The World War I Cases from the Division-level Database

There are several major periods of covered by this 752 cases division-level database, so let us separate them out. The periods covered are:

Era ………………………………………………Number of Cases

Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905)……………….3

The Balkan Wars (1912)……………………………1

World War I (1914-1918)…………………………25

Between the wars (1938)………………………….1

World War II (1939-1945)………………………576

Arab-Israeli Wars (1956 – 1973)………………..51

Gulf War (1991)………………,………………….15

 

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus the 752 Case Division-level Data Base 1904-1991

Now, both World War I and World War II are so massive that with a diligent research effort, thousands of engagements could be assembled. This does take time. Our post-World War II includes almost every significant division-level engagement from the Arab-Israeli fighting of 1956, 1967, 1968 and 1973. The Gulf War category includes every significant division-level engagement from 1991. Let us look at each of them in turn:

World War I and others (30 cases)

 

Force Ratio……………………Percent Attacker Wins……………..Number of Cases

0.67 to 0.99-to-1………………..29%…………………………………………..7

1.01 to 1.47-to-1………………..11……………………………………………..9

1.58 to 1.80-to-1………………….0……………………………………………..2

2.00 to 2.13-to-1………………..67……………………………………………..3

2.50 to 2.80-to-1………………..67……………………………………………..3

3.00 to 3.20-to-1………………..33……………………………………………..3

4.04 to 4.38-to-1………………..50……………………………………………..2

6.32-to-1………………………..100……………………………………………..1

 

Note that the attacker is winning to majority of the time at two-to-one odds and higher. The 33% wins in the three-to-one category consists of one victory and two drawn engagements (Bazentin Ridge from the Somme and First Dardanelles Landing from Gallipoli). In both of these cases the attacker advanced, although the engagement is coded as a draw. These three cases do not make a strong argument. This data collection is too small to draw any real conclusions from. The database could certainly be expanded to thousands of cases given time and effort. We also have a collection of engagements from World War I at brigade- and battalion-level and a number of engagements above division-level. These will be explored later.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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