Category Iraq

They are on Schedule

Well, they are on schedule: iraqi-forces-attempt-first-push-mosul

Two weeks ago Peshmerga Brigadier General Sidwan Barzani (nephew of the president and telecom millionaire) said that there would be a two-week advance and a six-week mop up. So far, they appear to be on schedule. I do note that a number of the talking heads on U.S. TV seemed to discount this prediction.

Anyhow, they have entered the eastern suburbs of Mosul today (Monday). We shall see if this is over in six weeks.

Syria and Iraq After The Islamic State

As Iraqi forces close in on the northern city of Mosul, the commander of U.S Joint Task Force-INHERENT RESOLVE, Army Lieutenant General Stephen Townsend, indicated on Wednesday that preparations are being accelerated for isolating Raqaa, Syria, the capital of the Islamic State. The attack could begin within two weeks, The Daily Beast’s Nancy Youssef reported on Thursday. Townsend stated that the timing is being influenced by evidence of Daesh planning for terrorist attacks on unidentified targets in the West.

According to Townsend, the projected offensive against Raqaa will include elements of the Syrian Kurd YPG militia. “The only force that is capable on any near term timeline are the Syrian Democratic Forces, of which the YPG are a significant portion,” Townsend said. “We’ll move soon to isolate Raqqa with the forces that are ready to go.”

Although YPG has not stated whether it is willing to participate in an attack on Raqaa, Turkey has expressed its opposition to involving the Syrian Kurds, which it says will “endanger the future of Syria.” Turkey is actively fighting a domestic Kurdish insurgency and has launched military strikes on Syrian and Iraqi Kurdish forces.

The U.S.’s willingness to back the Syrian Kurdish forces over Turkey’s objections are a clear harbinger of the challenges facing the region even after Mosul and Raqaa are liberated from Daesh control. Liberating Raqaa will not end the civil war in Syria and will not spell the end of Daesh. Daesh forces still control wide swaths of territory in Syria. Will the U.S. remain committed to fighting Daesh in Syria after Raqaa falls?

U.S. and Iraqi military leaders have predicted that Daesh will continue to wage an insurgency in Iraq as a potent guerilla force. After Mosul falls, the Iraqi government faces the prospect of a grinding, open-ended counterinsurgency effort fueled by unresolved sectarian divisions. Is the U.S. prepared to maintain its support for open-ended Iraqi counterinsurgency operations after Mosul is recaptured?

Interwoven into these questions are bigger, regional questions. Will the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds be allowed political autonomy in those parts of Syria and Iraq liberated from Daesh control? Will the Free Syrian Forces become the de-facto government over the parts of Syria not under Assad’s control? What is Iraqi Kurdistan’s future in Iraq? While the liberation of Mosul and Raqaa will constitute manifest defeats for Daesh, these forthcoming victories do not appear that they will be decisive in resolving the ongoing local and regional political conflicts.

Wounded-To-Killed Ratios

Some wounded-to-killed ratios drawn from my upcoming book War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat. I have an entire chapter on the subject in my book (Chapter Fifteen: Casualties). This first chart is from Trevor Dupuy’s Attrition:

table01

A table I created to compare U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps ratios:

table02

A tabled I created looking at the U.S. units the I Corps area of Vietnam. This is after the Tet offensive, and these units are operating side-by-side and listed from north to south. The 1st Bde, 5th ID was up at the DMZ while the 23rd (Americal) Division was in the southern part of I Corps:

table03

And finally the ratios from Iraq and Afghanistan. Note these are higher ratios compared to what is reported in the previous post for the Iraqi Army and the Peshmerga.

table04

This is why the Iraq Army and Peshmerga wounded-to-kill ratio in the previous post caught my attention.

NOTES

[1] Table from Attrition: Forecasting Battles Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War, page 49. The dates for the wars were added by this author.

Body Counts

Have some estimate of losses from the operations around Mosul. See: us-general-says-800-900-fighters-killed-mosul

This operations have been going on since Monday, October 17, so I am guessing they cover a 10 day or so period.

A few factoids:

  1. Up to 900 Islamic State fighters killed (source: Gen. Joseph Votel, who heads the U.S. Central Command).
  2. There are between 3,500 – 5,000 ISIL fighters in Mosul (I assume we have not really engaged them yet).
  3. Up to another 2,000 ISIL fighters in the broader area (I assume this is who they have been fighting).
  4. As of late Tuesday Iraq Army had lost 57 killed and 255 or so wounded.
  5. For the Kurdish Peshmerga the numbers are 30 killed and 70- 100 wounded.

Let me do a little back-of-the-envelope calculations here:

  1. 900 ISIL killed versus 87 allied killed = 10.3-to-1 exchange ratio. This seems high.
  2. Wounded-to-killed ratio Iraq Army = 4.47 wounded per killed (this seems low)
  3. Wounded-to-killed ratio Peshmerga = 3.33 wounded per killed (this seems low)
  4. Wounded-to-killed ratio ISIL…unknown, but with 900 killed then are there 1,800 are 2,700 wounded…or are there no wounded?
  5. If there are wounded, then if total ISIL casualties (killed, wounded and missing) are 2,700 – 3,600 and there are 2,000 ISIL fighters in the broader area…..then…….

The body count seems high. What appeared to be more relevant in Vietnam was the number of rifles and other personal weapons taken after the battle. The assumption was that most dead warriors left a weapon on the battlefield. Often the weapon count was less than half the estimated number of killed.

It appears that the estimate of 900 ISIL killed may be high and the Iraq Army and Peshmerga reports of wounded are low. This seems to happen a lot.

More than Halfway to Mosul

iraqvillagebartella

Anyhow, this week it appears that the Iraqis have advanced more than halfway to Mosul. The town of Bartella was freed on Thursday: Raise flag in Bartella

They are now only 9 miles from Mosul. When the offensive started, it was more like 20 miles from the East. So progress is being made. Perhaps they will stick to the Peshmerga Brigadier General Barzani’s schedule of getting to Mosul in two weeks. The forces that took Bartella were Iraqi Army Special Forces vice Pesmerga.

By the way, Bartella has been a Christian center for almost 900 years. They had a population of around 30,000 before ISIL took over: Bartella

Duration Estimate II

Retired Major General “Spider” Marks was on CNN this morning. He did not buy into the estimate of Mosul being taken in two-three months.

I suspect the duration will be driven by three or four factors:

  1. How serious of a fight ISIL puts up in the areas in front of and around Mosul. I don’t think they will, as this is where they are going to get unfavorable exchanges and take considerable losses. So far it does not seem like they are putting up that serious of resistance.
  2. How many people they decide to leave behind in Mosul. In the Second Battle of Fallujah (2004) the insurgents may have left behind less than a thousand fighters. Don’t have the stats at hand for the other battles. I would be surprised if they leave more.
  3. How aggressive the Iraqi Army is. How hard do they work to finish this off. There is probably a trade-off between time and casualties, so there is a reason to take their time. On the other hand, political leaders usually prefer quick victories.
  4. What is their level of competence.

Duration Estimate for Mosul

OK…..someone published a duration estimate for Mosul: Mosul Estimate

Not sure a Peshmerga Brigadier General is supposed to be providing this information to the press, but I assume it comes from some of their planning.

The main points:

  1. “The Battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS could take two months….”
  2. “…said it would likely take two weeks for advancing forces to enter the city….”

So, a two-week advance and a six-week mop up. This actually sounds pretty reasonable, so I will avoid any “home before the leaves fall” references.

Lots of other articles on that page on Mosul, so certainly worth perusing.

By the way, this is the Peshmerga Brigadier General, Sidwan Barzani, who also happens to be a nephew of the Kurdish president and a telecommunications millionaire: Millionaire commander protects Kurdish capital

 

 

Battle for Mosul II (continued)

qatarta_dbeth_ina

Washington Post article: kurds-pause-in-mosul-offensive-say-iraqi-army-will-advance

I gather there is some agreement negotiated in advance as to who is going to move into Mosul and who is not.

The Iraq Army’s 9th Division is reported on the outskirts of the town of al-Hamdaniyah (also known at Bakhdida), south of Mosul. This town is some 51 kilometers (32 miles) southeast of Mosul. Interesting place: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakhdida

The Federal Police reached the village of al–Houd, east of Mosul.

The Kurdish Peshmerga (operating to the east of Mosul) say they pushed the front line back 8 kilometers (5 miles). Their front line is now 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Mosul.

The most interesting paragraph in the article: “Turkey says the troops are training Iraqi fighters to help retake Mosul, and that they are there with the permission of the Iraqi government. Baghdad denies it granted permission and has ordered the Turks to withdraw — a call Ankara has ignored”

 

Battle for Mosul II

Day 2: One news channel last night claimed that the clearing of the city could take up to six months. That seemed excessive.

Basically, with ISIL being outnumbered and not having any real armored forces or artillery, they really have no way to contest the ground outside of Mosul. Like most of these other operations, I suspect that getting to and isolating the city won’t take that long (maybe a week or two). I also suspect that the majority of the ISIL fighters will withdraw and they will leave a holding force in Mosul. This is how these fights have happened several times before. Then there is a city-clearing operation, which is basically a mop-up operation. This could drag on for a while, depending on how aggressively it is pushed. The Second Battle of Fallujah in late 2004, primarily done by U.S. Army and Marines, took about six weeks. The Second Battle of Tikrit in 2015 also took around six weeks. The Battle of Ramadi in 2015-2016 took over ten weeks. The latest Battle of Fallujah in 2016 lasted about five weeks. Granted Mosul is bigger, but I can’t envision it will be that different. How many fighters is ISIL going to sacrifice to a lost cause?

Anyhow, article de jure on the war: Mosul offensive