack on Raqqa in Syria, the capital of the shrinking Islamic State.
- U.S. advisors are with Iraqi units at the battalion-level.
- Over 200 U.S. advisors are at al-Qayyarah air base, 40 miles south of Mosul.
- There is an effort to include local Sunni’s in the effort, along with a CENTCOM estimate that Anbar’s Sunnis can contribute at most 10,000 soldiers to the Mosul effort.