Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 14

My plan for now is to keep updating this post every Tuesday. This may be my second to last update as these do take some time. It is the especially annoying with the slow creaky internet that has developed from everyone “working” at home. My time may be better spent on defense affairs and analysis of military history.

The number of cases continue to increase dramatically, as sadly are the number of deaths, and of significance, so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1% and keep rising. Germany is now at 2.47%. Now there still some people arguing that the actual mortality rate from Coronavirus is around 0.5%. There was an article recently that looked at antibody testing of Coronavirus, and discovered that 15% of the population in one German town had the virus, even though only 2% were reported as having the virus. The article is here: https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/

Now….this was a random sample of 1,000  residents, so it could just be wrong (90% confidence does mean that the date is wrong 10% of the time). And of course, it is one small town in one nation.  It does produce an infection mortality rate of 0.37%.

China continues to report very few new cases. I gather they are starting to relax their restrictions. What will happen now? If the virus is truly defeated and contained, then this should not be an issue. This was not the experience they had in Hong Kong. China has had 83,306 cases of which 78,195 recovered and 3,345 deaths. This is 588 more cases and 10 more deaths than last week. In contrast, the United States has 582,634 cases with only 44,319 recovered and a depressing 23,654 deaths. We are now 30% of the world’s reported cases.

 

Country……….Cases…..…Deaths….…Rate

World Wide……1,942,360….121,726…..…6.27%

United States…….582,634……23,654…..…4.06%

Spain………..……172,541……18,056……10.46%

Italy………..….…..159,516……20,465..….12.83%

France………….…137,877……14,967……10.86%

Germany…….……130,383……3,220…..….2.47%

United Kingdom……94,823…..12,107…….12.77%

China.………………83,306……..3,335.…….4.00%

Iran…………………74,877……..4,683………6.25%

Turkey…….……..…61,049……..1,296……..2.12%

Belgium….………….31,119……..4,157……13.36%

Netherlands.…….…27,580……..2,945……10.68%

Switzerland…………25,913……..1,162……..4.48%

Canada………………25,680……….823……..3.20%

Brazil…………………23,955….….1,361….…5.68%

Russia…….……..…21,102…….…170….….0.81%

Portugal.…..…….….17,448…….…567.….…3.25%

Austria……………..14,159………..384………2.71%

Israel…….……….…11,868………..117………0.98%

Sweden…..…….…..11,445………1,033………9.03%

Ireland………….……10,647……..…365.……..3.43%

S. Korea……….…..10,564…………222….…..2.10%

India…………………10,541……..…358.…..….3.40%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a ten thousand cases so far:

 

Japan…………………7,645…..…..143.….…..1.87%

Denmark..….…………6,691……….299…….…4.47%

Norway…………….…6,691..………139…….…2.08%

Australia………..……..6,494..……….61….……0.94%

Pakistan…………….…5,837……..….96……….1.64%

Saudi Arabia………….5,369………….73………….1.36%

Mexico…………………5,014…..…..332……..…6.62%

Indonesia….……..…….4,839……….459……..….9.49%

Ukraine……………..…3,372…..…….98……..…2.91%

Singapore…..…………3,252…………10……..…0.31%

Egypt…………..….…..2,190…..…..164…..……7.49%

Iceland…………..……1,711…….……8……..…0.47%

Bahrain……….……….1,522……….…7…….…..0.46%

Hungary……………….1,512……….122……..…8.07%

Iraq…..………………..1,378..……….78…..……5.66%

New Zealand…………1,366……….…9……..…0.66%

Hong Kong….….…….1,012……….…4……..…0.39%

Afghanistan…………..…714….…..…23………….3.22%

Andorra……….…….……646.…..……29……..….4.49%

Lebanon……..…….….…641..…..……21……..….3.28%

Taiwan………………..…393……….…6….………1.53%

San Marino…………….…371…….….32………….8.63%

Palestine…..……………..308…..…..…2……..….0.65%

Vietnam….………..….…266……….…0……..….0%

North Korea..…………..0……..…..…0…..….…0%

Syria……….……..……..0……..……..0…..….…0%

Yemen…………….……..0……..……..0….…..…0%

Libya……….…………….0………..…..0….…..…0%

Diamond Princess….712……………11……..….1.54%

 

There has been a ceasefire in Yemen because of the Coronavirus.

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 4/14/20 as of 10:41.26 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
    1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
    2. Needless to say, the figure of 0.5% would be better. If one does estimates based upon a 1% mortality rate, the numbers are kind of scary.
  2. Countries with high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting.
Share this:
Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
...
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
...
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
...
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

Articles: 1552

One comment

  1. Chris, here’s a “man on the street” observation (from Advancing Native Missions) of the early days of the virus situation in Wuhan:

    It was early February and the tenth day of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. A group of local Christians put on yellow suits and face masks, grabbing their gospel tracts and a supply of masks. They ventured into the streets to share Jesus despite the contagion and the city’s quarantine. The streets were filled with desperate people in a panic. Masks were now the most valuable thing in Wuhan. The Christians gave out free masks and handed out Christian literature. Without fear, they shared words of comfort and hope from God. They were witnesses of peace in front of unbelievers in a frightening situation.

    A police officer who was monitoring the crowds approached one of the women in the group. He listened to the gospel and with gratitude took a mask. Soon after, another officer came up for a tract and a mask. The first policeman returned, asking for a set for a friend. Sometime later, four more officers came.

    These were the same government officials who had been vigorously attempting to curb the message of salvation in Christ in that region. They had arrested believers for spreading the gospel. But as the officers saw their willingness to risk their own health, even their lives, to serve others, the Christians gained their respect as never before. The yellow of their protective suits became the most beautiful and trusted color in the city.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *