Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 8

Well, it was not my intention for this to become a coronavirus blog….but hard to ignore and it is affecting our lives. The number of cases around the world have expanded noticeably since my blog post two days ago. There are now more reported cases outside of China than inside China.

China continues to report very few new cases. For the last five days they have consistently reported 80.9K to 81K cases. So it is only growing by a couple of dozen cases a day. Friday it was 80,945, Saturday it was 80,976, and as of Sunday night it was 81,020. This is 75 cases in the last three days or 25 cases a day. Right now, the there are more new reported cases in South Korea than there are in China. Does this mean that they can return to a more normal life in a couple of weeks?

 

Country……….Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……169,387….6,513…..…3.85%

China.……………81,020….3,213…..…3.97%

Italy………………24,747….1,809…..….7.31%

Iran………….…..13,938……..724…..….5.19%

S. Korea…….……8,162………75…..….0.92%

Spain……….….…7,844..……292………3.72%

Germany…….……5,813………13…..….0.22%

France………….…5,437….…127…..….2.34%

United States…….3,774………69…..….1.83%

Switzerland………2,200….…..14…..….0.64%

Denmark..……….1,739…………2…..….0.12%

United Kingdom…1,395……….35………2.51%

Norway……….….1,256..………3………0.24%

Netherlands.….…1,136.…..….20.….….1.76%

Sweden…..………1,032……..…3….…..0.29%

 

Fourteen countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

 

Country……..…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Belgium….…….….886…………4…..…..0.45%

Austria……………..860..…..……1……….0.12%

Japan………………839..…….…22.………2.62%

Malaysia….…..……428…………0……….0%

Qatar..………….….401..……..…0…..…..0%

Canada……..……..339…………1…..…..0.29%

Greece..….….…….331……….…4…..…..1.21%

Australia……………297..….….…3…..…..1.01%

Czech Rep……..…293…….……0…..…..0%

Israel…….…….…..251………….0…..…..0%

Portugal.…..….……245…..…..…0……….0%

Finland….…..……..244……….…0…..…..0%

Singapore…..……..226……….…0…..…..0%

Slovenia….………..219…..…..…1…..…..0.46%

Bahrain………….…214……….…0…..…..0%

Brazil……………….200…..………0……….0%

Iceland……………..180…..………0……….0%

Estonia…..…………171…….……0………..0%

Hong Kong…………149……..……4………2.11%

Philippines…….…..140………….12…..…..8.57%

Romania……………139…….……0…..…..0%

Ireland………………129………..…2.…..….1.55%

Egypt………….……126…….……2……….1.59%

Poland………………125…….……3……….2.40%

Iraq…..……….……..124..…….…10……….8.06%

Saudi Arabia……….118……………0………0%

Indonesia….………..117………..…5……….4.27%

Thailand.…..……….114………..…1……….0.88%

India…….….…..……113………..…2.………1.77%

Kuwait……….……….112..…………0….…….0%

San Marino….………109……………7………..6.42%

Lebanon………….…..99..……….…3………..3.03%

UAE…………….……..98………..…0………..0%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 98 cases so far:

 

Russia…….…………..63…..….……0…..……..0%

Taiwan………..…..….59…..……..…1….……..1.69%

Vietnam….……..….…56…..….……0…….…..0%

Pakistan………………53…..….……0…..……..0%

Mexico…….….……….43……………0…..……..0%

Palestine…..…….……26?…………..0…..……..0%

Azerbaijan..….…….…23……….……1…..……..4.35%

Afghanistan….…….…16……….……0…..……..0%

New Zealand…………..8………….…0………….0%

Ukraine…………….……3..….…….…1………….33.33%

North Korea..……..…..0…..….….…0……….…..0%

Syria……….……….…..0…..….….…0………..…..0%

Diamond Princess..…696……..…….7…………..1.01%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/15/20 as of 11:33.33 PM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is around or below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. The S. Korean mortality rate has continued to increase over the last few days and is nearing 1%
    2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
  2. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 180,000 in cases Italy and over 70,000 cases in Iran.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 109 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.32% infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
    2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 24,747 cases is third (0.04%)
      1. If they really have over 180,000 cases then we are looking at around 0.3%, a figure similar to San Marino (which makes sense).
    3. Iran is now fourth with population of 83,183,741 and 13,938 cases. This is 0.017% infected. If they have over 70,000 cases then this is 0.084% infected.
    4. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 8,162 cases is now fifth (0.016%)
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database. They are now listed as a subset of the Diamond Princess button, but I suspect they are still being counted in the U.S. totals.
    1. Also, Hong Kong’s 149 cases are also counted under China. I just choose to separate out Hong Kong because there is a political protest movement of some significance going on there.
  5. Palestine was reported on Wednesday to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

On the graph at the top of this post, the original top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 77,257 out of 169,387 cases (and 6,513 deaths). The new top line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China).

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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