The Yemen Raid

Hard to ignore this one. According to White House reports 14 members of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) were killed. We lost one person, ~~three~~ four injured and a $70 million Osprey. There were 10, 15, or 16 civilians killed. According to one report there were a total of 30 people killed (14 + 16 = 30?).

A few news reports:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/civilians-likely-killed-us-raid-yemen-pentagon-014654537.html

This article provides the figures of 16 civilians killed (8 women and 8 children)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/us-military-probing-more-possible-civilian-deaths-in-yemen-raid_us_5892bf5de4b0af07cb6b8930?

This article provides the estimate of 30 people killed at the site, including 10 civilians. It also say at least 15 civilians killed, according to U.S. military officials. “The military officials who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity said “a brutal firefight” killed Owens and at least 15 Yemeni women and children.” It also notes that “Some of the women were firing at the U.S. force, Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis told reporters.”

Also:

U.S. military officials….said, the attacking SEAL team found itself dropping onto a reinforced Al Qaeda base defended by landmines, snipers, and a larger than expected contingent of heavily armed Islamist extremists.

One of the three U.S. officials said on-the-ground surveillance of the compound was “minimal, at best.”

“The decision was made—to leave it to the incoming administration, partly in the hope that more and better intelligence could be collected,” that official said.

There were two Osprey’s used in the raid. One suffered engine failure (remember Operation Eagle Claw: Operation_Eagle_Claw).

The UK Guardian is more direct: http://theweek.com/speedreads/677442/trumps-disastrous-first-military-strike-previously-been-rejected-by-Obama

[Colonel John] Thomas said he did not know why the prior administration did not authorize the operation, but said the Obama administration had effectively exercised a “pocket veto” over it.

A former official said the operation had been reviewed several times, but the underlying intelligence was not judged strong enough to justify the risks, and the case was left to the incoming Trump administration to make it own judgment.”

Colonel Thomas is the Central Command spokesman:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-acknowledges-civilian-deaths-in-trump-authorized-yemen-raid/2017/02/01/e1f56c3c-e8e0-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html?utm_campaign=pubexchange&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=huffingtonpost.com&utm_term=.76e64d7a6149

Anyhow, I think people will be talking about this one for a while.

Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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