Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 4

The latest update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus. This is not developing well. It looks like at least three countries (Italy, Iran and the United States) do not have control of the situation. On the other hand, China seems to have partly contained the virus. On 18 February, they were reporting 74.1K cases. As of today, they are reporting 80.6K cases. This is an expansion of around 6,500 cases or an average of 382 cases a day over the last 17 days. In the last 5 days, they have only added around 800 more cases (around 160 cases a day). So, while not completely under control, if the data is correct, this is a good effort considering that they have had over 80,000 cases. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world.

Country……………….Cases……..Deaths………..Rate

World Wide…….…….101,587……..3,460….………3.41%

S. Korea…………………6,593..………..42………….0.64%

Iran………………………4,747…………124………….2.61%

Italy………………………4,636…………197………….4.25%

Germany…………….……670…..….……0…………..0%

France………………….…577……………9…………..1.56%

Spain….……………….…386..…….……5……………1.30%

Japan……………………..381..…….……6.……….…1.57%

United States……..….….245..…….….14…….……..5.71%

Switzerland……………….214…..….……1…….……..0.47%

United Kingdom…………163……………2…….……..1.23%

Singapore……………….130……………0………..…..0%

Netherlands.………..…..128..…….……1…………….0.78%

Belgium….……………….109……………0….………..1.96%

Norway………………..….108..…………0…..…….….0%

Hong Kong…………..….106…..….……2….………..1.89%

Sweden…..…………..….101…..………0…..………..0%

Malaysia….…….……..….83…..………0…..………..0%

Bahrain…….…….…….….60…..………0…..………..0%

Australia…..……….…..….60..…………2…..………..3.33%

Kuwait…………………..…58..…………0…..………..0%

Austria…….…….………….55..…………0…..………..0%

Cruise Ships….…………696…..………6……………..0.86%

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/06/20 as of 1:33.03 PM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. Still the S. Korean mortality rate has increased over the last couple of days.
  2. Italy and Iran are well on their way to 5,000 cases and this number will continue to grow. Their mortality rate is now 4.25% & 2.61%
  3. The United States has the highest mortality rate at 5.71%. This could be because 1) the disease hit a particularly vulnerable population at a nursing home, and 2) we may be far from having this under control and have not properly located, tested and contained all the cases out there. Suspect we are looking at more than 1,000 cases in the U.S.

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 55,863 out of 101,587 cases (and 3,460 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China)

Other Notes:

  1. The cruise ship figure has been reduced in the CSSE database from 706 cases to 696. Not sure why.
  2. The cruise ship figure is interesting as it is a more contained environment. Japan quarantined 3,711 passengers and crew from the Diamond Princess. Of those 696 or 706 tested positive for Coronavirus and now six have died.
  3. The CSSE database is double counting some cases. For example there are 696 or 706 cases that tested positive on the cruise ships, 44 of them were shipped to the U.S. I believe their database counts those 44 among the 696 or 706 on the cruise ship and counts those 44 among the 245 in the U.S. If this is the case then the revised mortality statistics for the U.S. is 6.97% (removing those 44 cases).
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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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3 Comments

  1. “Still the S. Korean mortality rate has increased over the last couple of days.”

    OK, that is expected. The testing reaches a hard ceiling due to limited number of PCR cyclers and lab staff. With an increasing number of people getting infected per day the ratio newly infected people/ tested people decreases
    -> more infected people are not identified
    -> the (apparent) mortality increases.

    The real mortality, i.e. dead patients / (identified+unidentified infected people) is still the same IMHO.

  2. An interesting Piece I found. Hope the link works:

    The death rate is NOT a biological constant. It is not fixed to a pathogen. It reflects the severity of the disease in a particular context, at a particular time, in a particular population. The probability that one dies from a disease is not only dependent on the disease itself.

    https://threader.app/thread/1237017138184978433

  3. “The death rate is NOT a biological constant. It is not fixed to a pathogen. It reflects the severity of the disease in a particular context, at a particular time, in a particular population. ”

    At the moment there is no evidence that in China we have a different mortality (with enough tests) than in other countries.

    Try “This Week in Virology” or for Corona slightly better

    the podcast of Prof. Drosten (Charite Berlin) in German.

    https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast4684.html

    There is quite a lot of overlapping expert opinion in both which allows to sort out many issues and avoid chasing ghosts.

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