Coronavirus in the DC area – update 34

Weekly update number 34 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 11,293 new cases. This is the largest weekly increase I have seen since I started tracking this for the DC area. Last week there were 8,625 new cases, the week before there were 7,348 new cases and the week before that 4,256 new cases. Around two months ago we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up. This has slide out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 23K new cases reported for yesterday. It has gotten bad all across Europe, in the UK (11K cases yesterday), France (10K), Spain (12K), Germany (16K) and Russia (24K). These figures are noticeably lower than they were last week for every country listed except Russia. The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 173K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (85 cases), Japan (1,232), South Korea (382), Taiwan (1 on 11/23), Vietnam (4), Singapore (18), Australia (10) and New Zealand (8). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 twenty-one weeks ago. It has since increased and appears to be heading back to its old level.. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:25 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….19,465……20,516……..677
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………5,512……..5,994…….157
Alexandria VA……………160,530.…..…4,768…..…5,106…..…77
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..27,270……29,566..….620
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……..…..85…………97………..7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……..…190……….205……….8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………9,020…….9,717…….142
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011….…..16,283…..17,484…….236
Manassas…………………..41,641….……2,171….…2,250……..28
Manassas Park………….…17,307…………..686………713…….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………..2,851……3,134..……22
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.………..640………674…….…6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….29,833……32,005……936
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….37,184…..39,790……913
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..155,958….167,251…3,837

This is a 7% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.29%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. Last week, there were 69 new fatalities reported out of 11,293 new cases. This is a mortality rate of more than 0.6%, although there is a lag between increases in reported cases and increases in mortality. The population known to have been infected is 3.12% or one confirmed case for every 32 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptying out this week due to Thanksgiving.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,397 cases (3,296 last week) and 37 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 2,176 cases (2,017 last week) and 35 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,823 confirmed cases (1,762 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,840 confirmed cases (1,742 last week) and 26 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 3,806 cases this week (3,502 last week) and 15 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 2,544 cases yesterday. This is sad and is on the increase. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down. Now it is definitely going up. 

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 597 cases (554 last week) and 4 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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