I got into doing posts on demographics on a whim. It was not something The Dupuy Institute or I have ever studied in any depth.
Still, it is hard not to notice that it is going to have a long-term impact on the world over the next decades. A look at the situation in 2020 vice 2050 shows the impact (population figures in millions):
………………………………….2020……………………….2050
United States…………………334…………………………389
China…………………………1,403………………………1,348
India…………………………..1,389………………………1,705
Russia………………………….143………………………….129
Japan…………………………..125………………………….107
Germany………………………..80……………………………75
Asia…………………………..4,598…………………………5,267
Africa…………………………1,340…………………………2,478
Europe…………………………740……………………………707
Latin American………………667……………………………784
and Caribbean
Northern America………….371……………………………433
Oceania…………………………42……………………………..57
All these figures are from the website: https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/2050/
Now, that site nicely also provides a population pyramid for each nation. One of the most unbalanced cases is Japan in 2050, where the population has been in decline since 2010:
In this case you have 46 million people age 60 or over, and only 44 million people between the ages of 20 and 59. Is this an economically sustainable scenario? It only gets worse over time. Does 80 become the new 30?
An older post on the same subject:
Japan’s population “pyramid” resembles a funeral urn!
A pointed observation.
You should read the 2019 UN report that just came out. https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/
Thanks.
No problem, look forward to a future article stating your thoughts on it.
Well, it kind of depends on what book I decide to work on next. Debating whether to do another WWII book or do a book called Future American Wars.
Well, it is 2019 and Germany is already approximating 83,000000 (Bundesamt), tendency rising. 42,000,000 women and 41,000,000 men.
Number of native inhabitants without a (inter) migration background is approx. (derived from the data of the individual states) 70,000,000. I would argue that the population may not decline that quickly, but we will rather observe a shift.
Here is a comparison of 1990 to 2016 https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Querschnitt/Demografischer-Wandel/_Grafik/_Statisch/DemografischerWandel_Altersaufbau.png?__blob=poster&v=3
Here is an interactive, animated version with a prognosis to 2060. https://service.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/#!
Also, Labour survey of Japan: https://www.stat.go.jp/english/info/news/pdf/20190529.pdf
What many tend to ignore is internal migration, when speaking about the economic structure and the future of a nation.
Trends in population: https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/pdf/2018all.pdf
Russia (in 2050) is probably going to be ~149, (swallowing East Ukraine and parts of Georgia).