Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 62

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 62 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) declined to 477 new cases over the week. Last week it was 916 new cases. Twenty weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe also seems to be slowly bringing the virus under control. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 2K new cases for yesterday. The UK has had an upswing, reporting 6K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France has the fourth highest number of cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Yesterday they reported for France 6K new cases. Their death count of 110,302 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 128,118 dead in a population of 66.8 million, Italy with 126,690 deaths in a population of 59.2 million or Belgium with 25,051 deaths out of a population of 11.6 million. These three countries have a higher reported mortality rate than the United States (598,333 deaths in a population of 331.7 million). Don’t know for certain if they are the only three countries with a higher mortality rate, but I think so. The new case count yesterday for Spain is 3.5K, for Germany it is 2K and for Russia 10K new cases a day. Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.7 million) had 15K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (19, but see link below), Japan (1,883), South Korea (601), Taiwan (203), Vietnam (195), Singapore (9), Australia (5) and New Zealand (4). Again, these are daily rates. Japan’s rate is pretty high for a country about to host the Olympics.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 9:23 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,011……49,119…1,137
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,291……15,295…..257
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,837……11,846…..137
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,010…..77,028..1,105
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….431………430………8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….567………567……..20
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……..27,940…..27,986……280
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,438.….45,510……499
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,311…….4,311…….47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,217……..1,218…….11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,428……11,456….…81
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,137……..2,140…….25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……70,935…..70,995…1,613
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……85,089…..85,218…1,580
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….402,642…403,119….6,800

 

The Mortality Rate is 1.69%. There were 24 fatalities in the last week compared to 477 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 5.03% (which is high, but probably caused by the declining number of reported new cases). The population known to have been infected is 7.51% or one confirmed case for every 13 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I gather that the number vaccinated (at least one shot) at least 80% for this area and if we add to this the number previously infected we are looking at around 90% or more of the population partially or fully protected.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 182 new cases yesterday. Last week it was 59 cases. Nineteen weeks ago it was 4,707. 

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,156 cases (2,147 last week) and 10 deaths.

Concerning China: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-returns-to-its-strict-covid-restrictions-to-fight-a-new-outbreak/ar-AAKRR89?ocid=msedgntp

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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