Coronavirus in the DC area – update 11

Just doing my weekly update of this coronavirus post. The last three weeks have been encouraging as the number of cases has declined from around 8,000 to 9,000 new cases a week to around 7,000 new cases three weeks ago to near 5,000 cases two weeks ago and down near 3,000 new cases over this last week. So far, it does not look like a real negative impact from all the protests. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:33:26 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE

The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. I list the number of cases from last week followed by the number of cases this week and then the current number of reported deaths. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….9,474……9,847……..523
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……2,280…….2,372….….124
Alexandria VA……………160,530……2,125……..2,175..….…48
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…..12,746…..13,153…..….429
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………..56….…….58……..….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.….…….69………..68….…….7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850.…….3,180……3,458………80
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011.…… 6,376……6,654…..…127
Manassas…………………..41,641….….1,262……1,320……….14
Manassas Park………….…17,307……….360…..….390…..…….6
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….831..……906………….5
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144………194………215….……..0
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…..13,124….13,819…..….672
Prince Georges C., MD……909,308…..16,753….17,611….…..648
Total……….…….………..5,365,425.…..68,830….72,046..….2,690

The number of new cases the previous week dropped to 5,384 and this week down to 3,216 new cases. It was 9,301 new cases four weeks ago, 8,591 new cases three weeks ago, 7,094 new cases two weeks ago and 5,384 new cases last week. We shall see if it holds. This is a 5% increase since last week. The number of deaths increased this last week by less than a hundred.

The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.73%, which is high. It either means lots of vulnerable people, or the number of cases of infection are being significantly underreported. The population known to be infected is 1.34%. or one confirmed case for every 74 people. It may be that over 2% of the area has been infected.

The Washington DC statistical area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places and they were not listed in the Governor of Virginia’s order extending the lock-down in Northern Virginia.

Of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 293 confirmed cases (260 last week) and 8 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 161 confirmed cases (142 last week) and 3 deaths. Montgomery County, VA is 97 cases this week (96 last week) and 2 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen if you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA and Virginia Tech, two large universities located in a more rural environment. Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area, has 25 cases (25 last week) and 1 death.

Below are the case charts by day for DC, Maryland and Virginia (for the entire state in the case of Maryland and Virginia). They all show a positive pattern:

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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