What is more important: Ukraine or Taiwan ?

A little geo-political discussion here: What is more important 1) to support the defense of Ukraine or 2) to support the defense of Taiwan?

 

Some stats:

                         Population                                       GDP                         Area
Ukraine         33,443,000 (2024 est.)    189.827 billion    603,628 sq.km (233,062 sq. miles)
Taiwan           23,894,394 (2022 est.)    751.930 billion      36,197 sq.km (13,976 sq. miles)

 

                           Per Capita GDP      Per Capital GDP (PPP)     Gini (2022/23)     HDI (2021/22)
Ukraine               5,759 (2025 est.)       20,756                                 25.6                 0.734
Taiwan                32,339 (2023 est.)    72,485                                  34.2                  0.926
United States    86,601 (2024 est.)    86,601                                 41.6                   0.927
                            
                             Active Personnel     Reserve Personnel           Budget
Ukraine            1,260,000                    2,700,000                            64.8 billion
Taiwan                  150,000                     1,657,000                            19.1 billion  

 

Now, probably the most significant factor is who are their neighbors. In the case of Ukraine, it borders the NATO countries of Romania, Hungary and Poland and the non-NATO countries of Russian, Belarus and Moldova (and Transnistria). One can argue that it is a gateway to NATO and the EU.   

Taiwan only borders China. It is a distance over water to the Philippines or South Korea or Japan. Much further to Australia and New Zealand. 

Therefore one can make the argument that Ukraine’s geo-political position is far more significant than that of Taiwan.

One can, of course, make the argument that they are both significantly important for U.S. national security.

 

 

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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