Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 7

Could not update my post yesterday on the subject because the CSSE database was struggling to keep up with all the new reports. There has been an explosion of cases in Europe, although that may be due to better testing.

The coronavirus is now affecting my life, with my son’s school closed down until April 10, my wife’s business trip to Europe next week was cancelled, the NHL has cancelled all their games and the Australian Grand Prix has been cancelled. Now what? I guess I will do another blog post….about the virus.

China continues to report very few cases. For the last four days they have consistently reported 80.9K to 81K cases. So it is only growing by a couple of dozen cases a day. Yesterday it was 80,945, now it is 80,976, or 31 more cases. If the data is correct, then it appears that they have brought this under control even though they have had over 80,000 cases. So, it does appear possible to do. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world and the number of cases outside of China will soon exceed the number of cases inside of China.

Country…….…Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……149,293….5,609…..…3.76%

China.………..…80,976…..3,189…..…3.94%

Italy…………..…17,660…..1,266…..….7.17%

Iran……………..12,729…..…611…..….4.80%

S. Korea…………8,086………72…..….0.89%

Spain………….…6,023..……191………3.17%

Germany…………3,953……….8……….0.20%

France……………3,667………79……….2.15%

United States……2,177………47…..….2.16%

Switzerland………1,359………..8……….0.59%

United Kingdom…1,143……….21………1.84%

 

Ten countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

Country……..…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Norway………..….996..…………1………0.10%

Sweden…..……….944……..……2….…..0.21%

Denmark..…….…..836…..………0…..….0%

Netherlands.………804.………..10.….….1.24%

Japan………………725..……..…21.…..…2.90%

Belgium….…….….689……..……4…..…..0.58%

Austria……………..602..…………1……….0.17%

Qatar..………….….337..…………0…..…..0%

Australia……………250..……….…3…..…..1.20%

Finland….…..……..223……..……0…..…..0%

Bahrain………….…210……..……0…..…..0%

Singapore…..……..200……..……0…..…..0%

Canada……..…….198……………1…..…..0.51%

Malaysia….…..…..197……………0……….0%

Greece..….….……190……………1…..…..0.53%

Israel…….…….….164…………….0…..…..0%

Iceland……………156…..……..…0……….0%

Brazil………………151…..…..……0……….0%

Czech Rep……..…150……………0…..…..0%

Slovenia….……….141…..…..……0…..…..0%

Hong Kong…….….140…..,….……4………2.11%

Portugal.…..….…..112…..….……0……….0%

Estonia…..…………109……………0….…..0%

Romania……………102……………0…..…..0%

Iraq…..……….……101..……………9……….8.91%

Kuwait……….….…100..…….……0….…….0%

Philippines……..……98…..……..…8………..8.16%

Indonesia….……..…96…..……..…2………..2.08%

Lebanon………….…93..….…….…3………..3.23%

Egypt…………..……93……………2………..2.15%

Ireland………………90…..…..……1.……….1.11%

India…….….…..……87……….……2.…….…2.30%

Saudi Arabia……..….86…..….……0…………0%

UAE…………….….…85……………0….……..0%

Poland…………….….84……………2…….…..2.38%

Thailand.…..…………82………….…1……..…1.22%

San Marino….…..…..80…………….5…….…..6.25%

Vietnam….……..……53…..…..……0…….…..0%

Taiwan………..…..….53…..……..…1….……..1.89%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 50 cases so far:

 

Russia…….…………..47…..….……0…..……..0%

Pakistan………………28…..….……0…..……..0%

Palestine…..…….……26?…………..0…..……..0%

Mexico…….….……….15……………0…..……..0%

Afghanistan….……..…11……………0…..……..0%

New Zealand……….…..5………….…0…………..0%

Ukraine…………..……..1…..…….…1………..100%

North Korea..…………..0…..…….…0…………..0%

Syria……….………..…..0…..…….…0…………..0%

Diamond Princess……696…….…….7…………..1.01%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/14/20 as of 11:33.17 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is around or below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. Still the S. Korean mortality rate has continued to increase over the last few days and is nearing 1%
    2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
  2. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 120,000 in cases Italy and over 60,000 cases in Iran.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 80 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.24% infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
    2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 17,660 cases is third (0.029%)
      1. If they really have over 120,000 case then we are looking at around 0.2%, a figure similar to San Marino.
    3. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 8,086 cases is fourth (0.016)
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database.
  5. Palestine was reported on Wednesday to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 72,042 out of 149,293 cases (and 5,609 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). This bottom line is to aiming to cross the other two lines over the next couple of weeks.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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8 Comments

  1. Honestly speaking, I am dumbfounded by this virus hysteria. Its long-term impact on Western societies is minuscule compared to the real current disease of massive immigration from various Shitustans practising that 5-letter mental disease beginning with an I. It is quite funny that many governments absolutely refusing to tighten border control to prevent asylum shopping under false pretext are now willing to take drastic measures against something that does not present any true threat to Western cultures.

    • Despite a substantially greater chance of drowning, people tend to fear sharks when entering the water.
      Perhaps it would be wiser to give a different perspective and to compare annual mortality figures for influenza and traffic accidents.

  2. “Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.”

    The order of magnitude of test capacity is determined. The number of infected persons can vary by up to six orders of magnitude. Therefore, impact of testing will decrease.

    However, if you started with a high testing rate early you may have got many infected into quarantine. To reach the same testing rate three weeks later is almost useless.

    Hence, for a good discussion I would add number performed tests as crucial number. And as the situation in UK, very high test number with quite low number of diagnosed cases, indicates, testing strategy is also crucial. Austria gets a much better result with less tests.

    Hint: 200 dead patients in Italy only yesterday means they had 20000 infections per day three weeks ago, Italy may have around one million infected people today.

      • Iran has very limited test capacity, and obviously no willingness to admit this.

        The Russian number is most likely bogus, to test 75000 (!) and get only 60 positive people is nonsense in the Russian context.

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