Weekly update number 32 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 7,348 new cases. Last week there were 4,256 new cases. Over a month ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. This is sliding out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.
In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is in trouble with 35K new cases reported for yesterday. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had. It has gotten bad all across Europe, in the UK (20K cases yesterday), France (61K on 6 Nov), Spain (21K on 9 Nov), Germany (27K) and Russia (21K) The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 136K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (43 cases on 8 Nov), Japan (1,296), South Korea (146), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (11), Singapore (9), Australia (2) and New Zealand (1).
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 nineteen weeks ago. It has since increased and appears to be heading back to its old level.. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:25 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….17,524……18,379……..657
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..4,813……..5,130……..155
Alexandria VA……………160,530………4,377……..4,559………76
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….24,458..….25,791…….609
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….78…………82……….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..165…..……178……….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….8,105……..8,560……134
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……14,768..…..15.462……227
Manassas…………………..41,641…..……2,066…..…2,116…….28
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….…….662………..676……..8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,480.….…2,661…….22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….603………..624…..…6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….26,398…..27,969……899
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….33,488…..35,146……876
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..139,985….147,333…3,712
This is a 5% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.52%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were 61 new fatalities reported out of 7,348 new cases. This is a mortality rate of less than 0.8%, although there is a lag between increases in reported cases and increases in mortality. The population known to have been infected is 2.75% or one confirmed case for every 36 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.
Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,224 cases (3,146 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,933 cases (1,827 last week) and 29 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA has 1,697 confirmed cases (1,626 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,682 confirmed cases (1,619 last week) and 24 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last few weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.
Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 3,295 cases this week (3,009 last week) and 7 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) is still running around 1,000 cases a day (1,435 yesterday) and it seems to be increasing.
Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 463 cases (396 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.
Everyone probably associates with everyone on those islands (and they are trapped together along a single commercial artery); so, even if vacationers have gone home back to report their own cases of COVID-19 in their own counties, the locals probably report the local cases to Dare County. Anyway, that’s what I dare to posit. What I’ve suggested appears to be the case if you look at Dare County’s data for November during which all the sick were residents (whereas some were non-residents in October): https://www.darenc.com/departments/health-human-services/coronavirus
By the way, Chris, the clock-in timer on you post hasn’t jumped back an hour.
Amusing.
It all depends on what is coded as a virus case – CDC says hospitals and doctors get a 20% bonus if they count a death as due to the virus – so money counts
While that is true, as USA Today notes for Senator Scott Jensen: “Jensen said he did not think that hospitals were intentionally misclassifying cases for financial reasons,. But that’s how his comments have been widely interpreted and paraded on social media,.”
See: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/