Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 40

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

Sorry for the late posting today, but was a little distracted by events in DC. They were not always socially distancing.

Weekly update number 40 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 16,305 new cases. Last week it was 16,418 new cases, the week before 12,087 cases, as the week before that there were 15,323 new cases. Nine weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 15K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (61K yesterday), France (21K), Spain (24K), Germany (18K) and Russia (24K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 230K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (64 cases), Japan (4,946), South Korea (839), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (7), Singapore (28), Australia (19) and New Zealand (4 on 1/04). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases twenty-seven weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:22 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….28,758…..30,482……806
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..……8,786…….9,420……184
Alexandria VA……………160,530…..…7,231……..7,676……..89
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..43,434…..46,776…….691
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.….…..174……….194……….6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….…..304………311………10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…13,996….14,973….…161
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….25,247….27,297….…263
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….2,867…..3,025…..….29
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……926….….972……..…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….….5,099……5,684…..….26
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,021……1,106……….11
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…..45,791…..48,864…..1,157
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…..54,127….57,286…..1,111
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…237,761..254,066…..4,552

This is a 7% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.79%. This last week, there were 125 new fatalities reported out of 16,305 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.77%. The population known to have been infected is 4.74% or one confirmed case for every 21 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Many of the students are now home until mid-to-late January.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 4,593 cases (4,343 last week) and 46 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 4,313 cases (3,842 last week) and 48 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 2,303 confirmed cases (2,182 last week) and 34 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 3,009 confirmed cases (2,756 last week) and 33 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.  

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 5,398 cases this week (5,138 last week) and 43 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Keep in mind all these increases in this towns is occurring while the universities are not in session. It is currently growing faster than it was when they were.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,377 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,122. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,167 cases (996 last week) and 5 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

 

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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