It does not look like that any substantive and meaningful peace agreement will be happening in the Russo-Ukrainian War in the first half of 2025. It looks like the fighting will continue during the spring and summer of 2025. Perhaps substantive discussion can restart in the fall of 2025.
The current status of peace negotiations is that they have de-facto agreed to cease bombing each other’s energy structures. There is no written agreement on this. They are still bombing everything else, with volleys of 100+ drones and missiles being launched at Ukraine every few days and dozens of civilians in cities far from the front line being killed or wounded.
There is an also a minerals exploitation agreement being discussed between the U.S. and Ukraine, that has yet to be finalized and signed. Something will probably happen with that as Ukraine needs to reach some kind of settlement with the Trump administration to guarantee minimal levels of support.
There is also an ongoing discussion of a Black Sea Truce. Not sure that is very significant as Ukraine controls the western Black Sea and is regularly shipping grain and other products in/out of Odessa.
U.S. support for Ukraine in FY2026 (which starts in October 2025) is still undetermined. Congress passed a continuing resolution to cover the rest of FY2025 and there is not a clear bill, let alone a clear Ukrainian aid bill set up for FY2026. The House and the Senate appear to have very different ideas of what should be funded, as of course, do the Republicans and Democrats. The House is currently split 220-213 with 2 vacant seats. The Senate is currently split 53-47, with both houses of congress controlled by the Republicans. The way the political winds are blowing at the moment, it does appear like the Republicans are going to lose control of the House in November 2026. Not sure how all this impacts aid to Ukraine but it is possible that it will terminated in FY2026 and reinstated in CY2007.
Meanwhile, on the fighting front, the weather will be getting better come the second half of May and ground operations can start in earnest then. Not sure what will be happening, but suspect Russian will continue offensive operations in Kursk province and in the Donbas. They still do not completely control the four oblasts that they claim (and have formally annexed), with them controlling almost all of Lugansk, the majority of Donetsk, and the minority (and not the capital cities) of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. They also control Crimea and Sevastopol. They clearly want to expand their control of these four oblasts for the sake of future negotiations. Obviously, Ukraine would also be served to retake land, but not sure what offensives they are considering for 2025.
Therefore, it appears that the war will continue unabated until the autumn rains.
