Category Iraq

I gather it is day 1 of the Battle for Mosul. A CNN article on the subject: Mosul operation begins

A couple of things that caught my eye:

1. CNN reporter witnessed an advance of “…about 6 kilometers towards the city, with sporadic fighting erupting as they encountered pockets of ISIS fighters”
2. “But on the whole, he said, Peshmerga commanders felt they were encountering less resistance than they had expected.”

The rest is material that has sort of already been reported.

Also, on MSNBC their reporter in Irbil was stating that the Kurdish Peshmerga were “within striking distance” of Mosul, but I believe they already started pretty close to Mosul to begin with.

 

It has started, or at least they have announced they have started: Iraq announces start of offensive to retake Mosul

Would not be surprised if it was underway before they announced it. I suspect it will take longer than three days. We shall see if it will take longer than three weeks. I am assuming at this point, that it will be successful.

Of course, success does not mean peace, but it is definitely an improvement.

Looks like we are dropping leaflets over Mosul: Iraq drops leaflets over Mosul ahead of battle

Does this mean we are days away from starting the offensive?

 

The Economist article on the Battle for Mosul: Imminent offensive hopes to end the jihadists reign of terror

Nothing earthshaking here but:

1. “All but two if IS’s founding fathers are believed to have been killed…”
2.  “‘It will be a military walk in the park’ says an Iraqi security official” (the rest of the article doesn’t really buy into that).

Also a Voice of America article on Mosul: Plans take shape for Iraqi assault on Mosul

An interesting tid-bit: “Twelve brigades of Iraq forces, each made up of 800 to 1,600 troops, are preparing for the assault.”

 

Anyhow, the subject of Mosul briefly came up in the presidential debate last night.

 

 

 

Ran across this very optimistic article on Mosul: Uncertainly Roils Planning for Mosul Liberation

As the sub-headline notes, “ISIS fighters fleeing Iraq’s second largest city as coalition forces prepare for tough fight.” If ISIL fighters are fleeing the city….it may not be that tough of a fight.

A few notes:

1. U.S. Army asked for another 500 troops (I gather the real number is 615).
2. U.S. “authorities” say they will need at least 24,000 trained, well equipped Iraqi soldiers (this is less than the 30,000 reported in some articles).
3. Provides three specific accounts of recent ISIL losses in battle (from sources I don’t know). The two from air strikes that could easily be over-estimated, but the 40 lost from a counterattack in the Qayara area gets my attention. Was this a company-sized attack?
4. Approximately 20,000 “terrorists” are in Mosul.
5. There is a force of 1,000 “resistance fighters” in the city, meaning a Iraqi fifth column.

Article was written by someone named Douglas Burton who is: “…a former U.S. State Department official in Kirkuk, Iraq and writes news and commentary from Washington, D.C.”

Anyhow, unusually optimistic article. If true, Mosul could easily fall. We have seen before in Iraq and Afghanistan that some of these climatic fights are indeed anti-climatic as the defending force mostly bails out ahead of time.

Another article on Mosul: In battle for Iraq’s Mosul, many forces with many motives

The line that caught my attention: “Still, Iraq’s military is thousands of soldiers short of the estimated 30,000 troops needed to launch the assault, and the existing forces are stretched thin trying to hold other recaptured territory, particularly in western Anbar province.”

A series of articles over the last week or so that seems to have bits and pieces as to what are the strength of forces around Mosul. They are:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/16/politics/us-troops-mosul-base/index.html

http://time.com/4485212/iraq-mosul-isis-baghdadi-united-nations/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37353081

The estimates they provide include:

1. Could began next month (October)
2. There are 3,000 to 4,5000 ISIS fighters in Mosul.
3. Their forces are estimated at between 3,000 and 9,000
4. “…20,000 to 30,000 Iraqi troops expected to be used in the campaign….”
5. “…could take another two months.”
6. And there is the Pershmerga (Kurdish forces)
7. “…but might not enter central districts to avoid aggravating political sensitivities.”
8. And perhaps Shiite militias (the Hashid Shaabi)
9. The Peshmerga general has 23,000 men under his command

So….40,000 to 60,000 or more Iraqi, Peshmerga and Hashid Shaabi versus 3,000 to 9,000 ISIL fighters.

Our previous posts on the subject, dating back to July, include the following estimates (check the category “Iraq”)

1. The U.S. has 5,000 troops in Iraq.
2. 5,000 or so fighters inside Mosul.
3. There are also ISIL fighters outside of Mosul.
4. The Islamic States has roughly 19,000 to 25,000 fighters, about half in Iraq and half in Syria.
5. Most of the 10,000 to 12,000 in Iraq are concentrated around Mosul, in the Tal Afar area, and elsewhere in Nineveh Province.
6. The Anbar Sunnis can contribute at most 10,000 soldiers to the Mosul effort.
7. IS fighters in Mosul vary from a few thousand to not more than 10,000.
8. Retaking Mosul would require 80,000 men, of whom 15,000 are expect to come from Shiite militias.
9. Might happen in October
10. Campaign needs 20,000 to 30,000 troops
11. A few thousand police and 15,000 local fighters to hold land after assault.
12. Up to 10,000 jihadists are in the city.

I guess that is the best we can do from open sources right now.

 

Nothing new here, just a nice summary article: Retaking Mosul from ISIS

A few notes:

1. As many as 1 1/2 million residents could be affected by the battle (and thee is a link the to the U.N. report on the subject).
   1. There has been 90,000 displaced people since June
   2. One camp houses more than 36,000 people in a camp with tents for around 10,000.
2. We will be providing air support
3. We have 5,000 troops in Iraq
4. There is a slide show: Slideshow