Coronavirus in the DC area – update 37

Weekly update number 37 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 15,323 new cases. Last week there were 15,790 new cases, the week before there were 10,892 new cases and six weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. This has slide out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 15K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (19K yesterday), France (12K), Spain (10K) and Russia (26K). It is still growing in Germany (34K, up from 29K last week). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 198K new cases yesterday, slightly down from 216K new cases last Tuesday. This is in contrast to places like China (110 cases), Japan (1,672), South Korea (1,078), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (3), Singapore (16), Australia (12) and New Zealand (4). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases twenty-four weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 2:26 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….23,854…25,602..…..720
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………7,062…..7,594……166
Alexandria VA……………160,530.…..…5,950…..6,367……..82
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….34,996…37,693..….648
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………..128……..146………6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..232…….250…..…10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..……11,270…12,193..….154
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011….….20,080…21,678..….244
Manassas…………………..41,641….……2,440….2,612…..…29
Manassas Park………….…17,307…………776…….836…..….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….3,811…..4,207…….23
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.………..795…….860……….8
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..37,194…40,500..1,039
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..45,345…48,718..1,007
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……193,933..209,256..4,114

This is a 8% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.98%. Last week, there were 101 new fatalities reported out of 15,323 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.66%. The population known to have been infected is 3.90% or one confirmed case for every 26 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Many of the students are now home until mid-to-late January.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,905 cases (3,680 last week) and 40 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 3,035 cases (2,667 last week) and 38 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 2,036 confirmed cases (1,958 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 2,351 confirmed cases (2,161 last week) and 28 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000. Apparently college students are more responsible than many adults. 

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 4,565 cases this week (4,260 last week) and 30 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Keep in mind all these increases in this towns is occurring while the universities are not in session. It is currently growing faster than it was when they were.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 3,160 cases yesterday. Last week it was 3,860 and the week before 2,228 cases. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 812 cases (744 last week) and 4 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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