Forbes on Russia’s Oil Reserves


Below is a Forbes article on Russia’s Oil Reserves

Russia’s Oil Production Won’t Falter

Not sure I am sold on their argument:

  1. Russia’s proven oil reserves have gone from 50 billion barrels in 2000, to 60 billion in 2008 to 80 billion now.
  2. Since 2000 they have pumped 56 billion barrels of oil (that is a staggering figure)!
  3. They are pumping around 11 million barrels a day (4 billion a year)
  4. Internal consumption is 3.5 million barrels a day (1.3 billion a year)

A little back of the envelope calculation says they have 20 years of oil left (based upon proven reserves). Of course, the point of the article is that proven reserves have expanded…but…the point not made is that they cannot expand forever. It is still a finite resource. Dinosaurs are not dying fast enough to replace current usage.

Russia is struggling to cover its bills with oil at $50 a barrel. One wonders how it would do in 20 years if they ran out of oil.

Russia Today tends to be as much of a propaganda organ as it is a news service. The original Russia Today article states: “Russia will run out of oil by 2044, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, with production beginning to decline in 2020.”

Anyhow, this is not my area of expertise, so would certainly appreciate some feedback as to the long-term problems Russia is facing here. At this point, I am finding myself having more faith in the Russia Today article than the Forbes article (which is really kind of sad).

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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One comment

  1. “A little back of the envelope calculation says they have 20 years of oil left”
    Kashagan offshore oil fields. I am sure they are going to find a way to get their hands on them (maybe some sort of “Intervention”).

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