Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 6

Doing a Friday the 13th update even though nothing has drastically changed other than my kid’s school has been closed for the day. It is not under control in a number of countries, in particular Italy, Iran and the United States. If the reporting is correct, China does seem to have mostly contained the virus, and this may well be the case with South Korea. In China on 1 March they were reporting 79.8K cases. As of today, they are reporting 80.9K cases. This is an expansion of around 1,100 cases or an average of 85 cases a day over the last 13 days. For the last three days they have consistent reported 80.9K cases. So it is only growing by a dozen or so a day. Right now they are at 80,945. If the data is correct, then it appears that they have brought this under control even though they have had over 80,000 cases. So, it does appear possible to do. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world and the number of cases outside of China will soon exceed the number of cases inside of China.

Country…..……Cases…….Deaths…….Rate

World Wide…….135,318……4,981…..…3.68%

China.……….……80,945……3,176………3.92%

Italy…………..……15,113……1,016…..….6.72%

Iran………………..10,075………429…..….4.26%

S. Korea……………7,869………..66…..….0.84%

Spain…………….…3,864..………90………2.33%

Germany……………3,059…………6…..….0.20%

France………………2,879……..…61………2.12%

United States………1,701……..….40….….2.35%

 

Eight countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

Country…..……Cases…….Deaths…….Rate

Switzerland………..858……….…8…..…..0.93%

Denmark..……..….788….….……0……….0%

Norway…………….702..…………0……….0%

Japan………….……639..…….…16.………2.50%

Netherlands.………614..…….……5.……….0.81%

Sweden…..…….….599….….……1………..0.17%

United Kingdom..…593…….…..…8…..…..1.35%

Belgium….……..….399……………3…..…..0.75%

Austria……….….….302..…….……1……….0.33%

Qatar..……….….….262..….………0…..…..0%

Bahrain………..……189……………0…..…..0%

Singapore……….….187……………0…..…..0%

Finland….………..….155……………0…..…..0%

Malaysia….…………149……………0……….0%

Hong Kong….…..….134…..,….……4……….2.99%

Greece..….….………133……………1…..…..0.75%

Israel…….……….….131……………0…..…..0%

Australia…..….…..…128..….………3…..…..2.34%

Canada……..……….117……………1…..…..0.85%

Czech Rep………..…117……………0…..…..0%

Iceland………….……103…..…..……0………..0%

Slovenia….….………..89…….………0………..0%

UAE……..………….…85……….……0………..0%

Kuwait………….…..…80……….……0….…….0%

Egypt……………..……80……….……2………..2.50%

Iraq…..…………………79..…..………8………10.13%

Portugal.…..……..……78…..….……0…….…..0%

Brazil……….……..……77…..….……0…….…..0%

Thailand.…..……..……75…..….……1…………1.33%

India…….….……..……74…..….……1.…………1.35%

Romania…..……..……70…..….……0…..……..0%

Ireland…………….……70…..….……1.………….1.43%

San Marino….…….…..69…..……….5…..……..7.25%

Lebanon……….………66..….………3……..…..4.54%

Saudi Arabia…..…..….62…..….,……0…..……..0%

Poland………….….….58……………1…..……..1.72%

Philippines…..…….….52…..….……5…………..9.62%

Taiwan………..…….….50…..….……1…..……..2.00%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 50 cases so far:

Vietnam….……………38…..….……0…..……..0%

Indonesia….…..…..…34…..……..…2…..……..5.88%

Russia…….…………..34…..….……0…..……..0%

Palestine…..…….……26?……..……0…..……..0%

Pakistan………….……21…..….……0…..……..0%

Mexico…….….……….12……………0…..……..0%

Afghanistan….………….7……………0…..……..0%

New Zealand……….…..5…….…..…0…………..0%

Ukraine…………..……..1…..…….…0…………..0%

North Korea..…..……..0…..…….…0…………..0%

Syria……….………..…..0…..…….…0…………..0%

Diamond Princess……696…….…….7…………..1.01%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/13/20 as of 7:55.12 AM EST. I did try to do an update at 1:24 PM but it appears that the CSSE database has gaps in it. As of their 12:53.03 PM update they were missing California, Florida and other parts of the U.S. So they were only reporting 1,268 cases when I gather the number is around 1,700. They were only reporting 33 deaths (and none in California or Florida) while I gather the real number is at 41. I will do an update when they have sorted out their database (and Palestine is also still not listed). It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. Still the S. Korean mortality rate has continued to increase over the last few days.
    2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
  2. If mortality really is less than 1%, then it appears there are already over 90,000 in cases Italy and over 40,000 cases in Iran.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 69 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.21% infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
    2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 15,113 cases is third (0.025%)
    3. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 7,869 cases is fourth (0.015)
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database.
  5. Palestine was reported on Wednesday to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 69,645 out of 135,318 cases (and 4,981 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). This bottom line is to aiming to cross the other two lines over the next couple of weeks.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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7 Comments

  1. Didn’t the Italian textile industry rely on a substantial amount of foreign labour (partially undeclared), Chinese in particular?

  2. Northern Italy is a important tourists destination and destination of regular salesmen, people who change their hotel often within a few days.

    Workers stay at the same location for a longer period of time.

    ATM there is no indication that illigal workers are the issue.

    • Wasn’t the epicenter an industrial hub?

      Aside from that, street life in Chinese provinces seems almost medieval and the German figures seem awfully low, a case of (deliberate?) underreporting.

      The negative aspect of globalization, economic ties and high population density drive the infection rate.

      • “and the German figures seem awfully low, a case of (deliberate?) underreporting.”

        You should try try to think with your brain, even if it hurts, not with lower parts of your anatomy. Or more polite, you show in one short sentence that you completely struggle with the basics. Respect. :-))))

        You only prove that exponential functions are not your thing and you are unable to understand the influenec of testing levles, testing strategies….

        • The Chinese data suggests that it appears to be following a dimensional Verhulst, countermeasures and dampening influencing the recovery rate.

          The ratio of cases to deaths (e.g. in relation to population density, economic ties, intra and inter-migration and climate) appear too low for Germany, which seems to be sketchy. I doubt that the preparations were more thorough than those in Japan, Korea or France.
          I cast doubt over many cases, most countries even lack the institutions to address the issue or suffer from a lack of transparency.

          • As for “thinking with your lower parts”, I doubt this is anatomically possible.

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