Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 46

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

Well, in general the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined and seems to be in continual decline: locally, in the United States, and internationally. Still, it is high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 46 on the coronavirus in the DC area.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by only 7,566 new cases. There were 10,871 new cases last week. Four weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Fifteen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We still look to be about six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone as this process is going a little slower than it should (in my opinion).

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 10K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (11K yesterday) although it continues to drop from its high of 68K new cases a day on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (20K), Spain (10K), Germany (6K) and Russia (13K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 62K new cases yesterday. This is improvement for a high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (15 cases), Japan (1,810), South Korea (621), Taiwan (1 on 2/12), Vietnam (42), Singapore (9 on 2/15), Australia (6) and New Zealand (3). Still, the number of new cases is down almost everywhere, which is good news. 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-three weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:22 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….38,438….…39,180……..985
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..12,364……12,684……..210
Alexandria VA……………160,530………9,798……10,056……..104
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……62,445…….64,355…….834
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….318…………331……..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..……….448…………468……….12
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……21,808……..22,351…….195

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……37,184….….38,197…….328
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….3,866………3,930………33
Manassas Park………….…17,307….….1,101……….1,110…….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..8,727……….9,252……..54
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,668……….1,718……..14
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…..61,001.……..61,942…1,382
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…..70,244..…….71,402…1,294
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….329,410…….336,976…5,460

 

This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.62%. This last week, there were 183 new fatalities reported out of 7,566 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 2.42%, but the higher figure is clearly a result of the declining infection rate while the mortality figures are lagged. The population known to have been infected is 6.28% or one confirmed case for every 16 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions a the beginning of February.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,591 cases (5,504 last week) and 68 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,934 cases (5,796 last week) and 77 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 3,168 cases (2,883 last week) and 40 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 4,319 cases (4,132 last week) and 39 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker.  They are showing an increase in new case, with there being 40 to 56 new cases a day last week and there being 117 new cases on 2/15. They have increased restrictions on campus in response.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 6,787 cases (6,581 last week) cases and 89 deaths (29 deaths these last four weeks).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 7,035 cases (6,685 last week) and 71 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,770 cases yesterday. Last week is as  3,291 cases. Three weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,820 cases (1,776 last week) and 8 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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