Coronavirus in the DC area – update 33

Weekly update number 33 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 8,625 new cases. Last week there were 7,348 new cases and the week before 4,256 new cases. Around two months ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. This is sliding out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is in trouble with 32K new cases reported for yesterday. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had. It has gotten bad all across Europe, in the UK (20K cases yesterday), France (46K), Spain (20K), Germany (26K) and Russia (22K)  The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 162K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (13 cases), Japan (1,690), South Korea (313), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (5), Singapore (6), Australia (19) and New Zealand (3). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 twenty weeks ago. It has since increased and appears to be heading back to its old level.. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 1:26 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….18,379…..19,465……..665
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………5,130……5,512……..156
Alexandria VA……………160,530………4,559……4,768………76
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..25,791….27,270….….611
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………..82………85…………7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………178……..190…….….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….…..8,560……9,020……..136
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….15,462…16,283…..…230
Manassas…………………..41,641…..……2,116…..2,171……….28
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….…….676……..686…………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,661……2,851……….22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….624…..…640…………6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….27,969.…29,833……..916
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….35,146….37,184….…899
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..147,333…155,958….3,768

This is a 6% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.42%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were 56 new fatalities reported out of 8,625 new cases. This is a mortality rate of more than 0.6%, although there is a lag between increases in reported cases and increases in mortality. The population known to have been infected is 2.91% or one confirmed case for every 34 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,296 cases (3,224 last week) and 36 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 2,017 cases (1,933 last week) and 31 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,762 confirmed cases (1,697 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,742 confirmed cases (1,682 last week) and 26 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last few weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 3,502 cases this week (3,295 last week) and 10 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 2,125 cases yesterday. This is sad and is on the increase. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down. Now it is definitely going up. 

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 554 cases (463 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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One comment

  1. Chris, for the sake of convenience, you might want to include “per capita” numbers for cases, deaths, etc. since you are contrasting various regions and countries. Just a thought.

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