Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 47

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

Well, in general the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has continued at a lower rate but we do not see a continual decline everywhere. It did decline locally, but not for all of the United States. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 47 on the coronavirus in the DC area.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by only 5,977 new cases. There were 7,566 new cases last week. Five weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Sixteen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We still look to be about six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone as this process is going a little slower than it should (in my opinion).

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 10K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (10K yesterday) although it has dropped from its high of 68K new cases a day on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (20K), Spain (7K), Germany (6K) and Russia (12K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 71K new cases yesterday. This is improvement for a high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (23 cases), Japan (1,103), South Korea (439), Taiwan (1 on 2/20), Vietnam (11), Singapore (14 on 2/19), Australia (2) and New Zealand (2). Still, the number of new cases is down almost everywhere, which is good news.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-four weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:23 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….39,180……39,844…..998
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..12,684……12,974…..217
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….10,056……10,229…..110
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……64,355……65,718…..880
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….331……….342……….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..……….468……….482……..13
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….22,351……22,816…..207

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….38,197…….38,920….368
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..3,930………3,971……36
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,110….…..1,116……..8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..9,252….…..9,418……65
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,718….…..1,747…….19
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……61,942…….62,767..1,399
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……71,402…….72,609..1,314
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….336,976…..342,953…5,642.

 

This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.65%. This last week there were 181 new fatalities reported out of 5,977 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 3.03%, but the higher figure is clearly a result of the declining infection rate while the mortality figures are lagged. The population known to have been infected is 6.39% or one confirmed case for every 16 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions a the beginning of February.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,652 cases (5,591 last week) and 71 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,991 cases (5,934 last week) and 86 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,529 cases (3,168 last week) and 41 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 4,759 cases (4,319 last week) and 48 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. Three weeks ago they recorded 82 new case from Monday through Friday. Two weeks ago they recorded 238 new cases from Monday through Friday. Last week it was 737 new cases from Monday through Friday. Needless to say, they have put in more stringent lock-down procedures as the number of cases have been in decline since a peak of 229 new cases on 2/16. A number of students are blaming this spike on the fraternities conducing “rush.” This has now resulted in increased restrictions for everyone. There is a lesson in here somewhere.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported  6,867 cases (6,787 last week) cases and 105 deaths (45 deaths these last five weeks).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 7,478 cases (7,035 last week) and 73 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,769 cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,770 cases. Four weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,838 cases (1,820 last week) and 8 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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