Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 38

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

Weekly update number 38 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to update my picture to something very current.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 12,087 new cases. While this is still very high, it is an improvement. Last week there were 15,323 new cases, the week before that 15,790 new cases, the week before that there were 10,892 new cases and seven weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 13K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (37K yesterday, was 19K a week ago), France (12K), Spain (11K) and Russia (28K). It is still growing in Germany (36K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 195K new cases yesterday, slightly down from 216K new cases two Tuesdays ago. This is in contrast to places like China (78 cases), Japan (2,658), South Korea (1,090), Taiwan (4), Vietnam (6), Singapore (29), Australia (18) and New Zealand (7). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases twenty-five weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:22 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….25,602…..26,900……..744
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………7,594……8,121……..169
Alexandria VA……………160,530.…..…6,367……6,782……….84
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….37,693…..40,483……..660
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………..146……….157……..…6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..250………281……….10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..……12,193..…12,925…….154
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011….….21,678..…23,041…….247
Manassas…………………..41,641….……2,612…….2,708……..29
Manassas Park………….…17,307…………836…..…869………..8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….4,207……4,578……..23
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.………..860………941…..….8
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..40,500….42,551…1,069
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..48,718….51,006…1,042
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…….209,256..221,343..4,253

This is a 6% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.92%. Last week, there were 139 new fatalities reported out of 12,087 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.15%. This increased mortality rate is almost certainly driven by people who got ill several weeks ago, so in sense, the figures are now catching up from the lower mortality rates over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 4.13% or one confirmed case for every 24 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

One notes a difference in the statistics between Washington DC and Fairfax County. Washington DC has 1 case per 26 people while it has 1 death per 944 people. Fairfax Country has 1 case per 28 people while it has 1 death per 1,744 people. I suspect the primary (but not the only) driver of these differing statistics is that DC is under-reporting the number of people infected.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Many of the students are now home until mid-to-late January.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 4,098 cases (3,905 last week) and 40 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 3,386 cases (3,035 last week) and 38 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 2,089 confirmed cases (2,036 last week) and 34 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 2,509 confirmed cases (2,351 last week) and 29 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000. Apparently college students are more responsible than many adults. 

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 4,853 cases this week (4,565 last week) and 32 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Keep in mind all these increases in this towns is occurring while the universities are not in session. It is currently growing faster than it was when they were, reinforcing my point that college students appear to be more responsible than many adults.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 3,591 cases yesterday. Last week it was 3,160 and the week before 3,860 cases. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has 888 cases (812 last week) and 5 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

Share this:
Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
...
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
...
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
...
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

Articles: 1516

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *