Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 50

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

In general the number of cases from coronavirus remains the same as it was last week. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 50 on the coronavirus in the DC area.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 5,549 new cases. There were 5,774 new cases last week. Eight weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Nineteen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 20K new cases reported for yesterday, the same as last week. The UK is actually bringing it under control for a change (5K yesterday). Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (36K), Spain (5K), Germany (18K) and Russia (9K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 54K new cases yesterday. This is about the same as last two weeks (55K and 57K) but an improvement from the high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (22 cases), Japan (1,142), South Korea (469), Taiwan (5 on 3/15), Vietnam (3), Singapore (11), Australia (17) and New Zealand (2).

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-seven weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:25 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….41,910.….42,730…….1,044
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….13,481……13,729……….243
Alexandria VA……………160,530……10,468……10,643…..….129
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..67,945……69,041…….1,040
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………360….…….370…………10
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………501………..507…………16
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……23,589……24,197…..….267

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….40,055……40,625………471
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..4,054……..4,089.………44
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,129…..…1,145…….…12

Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..9,715…..…9,858…….…69
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,798……..1,825…….…22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……64,273……65,053……1,446
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……74,704……75,719…….1,356
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..353,982….359,531…….6,169

 

This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.72%. This last week there were 69 new fatalities reported out of 5,549 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.24%. The population known to have been infected is 6.70% or one confirmed case for every 15 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville. Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and VCU as they are located in or near major population centers.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,961 cases (5,822 last week) and 95 deaths (up 24 in the last three weeks), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,187 cases (6,135 last week) and 104 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,738 cases (3,679 last week) and 49 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,081 cases (4,979 last week) and 77 deaths (up 29 in the last three weeks). This is where UVA is located.

For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (3/15) there were only 3 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 6,986 cases (6,948 last week) cases and 141 deaths (81 deaths these in the last eight weeks).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 8,460 cases (8,133 last week) and 91 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,276 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,537 cases. Seven weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,906 cases (1,878 last week) and 8 deaths.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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